Official Tmobile-Sprint merger discussion thread

[PedroDaGr8]

n41-SA just went fully live (not just a handful of select towers) over the past few days in the Seattle market. If you don't see it yet in your area, it will likely come soon. Seattle isn't normally the first market for changes but is usually one of the first Nokia markets. Changes in Seattle tend to roll out over the next few weeks/months to the vast majority of other areas. 

[RedSpark]

2 hours ago, Paynefanbro said:

T‑Mobile Delivers Industry‑Leading Postpaid Service Revenue and Cash Flow Growth in Q2 2022 and Raises Guidance Across the Board

https://www.t-mobile.com/news/press/t-mobile-delivers-q2-2022earnings

 

 

Per the Factbook: https://s29.q4cdn.com/310188824/files/doc_financials/2022/q2/Q2-2022-Investor-Factbook-vFinal.pdf

Page 14: Sites (Combined LTE + 5G): 88K Macro Cell Sites, 39K Small cell/distributed antenna systems sites.

As that "Ultra Capacity 5G" POPs number/percentage keeps climbing this year and in 2023, we should expect T-Mobile's Rootmetrics performance to further improve.

[RedSpark]

2 hours ago, jreuschl said:

In the call today it was revealed they don't expect Sprint billing conversions to finish up until middle of next year.

Yikes. Migrating the customers over must be a real mess if that's the case. Perhaps they're waiting for more people to move onto "easier to migrate" Sprint plans or to just churn out?

[comintel]

3 hours ago, jreuschl said:

In the call today it was revealed they don't expect Sprint billing conversions to finish up until middle of next year.

I think they are keeping them at a crawl pace so as to avoid impacting the main T-Mobile churn statistics too much if the migrated users do not like it and leave.

It seems, judging from reports, that a lot of Kickstart subscribers have been migrated so far.  I figure they reckon Kickstart users are safe because they have such a good deal that they will stay after migration.

But it is highly selective even among Kickstart users.     That shows to me that it is not a technical obstacle that is keeping them so gradual.   It is a policy one of some kind.

Another factor could be that some of the three-year commitments given to Federal regulators expire on April 1, 2023.

 

[Paynefanbro]

3 hours ago, comintel said:

I think they are keeping them at a crawl pace so as to avoid impacting the main T-Mobile churn statistics too much if the migrated users do not like it and leave.

If that's what they're doing then it's working lol. They had lower postpaid phone churn than Verizon for the first time ever.

[RedSpark]

Some more info from the Earnings Call yesterday: https://www.fiercewireless.com/5g/t-mobile-adds-723k-subs-q2-despite-shaky-economy

T-Mobile said it achieved a significant milestone with the shutdown of the Sprint network. Nearly two-thirds of the 35,000 targeted sites had been decommissioned as of the end of the quarter, and the company expects to complete pretty much all the decommissioning by the end of the third quarter.

Substantial progress!

[Dkoellerwx]

I don't typically run a ton of speed tests but I noticed that n41 CA was on air in the Kansas City area on my current trip. I haven't seen it live before. Gave me my first ever Gigabit test. Specifically the tower at 87th and Lackman in Lenexa, KS for anyone interested. 100+40 n41 + 20 B2 + 15 B66. (Ignore the NR 71 from SCP, it had gotten stuck on that).

[RedSpark]

6 hours ago, Dkoellerwx said:

I don't typically run a ton of speed tests but I noticed that n41 CA was on air in the Kansas City area on my current trip. I haven't seen it live before. Gave me my first ever Gigabit test. Specifically the tower at 87th and Lackman in Lenexa, KS for anyone interested. 100+40 n41 + 20 B2 + 15 B66. (Ignore the NR 71 from SCP, it had gotten stuck on that).

When sufficient spectrum meets sufficient backhaul.

Spend the money T-Mobile. Spend the money.

[mdob07]

I think it might have already been reported on here but I found a Sprint keep site broadcasting the T-Mobile B2 carrier today. No sign of the Sprint B25 carriers. Was weird to see Sprint B2 in SCP. 

