Official Tmobile-Sprint merger discussion thread

[dro1984]

6 minutes ago, bigsnake49 said:

Yeah, eventually the prices will rise. They have already risen from the bottom reached couple of years ago. Those lower prices are what have driven Sprint to the edge of bankruptcy. If you can't have enough of a cash flow, you can't invest in capex, if you don't have enough of a capex, you are going to fall further behind on the network side, if you fall further behind, customers will leave. Sprint can show them what low prices have led to. How many jobs were lost in order for them to be marginally afloat. How much capex was foregone, how  bad their back end systems are. How much they have to invest in order for them to be competitive on the network side.Show them that due to their lower customer numbers they don't have the scale. Due to smaller scale, the cost per customer goes up.

Prices will eventually rise because the new T-Mobile will have to invest in infrastructure to increase its coverage and capacity. If you want ubiquitous coverage you have to pay for it. 

I agree.  It seems common sense disappears in all of this, especially the states attorney generals.  They know this.... but I'm afraid this is political driven.    Lets hope the judge see through this attempted control of free business.    They are in business to make money after all... the entire premise to keep prices low for 5-7 years is crap! (Price controls- Hello dictator Government)   You should not control free market business like this or we fail as a free market.  It's a nice guarantee but not one the government should buy into or put value on.   

Edited December 10, 2019 by dro1984

[bigsnake49]

8 minutes ago, dro1984 said:

I agree.  It seems common sense disappears in all of this, especially the states attorney generals.  They know this.... but I'm afraid this is political driven.    Lets hope the judge see through this attempted control of free business.    They are in business to make money after all... the entire premise to keep prices low for 5-7 years is crap! (Price controls- Hello dictator Government)   You should not control free market business like this or we fail as a free market.  It's a nice guarantee but not one the government should buy into or put value on.   

Look I understand that Sprint customers value price over everything else, I do. I am one of them, I only signed up for one of those $15/month deals because it was so cheap. My main lines are through Spectrum. But I don't think that my $15/month will contribute much to Sprint's capex and debt repayment. 

[dro1984]

7 minutes ago, bigsnake49 said:

Look I understand that Sprint customers value price over everything else, I do. I am one of them, I only signed up for one of those $15/month deals because it was so cheap. My main lines are through Spectrum. But I don't think that my $15/month will contribute much to Sprint's capex and debt repayment. 

We all like a great deal and that's just my point... It generates no real positive cash flow for a business.   

You can't live as a business like this over and over again.      If it costs you $4 to bake a loaf of bread, you can't keep selling it for $2.99 and also pay your employees.   

[RedSpark]

32 minutes ago, dro1984 said:

Before Masa opens up the "checkbook", pigs will grow wings and fly.    He has an attention span of 5 mins.   He just keeps investing in anything crazy and unusual...

SoftBank’s Masa Son still trusts his gut and isn’t done splashing billions on ‘crazy’ entrepreneurs

With this kind of flakiness, there is no hope for him to come back to Sprint to spend money.    He'll just let it wither to the point of bankruptcy.     So Redspark, wishing for a no merger is a waste of time.   You will end up getting nothing either way.    Unless your stance was to "punish" Masa .... It's pocket change to him.   He could care less!  You stock is what it is... only possibly worthless in bankruptcy.    You're only hope is the stock swap of a merger.   

I don’t want to bail out Masa and Marcelo.

Sprint’s bankruptcy fears are planted and overstated by PR teams to promote the merger. People have been saying that for years and it hasn’t happened yet.

I believe it will take a shareholder uprising to set things back on course.

[tommym65]

7 minutes ago, RedSpark said:

I don’t want to bail out Masa and Marcelo.

Sprint’s bankruptcy fears are planted and overstated by PR teams to promote the merger. People have been saying that for years and it hasn’t happened yet.

I believe it will take a shareholder uprising to set things back on course.

Umm, 85% of Sprint shares are owned by Softbank. I don't think they are likely to support an uprising. 

[RedSpark]

5 minutes ago, tommym65 said:

Umm, 85% of Sprint shares are owned by Softbank. I don't think they are likely to support an uprising. 

Then they can sink with the ship as far as I’m concerned. I refuse to have a merger bail them out.

[dro1984]

I hear you RedSpark... while I don't completely agree, I do respect your frustration.   I have frustration with Sprint too.   Hopefully it will be alieved in the next 9 days once this trial is complete.   

Edited December 10, 2019 by dro1984

[Flompholph]

9 day to complete the case? lol This thing is going to go on for another a year plus if the states want to push it. This court by itself could take a month+ then on to appeals.

Has anyone posted the court filings yet? They are public but I think someone needs to buy them some how then they can repost the court filings.

