Official Tmobile-Sprint merger discussion thread

[dkyeager]

16 minutes ago, Yuhfhrh said:

Tracfone AT&T sims went from QCI 8 to 9 as well a couple years ago.

I'm pretty neutral towards AT&T's turbo feature here, the only bad taste left was for those who had unadvertised QCI 7 a couple months ago moved down to 8.

In my eyes it would have been a lot better for AT&T to include turbo in those Premium/Elite plans for free to keep them at QCI 7, while also introducing this turbo add on option for any other plans or devices. As it stands now only a handful of plans can add it, and only if you're using a device on a random list of devices AT&T considers to be 5G smartphones.

I think the push for them is adding US Mobile as a MVNO with a priority data plan.  Ultimately, making people more aware of priority would allow them (and other carriers) to differentiate themselves from MVNOs like Consumer Cellular that advertise the same coverage.

n77 has dramatically reduced the need for priority service at Verizon where the mere functioning of your phone was in jeopardy a couple of years ago if you had a low priority plan like Red Pocket. Only have heard of problems with T-Mobile in parts of Los Angeles. AT&T fell in between. All had issues at large concerts and festivals, or sporting events if your carrier has no on-site rights.

Edit: Dishes native 5g network has different issues: not enough sites, limited bandwidth. Higher priority would help a few. Truth is they can push phones to AT&T or T-Mobile.

[Paynefanbro]

T-Mobile acquiring SoniqWave's 2.5 GHz spectrum 

Another spectrum speculator down! T-Mobile is acquiring all of their BRS/EBS licenses and their leases. Details are lacking but it looks like T-Mobile might be giving them 3.45GHz in exchange in some of the markets where they're acquiring BRS/EBS to sweeten the deal and stay below the spectrum screen.

Hopefully NextWave is at the negotiating table with T-Mobile so NYC can finally get access to the full BRS/EBS band as well. 

— — — — —

Edit:

Turns out this is a spectrum swap where T-Mobile is basically giving them DoD spectrum in a bunch of markets in exchange for all of SoniqWave's BRS/EBS. SoniqWave will likely turn around and sell the DoD spectrum to AT&T whenever the FCC removes the 40MHz cap.

[Paynefanbro]

From WSJ which is paywalled but they're reporting that T-Mobile and Verizon are working on a joint deal to buy and split up U.S. Cellular.

https://www.wsj.com/business/telecom/t-mobile-verizon-in-talks-to-carve-up-u-s-cellular-46d1e5e6?st=qwngrnh4s3bcr76

— — — — — 

Summary from a user in the Reddit thread:

Quote

In case you do not have WSJ subscription: According to WSJ, T-Mobile is closing in on a deal to buy a chunk of the regional carrier for more than $2 billion, taking over some operations and wireless spectrum licenses, according to people familiar with the matter. The T-Mobile deal could be reached as soon as later this month, while discussions with Verizon on a separate transaction are expected to take longer or might not result in an agreement, the people said. The split-sale structure is designed to convince antitrust authorities who will review the deal that the tie-up won’t hurt competition. U.S. authorities review wireless mergers market by market. 

 

[dkyeager]

Quote from wsj; "The T-Mobile deal could be reached as soon as later this month, while discussions with Verizon on a separate transaction are expected to take longer or might not result in an agreement, the people said."

"The rising value of wireless licenses is a driving force behind the deal. U.S. Cellular’s spectrum portfolio touches 30 states and covers about 51 million people, according to regulatory filings."

https://specmap.sequence-omega.net/

[dkyeager]

For those who did not look, this could result in significant gains of BR & ED (n41), PCS(n25), AWS, and 600(n71) and 700Mhz for T-Mobile in many areas, including areas without US Cellular coverage. The rural stores and staff could also be valuable to T-Mobile.

Verizon or AT&T could get B5, C-Band, CBRS, 3.45, and mmWave

[dkyeager]

https://www.fierce-network.com/wireless/t-mobile-reportedly-close-deal-buy-part-uscellular

Verizon is no longer interested, at least for now.

[RedSpark]

On 5/10/2024 at 10:29 PM, dkyeager said:

https://www.fierce-network.com/wireless/t-mobile-reportedly-close-deal-buy-part-uscellular

Verizon is no longer interested, at least for now.

I'm surprised US Cellular held on for as long as it did....

[dkyeager]

1 hour ago, RedSpark said:

I'm surprised US Cellular held on for as long as it did....

