Official Tmobile-Sprint merger discussion thread

[belusnecropolis]

2.5 was the sweet spot for two versions of the last generation of wireless airlink, often trumpeted by the last two owners and the possible future owner for the next airlink. Neither has materialized as such except in New York, Chicago, areas of LA and other top 10 markets. So you have to imagine Chicago is a good start for the next generation in a new frequency, all in all it looks good on paper, does OK on the ground, and may perform well in a city pending some future updates.

The other ~285 million Americans would like something that works where there is not a light pole every 400-800 feet, or macro every .5 kilometers.  

[Paynefanbro]

12 minutes ago, belusnecropolis said:

2.5 was the sweet spot for two versions of the last generation of wireless airlink, often trumpeted by the last two owners and the possible future owner for the next airlink. Neither has materialized as such except in New York, Chicago, areas of LA and other top 10 markets. So you have to imagine Chicago is a good start for the next generation in a new frequency, all in all it looks good on paper, does OK on the ground, and may perform well in a city pending some future updates.

The other ~285 million Americans would like something that works where there is not a light pole every 400-800 feet, or macro every .5 kilometers.  

You say the top 10 cities as if that's statistically insignificant. The top 10 metro areas contain 26% of the population of the U.S. and that ranking doesn't even include cities like San Francisco, Detroit, Seattle, Baltimore, San Diego, etc.

[NYC126]

1 hour ago, tyroned3222 said:

Let’s give it the benefits of the doubt.. it’s still early still more optimizations to add, a better phone without a mod is coming. I think with the new Samsung galaxy S10 5G and as Verizon adds more tech to the 5G nodes. It will be better in the coming months


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The law of physics will kill how much billions Verizon spend deploying that useless spectrum. Its already looking like the Sprint 4G WiMAX launch.  What surprised me the most was that their executives said they didn't have a plan to buy more spectrum down the road. Looks like Lowell McAdams left the chip before started to sink. Even the CBRS 3.5ghz band will have coverage issues which makes me believe this is the game Uncle Charlie at Dish is playing.  One of these carriers will come to the tablet whether they want to or not in order to acquire all that unused spectrum they have.

[belusnecropolis]

27 minutes ago, Paynefanbro said:

 You say the top 10 cities as if that's statistically insignificant. The top 10 metro areas contain 26% of the population of the U.S. and that ranking doesn't even include cities like San Francisco, Detroit, Seattle, Baltimore, San Diego, etc.

You say the top 10 cities as if they are a dense urban sprawl containing no outlier areas. Detroit, Baltimore and San Diego are great examples of areas once packed with such an example that have sprawling areas now unoccupied but contain smaller pockets bursting at the seams. Yes, the other 74% of Americans would like the option, all ~285 million of them.

[tyroned3222]

The law of physics will kill how much billions Verizon spend deploying that useless spectrum. Its already looking like the Sprint 4G WiMAX launch.  What surprised me the most was that their executives said they didn't have a plan to buy more spectrum down the road. Looks like Lowell McAdams left the chip before started to sink. Even the CBRS 3.5ghz band will have coverage issues which makes me believe this is the game Uncle Charlie at Dish is playing.  One of these carriers will come to the tablet whether they want to or not in order to acquire all that unused spectrum they have.

Wonder what he’s waiting on. They would have been bought that spectrum by now


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[Paynefanbro]

20 minutes ago, belusnecropolis said:

You say the top 10 cities as if they are a dense urban sprawl containing no outlier areas. Detroit, Baltimore and San Diego are great examples of areas once packed with such an example that have sprawling areas now unoccupied but contain smaller pockets bursting at the seams. Yes, the other 74% of Americans would like the option, all ~285 million of them.

I absolutely didn't. My quote about 26% of the population living in those metro areas is inclusive of their urban sprawl, which is why I used the term "metro" and not "city limits". Additionally, it's only ~240 Million outside of those metro areas.

That said, some area has to be first and Sprint is right to tackle the most populous metros first as those are the areas where most of their customers come from and will have the fastest return on investment. Eventually the rest of the country will get 5G speeds. Sprint isn't U.S. Cellular. They can't afford to focus on rural areas where they're already in a weaker position overall until their stronger areas are doing well. That's why Sprint is now able to deploy Band 41 to most of their cell sites after years of serious investment in larger metros and lagging investment outside of them.