Edited to add screenshots. I also didn't think to check if B41 was still broadcasting from this site or not, if it is I wonder if they also moved that to match T-Mobile's B41.

[RedSpark]

2.5 GHz Auction Update: https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/25-ghz-auction-raises-103m-tepid-first-day

It’s the FCC’s auction, to be sure. But it wouldn’t be too far of a stretch to call it “T-Mobile’s 2.5 GHz auction.” After all, the “un-carrier” is all about 2.5 GHz in the 5G era and it stands to gain the most from this event.

After the first round on Friday, gross proceeds totaled $103,467,300. Rounds 2 and 3 are underway today.

[RedSpark]

We all know how we got here. 👇

[tybo31316]

So, is auction 108 T-Mobile buying up the spectrum that they are currently leasing?

[dkyeager]

50 minutes ago, tybo31316 said:

So, is auction 108 T-Mobile buying up the spectrum that they are currently leasing?

That is being done separately. For a while T-Mobile has been buying up ED licenses when possible else signing long term leases. 

We have a separate thread on FCC auctions which is covering 108. Short version is most of the counties only have one bidder, and c3, which is most attractive to T-Mobile, has the least competition.

[RedSpark]

Familiar territory..... This isn't going well.

1.1 Million wireless customers lost since August 2020.

Although Dish continues to lose customers, the 210,000 wireless retail net subscribers that Dish lost in 2Q is an improvement over the 343,000 that it lost in Q1 2022 and the 245,000 wireless retail subscribers that it lost in 4Q 2021.

In addition, Dish reported a wireless churn rate of 4.39% for 2Q, which is an improvement over the 4.64% churn rate it reported at the end of Q1 and a decline from the 4.95% it reported in 4Q 2021.

 

[dkyeager]

22 hours ago, RedSpark said:

Familiar territory..... This isn't going well.

1.1 Million wireless customers lost since August 2020.

Although Dish continues to lose customers, the 210,000 wireless retail net subscribers that Dish lost in 2Q is an improvement over the 343,000 that it lost in Q1 2022 and the 245,000 wireless retail subscribers that it lost in 4Q 2021.

In addition, Dish reported a wireless churn rate of 4.39% for 2Q, which is an improvement over the 4.64% churn rate it reported at the end of Q1 and a decline from the 4.95% it reported in 4Q 2021.

 

 

I view Dish as a beta wireless company even if you ignore Genesis.  They just leave so many loose ends.  At first only new customers could get the price reductions, but only online.  When I signed up for a three month deal (did not trust them for a year) it comes back and tells you the $45 rate is monthly.  You have to trust them that it will be only every 90 days (I eliminated autopay until after 60 days).  Now I was just given the option on another plan that was excluded.  There was no publicity of this change, it just happened.  

Look at 5g.  With AT&T the icon appears to be on all the time, 5g or not.  When using T-Mobile you sometimes get it other times not.  This seems to be related to the sim card interaction with the phone model or maybe being in a market with Genesis.

Talk to stores about anything technical? Russian roulette odds of finding someone knowledgeable IMO.  Now it does appear that they are trying to set up intelligent systems to make up for this.  Telephone was quite friendly and tries to be helpful. 

Great potential, but I agree that it sounds like Sprint.

Edited August 4, 2022 by S4GRU
Removed message from quoted member text for readability

[RedSpark]

2 hours ago, dkyeager said:

I view Dish as a beta wireless company even if you ignore Genesis.  They just leave so many loose ends.  At first only new customers could get the price reductions, but only online.  When I signed up for a three month deal (did not trust them for a year) it comes back and tells you the $45 rate is monthly.  You have to trust them that it will be only every 90 days (I eliminated autopay until after 60 days).  Now I was just given the option on another plan that was excluded.  There was no publicity of this change, it just happened.  

Look at 5g.  With AT&T the icon appears to be on all the time, 5g or not.  When using T-Mobile you sometimes get it other times not.  This seems to be related to the sim card interaction with the phone model or maybe being in a market with Genesis.

