Official Tmobile-Sprint merger discussion thread

[dkyeager]

My Neville focused notes from quarterly call (skipped over financial):

- CEO - T-Mobile the fastest growing internet service provider in 4th quarter (better than cable).

- n41 will increase area coverage 5 fold by end of 2023.

- two years ahead of duo in 5g

- 40% of WISP customer are new to T-Mobile

- 64% of Sprint customers are now on T-Mobile network

- Our WISP customers 3 times happier than cable customers

- significant step down in capex next year

- WISP especially attractive for small businesses.

Neville:

- T-Mobile plans on a single radio for c-band and 3.45Ghz rather than AT&T's 2 radios kind of integrated together as we move into 2023 for deployment in capacity use (41 minutes).

- 260 million pops by end of 2022 300 million by end of 2023.

- Roaming partners will be few and far between.

- This is T-Mobiles time.  Really wants to push the envelope and gap the competition (50 minutes). 

- Increase coverage and in-building.

- Want to upgrade a high volume of Sprint sites adding coverage and capacity in 2022. 

CEO etc:

- Going after small towns and rural markets for consumers and businesses.

- We think wireless industry is right on C-band versus GPS altimeters and will be validated.

- Fixed wireless: doing well in small town America.  Majority is coming from suburban and urban areas, especially cable and fiber. 

- $60 Billion in share buy backs in 23, 24 and 25.

- Big opportunity in small markets and rural areas.  Currently 15% market share.

 

 

source:

 

[Trip]

8 hours ago, dkyeager said:

- 64% of Sprint customers are now on T-Mobile network

- Roaming partners will be few and far between.

 

- significant step down in capex next year

 

- We think wireless industry is right on C-band versus GPS altimeters and will be validated.

 

- Fixed wireless: doing well in small town America.  Majority is coming from suburban and urban areas, especially cable and fiber.

- Going after small towns and rural markets for consumers and businesses.

- Big opportunity in small markets and rural areas.  Currently 15% market share.

Wanted to post feedback on these points in particular, which I've rearranged to be grouped together.

1) I think it's telling that a significant minority, myself included, has more or less ignored T-Mobile's pleas to move to T-Mobile SIMs and new devices, and are waiting until the last possible moment.  In my mind, it's a sign that there's some combination of crummy service and insufficient discounts leading to people just riding the ship down.  For me, it's both.  I'm very happy with my LG G8X and don't want to give it up--other phones don't have the same key features, and LG doesn't make devices anymore.  If you want me to replace it, you're going to have to do better than a bunch of bill credits for a budget phone.  In addition, the service definitely leaves something to be desired, and I still have been unable to determine if T-Mobile roaming will continue to work for me, something which is not encouraging when it comes to statements like "roaming partners will be few and far between."  Way to scare off the people who are already skeptical; if US Cellular roaming stops working, I literally cannot remain their customer, and end up forced to AT&T by default, I believe, as they do have a US Cellular roaming agreement.

2) Either they'll have to impress even more with site conversions and expansion this year, or a step down in capex with an insufficient build-out is going to lead to problems.  As fast as they've been moving, there's a ton of work still to do, especially in the Shentel region.  I looked at Albemarle County's permits a few days ago and only found two or three for conversions, and Shentel has dozens of sites that don't overlap with T-Mobile.  And that's almost a month into the new year.  It's entirely possible they could get it all done by December 31, but there will certainly be a gap after July 1 when the Sprint network (tentatively) shuts down and whenever T-Mobile gets their act entirely together.  Beyond the Shentel region, they've also not touched any of the power line sites around here, and many of the building-mount sites with shrouds are untouched as well, all of which includes apparent Sprint keep sites.  One with shrouds was touched, but the B41 antennas were installed without shrouds.  I can drive less than five minutes from my home near Alexandria, VA to a different residential area and my B71-locked phone will go to "No Service" because all the surrounding power line sites are untouched even with respect to 600.  Some of them don't even have 700.

3) Well of course the wireless industry is right.  The FAA, in three weeks, managed to certify 90% of aircraft altimeters.  It was all the FAA refusing to do their job and hoping to screech their way out of ever doing it.  You know, while pretending that 40 other countries hadn't already made it work just fine.

4) They say they want to go after small markets and rural areas, but the service in those areas is lackluster at best.  I don't see them fixing all of that this year.  I've explicitly been told that the county where I grew up has one site in planning, which is on hold due to the merger, and any further improvement won't happen before 2024.  ("The pain will continue for the foreseeable future.")  I've concluded that at least five more sites are needed to make T-Mobile viable over US Cellular in the county.  And, of course, these are areas where the home Internet service would actually provide people with a first option beyond a cellular hotspot, but their service is so bad in these places that it won't work.  Instead, they're going after customers in urban areas where the service is nice, but not necessary.

