Official Tmobile-Sprint merger discussion thread

[MrZorbatron]

8 minutes ago, bigsnake49 said:

From my own observations, for data, it is Verizon first for coverage and consistency, then AT&T then T-Mobile. Voice wise it is Sprint in third place instead of T-Mobile.

I will generally agree with this, though in my area, T-Mobile has a lot more odd dead zones.

 

I rack up sometimes several thousand minutes on air per month.  I talk to someone for about an hour and a half a day on her way to and from work, and it drops on her end at least three times if she goes one way, and at least four another way.  This is right through my area, which is a very well-off place where people have nice phones, so phone companies make a lot of money.  We can start with a mile long mostly-dead zone in the middle of Oxford, continuing into the Orion Township border.  Next are two spots in Bloomfield Hills, and lastly one in Southfield.  This is ignoring countless spots with brief fading.

I can make that same drive with zero issues.  This is obviously not an exhaustive comparison, as not all networks have hardware in the same places, but it's a recurring theme around here when comparing T-Mobile and Sprint.  T-Mobile also has a lot more data outages than Sprint does.

[utiz4321]

15 minutes ago, bigsnake49 said:

As a Sprint customer you will see immediate benefits since you will be able to freely roam on T-Mobile's  data network. Voice integration will take a bit more.

I dont know if that is true. They have blue print for that in project fi but I dont know if they will make this available before the merger is approved.  Besides, the really exciting stuff is massive mimo on Sprint's side and 600 on t mobile. If those two things are delay I will be kind of bummed. 

[bigsnake49]

32 minutes ago, utiz4321 said:

I dont know if that is true. They have blue print for that in project fi but I dont know if they will make this available before the merger is approved.  Besides, the really exciting stuff is massive mimo on Sprint's side and 600 on t mobile. If those two things are delay I will be kind of bummed. 

It usually takes 180 days or less for the feds to make a decision. As soon as the merger is approved then the first and easiest thing is to let each other's customers roam on each other's network if the appropriate bands are available on the phones. Voice integration based on VOLTE with WCDMA will take a while longer. I expect that 600MHz expansion in rural areas not subject to repacking will proceed uninterrupted. I also expect small cell deployment to proceed uninterrupted. However macro expansion will probably be postponed. I expect massive mimo to proceed as scheduled.

[dro1984]

3 hours ago, utiz4321 said:

Yup, this is my biggest concern.  1 yr for the merger to get approved and 1 yr to integrate the two companies before they start building the network out would be annoying. 

Yes, my concern too, but I'm counting on Sprint doing what they do best.   Halt all network improvement work.  That's their standard operating procedure.  Did it when funds were low... did it with Nextel Merger...   So I plan on this, because then anything else will NOT be a disappointment.   But once again, unfortunately, we the user have no say in the way the company will handle the situation.  Hopefully they will realize that they can't afford to stop network improvements because it will be detrimental to customer adds and retention.   I don't think they will want to loose customers due to an ugly and poorly planned merger.  (lets hope not at least... )    Scary, but being a Sprint customer for 17 years,... I've been down this road before with them.

Edited September 25, 2017 by dro1984

[dro1984]

2 hours ago, bigsnake49 said:

It usually takes 180 days or less for the feds to make a decision. As soon as the merger is approved then the first and easiest thing is to let each other's customers roam on each other's network if the appropriate bands are available on the phones. Voice integration based on VOLTE with WCDMA will take a while longer. I expect that 600MHz expansion in rural areas not subject to repacking will proceed uninterrupted. I also expect small cell deployment to proceed uninterrupted. However macro expansion will probably be postponed. I expect massive mimo to proceed as scheduled.

Did any of you ever wonder like I just did now if this was said on purpose by Marcelo in the last call?   What did he say ... like 20,000 or more Macro adds?    It almost feels like carrot dangling again when in fact he was literally asked question #1 about merger status.  They can make all those wild claims of huge number of cell site additions so they look good to the Investment company's and communities with no real intention of holding true to that promise...  Whats your thoughts about this?   Was it real or was it just thrown out there to look great ?   I'm very suspicious now as the renewed on again merger info broke a matter of 2 days later!     

Edited September 25, 2017 by dro1984

[red_dog007]

Apparently the MiniMacros was an actual order placement.  But I don't know how long of a period a time this order is for.

[red_dog007]

3 hours ago, bigsnake49 said:

It usually takes 180 days or less for the feds to make a decision. As soon as the merger is approved then the first and easiest thing is to let each other's customers roam on each other's network if the appropriate bands are available on the phones. Voice integration based on VOLTE with WCDMA will take a while longer. I expect that 600MHz expansion in rural areas not subject to repacking will proceed uninterrupted. I also expect small cell deployment to proceed uninterrupted. However macro expansion will probably be postponed. I expect massive mimo to proceed as scheduled.

I'd just wonder how long it would take to get the networks to mesh.  How integrated would they need to be to have seemless handoffs, especially with voice.  Then how long will this integration take to get to that point. That's if they even integrate networks. Maybe they could say just point Sprint's equipment to TMobile's servers, push some updates and be integrated.  Not knowing a thing about how their networks work, this is the grey area and the area I'd be concerned with.

