Official Tmobile-Sprint merger discussion thread

[IrwinshereAgain]

21 minutes ago, Tengen31 said:

No just no. TMO or Sprint do something but not those two.

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Agreed.  Merger or not, we do want that spectrum put into service.  My fear is that the big two will somehow get more powerful if the merger fails.  That is the real anti trust issue.

[dro1984]

11 hours ago, Trip said:

https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/cowen-sees-court-blocking-t-mobile-sprint-deal

Key quote:  "The court set post-trial arguments for January 15, with each side having two hours to make their closing arguments. New Street expects the court will rule sometime between mid-February and mid-March."

- Trip

Hmm... looks like opinions of investment managers / analysts are like armpits ... everyone has one on Wallstreet and they all stink!  I guess it's a big guessing game... 50-50 chance you'll be wrong ... errr.. right??  

Judge will approve T-Mobile-Sprint merger say some Wall Street analysts

 

[jefbal99]

19 hours ago, IrwinshereAgain said:

Why couldn't Att or Verizon buy Dish instead of Tmobile?

At&t already owning directv, i couldnt' see that being approved.  They'd have to spin dish network (tv) off into a standalone or 3rd party.

[IrwinshereAgain]

50 minutes ago, jefbal99 said:

At&t already owning directv, i couldnt' see that being approved.  They'd have to spin dish network (tv) off into a standalone or 3rd party.

Didn't Att just buy Time Warner in 2018?

[bigsnake49]

On 1/6/2020 at 12:59 PM, red_dog007 said:

Beings that Dish is still supposed to do business as usual as if there was no merger talks, what is the likelyhood the FCC will approve Dish's AWS4 request for extension? Can the FCC take the merger into consideration if they approve the extension or not (if the merger fails).

Can the Judge consider this as part of the case?  With the possibility of the FCC not approving the extension on a failed merger and the FCC revoking 40MHz of spectrum, this would make things interesting. It would also give TMobile other opportunities to acquire more spectrum below 6GHz.

No merger, FCC revoke licenses, TMobile could pick up Dish for super cheap after their stock tanks from losing 40MHz of spectrum.

A Dish without AWS4 will still have nationwide 40MHz and up to 60MHz of 600, AWS-H and AWS-3.  That would put TMobile closer to AT&T holdings with an acquision of Dish, net them 10 million TV subscribers and increase yearily revenue by $13billion.

They will put up protection sites.

[Brad The Beast]

20 hours ago, dro1984 said:

Judge will approve T-Mobile-Sprint merger say some Wall Street analysts

There was a Bloomberg article posted last Thursday that says the opposite XD

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-02/analyst-sees-judge-likely-to-block-t-mobile-s-sprint-merger

Quote

Based on two weeks of court testimony last month and the nature of the questions U.S. District Judge Victor Marrero asked during the proceedings, Cowen & Co. analyst Paul Gallant sees a 60% chance the ruling will favor the states, according to a note Thursday.

 

[bigsnake49]

The analysts are just speculating. They don't know anymore than we do.

[Brad The Beast]

40 minutes ago, bigsnake49 said:

The analysts are just speculating. They don't know anymore than we do.

Yup. I just love how they're making up articles even though they have no clue what the outcome will be. 

[dro1984]

It's just a bunch of trash and re-picked news stories.     the press picks up a story from 2015 that T-Mobile was thinking of merging with Comcast.     You see it all over the last couple of weeks in the press ... It's old news from 4 or 5 years ago.   But it doesn't matter.    It gets so round up and tangled (think web)  that nobody later knows what is current and what isn't.  

[floorguy]

On 1/9/2020 at 10:46 AM, Brad The Beast said:

Yup. I just love how they're making up articles even though they have no clue what the outcome will be. 

WHAT the reporting media making up crap without facts????

That would never happen

 

[dro1984]

Its not that it's made up... but not real factual... just a lot of hopeful speculation.   The way they see it as Investment jerks, that if they call it correctly then they can say, see?!  Look, I knew it was (or wasn't) going through... .blah blah blah.... Invest with us, cause we know what's going on...  

[Trip]

https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/t-mobile-sprint-deal-faces-another-setback-analysts?utm_source=internal&utm_medium=rss

More analyst speculation, but interesting nonetheless.

- Trip

[BlueAngel]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sprint-corp-m-a-t-mobile/u-s-judge-hears-closing-arguments-in-t-mobile-sprint-merger-trial-idUSKBN1ZE1AS

[dro1984]

On 1/9/2020 at 12:05 PM, bigsnake49 said:

The analysts are just speculating. They don't know anymore than we do.

Hey bigsnake... what's your prediction as to when the Judge will issue his ruling?    I'm hoping it's this week.

[jroepcke51]

2 hours ago, dro1984 said:

Hey bigsnake... what's your prediction as to when the Judge will issue his ruling?    I'm hoping it's this week.

IMO closing arguments were only heard last week. I know the judge's response has already been started if not already completed; however, I think he will wait until Tunney Act proceeding is completed. Beginning of February is what I think.

[bigsnake49]

3 hours ago, dro1984 said:

Hey bigsnake... what's your prediction as to when the Judge will issue his ruling?    I'm hoping it's this week.

I'd give him until the beginning of February. Remember that he had the opposing sides briefs in his possession for 3-4+ months. He and his clerk(s) identified the main issues from the briefs and asked questions about it during trial. The closing arguments are really a show by the lawyers and really unnecessary when in front of a judge that actually paid attention. The reason why I think it will be delayed until the first week of February is that he needs to keep up appearances that he did not rush through it and he was deliberative and thoughtful. The last thing a judge wants to do is to give the states ammunition for an appeal.