[dro1984]

1 hour ago, Flompholph said:

9 day to complete the case? lol This thing is going to go on for another a year plus if the states want to push it. This court by itself could take a month+ then on to appeals.

Has anyone posted the court filings yet? They are public but I think someone needs to buy them some how then they can repost the court filings.

Guess you didn't read much of any of the headlines?...   The judge wants to make this a quick case.  10  day max.   Today is day 2.    He ordered both sides to reduce their # of people testifying and removed the opening arguments.  Said it was a waste of time.   He already heard the details.   I'd say he means business.   

Edited December 10, 2019 by dro1984

[Trip]

If the case runs 10 business days, that takes us to 12/20.  Then the judge has to write a decision--during the holidays.  I'd be shocked to see anything at all before January.

Then, as Flompholph says, they could appeal.

- Trip

[Flompholph]

With how reporters are twisting things today(no matter what side of the coin you are on. The other side is twisting things.) no I don't trust them that is why I asked for source material. 

The "x days" is a reference to the judge setting a bench trial "A bench trial is scheduled before this Court from December 9 through December 20, 2019." It doesn't say I will have a written judgement by the 19th. If you want to tell yourself 9 days be my guess just don't give others hope this train wreck will be over any time soon. 

[dkyeager]

35 minutes ago, Flompholph said:

With how reporters are twisting things today(no matter what side of the coin you are on. The other side is twisting things.) no I don't trust them that is why I asked for source material. 

The "x days" is a reference to the judge setting a bench trial "A bench trial is scheduled before this Court from December 9 through December 20, 2019." It doesn't say I will have a written judgement by the 19th. If you want to tell yourself 9 days be my guess just don't give others hope this train wreck will be over any time soon. 

 

February for a decision is what I am reading.  Then there could be appeals. Lawyers fees are small potatoes for both sides. Opportunity cost is the biggest factor for both sides.

Let's go worst case.  Merger fails.  Not certain that would mean bankruptcy. You would need to look at who holds the bonds.  Possible if Masa does, but otherwise unlikely.

Much more likely: Sprint sells or gives away business in worst markets, ie those markets without VoLTE.  Another option would be to divest from uncooperative states by dividing into two companies, then merge the other portion. Network sharing maybe, but could be ruled collusion.  Then sellout to Cable companies, Dish, etc.  Go with the most money, which might be piecemeal.

[RedSpark]

13 minutes ago, dkyeager said:

 

February for a decision is what I am reading.  Then there could be appeals. Lawyers fees are small potatoes for both sides. Opportunity cost is the biggest factor for both sides.

Let's go worst case.  Merger fails.  Not certain that would mean bankruptcy. You would need to look at who holds the bonds.  Possible if Masa does, but otherwise unlikely.

Much more likely: Sprint sells or gives away business in worst markets, ie those markets without VoLTE.  Another option would be to divest from uncooperative states by dividing into two companies, then merge the other portion. Network sharing maybe, but could be ruled collusion.  Then sellout to Cable companies, Dish, etc.  Go with the most money, which might be piecemeal.

Is Sprint really teetering that badly that this would happen that quickly?

[bigsnake49]

1 hour ago, Flompholph said:

With how reporters are twisting things today(no matter what side of the coin you are on. The other side is twisting things.) no I don't trust them that is why I asked for source material. 

The "x days" is a reference to the judge setting a bench trial "A bench trial is scheduled before this Court from December 9 through December 20, 2019." It doesn't say I will have a written judgement by the 19th. If you want to tell yourself 9 days be my guess just don't give others hope this train wreck will be over any time soon. 

I am going to say 2 weeks max for this trial. The judge is my kind of judge: make your argument, make it quick, skip the bullshit. Defense, what do you have to counteract the plaintiffs argument. He does not want the lawyers pontificating from the podium. One thing that I have not seen addressed yet is one of standing. Which is to say, the states have no standing to sue, the feds are the interstate regulators and they have crafted a good agreement to save Sprint and create a new competitor. 

[bigsnake49]

27 minutes ago, RedSpark said:

Is Sprint really teetering that badly that this would happen that quickly?

I think they would probably declare Chapter 11 soon after the merger is not approved. 

[derrph]

I think they would probably declare Chapter 11 soon after the merger is not approved. 

 

Plus they’d need a whole revamp of the brand from the ground up.

 

What truly sets Sprint apart from its peers? Is seems like they are lost in identity. I don’t think they are a value brand no more. Comparing the cost of my Sprint line and my Verizon line, the diff is $0. Sprint did cost more with that god awful account spending limit that needs to go away. I wonder why they haven’t?

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[dkyeager]

2 hours ago, RedSpark said:

Is Sprint really teetering that badly that this would happen that quickly?