Talk to stores about anything technical? Russian roulette odds of finding someone knowledgeable IMO.  Now it does appear that they are trying to set up intelligent systems to make up for this.  Telephone was quite friendly and tries to be helpful.  Great potential, but I agree that it sounds like Sprint.

It's like déjà vu all over again.

- Yogi Berra

+4% Churn is a company killer.

[RedSpark]

Dish not interested in selling Boost, at least for now

This isn't going well at all.

Another good read on Dish's progress:

Band 70, VoNR play key role in Dish’s 5G rollout

Edited August 4, 2022 by RedSpark
Added another link

[dkyeager]

7 hours ago, RedSpark said:

Dish not interested in selling Boost, at least for now

This isn't going well at all.

Another good read on Dish's progress:

Band 70, VoNR play key role in Dish’s 5G rollout

The lack of band 70 support is why I am not signed up for Genesis.  I keep checking for nr70 permissive change on the s22.  Also waiting for frequency band details on the Qualcomm x70 modem or other phones.

[dkyeager]

https://www.lightreading.com/open-ran/dish-expected-to-walk-away-from-t-mobiles-800mhz-spectrum/d/d-id/779468?

Why wouldn't Dish try to knock down the price or get other sweeteners?  Won't be over until its over.  Still like band 5 plus band 26 being redone to better fit the 5G era.

[RedSpark]

29 minutes ago, dkyeager said:

https://www.lightreading.com/open-ran/dish-expected-to-walk-away-from-t-mobiles-800mhz-spectrum/d/d-id/779468?

Why wouldn't Dish try to knock down the price or get other sweeteners?  Won't be over until its over.  Still like band 5 plus band 26 being redone to better fit the 5G era.

I feel like I'm watching a disaster in slow motion all over again.

[dkyeager]

2 minutes ago, RedSpark said:

I feel like I'm watching a disaster in slow motion all over again.

I think having a forth carrier in urban areas with it picking between the other carriers in rural areas is viable.  Not what they agreed to with the DOJ, but doubt they would be killed off if they don't make that commitment level, especially if our usual historical trends continue and we switch to a republican administration.

[Dkoellerwx]

Appears there was a coverage map update this afternoon. A few people noted that rural sites had disappeared from the map. As of this update, the rural sites that were missing from Nebraska and Iowa are back.

Also, coverage continues to expand in Nebraska! Three new conversions in areas with no previous T-Mobile coverage online now. So far nothing outside of the old Sprint footprint, but still progress. 

[RedSpark]

2 hours ago, dkyeager said:

I think having a forth carrier in urban areas with it picking between the other carriers in rural areas is viable.  Not what they agreed to with the DOJ, but doubt they would be killed off if they don't make that commitment level, especially if our usual historical trends continue and we switch to a republican administration.

You could be right. However, given the bleeding out of customers and high churn we've seen so far, I'm not sure how competitive that fourth carrier is really going to be. I find their current deliberations over 800 MHz hilarious and sad at the same time. We've seen this play out before. It doesn't end well.

[Trip]

4 hours ago, dkyeager said:

https://www.lightreading.com/open-ran/dish-expected-to-walk-away-from-t-mobiles-800mhz-spectrum/d/d-id/779468?

Why wouldn't Dish try to knock down the price or get other sweeteners?  Won't be over until its over.  Still like band 5 plus band 26 being redone to better fit the 5G era.

I hate articles like this.  It appears to be based on the opinion of some nameless analysts who have about the same qualifications as my cat.  Is there one single fact regarding 800 in the story?  If there is, I don't see it.

- Trip

[RedSpark]

13 hours ago, Trip said:

I hate articles like this.  It appears to be based on the opinion of some nameless analysts who have about the same qualifications as my cat.  Is there one single fact regarding 800 in the story?  If there is, I don't see it.

- Trip

If Dish doesn't buy it, then what happens to it? T-Mobile gets $72 Million and keeps it on-air with supporting equipment? How would that work with its radio sets?