Official Tmobile-Sprint merger discussion thread

[dewbertdc]

10 minutes ago, dro1984 said:

I want to keep the guy's identity safe for work reasons.. you can understand that....  I'd rather not blast it around as to who he is.  If I give the link, everyone can go there and replay...then you'll find out   You'll just have to wait and trust.   Like I said, he was live and speaking remotely...    He's a tower tech for Sprint... soon to be transitioned to T Mobile.     He said their jobs are safe due to the extensive work scheduled after April 1.  Lots of overtime.     

I'd argue that the guy lost any right to anonymity when he discussed this on a (presumably public) YouTube channel, but sure... 

[bigsnake49]

Just remember that T-Mobile and Sprit are colocated on a lot of sites or the sites are very close. They will only use 11,000 of Sprint sites to host T-Mobile equipment for either capacity or coverage.

[Trip]

12 minutes ago, bigsnake49 said:

Just remember that T-Mobile and Sprit are colocated on a lot of sites or the sites are very close. They will only use 11,000 of Sprint sites to host T-Mobile equipment for either capacity or coverage.

Indeed.  I did an analysis along those lines nearly two years ago:

Just for kicks, I pulled up Spotsylvania County again, and now there are more sites total (25).  Of those, 12 are co-located.  One of the Sprint sites is a DAS antenna that is in the shadow of a new T-Mobile macro.  Two T-Mobile sites are not co-located with Sprint, while nine of the Sprint/Shentel sites are not co-located with T-Mobile.

Because it exposes site locations, I've put a map link in the old DC thread in the Interactive Map forum. 

- Trip

[bigsnake49]

I wonder if Dish will be deploying their equipment on decommissioned Sprint sites immediately or wait. From what I understand their capex for this year was going to be around $500M which will probably not be conducive to immediate deployment on decommissioned Sprint sites.

[Brad The Beast]

I think US Cellular is a bit salty because they know their roaming revenue is about to plummet and their roaming costs are about to go up...

https://www.uscellular.com/sprexit?utm_campaign=uscc_20_ffp_ac_post_na_na_ps&utm_source=snapchat&utm_medium=psoc

[JDP121]

57 minutes ago, Brad The Beast said:

I think US Cellular is a bit salty because they know their roaming revenue is about to plummet and their roaming costs are about to go up...

https://www.uscellular.com/sprexit?utm_campaign=uscc_20_ffp_ac_post_na_na_ps&utm_source=snapchat&utm_medium=psoc

I would say that they are very very salty about it. But that’s just my two cents. 

[bigsnake49]

8 hours ago, JDP121 said:

I would say that they are very very salty about it. But that’s just my two cents. 

I would like to see what the overlap is between USCC and T-Mobile.I think that C-Spire might be hurting more.

Edited February 26, 2020 by bigsnake49

[bigsnake49]

CPUC T-Mobile/Sprint meeting scheduled for April 16th:

 

[dro1984]

4 minutes ago, bigsnake49 said:

CPUC T-Mobile/Sprint meeting scheduled for April 16th:   

 

Yeah, I heard that yesterday too.   The 16th is the end of the 30day period.    Something happens before then on March 12 or 14th... can't remember what.       I'm trying to find info on it... where are you seeing it?  My normal sources are turning up empty.      Do you think they'll still "close" on April 1st?    

Edited February 26, 2020 by dro1984

[bigsnake49]

1 minute ago, dro1984 said:

Yeah, I heard that yesterday too.   The 16th is the end of the 30day period.    Something happens before then on March 12 or 14th... can't remember what.       I'm trying to find info on it... where are you seeing it?  My normal sources are turning up empty.  

Sprint subreddit

[dro1984]

I was able to find this on "Politico":

"— California Attorney General Xavier Becerra, one of the states that led the challenge, hasn’t yet said whether he would seek an appeal, but officials with his office have noted that CPUC’s decision is still outstanding. The agency could seek additional conditions on the deal before it gives approval. The CPUC’s in-house judge is expected to issue a preliminary decision before March 13."

[bigsnake49]

The California regulator, which hasn’t set a date for a vote, has until July 12 to make its decision. The CPUC could vote on the deal at its March 12 meeting, Blair Levin, policy advisor at New Street Research, said in a Tuesday note.

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/tech-and-telecom-law/sprint-t-mobile-still-need-ok-from-california-utility-regulator

If the Californians are as smart as they think they are they would extract some concessions such as rural coverage and maybe contributions to some economically disadvantaged fund. 

Edited February 26, 2020 by bigsnake49

[dro1984]

Thanks snake... do you still think all lights are green for 4-1?     (I'm hoping.)

[bigsnake49]

10 minutes ago, dro1984 said:

Thanks snake... do you still think all lights are green for 4-1?     (I'm hoping.)

Yep it's a go no matter what.There is another case pending against the merger. From the article above:

"The merger also faces a legal challenge from the Communications Workers of America, which argues that the Federal Communications Commission exceeded its statutory authority in approving the deal. That case is pending before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. Oral arguments have yet to be scheduled. 

Communications Workers of America v. USA, D.C. Cir., No. 19-01254, filed 12/5/19."

Edited February 26, 2020 by bigsnake49

[dkyeager]

22 hours ago, bigsnake49 said:

Just remember that T-Mobile and Sprit are colocated on a lot of sites or the sites are very close. They will only use 11,000 of Sprint sites to host T-Mobile equipment for either capacity or coverage.

I am not certain this number is still true.  With Dish getting the sites they abandon, the inclination would likely be to retain more Sprint sites. FCC may have forced more rural coverage given 1x800 coverage compared to VoLTE.  We know T-Mobile went through several revisions after those numbers were made public.  Might be better numbers in the merger court decision.

