Official Tmobile-Sprint merger discussion thread

[cooltech6597]

https://www.google.com/maps/d/edit?mid=1HbGFtjv6cblda17OCE7k_73928zncy0&usp=sharing

Finally got around to updating the Gig+ map

[Paynefanbro]

T‑Mobile Delivers Industry‑Leading Growth in Customers and Profitability in Q2 2023, Raises 2023 Guidance Again

https://www.t-mobile.com/news/business/t-mobile-q2-2023-earnings

Quote

Industry-Leading Customer Growth Fueled by Network Leadership and Launch of Phone Freedom⁽¹⁾

• Postpaid net account additions of 299 thousand, best in industry
• Postpaid net customer additions of 1.6 million, best in industry and raising guidance
• Postpaid phone net customer additions of 760 thousand, best in industry and best Q2 in eight years
• Postpaid phone churn of 0.77%, best in industry for the first time ever and a record low
• High Speed Internet net customer additions of 509 thousand, more than AT&T, Verizon, Comcast and Charter combined for the 5^th consecutive quarter

— — — — —

T-Mobile’s 5G network covers 326 million people with more geographic coverage than AT&T and Verizon combined. 285 million people nationwide are covered by T-Mobile’s super-fast Ultra Capacity 5G, and the Un-carrier plans to reach 300 million people with Ultra Capacity this year.

 

[RedSpark]

3 hours ago, Paynefanbro said:

T‑Mobile Delivers Industry‑Leading Growth in Customers and Profitability in Q2 2023, Raises 2023 Guidance Again

https://www.t-mobile.com/news/business/t-mobile-q2-2023-earnings

 

Some impressive numbers!

Also… Merger synergies!

Raising 2023 Guidance

• Postpaid net customer additions are expected to be between 5.6 million and 5.9 million, an increase from prior guidance of 5.3 million to 5.7 million.
• Core Adjusted EBITDA, which is Adjusted EBITDA less lease revenues, is expected to be between $28.9 billion and $29.2 billion, an increase from prior guidance of $28.8 billion to $29.2 billion.
• Merger synergies are expected to be approximately $7.5 billion, an increase from prior guidance of $7.3 billion to $7.5 billion.
• Merger-related costs are expected to be approximately $1.0 billion before taxes. These costs are excluded from Core Adjusted EBITDA but will impact Net income, Net cash provided by operating activities and Adjusted Free Cash Flow.
• Net cash provided by operating activities, including payments for Merger-related costs, is expected to be between $18.0 billion and $18.3 billion, an increase from prior guidance of $17.9 billion to $18.3 billion.
• Cash purchases of property and equipment, including capitalized interest, are expected to be between $9.5 billion and $9.7 billion an increase from the prior guidance of $9.4 billion to $9.7 billion.
• Adjusted Free Cash Flow, including payments for Merger-related costs, is expected to be between $13.2 billion and $13.6 billion. Adjusted Free Cash Flow guidance does not assume any material net cash inflows from securitization.

[RedSpark]

We're currently on the Sprint Max Plan having been integrated into T-Mobile's billing system.

Anyone here make the switch from Sprint Max to Go5G Plus? T-Mobile is pushing it hard on the website.

How did the numbers work out? Worth doing?

[clbowens]

We are on one of the sprint freedom plans, we pay $148 a month (for 3 lines).  If T-Mobile allowed us to get the 3rd line free on their new Go5G Plus plan (that's only for new customers), then we would definitely switch to it.  But if we switched to that plan, we would be paying $185 a month.

[schmidtj]

Can you switch to Magenta Max? If yes and you don't get your phones from T-Mobile you can save some $$ on MM.

[clbowens]

5 minutes ago, schmidtj said:

Can you switch to Magenta Max? If yes and you don't get your phones from T-Mobile you can save some $$ on MM.

If you're asking me, no.  MM would be $170 a month, compared to what i'm paying now, $148.  That's JUST plan cost.

[jreuschl]

RIP Tidal for us. Replaced with Pandora premium on first line only.

[Grabber5.0]

23 hours ago, jreuschl said:

RIP Tidal for us. Replaced with Pandora premium on first line only.

First line only? Where did you find that? It wouldn't surprise me, because I think I only got the sign up text on my line, but it shows as active on all lines.

[Dkoellerwx]

A second n41 channel and 4xCA just went live in Omaha today! Perhaps other parts of the Nebraska/Iowa market as well, though it's difficult to say for sure due to the patchwork of B41 licenses across the state, still waiting on the auction to get that cleared up. Still waiting on that additional spectrum to get our primary channel up to 100Mhz.

