Official Tmobile-Sprint merger discussion thread

[bigsnake49]

15 minutes ago, S4GRU said:

If there is no merger, it is not all gloom and doom.  Sprint is a healthier company now than it has been in the past.  It will really come down to how it would play the future competitive landscape and whether having too compete too low on price while building out an expensive new upgrade again ends up being too much in the long run.  There is no imminence of doom.  And there is no guarantee that the other will fare as well, either.

If Sprint keeps improving its network and keeps prices low, it steadily drains money from their competitors too.  Sprint does not have to be perfect to be a disruptor.  And soon there would be no Legere at Tmo.  Who knows how a post Legere Tmo works out in the long run?  No need for dire predictions at this point!  And as a Verizon and Tmo customer also, I can tell you it ain't all unicorns and fairy dust over on the other networks.  People are expecting a huge difference, and for the most part, they find a slight difference. 

We have seen a lot of people come back to Sprint in these forums the past 12-18 months, all saying the same thing.  They expected their digital life to come alive leaving Sprint, and then they just find they get poorer month over month.  Then come back and find the network is even better since they left.

Robert

Sprint has pretty much neglected our area. T-Mobile improved by leaps and bounds in this area when they acquired MetroPCS. Metro duplicated the Verizon network throughout Florida and had developed quite a following. Sprint's network actually went backwards in that they replaced some macro sites beach side with small cells + band 26. Not smart because small cells just don't have the coverage. Forced me to get an MB.

[dro1984]

1 hour ago, bigsnake49 said:

Sprint has pretty much neglected our area. T-Mobile improved by leaps and bounds in this area when they acquired MetroPCS. Metro duplicated the Verizon network throughout Florida and had developed quite a following. Sprint's network actually went backwards in that they replaced some macro sites beach side with small cells + band 26. Not smart because small cells just don't have the coverage. Forced me to get an MB.

same by me from my experiences in my area ....mostly at home.    They've gone backwards in what was once a decent signal is mostly now weak.     Had a Magic Box for nearly a year, until one of the updates kept my phone from receiving incoming calls.   Was with Sprint Tech Support 5 or 6 times and decided to say take it away!   Junk!   Just another "band-aid", one of many tried.    If you have a good network, you don't need all this extra stuff.    Sprint had a Small cell site built at the end of the road by me (1/2 mile away) on a traffic light pole.    It's Sprint.   Checked the site on Signal Check...  Band 41- 2500g.   Nice but it's signal is so low powered it only goes about 1-2 blocks then fades away very quickly for my 1-2 bar Macro signal off the main site 3 miles away.    

Edited December 11, 2019 by dro1984

[red_dog007]

If Sprint was on the verge of collapse, like a few weeks from filing for bankruptcy, this case would be a done deal. 

TMobile and Sprint would merge.  They could pitch and absolutely sell that. If a judge believes the numbers, no judge will allow Sprint to just fall off.  

If anything, I think the best thing for Sprint if this doesn't go through is to go private. 

[tommym65]

6 hours ago, S4GRU said:

If there is no merger, it is not all gloom and doom.  Sprint is a healthier company now than it has been in the past.  It will really come down to how it would play the future competitive landscape and whether having too compete too low on price while building out an expensive new upgrade again ends up being too much in the long run.  There is no imminence of doom.  And there is no guarantee that the other will fare as well, either.

If Sprint keeps improving its network and keeps prices low, it steadily drains money from their competitors too.  Sprint does not have to be perfect to be a disruptor.  And soon there would be no Legere at Tmo.  Who knows how a post Legere Tmo works out in the long run?  No need for dire predictions at this point!  And as a Verizon and Tmo customer also, I can tell you it ain't all unicorns and fairy dust over on the other networks.  People are expecting a huge difference, and for the most part, they find a slight difference. 

We have seen a lot of people come back to Sprint in these forums the past 12-18 months, all saying the same thing.  They expected their digital life to come alive leaving Sprint, and then they just find they get poorer month over month.  Then come back and find the network is even better since they left.