 For data, I can see just open up bands to each others customers, retransmit requests/packets if hopping networks.  But not sure that will go well for VoLTE.  Plus there could be a lot of lost packets which wouldn't be good for a lot of services.  I'd imagine at first say as a Sprint customer I would be able to use the TMobile network, but when the phone scans it would scan for Sprint channels first then scan for TMobile if it can't find Sprint.

 

[RedSpark]

2 hours ago, dro1984 said:

Did any of you ever wonder like I just did now if this was said on purpose by Marcelo in the last call?   What did he say ... like 20,000 or more Macro adds?    It almost feels like carrot dangling again when in fact he was literally asked question #1 about merger status.  They can make all those wild claims of huge number of cell site additions so they look good to the Investment company's and communities with no real intention of holding true to that promise...  Whats your thoughts about this?   Was it real or was it just thrown out there to look great ?   I'm very suspicious now as the renewed on again merger info broke a matter of 2 days later!     

If we take Sprint’s Executives at their word, Sprint is moving expeditiously on the network now that the debt load has been addressed.

Marcelo: http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4107108

[bigsnake49]

2 hours ago, red_dog007 said:

I'd just wonder how long it would take to get the networks to mesh.  How integrated would they need to be to have seemless handoffs, especially with voice.  Then how long will this integration take to get to that point. That's if they even integrate networks. Maybe they could say just point Sprint's equipment to TMobile's servers, push some updates and be integrated.  Not knowing a thing about how their networks work, this is the grey area and the area I'd be concerned with.

 For data, I can see just open up bands to each others customers, retransmit requests/packets if hopping networks.  But not sure that will go well for VoLTE.  Plus there could be a lot of lost packets which wouldn't be good for a lot of services.  I'd imagine at first say as a Sprint customer I would be able to use the TMobile network, but when the phone scans it would scan for Sprint channels first then scan for TMobile if it can't find Sprint.

 

Ultimately they will need to choose one of the  EPCs and integrate around that. Then each enodeB will need to be pointed to the EPC and each integrated site will need to be assigned to each enodeB. VOLTE and SVRCC/WCDMA fallback will be the voice solution but will take time. 

[dkyeager]

12 hours ago, dro1984 said:

Yes, my concern too, but I'm counting on Sprint doing what they do best.   Halt all network improvement work.  That's their standard operating procedure.  Did it when funds were low... did it with Nextel Merger...   So I plan on this, because then anything else will NOT be a disappointment.   But once again, unfortunately, we the user have no say in the way the company will handle the situation.  Hopefully they will realize that they can't afford to stop network improvements because it will be detrimental to customer adds and retention.   I don't think they will want to loose customers due to an ugly and poorly planned merger.  (lets hope not at least... )    Scary, but being a Sprint customer for 17 years,... I've been down this road before with them.

The smart road is to continue all work (or at least work in progress) as a substantial number of mergers fail in the final stages.  Even nTelos managed to put up a lot of LTE right before they were officially acquired.   Hopefully it will be different this time for Sprint. 

 

This merger could be very much like the Verizon-Vodaphone merger to setup Verizon Wireless.  Softbank could end up with about 30% and Deutsche Telekom with 39%.  Will Softbank acquire more shares later or quietly cash out?

[bigsnake49]

To add to my previous post, it will take them a little while to physically consolidate the sites so that they're using the same equipment rack and the same base stations will probably take couple of years. Also they could probably start using CA on 1900Mhz right away but they have to wait for spectrum swaps to deploy wider channels.

The integration will be a technical challenge but I am sure that when complete will result in a very vigorous network.

[dro1984]

What a combined T-Mobile and Sprint network would look like from BGR:

What a combined Network of T-Mobile and Sprint would look like

Edited September 27, 2017 by dro1984

[dkyeager]

The question is how much bandwidth will they be allowed to retain by the FCC. For the nTelos merger it was 205 iirc.  Dividing by 3 instead of 4 would give 270 or so, but I have no idea how they actually calculate this.  You do have 600mhz going online by T-Mobile since this was calculated.  Verizon and AT&T have also bought high band spectrum for 5g. 

[cletus]

100% for the merger. A friend of mine seems to love his combined coverage with Google Fi.

 

Also, hello everyone it has been a year and a half since I posted here.

[twospirits]

I posted this in the Marcelo thread, but I'll post it here as well just in case.

 

Interesting podcast with Craig Moffett about the Sprint and T-Mobile merger. The merger, 5G and everything in between.

Deal of the Week: Sprint and T-Mobile May Finally Do It.

TS out

[bigsnake49]

T-Mobile/Sprint will have 67.7 postpaid subscribers with 77 million and 109 million for AT&T and Verizon. Still weak compared to AT&T and definitely Verizon.

Edited September 27, 2017 by bigsnake49

[dro1984]

Food for Thought:   

What will happen to Shentel Wireless (does Sprint have any others?) if the merger gets announced?   