[swintec]

i still have not been notified of the auto pay discount changes and still have my Amex processing the autopay payment.  Anyone else?  i thought maybe when i got moved to the tmobile biller it would kick in but still nothing.  maybe something to do with my plan?

[Yuhfhrh]

2 hours ago, swintec said:

i still have not been notified of the auto pay discount changes and still have my Amex processing the autopay payment.  Anyone else?  i thought maybe when i got moved to the tmobile biller it would kick in but still nothing.  maybe something to do with my plan?

You'll be notified eventually. They seem to have some minimum amount of time after migration before they'll kick you off credit card autopay, perhaps to try and prevent you from associating the migration with the autopay change.

[PythonFanPA]

On 8/3/2023 at 3:06 PM, clbowens said:

We are on one of the sprint freedom plans, we pay $148 a month (for 3 lines).  

 

Yeah same here, on Unlimited Freedom and only paying ~93/mo for 2 lines.  I have zero incentive to look at anything else currently....or at least I've seen nothing that would reduce that or otherwise provide more benefit for the same cost.

[swintec]

11 hours ago, Yuhfhrh said:

You'll be notified eventually. They seem to have some minimum amount of time after migration before they'll kick you off credit card autopay, perhaps to try and prevent you from associating the migration with the autopay change.

it has been 2 or 3 tmobile statements since the move.  how long have you been seeing this taking?

[Yuhfhrh]

1 hour ago, swintec said:

it has been 2 or 3 tmobile statements since the move.  how long have you been seeing this taking?

3 to 4 I after migration I think before you get the SMS. Just based off reports I've been seeing.

[RedSpark]

Another potential merger/acquisition in the hopper:

https://www.lightreading.com/5g-and-beyond/who-will-buy-uscellular/d/d-id/785995

This has been a long time coming...

[mikejeep]

6 hours ago, RedSpark said:

Another potential merger/acquisition in the hopper:

https://www.lightreading.com/5g-and-beyond/who-will-buy-uscellular/d/d-id/785995

This has been a long time coming...

USCC has a very good network in central/northern NH and Maine.. probably better than the Big 3 in most areas. I hope that if anything changes hands, that coverage remains accessible to T-Mobile customers in some fashion. It was more of a big deal pre-merger when Sprint had NO coverage in those areas, but they still beat T-Mobile in many areas, especially when you get away from the larger cities.

[Trip]

Yes, and I saw at least one analyst suggest that any buyer would just turn off the US Cellular network.  I certainly hope not!  I was a Sprint customer specifically because of roaming on that network!

[PedroDaGr8]

6 hours ago, Trip said:

Yes, and I saw at least one analyst suggest that any buyer would just turn off the US Cellular network.  I certainly hope not!  I was a Sprint customer specifically because of roaming on that network!

While US Cellular has great coverage in some needed areas (e.g., the rural areas near Mt. St. Helens in WA), the overall value of that kind coverage isn't great for any single player. The most plausible scenario I have heard is that a buyer would keep the spectrum licenses (selling off or trading those they don't need/want or are required to) and selling the towers off to a company like American Tower who would then do what they see fit with the towers. My guess is the tower company will mostly keep the towers online but it will be based on who they can lease to rather than a single contiguous entity.

 

As for who would be the buyer, ATT makes the most sense (by far) based on USC's spectrum holdings. That being said, there is enough value to be split up that a "corporate raider" type of company could try their hand as well. Any suggestions beyond that are rapidly going into sub-optimal fits.

 

Here's my quick(ish)  analysis of USC's spectrum holdings. Looking at them, I see a lot of value for AT&T and less value for TMO/VZW:

• The 600MHz Block
  • USC doesn't own a lot of this block but where they do, it mostly benefits TMO.
• The 700MHz Block is a bit more complex:
  • A-Block: With the exception of only a couple of places, US Cellular owns the license to this band where TMO does not. Were TMO to acquire these licenses, it could make the B71 to n71 conversion a lot less painful. 
  • B-Block: Much like TMO in the A-Block, US Cellular owns the vast majority of the licenses which ATT lacks. 
  • Lower C-Block: They don't own a lot in this block but where they do it could give ATT an easy 12-18MHz of contiguous low-band (when combined with the A and B  Block holdings). In the era of NR and FWA, this is HIGHLY valuable. 
  • Overall, ATT would benefit the most followed by T-Mobile. 
• 800MHz
  • USC owns assorted licenses, mostly in the 800MHz A-Block. ATT could find value in these holdings by expanding their A-Block geographic coverage. On the other hand, most are contiguous with Verizon's holdings in the B-Block which could allow VZW to expand their 800MHz bands.
• AWS and PCS Bands. 
  • Outside a couple of limited metros, USC really doesn't have a lot of valuable licenses that I can see in these bands. Mostly rural areas with no commonality in overlap with a single provider in the big 3. Not that these licenses aren't devoid of value but that they are likely more valuable split up and sold off to the various carriers than they are as a single holding. 
• EBS/BRS Band:
  • The BRS licenses which USC owns/leases in the WI area which T-Mobile would likely want to acquire (if the price was reasonable). Not a lot of value but clearly would be something T-Mobile would like to acquire. 
• 3.4GHz Band
  • USC owns a contiguous 40MHz block of 3.4GHz spectrum covering decent contiguous rural/semi-rural swaths of the US. ATT owns essentially all of the remaining blocks above these (and often where less than 40MHz, AT&T owns the other blocks) making them HIGHLY valuable for AT&T. This would allow AT&T to deploy up to 80MHz of contiguous 3.4GHz in the majority of these areas. 
• CBRS
  • USC doesn't own much valuable in this range. 
• 3.7GHz Band
  • USC's has substantial holdings in the C2-C4 Blocks. AT&T owns the C1 Block across essentially the entire US and REALLY significant holdings in the C2-C4 throughout the US. AT&T acquiring this spectrum would really benefit AT&T. There would also be a bit of benefit for TMO, as TMO owns the C3 and/or C4 blocks in some areas where USC doesn't. 
• mmWave
  • USC has a bunch of scattered holdings but in general they are in more rural areas making them really low value. As recent history has shown, the forte of mmWave at this time is in high density environments (the opposite of what USC holds). 

As you can see, a USC acquisition would put ATT on a much better/more equal footing to Verizon and TMO when it comes to mid-band. A USC acquisition would give them huge swaths of 80+MHz contiguous mid-band coverage, the kind of coverage that is needed for 5G and beyond.

That being said, it would also somewhat overload them on the low-band (especially in the 700MHz range), giving them too much of an advantage. I could see the Justice department requiring ATT to off-load some of their lower band holdings (namely the 600/700 MHz holdings) to TMO and/or Dish as a requirement of the acquisition. For TMO, who lacks low-band compared to VZW/ATT, this would put them on a much better low-band footing than before. 

As for Dish, they would benefit significantly from the improved raw spectrum holdings but I doubt they could easily utilize anytime soon. 

[Trip]

There are areas, including areas I've been to recently, where only US Cellular and AT&T have service.  Allowing that buyout in full would create a monopoly in those areas.  There are other areas where Verizon and US Cellular are it.

I'd expect a sale to AT&T or Verizon to look more like the Alltel buyout, where some pieces of the customer base and network end up going to someone else. 

- Trip

[dkyeager]

14 hours ago, PedroDaGr8 said:

While US Cellular has great coverage in some needed areas (e.g., the rural areas near Mt. St. Helens in WA), the overall value of that kind coverage isn't great for any single player. The most plausible scenario I have heard is that a buyer would keep the spectrum licenses (selling off or trading those they don't need/want or are required to) and selling the towers off to a company like American Tower who would then do what they see fit with the towers. My guess is the tower company will mostly keep the towers online but it will be based on who they can lease to rather than a single contiguous entity.

 

As for who would be the buyer, ATT makes the most sense (by far) based on USC's spectrum holdings. That being said, there is enough value to be split up that a "corporate raider" type of company could try their hand as well. Any suggestions beyond that are rapidly going into sub-optimal fits.

 

Here's my quick(ish)  analysis of USC's spectrum holdings. Looking at them, I see a lot of value for AT&T and less value for TMO/VZW:

• The 600MHz Block
  • USC doesn't own a lot of this block but where they do, it mostly benefits TMO.
• The 700MHz Block is a bit more complex:
  • A-Block: With the exception of only a couple of places, US Cellular owns the license to this band where TMO does not. Were TMO to acquire these licenses, it could make the B71 to n71 conversion a lot less painful. 
  • B-Block: Much like TMO in the A-Block, US Cellular owns the vast majority of the licenses which ATT lacks. 
  • Lower C-Block: They don't own a lot in this block but where they do it could give ATT an easy 12-18MHz of contiguous low-band (when combined with the A and B  Block holdings). In the era of NR and FWA, this is HIGHLY valuable. 
  • Overall, ATT would benefit the most followed by T-Mobile. 
• 800MHz
  • USC owns assorted licenses, mostly in the 800MHz A-Block. ATT could find value in these holdings by expanding their A-Block geographic coverage. On the other hand, most are contiguous with Verizon's holdings in the B-Block which could allow VZW to expand their 800MHz bands.
• AWS and PCS Bands. 
  • Outside a couple of limited metros, USC really doesn't have a lot of valuable licenses that I can see in these bands. Mostly rural areas with no commonality in overlap with a single provider in the big 3. Not that these licenses aren't devoid of value but that they are likely more valuable split up and sold off to the various carriers than they are as a single holding. 
• EBS/BRS Band:
  • The BRS licenses which USC owns/leases in the WI area which T-Mobile would likely want to acquire (if the price was reasonable). Not a lot of value but clearly would be something T-Mobile would like to acquire. 
• 3.4GHz Band
  • USC owns a contiguous 40MHz block of 3.4GHz spectrum covering decent contiguous rural/semi-rural swaths of the US. ATT owns essentially all of the remaining blocks above these (and often where less than 40MHz, AT&T owns the other blocks) making them HIGHLY valuable for AT&T. This would allow AT&T to deploy up to 80MHz of contiguous 3.4GHz in the majority of these areas. 
• CBRS
  • USC doesn't own much valuable in this range. 
• 3.7GHz Band
  • USC's has substantial holdings in the C2-C4 Blocks. AT&T owns the C1 Block across essentially the entire US and REALLY significant holdings in the C2-C4 throughout the US. AT&T acquiring this spectrum would really benefit AT&T. There would also be a bit of benefit for TMO, as TMO owns the C3 and/or C4 blocks in some areas where USC doesn't. 
• mmWave
  • USC has a bunch of scattered holdings but in general they are in more rural areas making them really low value. As recent history has shown, the forte of mmWave at this time is in high density environments (the opposite of what USC holds). 

As you can see, a USC acquisition would put ATT on a much better/more equal footing to Verizon and TMO when it comes to mid-band. A USC acquisition would give them huge swaths of 80+MHz contiguous mid-band coverage, the kind of coverage that is needed for 5G and beyond.

That being said, it would also somewhat overload them on the low-band (especially in the 700MHz range), giving them too much of an advantage. I could see the Justice department requiring ATT to off-load some of their lower band holdings (namely the 600/700 MHz holdings) to TMO and/or Dish as a requirement of the acquisition. For TMO, who lacks low-band compared to VZW/ATT, this would put them on a much better low-band footing than before. 

As for Dish, they would benefit significantly from the improved raw spectrum holdings but I doubt they could easily utilize anytime soon. 

Article material along with Trip's comments.

[iansltx]

So, AT&T isn't allowed to have more than 40 MHz of 3.45: https://www.comm-law.com/fcc-adopts-345-ghz-service-rules

They already have 40 nationwide I believe, and the auction was recent enough that they can't get more. So AT&T can't get the 3.45. T-Mobile can in basically any area where this is in play, while Dish largely can't. And there's no reason for the feds to go back on the 40 MHz limit for AT&T of all people, given that 3.7 GHz is clearing imminently and that'll leave AT&T with 120 MHz n77 for anything that can do 2CA NR or better (last three generations of Qualcomm flagship modems, and older than that for MediaTek stuff).

With 3.45 out of the picture, but still in play for T-Mobile, that shifts the balance more in favor of T-Mobile, though AT&T could probably still benefit more even after selling off 3.45 and 600. But it's not as cut-and-dry of a win, and AT&T might be forced to divest 700A as part of the acquisition.

[Paynefanbro]

12 hours ago, iansltx said:

So, AT&T isn't allowed to have more than 40 MHz of 3.45: https://www.comm-law.com/fcc-adopts-345-ghz-service-rules

I recalled this being the case but didn't know if I was misremembering. If T-Mobile is able to get it's hands on enough DoD spectrum to have 40MHz throughout much of rural America, that would make them super competitive in areas where Verizon has 200MHz of C-band. Especially since after T-Mobile receives its spectrum from Auction 110, they'll have nearly the entirety of BRS/EBS in much of rural America.

[cooltech6597]

Ultra Ultra Capacity?!??!?!?!?

https://galtronics.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/GP5124-07276-Datasheet_R3.pdf 

 

[dkyeager]

6 hours ago, cooltech6597 said:

Ultra Ultra Capacity?!??!?!?!?

https://galtronics.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/GP5124-07276-Datasheet_R3.pdf 

Downtown Cincy was pathetic for Sprint with T-Mobile just a bit better.  This is a must if they want to get out of third place with Rootmetrics for 2023 2nd half.  Hard to get new customers when the only notable score is texting ability in a three way tie and second place in network availability and data performance.

https://www.rootmetrics.com/en-US/rootscore/map/metro/cincinnati-oh/2023/1H