Robert

Hi, Robert

While I see your points, I respectfully disagree with some of them.  Properly managed, Sprint does have the resources to compete successfully.  But the key phrase is "properly managed", and that's where Sprint has shown critical weakness time and time again.

Since Dan Hesse was screwed over in the Metro PCS debacle, and then dumped after Softbank took over, Sprint hasn't shown any signs of intelligent strategic management.  Tactically, they have tried hard to succeed, and have kept up with technology, and have tried to keep up with deployments.  But Softbank's refusal to provide capital (either directly or through 3rd parties), Claure's ham-handed cost cutting,  and Masa's tunnel-vision focus on merger have all combined to put Sprint in a desperate situation.

So I agree with you that Sprint could compete in the future, but I think it is unrealistic to expect Masayoshi and Softbank to actually try to compete.  If the merger fails, I think that it is far more likely that Masa will basically dump Sprint just like he dumped Hesse, and loyal Sprint employees and the few remaining independent stockholders will be left swinging in the wind.  Sprint customers (I've been with Sprint for 20+ years) will also be hung out to dry.  I hope that I am wrong.  Actually, I hope the merger goes through, but if it doesn't, then I hope that I am wrong.  But I'm not counting on it.

[Brad The Beast]

22 hours ago, dkyeager said:

Another option would be to sell Boost. 

Boost founder has already said he would pay $2b for the brand back. 

[S4GRU]

Yes, some of you disagree with me.  That's to be expected.  Sprint sucks in some places.  But Sprint is not only great in my area, but they're actually the best.  And in most metro areas, they are perfectly usable.  But guess what?  T-mobile sucks in many places.  And I can tell you here in their home market, they're the worst carrier.  Verizon also stinks in places too. 

I suppose if I lived in a crappy Sprint market, I'd go.  But I can tell you I see more and more people who leave Sprint and either come back or even if they don't, admit that the network wasn't as bad as they thought and there was a complete over dramatization in the disparity in networks. 

Everybody's gotta do what's best for themselves.  And if leaving Sprint is best for you, I certainly wouldn't hold it against anyone.  I've seen many go over the years.  And I still sit here plugging away behind the keyboard. 

But the one thing that won't continue is the overly negative drumbeat that's happening in this thread.  You all are starting to build off each other's negativity, causing the conversation to become one sided and pointless.  Don't want to hear ad infinitum the same droll negative grumblings.  Especially the same 'ol criticisms and Sprint can't be trusted.  Frankly, the drama is not true.  Sprint took longer, yes, but it did upgrade its network, and the performance is better.  And on the whole, it's better than its ever been.  So it cannot be said Sprint didn't do it.  They did.

So let's stick to the thread discussion, which is the merger.  Not on the network performance on Lower Botswana Avenue and your thoughts on changing networks because of your block.

Robert 

[JossMan]

7 hours ago, red_dog007 said:

If Sprint was on the verge of collapse, like a few weeks from filing for bankruptcy, this case would be a done deal. 

TMobile and Sprint would merge.  They could pitch and absolutely sell that. If a judge believes the numbers, no judge will allow Sprint to just fall off.  

If anything, I think the best thing for Sprint if this doesn't go through is to go private. 

Sprint can't afford to go private, they can't afford to buy back shares from stockholders, going private won't happen.  Either the merger will pass (60/40 chance at this point), if not Son will find a buyer for Sprint and take a loss (hello WeWork) and as a trader the way Sprint's shares are trading its almost as if market makers are already pricing in a merger failure.  Sprint would have to do some serious trimming off its balance sheet, sale portions of its network and subs, or even file Chapter 11.  I don't really see Sprint filing bankruptcy I've seen companies with worse earnings and survive.  Son just wants out of the U.S. wireless market and merging with T-Mobile is the fastest way to do so all while pitching this "5G for all" bs <--- I don't even have faith in T-Mobile post merger if it happens.  Sprint needs someone with deep pockets like Altice or another large cable company (and most certainly not Dish). 