Bankruptcy is a business tool.  Sprint's biggest problem is its debt load. Bankruptcy was a real possibility when Masa first got involved. Another option would be to sell Boost. 

This dragged on merger has cost Sprint in terms of reputation.  A big time advertising campaign would be required to explain what they have been doing to the network.

The key issue to tackle would be backhaul which would come out of operating thus P&L.  Sprint needs a Cricket type solution -- pay for the maximum speed you want.

[dkyeager]

On a capital raised basis Sprint does not look bankrupt at all.  The number of site improvements doing since the merger was announced is astounding.  Most of the sites in my market have been touched, most Clear sites tribanded, new sites made, small cells multiplied, Massive MIMO installed in dozens of places with more permits added just a few weeks ago.  They have more macro sites in my market than T-Mobile, a ton of small cells where T-Mobile has almost none.  Yet this work does not show in root metrics.  RF engineers from other firms have all said Sprint is short of backhaul as their key problem.  They blame management, which I believe is the key reason Masa wants this merger.

[RedSpark]

14 hours ago, dkyeager said:

On a capital raised basis Sprint does not look bankrupt at all.  The number of site improvements doing since the merger was announced is astounding.  Most of the sites in my market have been touched, most Clear sites tribanded, new sites made, small cells multiplied, Massive MIMO installed in dozens of places with more permits added just a few weeks ago.  They have more macro sites in my market than T-Mobile, a ton of small cells where T-Mobile has almost none.  Yet this work does not show in root metrics.  RF engineers from other firms have all said Sprint is short of backhaul as their key problem.  They blame management, which I believe is the key reason Masa wants this merger.

That explains a lot actually. I’ve wondered why I’d have excellent signal and not reach higher peak speeds. Pings would be ok. No evidence of congestion. It’s the limited backhaul. Of course, there are a number of areas in DC/MD/VA where the network performance reflects severely limited Capex beyond insufficient backhaul.

[RedSpark]

https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/t-mobile-feeling-very-good-after-first-day-trial
 

Guess T-Mobile feels good about things? I’m glad that the judge is hustling this along.

[S4GRU]

If there is no merger, it is not all gloom and doom.  Sprint is a healthier company now than it has been in the past.  It will really come down to how it would play the future competitive landscape and whether having too compete too low on price while building out an expensive new upgrade again ends up being too much in the long run.  There is no imminence of doom.  And there is no guarantee that the other will fare as well, either.

If Sprint keeps improving its network and keeps prices low, it steadily drains money from their competitors too.  Sprint does not have to be perfect to be a disruptor.  And soon there would be no Legere at Tmo.  Who knows how a post Legere Tmo works out in the long run?  No need for dire predictions at this point!  And as a Verizon and Tmo customer also, I can tell you it ain't all unicorns and fairy dust over on the other networks.  People are expecting a huge difference, and for the most part, they find a slight difference. 

We have seen a lot of people come back to Sprint in these forums the past 12-18 months, all saying the same thing.  They expected their digital life to come alive leaving Sprint, and then they just find they get poorer month over month.  Then come back and find the network is even better since they left.

Robert

[bigsnake49]

14 hours ago, dkyeager said:

On a capital raised basis Sprint does not look bankrupt at all.  The number of site improvements doing since the merger was announced is astounding.  Most of the sites in my market have been touched, most Clear sites tribanded, new sites made, small cells multiplied, Massive MIMO installed in dozens of places with more permits added just a few weeks ago.  They have more macro sites in my market than T-Mobile, a ton of small cells where T-Mobile has almost none.  Yet this work does not show in root metrics.  RF engineers from other firms have all said Sprint is short of backhaul as their key problem.  They blame management, which I believe is the key reason Masa wants this merger.

While I applaud all that work they have done lately, it was all borrowed money. Their debt load increased from all the capex spending. There's no magic in this. You spend money your network improves. You spend money you don't have, your debt increases.

Edited December 11, 2019 by bigsnake49

[bigsnake49]

45 minutes ago, RedSpark said:

https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/t-mobile-feeling-very-good-after-first-day-trial
 

Guess T-Mobile feels good about things? I’m glad that the judge is hustling this along.

Same here, this merger has taken way too long to either complete or reject.

Edited December 11, 2019 by bigsnake49

[BlueAngel]

49 minutes ago, RedSpark said:

That explains a lot actually. I’ve wondered why I’d have excellent signal and not reach higher peak speeds. Pings would be ok. No evidence of congestion. It’s the limited backhaul. Of course, there are a number of areas in DC/MD/VA where the network performance reflects severely limited Capex beyond insufficient backhaul.

If Sprint increased backhaul the network would greatly improve.

[RedSpark]

2 minutes ago, BlueAngel said:

If Sprint increased backhaul the network would greatly improve.

True. But that could affect their merger prospects.