Official Tmobile-Sprint merger discussion thread

[jamesinclair]

On 10/24/2017 at 8:09 AM, SprintNYC said:

At this point, this merger is a pretty much-done deal unless the lawyers at the DOJ block it. However, the number one guy in the antitrust division is a pro-big merger and big business. I think the Nextel deal sunk Sprint to the deep ocean, and they weren't able to recover. This forced the company to operate two networks then eventually three with the WiMAX fiasco, all while the debt was keep pilling up.

This post didnt age well

 

I for one am thrilled the merger is off.

[RedSpark]

1 minute ago, jamesinclair said:

This post didnt age well

 

I for one am thrilled the merger is off.

It isn't over until it doesn't happen... 

I have a feeling this merger story still has legs.

[NYC126]

3 minutes ago, jamesinclair said:

This post didnt age well

 

I for one am thrilled the merger is off.

Nice. I don't have a problem admitting when I am wrong. Now had Softbank officially announced they are dropping out?

[Tengen31]

Nice. I don't have a problem admitting when I am wrong. Now had Softbank officially announced they are dropping out?

Officially not yet

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[NYC126]

Just now, Tengen31 said:

Officially not yet

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8 minutes ago, jamesinclair said:

This post didnt age well

 

I for one am thrilled the merger is off.

 

9 minutes ago, jamesinclair said:

This post didnt age well

 

I for one am thrilled the merger is off.

You could have pulled my post after Softbank officially drop out. As much I want to this is not officially dead yet...

[jamesinclair]

3 minutes ago, SprintNYC said:

You could have pulled my post after Softbank officially drop out. As much I want to this is not officially dead yet...

I didnt have your post in mind or anything, I was reading the last few pages to catch up and it caught my eye. Just playing around

[Arysyn]

I'm going to make a bold prediction that this merger is still ongoing, but of course I may very well be wrong about it and I know many of you hope the deal will be dead. I can't blame any of you who want it over, and in much the same way I agree, with the exception of a small bit of my wanting this to happen so that Softbank's control diminishes and allows DT/T-Mobile more control, along of course with the spectrum advantages.

However, I'm still very much with those of you who want Sprint to finance its network and become stronger with more density/deployment of its spectrum. The issue I have with that though is Softbank's commitment to Sprint I can't count on anymore. I was for a long time waiting on them to help Sprint build, at which time I'd consider switching back to Sprint, but since that hasn't happened I'm left wondering if Sprint wouldn't be better off with another company.

T-Mobile, despite its flaws and the issues I have with John Legere, I still believe Sprint would be much better off with T-Mobile than Softbank, unless Softbank really truly would show a committment to financing Sprint development. However, I just don't have faith they will. I think that is the question we all should consider about this issue, and even if DT/T-Mobile isn't the choice, would another company still be better controlling Sprint than Softbank at this point?

[JossMan]

Talks are still going on, that press release shows that SoftBank is willing to walk away from this deal unless more favorable conditions are met.  Personally I am hoping SoftBank walks away from this merger by the end of the week.  I rather see Sprint go at it alone and Son just pump money into the network and show that Sprint is a serious player to Verizon. 

Keep the network plans that were released months back which included adding thousands of macro/mini macro cell sites, overlay the entire network with 2.5GHz, add massive MIMO, continue to refarm legacy 1900 3G to LTE and have this network humming by Q2 2018.   

EDIT:  As of 10 minutes ago MarketWatch is reporting that merger talks are officially off, if so couldn't be more happier.  

 

[Tengen31]

Talks are still going on, that press release shows that SoftBank is willing to walk away from this deal unless more favorable conditions are met.  Personally I am hoping SoftBank walks away from this merger by the end of the week.  I rather see Sprint go at it alone and Son just pump money into the network and show that Sprint is a serious player to Verizon. 
Keep the network plans that were released months back which included adding thousands of macro/mini macro cell sites, overlay the entire network with 2.5GHz, add massive MIMO, continue to refarm legacy 1900 3G to LTE and have this network humming by Q2 2018.   
 