[dro1984]

What happened to today's threads???

[dro1984]

Try it again here....   T-Mobile-Sprint Judge Questions Claim Merger Hurts Customers

Interesting turn of events.   The Bloomberg panel over-viewing the turn of events makes a good point.   The 14 or so State's Attorney Generals argue the deal is anti-competitive... something the FCC and the DOJ already said, which was why they come up with the Dish deal.    The Feds already went over this for 1.5 years.   The judge to the states is basically saying: what solution do you have then?   You said it's anti-competitive, but what solutions do you have other than stopping this??   

[red_dog007]

A solution to what exactly?  anti-competitive? 

Well when it is to buy or not to buy, the only answer is not to buy. I guess the judge is considering Dish's prospective. Will they get the job done.  I think, with deadlines so near, and them owning spectrum for so long, we have to look at intent.  So far, with the lack of building anything, that shows pretty solid intent right there. 

As soon as the carriers get spectrum, they toss that stuff up on towers asap. Look how much has been deployed for B66, B71, B14. Look how much 5G is already deployed.  Dish, in the last year before deadlines annouced 1, maybe 1.5billion for an IoT network. 

 

I was actually kinda thinking about this. Dish needs to be willing to buy Sprint's entire network. Sprint essentially stays as is, minus spectrum licenses and postpaid customers. 

[dro1984]

That would involve another lengthy merger proposal with the FCC and DOJ.   Another 2 years wasted.   A possible new administration...  IDK.... don't like that idea.    Who's going to teach them  how to run a network?   (LOL)... please don't say ....    

Edited December 12, 2019 by dro1984

[dkyeager]

One thing that we have forgotten is this may not be a pure win lose court case. The Wireless Telecommuications Bureau was preempted from going through a county by county spectrum analysis.  The DOJ never went to the next step of buying national advertisements to start the Tunney Act process. Basically the state AGs court case seems to have frozen or taken over these aspects. In smaller mergers these details are often handled by an administrative law judge.

[bigsnake49]

18 hours ago, red_dog007 said:

A solution to what exactly?  anti-competitive? 

Well when it is to buy or not to buy, the only answer is not to buy. I guess the judge is considering Dish's prospective. Will they get the job done.  I think, with deadlines so near, and them owning spectrum for so long, we have to look at intent.  So far, with the lack of building anything, that shows pretty solid intent right there. 

As soon as the carriers get spectrum, they toss that stuff up on towers asap. Look how much has been deployed for B66, B71, B14. Look how much 5G is already deployed.  Dish, in the last year before deadlines annouced 1, maybe 1.5billion for an IoT network. 

 

I was actually kinda thinking about this. Dish needs to be willing to buy Sprint's entire network. Sprint essentially stays as is, minus spectrum licenses and postpaid customers. 

FCC wanted Dish to deploy its spectrum, Dish was hesitant to enter a 4 player market, making it a 5 player market. This merger solves couple of problems. It solves Sprint's capex problems, T-Mobile's spectrum problem and Dish's (and FCC's) spectrum deployment problem. Win, win, win!

Edited December 13, 2019 by bigsnake49

[Grabber5.0]

FCC wanted Dish to deploy its spectrum, Dish was hesitant to enter a 4 player market, making it a 5 player market. This merger solves couple of problems. It solves Sprint's capex problems, T-Mobile's spectrum problem and Dish's (and FCC's) spectrum deployment problem. Win, win, win!

Makes it that much more obvious they were just buying it to squat and try to sell for big profit. Unbelievable that it was allowed to go on this long. [emoji2959]

[red_dog007]

2 hours ago, bigsnake49 said:

FCC wanted Dish to deploy its spectrum, Dish was hesitant to enter a 4 player market, making it a 5 player market. This merger solves couple of problems. It solves Sprint's capex problems, T-Mobile's spectrum problem and Dish's (and FCC's) spectrum deployment problem. Win, win, win!