[dro1984]

I'm hoping they do some sort of Merger Briefing soon.    Hopefully they will disclose the game plan with some numbers thrown in... cell sites, moving customers on or so-forth... a lot of what we are going on is information from almost 1-1 1/2 years ago.   When and if they do, it will be a great meeting to tune into for details!  

Edited February 26, 2020 by dro1984

[bigsnake49]

24 minutes ago, dkyeager said:

I am not certain this number is still true.  With Dish getting the sites they abandon, the inclination would likely be to retain more Sprint sites. FCC may have forced more rural coverage given 1x800 coverage compared to VoLTE.  We know T-Mobile went through several revisions after those numbers were made public.  Might be better numbers in the merger court decision.

The combined carrier expects to save $26 billion in network costs and another $17 billion in other operating costs while increasing network coverage, particularly in underserved markets; and speeding up its expansion of 5G. Those network savings include $4.2 billion in opex savings from retiring Sprint’s network. New T-Mobile will add Sprint’s mid-band spectrum plus 11,000 cell sites to its network, and those will “provide it with enough additional capacity to meet the markets’ projected growth in data consumption and thus avoid the erosion in quality of service that would result from saturating its existing capacity.”

https://www.rcrwireless.com/20200219/carriers/insights-from-the-sprint-t-mobile-us-merger-ruling-part-3

Dish “may utilize any and all cell sites that New T-Mobile would otherwise decommission, gaining access to tens of thousands of cell towers ready for almost immediate use,” and it will also have access to retail stores that New T-Mobile would otherwise close, so it can expand its distribution. Marrero also said that in addition to at least 20,000 towers that New T-Mobile will make available to Dish, Dish “has also identified and signed master service agreements for 32,300 towers that do not need structural reinforcement and thus could become operational in relatively short order.”

https://www.rcrwireless.com/20200225/carriers/insights-from-the-sprint-t-mobile-us-merger-ruling-part-5

 

[dkyeager]

30 minutes ago, bigsnake49 said:

The combined carrier expects to save $26 billion in network costs and another $17 billion in other operating costs while increasing network coverage, particularly in underserved markets; and speeding up its expansion of 5G. Those network savings include $4.2 billion in opex savings from retiring Sprint’s network. New T-Mobile will add Sprint’s mid-band spectrum plus 11,000 cell sites to its network, and those will “provide it with enough additional capacity to meet the markets’ projected growth in data consumption and thus avoid the erosion in quality of service that would result from saturating its existing capacity.”

https://www.rcrwireless.com/20200219/carriers/insights-from-the-sprint-t-mobile-us-merger-ruling-part-3

Dish “may utilize any and all cell sites that New T-Mobile would otherwise decommission, gaining access to tens of thousands of cell towers ready for almost immediate use,” and it will also have access to retail stores that New T-Mobile would otherwise close, so it can expand its distribution. Marrero also said that in addition to at least 20,000 towers that New T-Mobile will make available to Dish, Dish “has also identified and signed master service agreements for 32,300 towers that do not need structural reinforcement and thus could become operational in relatively short order.”

https://www.rcrwireless.com/20200225/carriers/insights-from-the-sprint-t-mobile-us-merger-ruling-part-5

 

Good work. Here are the numbers that were origanally thrown around: https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/a-merged-sprint-t-mobile-will-shutter-25-000-towers-and-crown-castle-will-suffer-most

[greenbastard]

4 hours ago, bigsnake49 said:

If the Californians are as smart as they think they are 

They're not. 

[briank86]

Do u know for a fact they haven't received some concessions already, and are negotiating further? 

[bigsnake49]

8 minutes ago, briank86 said:

Do u know for a fact they haven't received some concessions already, and are negotiating further? 

We don't unless somebody leaks something to the press.

[Trip]

Shentel has posted their 4Q results, and there's a slide (page 7) in the presentation reiterating the three options.  That implies to me that they have not reached an agreement with T-Mobile.

https://investor.shentel.com/static-files/130ca6df-6deb-4f91-bdf0-aa2cfbdbff2c

- Trip

[Trip]

On the Shentel call:  "Very preliminary discussions" are all they've had.  They expect them to ramp up over the coming weeks.

- Trip

[Trip]

Q&A: 

Assuming 4/1 closing, 180 days to negotiate addendum to agreement, then if they can't agree, 60 days for T-Mobile to exercise purchase option, then 60 days for Shentel to exercise purchase option.  Could negotiate something outside the agreement, as we know.

Shentel Boost/Virgin is excluded from Dish sale.  Any Dish arrangement does not touch Shentel right now.

Shentel penetration (pre-nTelos) was mid-20%.  Some subsets of historic areas are "approaching 50%."  Goal is to get to 20% market share when expansion areas are included.  Would hope that is easier with T-Mobile brand.  Asked to speculate on T-Mobile's share in Shentel areas, estimates it's half of Shentel's penetration.

Asked about Richmond sliver, don't expect much growth here until 2021, and from just before Q&A, noted cap ex is mostly at maintenance level.

Call is over.

- Trip

Edited February 27, 2020 by Trip
Call ended.

[JDP121]

1 hour ago, Trip said:

Shentel has posted their 4Q results, and there's a slide (page 7) in the presentation reiterating the three options.  That implies to me that they have not reached an agreement with T-Mobile.

https://investor.shentel.com/static-files/130ca6df-6deb-4f91-bdf0-aa2cfbdbff2c

- Trip

Thanks for the Shentel update Trip