[belusnecropolis]

2 minutes ago, Paynefanbro said:

I absolutely didn't my quote about 26% of the population living in those metro areas is inclusive of their urban sprawl, which is why I used the term "metro" and not "city limits". Additionally, it's only ~240 Million outside of those metro areas.

 That said, some area has to be first and Sprint is right to tackle the most populous metros first as those are the areas where most of their customers come from and will have the fastest return on investment. Eventually the rest of the country will get 5G speeds. Sprint isn't U.S. Cellular. They can't afford to focus on rural areas where they're already in a weaker position overall until their stronger areas are doing well. That's why Sprint is now able to deploy Band 41 to most of their cell sites after years of serious investment in larger metros and lagging investment outside of them.

That is why I said cities, and not metro areas, where that remaining ~45 million Americans live. On the numbers we seem to agree with a bit of fuzziness in the middle. The vast majority do not get advanced services deployed, while subsidizing cities that do. The numbers say we are at saturation for cellular service, everyone has one, some two and we are all a paying customer; so they sure can afford to focus on areas that have less competition. It is working wonders for T-Mobile, Firstnet upgrades are paying off nationwide for AT&T. Simply under investing in areas that need coverage to make a buck back in the city is a poor practice, you can't get new paying customers with out service.

Slapping another channel in an area you already have users is only as sustainable as your base / resources. Your rates haven't gone up every time they added a 2.5 carrier or upgraded your local macro to MM>8t8r> NR have they? The customer count is stagnant at best with Sprint in what you describe as high ROI environments. It is falling in areas they have not touched outside of the city, and they have no ability to gain more customers in areas they do not have service, but a base of customers. So that money coming in is from any new adds outside these areas or a nomadic pool of switchers in the city. Pouring money into an area that is not interested in what you offer is a bad use of tight funds, even if it offers cool speed tests in a 4 block area. Keeping ahead of capacity constraints is good for that local userbase of course, but again it does not spread nearly as far and that resource will be consumed quickly, causing another pardon our dust addition for the same user base that is not expanding. This is why everyone else is eventually, and not tomorrow with Sprint.

[RedSpark]

On 4/8/2019 at 4:24 AM, runagun said:

Who the heck wants to live in Overland Park KS?  It's like the damn Truman show. Marcello couldn't wait to leave. Lol

Masa actually bought a house which neighbors Marcelo’s: https://www.kansascity.com/news/business/article42616254.html

It’s now on the market for $9.2 Million: https://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/news/2018/11/18/claure-masayoshi-mission-hills-mansions-for-sale.html

Did he actually ever go inside?

[RedSpark]

Barron’s take on the merger:

Sprint’s Merger With T-Mobile Is Taking Too Long. Why It’s Time to Worry.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-the-sprint-t-mobile-merger-is-taking-so-long-51554904750

[Thomas L.]

8 hours ago, RedSpark said:

Masa actually bought a house which neighbors Marcelo’s: https://www.kansascity.com/news/business/article42616254.html

It’s now on the market for $9.2 Million: https://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/news/2018/11/18/claure-masayoshi-mission-hills-mansions-for-sale.html

Did he actually ever go inside?

This is hilarious, I didn't know this. 

[RedSpark]

Here’s a big carrot for California...

https://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/news/2019/04/10/t-mobile-promises-41-billion-investment-in.html

[ase500]

On 4/9/2019 at 1:46 PM, Paynefanbro said:

I absolutely didn't. My quote about 26% of the population living in those metro areas is inclusive of their urban sprawl, which is why I used the term "metro" and not "city limits". Additionally, it's only ~240 Million outside of those metro areas.

That said, some area has to be first and Sprint is right to tackle the most populous metros first as those are the areas where most of their customers come from and will have the fastest return on investment. Eventually the rest of the country will get 5G speeds. Sprint isn't U.S. Cellular. They can't afford to focus on rural areas where they're already in a weaker position overall until their stronger areas are doing well. That's why Sprint is now able to deploy Band 41 to most of their cell sites after years of serious investment in larger metros and lagging investment outside of them.