What also solves the problem, the licenses lapse and the FCC get to auction off old Dish spectrum that will fetch billions. FCC wins. The people win. Purchasers win. Sprint has been spending capex so that problem is solved already.

If Dish looses half their spectrum, they might have to settle for cheap leasing agreements, so leasees win. 

People like to harp on Sprint for bad numbers, no growth, and small and weak network.  Going from 2 big 2 small players to 3 big 1 non player sounds like great competition!  With the previous history of inaction, doing minimal, spending money to push deadlines vs taking action, Dish will likely do just enough to pump their numbers, pump their evaluation, then sell out. Buildout extensions. 8 million new customers on the cheap.  More spectrum on the cheap. MVNO status. Their evaluation will go through the roof.  They will buildout 'just enough' i.e. protection sites and call it a day.  Unless Dish gets 10s of billions of capex running through them, how in the world are they supposed to compete with 3 large, 100+ million sub companies?

For Dish to have a chance, and for them to be taken serious, imo, they need to buy Sprint's physical network.

I would not be surprised if the merger goes through, we get a reverse takeover from Dish of the New-TMobile in a few short years. Sure they have spectrum, but without a network there is no way for them to survive.  To build a nationwide network from scratch, that is very not Ergen, and likely cheaper to just buy New-TMobile.

Edited December 13, 2019 by red_dog007

[bigsnake49]

48 minutes ago, Grabber5.0 said:

Makes it that much more obvious they were just buying it to squat and try to sell for big profit. Unbelievable that it was allowed to go on this long.

No, Ergen wanted to sell the whole Dish, nobody wants to buy all of it. After what Dish pulled at the AWS-3 auction to pump up the value of their spectrum nobody wanted to deal with them. The FCC does not want to deal with taking spectrum back particularly spectrum bought in auction. I am sure that Dish could tie them up in court for many many years. 

[bigsnake49]

47 minutes ago, red_dog007 said:

What also solves the problem, the licenses lapse and the FCC get to auction off old Dish spectrum that will fetch billions. FCC wins. The people win. Purchasers win. Sprint has been spending capex so that problem is solved already.

If Dish looses half their spectrum, they might have to settle for cheap leasing agreements, so leasees win. 

People like to harp on Sprint for bad numbers, no growth, and small and weak network.  Going from 2 big 2 small players to 3 big 1 non player sounds like great competition!  With the previous history of inaction, doing minimal, spending money to push deadlines vs taking action, Dish will likely do just enough to pump their numbers, pump their evaluation, then sell out. Buildout extensions. 8 million new customers on the cheap.  More spectrum on the cheap. MVNO status. Their evaluation will go through the roof.  They will buildout 'just enough' i.e. protection sites and call it a day.  Unless Dish gets 10s of billions of capex running through them, how in the world are they supposed to compete with 3 large, 100+ million sub companies?

For Dish to have a chance, and for them to be taken serious, imo, they need to buy Sprint's physical network.

I would not be surprised if the merger goes through, we get a reverse takeover from Dish of the New-TMobile in a few short years. Sure they have spectrum, but without a network there is no way for them to survive.  To build a nationwide network from scratch, that is very not Ergen, and likely cheaper to just buy New-TMobile.

Who is going to finance such a large merger of Dish swallowing T-Mobile? 

I am sure that Dish will ride on New T-Mobile's network for as long as they can. But New T-Mobile will not touch AWS-4. They will host AWS-3 and 600MHZ and continue hosting 800MHz but Dish needs to pony up for AWS-4 deployment whether they do it themselves or T-Mobile hosts it. I have no problem if they never develop their own network but there is a maximum of 5 years of being an MVNO per the merger agreement, I think, but that can be changed. I think that offering video on mobile devices for free if you join their network will attract the younger generation. Dish already has content licenses.

Lest we forget, the cable cos will be major players in the CBRS/C band spectrum. They can offload the rural/highway coverage to Verizon and use their own small cell based networks to service the rest. They can also play the video on mobile devices game since they have content agreements as well. 