I see T-Mobile just bought out the remaining intereste of Iowa Wireless... (sounds like prepping for you-know-what)...  

I thinking back of the debacled Sprint/Nextel merger where Sprint ended up getting sued multiple times until it had to buy 99% of it's and Nextel's Affiliates out?    Have a feeling Shentel will have an issue with Sprint because T-Mobile has coverage in their area.   

What do you all think?

Edited September 27, 2017 by dro1984

[Rawvega]

44 minutes ago, dro1984 said:

Food for Thought:   

What will happen to Shentel Wireless (does Sprint have any others?) if the merger gets announced?   

I see T-Mobile just bought out the remaining intereste of Iowa Wireless... (sounds like prepping for you-know-what)...  

I thinking back of the debacled Sprint/Nextel merger where Sprint ended up getting sued multiple times until it had to buy 99% of it's and Nextel's Affiliates out?    Have a feeling Shentel will have an issue with Sprint because T-Mobile has coverage in their area.   

What do you all think?

I imagine that the combined entity would purchase the network from Shentel. Shentel's CEO or CFO addressed that possibility and the choices that would be available to a combined Sprint/T-Mobile on their last earnings call.

[dro1984]

Wish I would have heard that.  I just wondered because they utilize so much of Sprint's Spectrum in their service area.   

Can you share what the options were?   I cannot pull up the transcripts.

Edited September 27, 2017 by dro1984

[Rawvega]

27 minutes ago, dro1984 said:

Wish I would have heard that.  I just wondered because they utilize so much of Sprint's Spectrum in their service area.   

Can you share what the options were?   I cannot pull up the transcripts.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4093772-shenandoah-telecommunications-shen-ceo-christopher-french-q2-2017-results-earnings-call?part=single

Quote

But briefly, there is a waterfall of events that happen in the event that they merge with T-Mobile. First, we agree not to file an injunction to try to stop the merger.

 

Second, T-Mobile, within 60 days of the closing of the transaction, T-Sprint would have the option to buy our wireless business using the same formula that's in the contract at -- in for 2029, which basically is, we get valued at full value assuming we own the spectrum and the brand to investment bankers using a discounted cash flow model. If they are within 5% -- 10% of each other, we split the difference. If they are greater than that, we get a third bank involved. But ultimately, we get paid 90% of that amount, because we don't own the spectrum and brand. Our opinion is that there is a very low probability that T-Sprint would want to do that, because neither Sprint nor T-Mobile have a great rule strategy. In the event that they do not buy us, then it flips the other way. We have the option to purchase all the T-Mobile customers and network in our footprint at $0.75 on the dollar of the value of the merger.

So using as an example, assuming that customers were valued at $1,000 a piece, we could buy all the T-Mobile customers and network in our footprint at $750 a piece, immediately accretive to our shareholders. In the event that we can't finance it, T-Sprint would finance it for 5 years at their cost of money. And in the event that we decided we didn't want to buy the networking customers, T-Sprint would have to turn off the competing network within 2 years.

 

[S4GRU]

5 hours ago, cletus said:

Also, hello everyone it has been a year and a half since I posted here.

Glad to see you back.  You were missed.

[bigsnake49]

On 9/25/2017 at 10:12 PM, RedSpark said:

If we take Sprint’s Executives at their word, Sprint is moving expeditiously on the network now that the debt load has been addressed.

Marcelo: http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4107108

Not necessarily the debt load but the interest on that debt load ($2.5B/year). They have been and will be working to reduce the 7 and 8% and higher loans into 3% by basically borrowing against the spectrum and their network and the device financing. They can use the savings to accelerate network spending or paying down the principal. 

In that transcript, Claure more than once mentioned that he wants to address the device acquisition and financing part. Maybe let Apple and Samsung or whoever finance the devices and the carriers get a 5% finders fee?

Edited September 27, 2017 by bigsnake49

[WiWavelength]

12 hours ago, dro1984 said:

What a combined T-Mobile and Sprint network would look like from BGR:

What a combined Network of T-Mobile and Sprint would look like

"I believe that some of those figures may be in-ock-urate."

AJ

[Thomas L.]

Four seems to be the magic number for competition, France had three carriers and Canada has three carriers, both having awful prices and customer service. When France added Free, a fourth carrier (the French T-Mobile), prices dropped dramatically. Canada of course still has three providers and has the most expensive wireless service in the developed world after the US. If this merger happens, nothing good will come of it. I am crossing my fingers it fails. 

[utiz4321]

1 hour ago, Thomas L. said:

Four seems to be the magic number for competition, France had three carriers and Canada has three carriers, both having awful prices and customer service. When France added Free, a fourth carrier (the French T-Mobile), prices dropped dramatically. Canada of course still has three providers and has the most expensive wireless service in the developed world after the US. If this merger happens, nothing good will come of it. I am crossing my fingers it fails. 

There is no “magic number” that is good in every country on earth.  That is just magical thinking. Each country is different in many key ways: number of pops, land mass, regulations, etc... all that goes into determining the proper size of the market, Canada probably has too many players.