I completely agree with you. Id like to see heavy enough densifcation to shut down CDMA in 2018-2019

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[jebr]

1 hour ago, JossMan said:

 I rather see Sprint go at it alone and Son just pump money into the network and show that Sprint is a serious player to Verizon. 

I don't see Sprint, even within the next 5 years, being a true "serious player" to Verizon, especially in rural markets. The cost to do so would be immense, likely for relatively little gain in the short-to-medium term.

In my view, Sprint's competitive path forward is to try and morph their network into the "value carrier" network. With T-Mobile's huge capex over the next few years on the 600MHz side, rates will likely have to go up to make the network profitable. If Sprint can focus their capex on densifying and making truly solid their urban/suburban network, ensure the highways between them are adequately covered, and keep strong roaming agreements to cover those remote locations that are well off the beaten path (enforcing roaming limitations as needed to ensure that it's not a huge cost sink,) I think Sprint can find a distinct path as the value carrier that will give you an inexpensive price compared to the other three but with a solid network where you need it most and backup to ensure you can still call/text anywhere there's cell service.

[Fraydog]

I'm hoping Sprint goes to 1.5 billion per quarter on CapEx at least. If it's anything less than that, SoftBank isn't putting enough investment in.

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[Arysyn]

I went to check on MarketWatch using a Google search, but I'm not seeing any official report yet. Any links?

[Fraydog]

29 minutes ago, jebr said:

I don't see Sprint, even within the next 5 years, being a true "serious player" to Verizon, especially in rural markets. The cost to do so would be immense, likely for relatively little gain in the short-to-medium term.
In my view, Sprint's competitive path forward is to try and morph their network into the "value carrier" network. With T-Mobile's huge capex over the next few years on the 600MHz side, rates will likely have to go up to make the network profitable. If Sprint can focus their capex on densifying and making truly solid their urban/suburban network, ensure the highways between them are adequately covered, and keep strong roaming agreements to cover those remote locations that are well off the beaten path (enforcing roaming limitations as needed to ensure that it's not a huge cost sink,) I think Sprint can find a distinct path as the value carrier that will give you an inexpensive price compared to the other three but with a solid network where you need it most and backup to ensure you can still call/text anywhere there's cell service.

I live in a two player market and I'm almost out of contract and the only difference between this upcoming deal and the last one is that AT&T is an equal here as opposed to lagging. In other words, I have a duopoly as opposed to a monopoly.

What T-Mobile does is a wait and see due to no 700 MHz here, and the likelyhood that STL region will not experience full 600 MHz clearance until late 2019 at the earliest.

It's still better than the landline broadband choices here.

 

Edit: some of the areas around me and around STL are going to be doing some 600 MHz testing so maybe I've spoken too soon on 600 not coming here any time soon. Washington County, IL, which borders Randolph County to the NE, is doing 600 MHz testing. 

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[Fraydog]

I went to check on MarketWatch using a Google search, but I'm not seeing any official report yet. Any links?

I don't see it on MarketWatch.

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[greenbastard]

3 hours ago, SprintNYC said:

Nice. I don't have a problem admitting when I am wrong. Now had Softbank officially announced they are dropping out?

You're not wrong. What came out was Sprint trying to negotiate a better deal. I still think it happens since everyone and their mommas has turned Sprint down at this point.

If SoftBank doesn't go through with the merger, the only option is to sell and recoup their money or double down on a fierce wireless industry in which competitors are cannibalizing themselves via pricing. I doubt Son wants to do the latter.

[NYC126]

1 minute ago, greenbastard said:

You're not wrong. What came out was Sprint trying to negotiate a better deal. I still think it happens since everyone and their mommas has turned Sprint down at this point.

If SoftBank doesn't go through with the merger, the only option is to sell and recoup their money or double down on a fierce wireless industry in which competitors are cannibalizing themselves via pricing. I doubt Son wants to do the latter.

They will buy the other 17% of the company and take it private.

[Arysyn]

1 hour ago, Fraydog said:

I don't see it on MarketWatch.

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Neither do I, still. So I wouldn't believe the deal is totally off yet, until there is some sort of official word about it. TmoNews hasn't updated their site with anything either since yesterday's update regarding the CNBC article.

