Official Tmobile-Sprint merger discussion thread

[bigsnake49]

3 minutes ago, RedSpark said:

This merger doesn’t need to happen. Sprint has finally turned the corner on its network build. We just got a bunch of new extended coverage as well as an announcement from Gilat on October 16, 2016 about Sprint expanding its Contract to a Three Year Managed Services Project:

https://www.gilat.com/pressreleases/sprint-expands-gilat-contract-to-a-three-year-multi-million-dollar-managed-service-project/

Original announcement by Gilat was made on October 26, 2016:

https://www.gilat.com/pressreleases/gilats-satellite-based-cellular-backhaul-solution-selected-by-sprint-to-extend-lte-services-to-metro-edge-and-rural-areas-in-the-us/

What would happen to that agreement in the case of a merger? Would Sprint senior management, who I assume are in a position to know about any pending merger announcements, really sign off on a Three Year Managed Service Project of this scope for Sprint less than 10 days before an Earnings Announcement?

Life goes on before and after the merger and I am sure that the agreement will be looked at after the merger.

[derrph]

Yepper, do a project Fi type of thing.  Make it even better than Project Fi. Quit building duplicate cell sites in the same area.
Keep all the Spectrum.  Build the 600 network in the very rural areas and build the crap out of the 2500 network where needed.
Trade/merge 1900 spectrum if it can be done to make it more efficient and wider channels.
Trade any oddball spectrum with AT&T or Verizon. Maybe even include a deal of some type with US Cellular.
I can not see a full blown merger and the resulting need to dump Spectrum.

Taking a Fi route will be much clearer.


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[RedSpark]

1 hour ago, derrph said:

Exactly! At least on T-Mo end they always announce a week in advance that they are doing their Q earnings. What I did notice today is that John also posted a video saying that this video was a good way to keep everyone focused on the results and not the rumors going around daily. Traditionally too, Sprint normally does their Q earnings at the start of a new month and never in the same week as another carrier. In a way the writing is all over the wall. 

If Son does announce it, the Sprint brand has to go. there's no ways around that. It's sad at the same time that we may possibly see a company this old go bye bye. 

See the Investors Site for the past dates of Sprint’s Earnings announcements.

http://investors.sprint.com/financials/default.aspx

Click on the documents to see the actual dates they were held.

I see a mix of beginning/end of month for these announcements looking back at 2016/2017 and prior.

[RedSpark]

48 minutes ago, bigsnake49 said:

Life goes on before and after the merger and I am sure that the agreement will be looked at after the merger.

True. I wonder how the 600 MHz deployment would affect this.

[bigsnake49]

Just now, RedSpark said:

True. I wonder how the 600 MHz deployment would affect this.

For exurban and rural sites, microwave and satellite backhaul are often used. 

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, RedSpark said:

This merger doesn’t need to happen. Sprint has finally turned the corner on its network build. We just got a bunch of new extended coverage as well as an announcement from Gilat on October 16, 2016 about Sprint expanding its Contract to a Three Year Managed Services Project:

Before we jump to this conclusion we need to see sustained financial growth over a period of time and a much larger increase in net additions to the network. Sprint is still offering the best deals in wireless and their growth is lagging the competition. This is not sustainable over the long term. Honestly, I see a merger as inevitable as the larger providers will have much more flexible cash for network enhancements in the near future, which they can then leverage to gain more customers. 

[Scott]

2 hours ago, bigsnake49 said:

Just remember that it can only be rejected on anti-trust grounds. I don't think that anybody can find antitrust grounds for this merger. Reduced customer choice, yes but anti-trust, no!

The DOJ reviews potential antitrust issues in mergers. The FCC is supposed to look at whether the merger is in the public interest, which includes reduced competition. So the FCC could reject the merger on the grounds that the reduced competition is not in the public interest. I do not, however, see Chairman Pai doing that because he is so pro-business.

From the FCC's FAQ about merger reviews:
Q: What is the FCC’s public interest standard/test?
A: Under section 310(d) of the Communications Act, we determine whether a proposed transaction will serve the public interest, convenience and necessity. First, we determine if the application complies with provisions of the Act and our Commission rules. If it does, then we consider whether granting the application could result in public interest harms by substantially frustrating or impairing the objectives or implementation of the Communications Act or related statutes. Competition, diversity, localism, and encouraging the provision of advanced services to all Americans are among the principle objectives of the Act. We also consider what potential public benefits might occur because of the transaction.

We balance the potential public interest harms against the potential benefits. The Applicants bear the burden of proving, by a preponderance of the evidence, that the proposed transaction, on balance, will serve the public interest.

[dro1984]

3 hours ago, derrph said:

 What I did notice today is that John also posted a video saying that this video was a good way to keep everyone focused on the results and not the rumors going around daily. 

 

The other thing I found in his video presentation was the clear lack of anything "Sprint".   John jabbed at AT&T and Verizon but nothing on or against Sprint.  Also, I don't know if you guys noticed, but the word "Duopoly" is the power word of late and is being used with more frequency! (no pun intended)....   I think it's about conditioning  the FCC and DOJ by hearing it.

Edited October 23, 2017 by dro1984

[Johnner1999]

I’m sure this occurring a couple days prior means either —

- SoftBank is leaving
Or
- means absolutely zilch


I bet it’s somewhere in between. Lol.


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[dro1984]

Softbank leaving?    I didn't get that feeling at all!

Edited October 23, 2017 by dro1984

[Johnner1999]

49 minutes ago, dro1984 said:

Softbank leaving?    I didn't get that feeling at all!

it's a joke....  