I think too long for the good of their shareholders and customers (who may be left to drift in the wind).

[dkyeager]

mmWave swap with AT&T: https://wireless2.fcc.gov/UlsApp/ApplicationSearch/applMain.jsp?applID=14724384

Credit VISITOR1 on Reddit.

T-Mobile gives 39GHz to AT&T in exchange for 24GHz nationwide. Both US Cellular and Starry have 24GHz. Ohio 850MHz with June 1 buildout deadline is on 28GHz.

[RedSpark]

1 hour ago, dkyeager said:

I think too long for the good of their shareholders and customers (who may be left to drift in the wind).

I completely agree.

[Trip]

I'm wondering which geographic areas T-Mobile might be interested in obtaining, or if it's strictly a spectrum sale of some kind.  In Virginia, US Cellular got three of the B41 licenses, including two in areas I frequent.  These two are in an area where US Cellular is severely spectrum constrained--just one block of CLR (B5) and one 5x5 in AWS-3 (B66), all running LTE.  (So 10x10 and 5x5.  Select towers also have B48 LTE on them, which is clearly at least 20 dB weaker than B5/66.) 

I could definitely see interest from T-Mobile in the B41 licenses, but would have a hard time picturing US Cellular trying to continue serving these areas if it can't use spectrum to beef up its already-overwhelmed cell sites with more capacity.  (They keep adding towers to this very rural area to make up for it.)  Would T-Mobile buy out the area entirely to get a hold of the B41 licenses (and the B66 couldn't hurt either)?  Given US Cellular's strangehold over the area, would it even sell in that eventuality?  And then what would happen to the B5 spectrum? 

Lots of questions.  Got my fingers crossed for T-Mobile obtaining the area and keeping most or all of the sites, as it could quickly and easily make reliable rural broadband a thing in the area, especially given how the Shentel merger went.  But I really have no sense of how likely it actually is.

- Trip

[dkyeager]

3 hours ago, Trip said:

I'm wondering which geographic areas T-Mobile might be interested in obtaining, or if it's strictly a spectrum sale of some kind.  In Virginia, US Cellular got three of the B41 licenses, including two in areas I frequent.  These two are in an area where US Cellular is severely spectrum constrained--just one block of CLR (B5) and one 5x5 in AWS-3 (B66), all running LTE.  (So 10x10 and 5x5.  Select towers also have B48 LTE on them, which is clearly at least 20 dB weaker than B5/66.) 

I could definitely see interest from T-Mobile in the B41 licenses, but would have a hard time picturing US Cellular trying to continue serving these areas if it can't use spectrum to beef up its already-overwhelmed cell sites with more capacity.  (They keep adding towers to this very rural area to make up for it.)  Would T-Mobile buy out the area entirely to get a hold of the B41 licenses (and the B66 couldn't hurt either)?  Given US Cellular's strangehold over the area, would it even sell in that eventuality?  And then what would happen to the B5 spectrum? 

Lots of questions.  Got my fingers crossed for T-Mobile obtaining the area and keeping most or all of the sites, as it could quickly and easily make reliable rural broadband a thing in the area, especially given how the Shentel merger went.  But I really have no sense of how likely it actually is.

- Trip

Reportedly Verizon has backed out, but that could be a negotiating tactic. T-Mobile needs another purchaser. They are doing a mmWave spectrum swap with AT&T, so maybe them. Could always go with a spectrum speculator.  The duo may not want the debt on their books until 2026.  I think the towers and customers may be dumped (handled separately).

[Trip]

If they're splitting it up, there's nothing stopping T-Mobile from doing a deal first and then the rest of the company being bought by Verizon or AT&T at a later date.  I can't see why you'd have to have both lined up at once.

I'm reminded of when nTelos shut down.  They sold off the PCS spectrum they had in the "eastern market" (Richmond/Norfolk) to T-Mobile where they didn't have the Sprint deal first, and then later did the sale to Sprint and Shentel.

- Trip

[dkyeager]

https://www.fierce-network.com/wireless/t-mobiles-appetite-more-25-ghz-alive-and-well?__cf_chl_tk=E8B8E2cXIEfkSd2I6oKIMlE1.2OR2YbUh7Dl9Kkt_Os-1715722620-0.0.1.1-1770

Discusses pending deal for more 2.5Ghz for T-Mobile that may ultimately benefit AT&T.