True there may be an end to this, but what I'm still thinking is no, there isn't going to be one so soon after all this time of trying to make a deal. Its very possible that there are terms both sides might be fighting over, but consider this everyone. Masa could have invested in Sprint heavily these past few years, but chose not to do so while waiting to get this merger deal done.

All this, despite our hopes for an improved Sprint, things haven't been good for Sprint in terms of customer losses overall, granted things have improved lately in that regard due to the recent promotions. I take all of this as an indicator that Masa really wants this to happen, unless a better deal elsewhere comes to place, but all in all it doesn't look good for what most of us want for Sprint, which is more spending on the network.

Due to all the time invested on mergers and not on the network build, has me very skeptical about the reports claiming Softbank's sudden interest in network spending on Sprint.

[ITK79]

Found this article.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-a-t-mobile-sprint-merger-would-hurt-consumers-2017-09-20

There is also this article.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/softbank-to-drop-merger-of-sprint-t-mobile-us-2017-10-31

Still not 100% sure the deal is dead or if this is all a game.

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[dkyeager]

According to this egos are the issue, but still 75% - 80% likely for a signed deal.  Then the various other steps would be needed after that (Anti-Trust, FCC frequencies/handset/coverage conditions, and anything else).  http://www.lightreading.com/mobile/4g-lte/source-egos-cloud-sprint-t-mobile-talks/d/d-id/737761?

[dro1984]

I'm suspecting it's not over yet either.    Official word needs to come from one side or the other and that hasn't happened yet.   It's already Wednesday in Japan (8am)...  should have heard something official now if it were really over.    

[dkyeager]

My gut feel is Softbank is very limited in what it can do with Sprint given the current ownership level and structure.  Setting up an antenna company is quite clever.  It can provide more capital to Sprint indirectly in conjunction to the Australian firm or to a new T-Mobile entity including Sprint (it can reduce debt if needed for a deal).  If the T-Mobile deal goes through it could buy more share (via treasury stock for more capital or market).  It will cost lots of money to build out a nation-wide network, 5G, and merger two firms/networks.  This increase in money runs up against DT being able to claim T-Mobile as a whole owned subsidiary,  yet without an increase in funds the opportunity to beat the duo could slip away.  I also  agree that a merger has a lot of risks.  It will have to go through all the dealmaking steps before we would know if it is viable.  If making the total deal takes too long, the underlying assumptions could also change. Fascinating to watch.  ::popcorn::

[S4GRU]

1 hour ago, dro1984 said:

I'm suspecting it's not over yet either.    Official word needs to come from one side or the other and that hasn't happened yet.   It's already Wednesday in Japan (8am)...  should have heard something official now if it were really over.    

Official word?  How can there be an official announcement that a deal is off when there has been no official announcement that a deal is on?  It's all rumor and speculation.

[Johnner1999]

Official word?  How can there be an official announcement that a deal is off when there has been no official announcement that a deal is on?  It's all rumor and speculation.

Bingo

It’s like folks that say the new iPhone is delayed, before Apple even announces it lol.


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[Arysyn]

2 hours ago, S4GRU said:

Official word?  How can there be an official announcement that a deal is off when there has been no official announcement that a deal is on?  It's all rumor and speculation.

Typically this makes sense to most things... However, several news reports were stating there would be some sort of official announcement from Softbank/Sprint proclaiming the cancellation of the merger attempt, expected on Tuesday.

Obviously though nothing official was announced from them, nor even from DT/T-Mobile. So, either Robert is correct here and the news reports were wrong to state there'd be an official announcement, or else the merger talks are still ongoing. 

My guess is that the discussions about the merger are still happening. I really doubt Masa is going to drop the deal. If anything stops it prior to going by the regulators, it'll be either Softbank's board overriding Masa somehow, or DT decides against a deal with Sprint.

[S4GRU]

Whether the merger is still ongoing is immaterial.  I'm not even guessing Masa is really walking away.  My point is that if nothing has been formally announced, I doubt they would actually formally unannounce, even if they do walk away from a deal.