[NYC126]

At this point, this merger is a pretty much-done deal unless the lawyers at the DOJ block it. However, the number one guy in the antitrust division is a pro-big merger and big business. I think the Nextel deal sunk Sprint to the deep ocean, and they weren't able to recover. This forced the company to operate two networks then eventually three with the WiMAX fiasco, all while the debt was keep pilling up.

[though]

T-Mobile Cancels Earnings Call Ahead of Merger Announcement

http://www.dslreports.com/shownews/TMobile-Cancels-Earnings-Call-Ahead-of-Merger-Announcement-140572

[JThorson]

What does everyone think will happen to the stock if the merger doesn't happen?

[RedSpark]

Get ready for Sprint's earning's announcement tomorrow morning.... and a "message from management".

http://investors.sprint.com/news-and-events/press-releases/press-release-details/2017/Sprint-Corporation-Schedules-Fiscal-2017-Second-Quarter-Results-Announcement/default.aspx

~8:00 AM ET

No conference call will be held.

[Johnner1999]

58 minutes ago, JThorson said:

What does everyone think will happen to the stock if the merger doesn't happen?

So many variables.  Knee jerky reaction

- Sprint tanks for a few days weeks till SoftBank dumps more cash into Sprint

 

[BlueAngel]

This is kinda exciting.

[RedSpark]

“For obvious reasons, given the noise in the media and in the market about potential strategic opportunities for Sprint, we are taking a non-traditional approach to sharing our results with you this quarter.”

 

[xdfgf]

Interesting few days ahead. As a shareholder now Im curious to see what happens

[twospirits]

Interesting that the WSJ is saying today that

1-there is no breakup fee,

2-but instead a roaming deal if the merger does not go through.

3-Both DT's Tim Hoettges and Softbank Son would be co-chairmen with Legere as CEO.

 

TS

[Johnner1999]

57 minutes ago, twospirits said:

Interesting that the WSJ is saying today that

1-there is no breakup fee,

2-but instead a roaming deal if the merger does not go through.

3-Both DT's Tim Hoettges and Softbank Son would be co-chairmen with Legere as CEO.

 

TS

Those make sense. 

 

[dro1984]

Good take from Bloomberg on the Sprint earnings report this morning and what lays ahead for Sprint.

In a nutshell, merger is needed more than before......

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-10-25/sprint-earnings-has-loss-awaits-t-mobile-deal 

Edited October 25, 2017 by dro1984

[RedSpark]

38 minutes ago, dro1984 said:

Good take from Bloomberg on the Sprint earnings report this morning and what lays ahead for Sprint.

In a nutshell, merger is needed more than before......

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-10-25/sprint-earnings-has-loss-awaits-t-mobile-deal 

Sprint doesn't have to do this merger to be a successful brand. As long as Sprint can keep making its debt payments going forward to reduce the load, continue with CapEx, and keep reducing cost/waste/bloat in the business it will ultimately be fine without a merger.

It's true that T-Mobile is firing on all cylinders. They have a charismatic executive team and an amazing marketing team behind them. It's also true that Sprint has had to crawl out of a deep dark hole. And it finally has... but it's competing against others who've had a running start.

Sprint will continue to improve its actual product, and that will happen in time. However, I think the bigger issue here is a messaging problem. Sprint needs to replace its marketing team and its website team, both of whom I believe have failed to provide a coherent customer proposition. "1% difference" is not an effective approach to win people over.

Sprint also needs to announce "coverage partnerships" with big box retail stores and national brands by deploying series of Magic Boxes or Airaves or a DAS in select areas. If Sprint announced improved coverage at Marriott, Hyatt or Hilton Hotels nationwide, that would improve customer perception that the brand could work well for them when they frequent those locations. This would certainly apply for business travelers and non-business travelers as well. I think we'd see better numbers with initiatives like this. Sprint doesn't have enough "clout" to make its own news. It needs partnerships with established brands that can amplify its message. Partnerships with brands like Marriott, Hyatt or Hilton could do this.

[bigsnake49]

21 minutes ago, utiz4321 said:

You are forgetting that another round of huge CAPEX expenditures are going to be needed over the next 3-5 years to keep sprint r elavent, while at the sametime sprint has massive debt payments due.  Where is that money going to come from? 

Yep and we're not even talking about 5G with an new air link protocol and probably new basestation updates.

[dro1984]

I don't see Coverage partnerships happening with companies.   The way to do that and the way you're thinking would be to install signal repeaters in the hallways of large Hotels and large businesses, not Magic boxes. The hotels/companies won't pay for this.  It's expensive.  Sprint wont do it either so that's quite a dilemma.   Most hotels in this country have Wi-fi.   Really... no need or want for them to come to the aid of Sprint on this. 

   The writing is on the wall.  4 place is where the company will be and stay unless something dramatic happens.     Something will happen too.  Son will not want to hang onto this company if the T-Mobile merger fails.   He will unload at what every price he can get.  I think he is/already tried that by the way... which is why we have an all stock deal of a potential merger.   No cash involved.  It's called cut your losses and leverage what you do have....   If this fails, I see some of the spectrum being sold in order to pay off or refinance the huge debt notes coming due in a few years and for them to try to do a weak 5G build...  I just personally don't see Sprint surviving long term, let alone overtaking anyone... even with massive mimo, small cells or what have you... because the other big 3 cell providers are already doing the same thing.   

Edited October 26, 2017 by dro1984