Ok, I know probably just my OCD here. You guys are tossing around three different terms that mean three very different things. City, Metro, and Market. Market is very subjective, a retailer, an event company, and a telecommunications company all may serve the same area and define the market differently. Metro is a conglomeration of cities or townships with a central city of more than 50,000 people. A city in most states is a municipality with more than 1,000 persons. Now to the point, the top ten cities do not contain 26 percent of the population, the top metros do, however that is completely disjointed from what Sprint or anyone else calls a market. So if Sprint says they are going to deploy something to Kansas City, do they mean just the city, the metro, or their defined market? You don't know, I don't know, and chances are anyone not in the network engineering team doesn't know. So this argument is pointless. The number of people covered or not covered and the impact of that is completely subjective to what they mean and where you live.

[belusnecropolis]

3 hours ago, RedSpark said:

Here’s a big carrot for California...

https://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/news/2019/04/10/t-mobile-promises-41-billion-investment-in.html

Boop numbers.

[Mr.Nuke]

1 hour ago, belusnecropolis said:

That is specifically One Billions Dollars more then the anticipated New T-Mobile capex over the next 3 years*. Without knowing a timeline for this spend, it is hard to say how crazy this sounds, but it sounds crazy. Good work the non profit performed for negotiating such a commitment, it is the equivalent to much of the value of Sprint, including debt.

The $41 billion is the nationwide Capex spend over the first 3 years of the combined company. It had previously been "up to $40 billion" when the merger was announced so I don't think California really got anything there.

[belusnecropolis]

6 minutes ago, Mr.Nuke said:

The $41 billion is the nationwide Capex spend over the first 3 years of the combined company. It had previously been "up to $40 billion" when the merger was announced so I don't think California really got anything there.

Oh yeah I read this wrong. Thank you!

[greenbastard]

On 4/10/2019 at 12:15 PM, RedSpark said:

Barron’s take on the merger:

Sprint’s Merger With T-Mobile Is Taking Too Long. Why It’s Time to Worry.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-the-sprint-t-mobile-merger-is-taking-so-long-51554904750

Meh. Sounds like someone is trying to make an article out of nothing.

 

[JimBob]

On 4/10/2019 at 1:14 PM, RedSpark said:

Masa actually bought a house which neighbors Marcelo’s: https://www.kansascity.com/news/business/article42616254.html

It’s now on the market for $9.2 Million: https://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/news/2018/11/18/claure-masayoshi-mission-hills-mansions-for-sale.html

Did he actually ever go inside?

Very nice to be rich.  Own mansions that nobody lives in.

[dro1984]

Wonder if this will have any impact on T Mobile and Sprint?

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump is set to hold a White House event on Friday with the country's top communications regulator on next-generation 5G wireless networks

[belusnecropolis]

52 minutes ago, JimBob said:

Very nice to be rich.  Own mansions that nobody lives in.

How degenerate is someone that has a portfolio of empty mansions, that will never be a home to their family? This spending is kind of sinister if it was meant to drive local support behind the Softbank acquisition at the time.

"Hey look, I bought a mansion in your town, so now I'm not only here to empty the largest local employer of value, but also your real estate markets neighbor."

[Tengen31]

On 4/10/2019 at 8:51 AM, S4GRU said:

They will just keep their current live sites to serve as license protection sites and continue with T-Mobile and AT&T roaming in the area.  Sad for the wasted opportunity.

Robert

Sprint spectrum will get used when the merger passes tho 😉

[Brynn0823]

Sprint spectrum will get used when the merger passes tho [emoji6]

And once it’s approved I’ll move my lines to Verizon


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[RedSpark]

https://www.t-mobile.com/news/what-is-your-5g-future

Legere is pushing this hard with his trademark infomercial style...

Are those “separate company” network maps believable for four years from now?

[dkyeager]

6 minutes ago, RedSpark said:

https://www.t-mobile.com/news/what-is-your-5g-future

Legere is pushing this hard with his trademark infomercial style...

he appears to be adding weight -- merger stress perhaps.

[JimBob]

Analyst:  If US wants to be leader in 5G, it should approve Sprint, T-Mobile merger

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/12/in-race-for-5g-us-should-approve-sprint-t-mobile-merger-analyst.html

• A Sprint, T-Mobile merger is the path to the best 5G network we’re likely to see in the U.S.
• Sprint is sitting on a “phenomenal band of spectrum” that can run the technology
• The merger will in turn drive AT&T and Verizon to invest

[Brad The Beast]

5 hours ago, RedSpark said:

Are those “separate company” network maps believable for four years from now?

I highly doubt the Sprint one. T-Mobile's maybe.