- Trip

[bill875]

I completely agree about the roaming comment.  Sprint has superior roaming coverage and T-Mobile needs all the roaming can get to compete with Verizon and AT&T.  They should keep those Sprint roaming agreements and expand those to cover T-Mobile customers and use it as an incentive to get off their &$$es and build out their network in the many areas where there is no coverage.  NC will have many black holes if they don't keep USCC and Carolina West Wireless roaming.  I really doubt they want to spend the big $ to build out the lower populated and tourist areas in the mountains when they can keep a reciprocal roaming agreement with USCC and CWW.  This is just one of many examples, plus it benefits the CWW customers as they get network access nationwide.  I'm sure it is a pretty good deal for Sprint (T-Mobile).  I hope they keep it for a while.

[dkyeager]

T-Mobile has always been cash flow conscious. They start with urban areas first and do rural last. Many rural areas don't require or track permits publically so we will have to wait or do more leg work

I sense a certain hubris concerning CDMA's distance advantage, especially 1x800. April 1st will come up fast and we will know at that time.  It would not suprise me if they give the Shentel area more time with CDMA.

Small towns will be the lynchpin for VoLTE come July 1. I will be watching ones with a Sprint site on one side and T-Mobile on the other.

If they follow historical trends and keep the same number of tower hands working to finish rural areas they could surprise us, but time is growing quite short.

[davidtm]

1 hour ago, Trip said:

As fast as they've been moving, there's a ton of work still to do, especially in the Shentel region.  I looked at Albemarle County's permits a few days ago and only found two or three for conversions, and Shentel has dozens of sites that don't overlap with T-Mobile.  And that's almost a month into the new year.  It's entirely possible they could get it all done by December 31, but there will certainly be a gap after July 1 when the Sprint network (tentatively) shuts down and whenever T-Mobile gets their act entirely together. 

- Trip

As a resident of Albemarle, I completely agree. Shentel's management of the network here has been so good, that any change looks potentially worse. I, of course, sincerely hope that my pessimism will not be rewarded . . .

[RedSpark]

Interesting write-up.

[Terrell352]

I got n41 120mhz and n71+n41 SA CA yesterday!!!

https://photos.app.goo.gl/4f4M1DYrWDyyaZek6

https://photos.app.goo.gl/mm592p86915G3hh76

https://photos.app.goo.gl/iJrCdg849mJWvbup6

[iansltx]

The thing with roaming is, T-Mobile could roll a bunch of Starlink-backhauled 600-only sites with both LTE and NR and largely get the coverage they need. But that requires more cpex. Sounds like they intend to coast once they hit 2024, which is when AT&T and VZW will be going ham on C-Band. If VZW and AT&T execute, T-Mobile will have to invest in the network rather than doing share buybacks because they have nothing better to do with the money. Hopefully that competitive dynamic actually happens.

[cooltech6597]

15 hours ago, iansltx said:

The thing with roaming is, T-Mobile could roll a bunch of Starlink-backhauled 600-only sites with both LTE and NR and largely get the coverage they need. But that requires more cpex. Sounds like they intend to coast once they hit 2024, which is when AT&T and VZW will be going ham on C-Band. If VZW and AT&T execute, T-Mobile will have to invest in the network rather than doing share buybacks because they have nothing better to do with the money. Hopefully that competitive dynamic actually happens.

Yup. Found a few sites in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan that only has LTE b71 5mhz broadcasting due to satellite backhaul. Sad thing is that 1 of those sites were placed very well where the other 2 didn't have service, but only calls worked. Hopefully if Starlink decides to make some enterprise version of their pro tier dish T-Mobile could start also broadcasting n71 SA on those sites too.

[RedSpark]

Hopefully T-Mobile is able to deal with this well in the coming years. Sounds like a real potential mess.

[dkyeager]

On 2/7/2022 at 9:19 AM, RedSpark said:

Hopefully T-Mobile is able to deal with this well in the coming years. Sounds like a real potential mess.

Hopefully the FCC will enforce buildout requirements for the speculators.

The real mess not mentioned is the fragmented frequencies.  it would be so nice if one license could stand alone and have 10 or 20Mhz or more, plus a single 4mhz slot at the end (adding one channel to 2.5 wi-fi would require 5Mhz, thus not enough).  Currently a carrier must own several to truly use them.  However a speculator can disrupt several licenses with just one license.

Perhaps this is why the FCC has not finalized auction 108 plans yet. Or short one commissioner.  Not in the February 18th open commission meeting schedule.

[RedSpark]

Yikes.