Edited January 21, 2020 by bigsnake49

[dro1984]

Thanks.    I thought the same about the appeal, but knowing this crowd... they might.  

[bigsnake49]

I do think that the merger will be approved but just in case, here's my thoughts on what should happen if it gets rejected in order of preferred outcome:

1. T-Mobile & Sprint merge their network operations into an independent company and they both become MVNOs. Dish is left out in the cold with their spectrum unused. FCC has egg in their face. Only way Dish gets their network deployed is if Amazon and/or cable cos invest in them. it could happen...the other possibility is that Dish sells their spectrum to Verizon/AT&T/T-mobile. Sprint does pretty good but they are no longer a price leader. Their pricing is rationalized and pretty close to what the other major carriers charge.

2. Sprint gets properly funded by Softbank. They buy Dish's 600Mhz/ AWS-3. They fill out their present network but do not expand beyond their current footprint. They charge for rural roaming and they price themselves rationally. They grow slowly.

3. Sprint gets acquired by a consortium of Amazon and cable cos. They use Sprint to promote their video offerings to millennials. The resulting company expands their network to provide a really solid network in the boondocks but fall short of Verizon/AT&T which is OK. They only expand where they can make money. 

4. Sprint goes on without the financial support of Softbank and limps along. They shrink their network and become an urban based network. Some smaller markets and places where it does not make financial sense to have their network are dropped. They rationalize their prices and charge for roaming. Where they do offer service their network is really solid. 

[Tengen31]

I do think that the merger will be approved but just in case, here's my thoughts on what should happen if it gets rejected in order of preferred outcome:
1. T-Mobile & Sprint merge their network operations into an independent company and they both become MVNOs. Dish is left out in the cold with their spectrum unused. FCC has egg in their face. Only way Dish gets their network deployed is if Amazon and/or cable cos invest in them. it could happen...the other possibility is that Dish sells their spectrum to Verizon/AT&T/T-mobile. Sprint does pretty good but they are no longer a price leader. Their pricing is rationalized and pretty close to what the other major carriers charge.
2. Sprint gets properly funded by Softbank. They buy Dish's 600Mhz/ AWS-3. They fill out their present network but do not expand beyond their current footprint. They charge for rural roaming and they price themselves rationally. They grow slowly.
3. Sprint gets acquired by a consortium of Amazon and cable cos. They use Sprint to promote their video offerings to millennials. The resulting company expands their network to provide a really solid network in the boondocks but fall short of Verizon/AT&T which is OK. They only expand where they can make money. 
4. Sprint goes on without the financial support of Softbank and limps along. They shrink their network and become an urban based network. Some smaller markets and places where it does not make financial sense to have their network are dropped. They rationalize their prices and charge for roaming. Where they do offer service their network is really solid. 

SoftBank isn't willing to do anything with Sprint. Sprint will need a different buyer. I do agree with getting Dishes spectrum. They have Nationwide AWS at 20x20 and my area the have 10x10 600.

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[dro1984]

The only part of the above ideas that is palatable is T Mobile and Sprint getting together a "Network Sharing" agreement.    Everything else kinda stinks.   But lets face it... what will that do to Sprint?  It will basically be an MVNO to itself and T-Mobile.   Not really a major player anymore no matter what ... so what's the point of even having their weak name attached to anything.    Fold it up!    

I truly think the hidden objective of the states regardless of the upcoming ruling is to stall. Keep appealing in the courts as long as possible and drag it out until the carriers have no choice but to pull the cord on the whole idea and salvage what's left.  

Then entire possibility of the last 2 years of negotiations and agreements being wasted is hard to even think about.   

Edited January 21, 2020 by dro1984

[BlueAngel]

I'm so ready for this to be over with, bring on the merger.

[shaferz]

8 hours ago, BlueAngel said:

I'm so ready for this to be over with, bring on the merger.

Completely agree.  I have been back and forth on this merger from the start, but came around when concessions were made and deals started happening with the individual states.

 

The potentials of a completely merged network and company are huge.  Sprint obviously can not go at it alone financially.  And t-mobile can not go at it alone based on their own spectrum.  The two companies are a near perfect match, and I honestly believe we would all benefit from a merger in both the short term and the long term.

They both need each other to succeed at the level that Verizon and ATT has.  

[bigsnake49]

If the main argument of the judge's opinion is that the states have no standing to sue since this is the purview of the federal government and not the states then it will withstand appeal. If he also lists the fact that FCC and DOJ went over and above their mandate (they only had to use approve or reject the merger) by creating a new competitor and are putting Dish's spectrum to use I think there will not be any appeals.

BTW if the merger gets rejected, T-Mobile will be fine. CBRS and C-band auctions are coming up and they can pick up sizable chunks of spectrum there. I believe the cable cos will be major players in those two auctions also. I have always thought that the cable cos using either Sprint's spectrum or CBRS/C-Band spectrum will be something to be reckoned with. They can blanket the urban/suburban landscape with strand/pole mounted antennas and offer very attractive bundles that includes wireless service.

Edited January 22, 2020 by bigsnake49

[BlueAngel]

A lot of people are going to jump ship if the merger fails to go through myself included. 

[Tengen31]

A lot of people are going to jump ship if the merger fails to go through myself included. 

To where?

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