[dkyeager]

Since T-Mobile is testing the fiber waters for a time when FWA needs to be paired back, here is an article comparing the two costs (performance differences not mentioned): https://www.fierce-network.com/broadband/nextlink-ceo-compares-fixed-wireless-fiber. 

[BucketHead25]

I took advantage of the special T-Mobile FWA special offer back in Dec, 2022 @ $25/month (still paying $25).  I was paying Spectrum $80/month for their basic 400/20 internet.  I'm full time WFM and routinely see greater than 400/80 with 15 mS latency.  I figure I've saved almost $1000 in 18 months and have arguably better service.  I realize they charge $60/month now but if it's available to you it's still a good deal.  Alta Fiber is installing fiber now so we'll have a third option by next year.  They charge $40/month for their 400/400 essential service.  Competition is finally happening.

[PedroDaGr8]

1 hour ago, BucketHead25 said:

I took advantage of the special T-Mobile FWA special offer back in Dec, 2022 @ $25/month (still paying $25).  I was paying Spectrum $80/month for their basic 400/20 internet.  I'm full time WFM and routinely see greater than 400/80 with 15 mS latency.  I figure I've saved almost $1000 in 18 months and have arguably better service.  I realize they charge $60/month now but if it's available to you it's still a good deal.  Alta Fiber is installing fiber now so we'll have a third option by next year.  They charge $40/month for their 400/400 essential service.  Competition is finally happening.

I am lucky to be served by an excellent fiber ISP and that is the only reason I haven't tried TMOs FWA. Once you go fiber, it is REALLY hard to go back. The choice of sub-10ms ping times is a very artificial bucket, FWA will seldom get much below 10ms ping times but fiber regularly gets me 1-3ms ping times. Basically, at around those times, the speed of light and the distance you are from the server become the limiting factors.

As an aside, my internet provider, ZiplyFiber, has been awesome. They peer like crazy at all the major IX in the area and, as a result, you end up with what essentially amounts to direct fiber connections to the vast majority of major data sources. While it isn't sexy, it makes my 1Gb/1Gb connection load pages significantly faster than my works 10Gb/10Gb connection. On the "sexy" side, they are also fastest ISP in the nation. They offer up to 50Gb/50Gb via a direct fiber connection to the router, albeit for an eye watering $900/mo.

[dkyeager]

MoffetNathanson Conference

This is a conference where the CFO talks telecom financial analysts so obviously it takes a return on investment approach.  Broadly T-Mobile divides there world into top 100 markets (60%) and small town/rural (40%). They ultimately want to have at least 1/3 market share in rural. They also look at demographics like 50+ and Hispanic.  Reputation is now starting to help them with CIOs.  Did mention c-band buildout beginning in major cities as well as continued band migration to 5g.

IMO they may become more aggressive at offering 5g phones to LTE holdover and 5g users without VoNR at a future date.

mmWave not discussed. Price increases not discussed iirc. Did mention spectrum purchases from speculators. $9 billion all goes through same ROI process.

FWA is down to hexagonal patterns by sector of fallow spectrum. Fiber JVs will go where sectors are overloaded.

[chamb]

27 minutes ago, dkyeager said:

FWA is down to hexagonal patterns by sector of fallow spectrum. Fiber JVs will go where sectors are overloaded.

Hopefully they do not wait until these sectors get so overloaded that they start getting nasty reviews and people abandon them. Getting fiber coverage to the area of a overloaded sector can take a year or more. I also question if this can all be managed.  Lots of sectors all over the country can get congested fairly quick.  Lots of work and money to get fiber installed and there goes the profitability on the venture.

[iansltx]

7 minutes ago, chamb said:

Hopefully they do not wait until these sectors get so overloaded that they start getting nasty reviews and people abandon them. Getting fiber coverage to the area of a overloaded sector can take a year or more. I also question if this can all be managed.  Lots of sectors all over the country can get congested fairly quick.  Lots of work and money to get fiber installed and there goes the profitability on the venture.

FTTH JVs are city by city as well, so it's not going to really be sector by sector. It sounds like TMo wants to be able to sell everyone home broadband, but if that requires building additional infrastructure that infra will take the form of FTTH builds rather than mobile densification. Which involves tradeoffs, but the product is better than e.g. what AT&T is doing for me right now, which is offering only Internet Air in an area where they have 100/20 DSL available but not (yet) fiber.