[IrwinshereAgain]

7 minutes ago, RedSpark said:

Yikes.

Is "TMobile broke promises" a valid headline?  Just asking.

Covid certainly contributed to all 3 cutting jobs.

[Thomas L.]

On 2/3/2022 at 4:55 PM, Terrell352 said:

I got n41 120mhz and n71+n41 SA CA yesterday!!!

https://photos.app.goo.gl/4f4M1DYrWDyyaZek6

https://photos.app.goo.gl/mm592p86915G3hh76

https://photos.app.goo.gl/iJrCdg849mJWvbup6

What did speeds look like?

[Dkoellerwx]

On 2/3/2022 at 6:55 PM, Terrell352 said:

I got n41 120mhz and n71+n41 SA CA yesterday!!!

https://photos.app.goo.gl/4f4M1DYrWDyyaZek6

https://photos.app.goo.gl/mm592p86915G3hh76

https://photos.app.goo.gl/iJrCdg849mJWvbup6

 

2 hours ago, Thomas L. said:

What did speeds look like?

Looking at those photos, n41 was only CA'd with n71, so while there are 120Mhz of n41 on air it would appear, the extra 20Mhz is not being used together with the rest of the n41 yet. 

[mikejeep]

7 hours ago, IrwinshereAgain said:

Is "TMobile broke promises" a valid headline?  Just asking.

Covid certainly contributed to all 3 cutting jobs.

I completely agree on both points. The article says T-Mobile/Sprint is down 5,500 jobs -- yet AT&T and Verizon are down 114,500. How is T-Mobile the problem here? And covid is not mentioned at all.. and that is undoubtedly a massive factor.

[dkyeager]

8 hours ago, mikejeep said:

I completely agree on both points. The article says T-Mobile/Sprint is down 5,500 jobs -- yet AT&T and Verizon are down 114,500. How is T-Mobile the problem here? And covid is not mentioned at all.. and that is undoubtedly a massive factor.

It would be interesting to know how many unfilled openings they have given our labor shortage or delays in opening small town stores caused by construction delays. I do agree that changing CEOs is one way to get rid of promises, but having more staff in small towns appears to be a strategic shift. Customers have also gotten used to doing more things remotely during this pandemic thus there may simply be less demand.

[BlueAngel]

21 hours ago, mikejeep said:

I completely agree on both points. The article says T-Mobile/Sprint is down 5,500 jobs -- yet AT&T and Verizon are down 114,500. How is T-Mobile the problem here? And covid is not mentioned at all.. and that is undoubtedly a massive factor.

Forced mandate is likely to blame.

[dkyeager]

9 hours ago, BlueAngel said:

Forced mandate is likely to blame.

Studies I have seen of large firms indicate about 1% actual loss, so that would leave roughly 80% unaccounted for. 

Remote jobs are popular likely for the opposite reason, which may indicate a reluctance to take/leave these positions for many reasons (lack of child care, fear of bringing covid home, avoiding combative customers of any stripe, etc). Some of these factors vary month to month.

Another way to look at this is how many people has T-Mobile actually laid off (not counting new positions) versus their projections. It was always known they would lay off corporate types and managers -- simple redundancy.

A different way to look at it would be T-Mobile store count from before merger (not including Sprint) to now.  They consolidated quickly, thus more small town stores should now be appearing.

[PedroDaGr8]

Someone posted this over at Reddit, n41 small cell site plans for LA. Looks like they will be using the AIR 4435 for the B41/n41 portion.

 

https://epicla.lacounty.gov/energov_prod/SelfService/#/plan/2a27f8d0-790f-49b2-807d-dc7bfb935370?tab=attachments

[dkyeager]

1 hour ago, PedroDaGr8 said:

Someone posted this over at Reddit, n41 small cell site plans for LA. Looks like they will be using the AIR 4435 for the B41/n41 portion.

 

https://epicla.lacounty.gov/energov_prod/SelfService/#/plan/2a27f8d0-790f-49b2-807d-dc7bfb935370?tab=attachments

Air makes other products that look quite nice. Such a boring model.

[RedSpark]

Guess they worked this out:

https://www.fiercewireless.com/5g/dish-and-t-mobile-resolve-their-cdma-shut-dispute

https://www.fiercewireless.com/5g/dish-marks-5g-progress-plans-launch-5g-25-major-markets-june

[RedSpark]

Should be interesting. Predictions?

[clbowens]

1 hour ago, RedSpark said:

Should be interesting. Predictions?

Hopefully T-Mobile will buy as much as they can.

[clbowens]

17 hours ago, RedSpark said:

Should be interesting. Predictions?

Also, I saw they are planning 50Mhz channels.