Edited December 13, 2019 by bigsnake49

[Brad The Beast]

T-Mobile CEO John Legere: Mobile prices will go up if Sprint deal fails

Quote

T-Mobile CEO John Legere said if his company’s $26.5 billion deal to buy Sprint fails, it may have to raise prices to slow user growth and relieve stress on the T-Mobile network.

This is an interesting development...

[Paynefanbro]

This is the first time that they're admitting they're growing fast and their network can't handle it. If you watch the T-Mobile subreddit, this is something that people have been saying for the better part of 2 years now. T-Mobile already lost their "fastest network" crown to AT&T and according to Ookla, Sprint is either matching or exceeding their average speeds in most markets.

[Brad The Beast]

1 hour ago, Paynefanbro said:

This is the first time that they're admitting they're growing fast and their network can't handle it. If you watch the T-Mobile subreddit, this is something that people have been saying for the better part of 2 years now. T-Mobile already lost their "fastest network" crown to AT&T and according to Ookla, Sprint is either matching or exceeding their average speeds in most markets.

There was a report posted not too long ago that showed who struggled the worst with congestion in 12 major cities. I can't for the life of me remember which company posted it. I do remember though that T-Mobile took the crown for worst congestion during peak time in 10 of these 12 cities. Does anyone remember who created that report? I FOUND IT! It was RootMetrics! https://www.rootmetrics.com/en-US/content/review-of-the-us-mobile-landscape-US-1H-2019

Turns out T-Mobile took the crown for worst congestion in 10 out of 13 cities, not 10 out of 12. 

[dro1984]

I take the congestion issue for T Mobile as a very positive thing.   They have a large network with a very healthy customer base!  

I have congestion problems on the current network with less people on it.    Go figure.   If the merger passes, the available spectrum will be put to good use.  

[red_dog007]

If they don't get Sprint, they will go all in with C-Band like VZW. VZW wants this merger to go through as TMobile will be a huge bidder if they don't.  They would walk away with 60 to 160MHz of spectrum depending on licensed area. Not considering the subscriber base you get with the merger, dealing with the infrastructure seems like it would be a hell of a lot easier to just buy C-Band, deploy that, DSS and SA 600MHz 5G in 2020.

[bigsnake49]

27 minutes ago, red_dog007 said:

If they don't get Sprint, they will go all in with C-Band like VZW. VZW wants this merger to go through as TMobile will be a huge bidder if they don't.  They would walk away with 60 to 160MHz of spectrum depending on licensed area. Not considering the subscriber base you get with the merger, dealing with the infrastructure seems like it would be a hell of a lot easier to just buy C-Band, deploy that, DSS and SA 600MHz 5G in 2020.

The cable cos will also be huge bidders for C-Band and CBRS. 

Prices will go up no matter what, whether they buy Sprint or not. T-Mobile no longer needs to compete on price. At least if they acquire Sprint prices will not go up for what 3-5 years. Of course they could increase prices in other ways like not giving you as much of a break on the handsets.

[dkyeager]

https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/sprint-can-survive-without-t-mobile-ex-ceo-claure-testifies

https://www.breitbart.com/news/us-lawmakers-fault-regulators-on-t-mobile-sprint-tie-up/

The FCC and DOJ are the refs on the field.  Needs to be a strong reason to overturn.  Tweaks around the edges are another matter.

[Brad The Beast]

1 hour ago, dkyeager said:

https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/sprint-can-survive-without-t-mobile-ex-ceo-claure-testifies

From that article:

Quote

While T-Mobile and Sprint have cited the debt as a major reason why Sprint can’t survive on its own, the states presented email evidence demonstrating that that Sprint’s controlling owner, SoftBank Group Corp., was prepared to pay off Sprint’s debt if necessary. “If we need to pay back most or all of bonds, I’m willing to pay back all of those,” Masayoshi Son, the Tokyo-based technology conglomerate’s founder and and CEO, said in a Dec. 11, 2017 email to Claure.

Quite an interesting discovery.