Official Tmobile-Sprint merger discussion thread

[IrwinshereAgain]

I don't see a standalone Sprint as a major competitor to the big two.  A merger with Dish or someone else would probably take some significant time.  The big winners would be the Verizon and ATT.  Not sure that is best for the consumer.  Just my opinion.

[RedSpark]

Sprint’s recent FCC Filing is enough to get you depressed... Holy cow they’re in trouble.

https://ecfsapi.fcc.gov/file/10415297968006/Sprint%20Standalone%20Ex%20Parte%20-%20REDACTED%20-%20FINAL%20-%204.15.2019%20%5BAS-FILED%5D.pdf

There’s so much in this it’s frankly overwhelming, but here are these nuggets:

“Footnote 55: Sprint chose not to participate in the 600 MHz auction in 2016 partly due to lack of financial resources and the need to spend cash on more immediate network needs, and partly because at the time it expected to successfully densify its network using monopoles, which would have reduced the need for low band spectrum.”

Page 33: ”Churn-bomb”

Page 38: “Liquidity Wall”

If you think they’re telling the truth here, Sprint is in deep trouble...

[belusnecropolis]

1 hour ago, RedSpark said:

Sprint’s recent FCC Filing is enough to get you depressed... Holy cow they’re in trouble.

https://ecfsapi.fcc.gov/file/10415297968006/Sprint%20Standalone%20Ex%20Parte%20-%20REDACTED%20-%20FINAL%20-%204.15.2019%20%5BAS-FILED%5D.pdf

There’s so much in this it’s frankly overwhelming, but here are these nuggets:

“Footnote 55: Sprint chose not to participate in the 600 MHz auction in 2016 partly due to lack of financial resources and the need to spend cash on more immediate network needs, and partly because at the time it expected to successfully densify its network using monopoles, which would have reduced the need for low band spectrum.”

Page 33: ”Churn-bomb”

Page 38: “Liquidity Wall”

If you think they’re telling the truth here, Sprint is in deep trouble...

I like to think one of our many shitposts was quoted [BEGIN HIGHLY CONFIDENTIAL] [END HIGHLY CONFIDENTIAL]then [REDACTED IN FULL] to help scare the regulamuhtaters.

[bucdenny]

1 hour ago, RedSpark said:

Sprint’s recent FCC Filing is enough to get you depressed... Holy cow they’re in trouble.

https://ecfsapi.fcc.gov/file/10415297968006/Sprint%20Standalone%20Ex%20Parte%20-%20REDACTED%20-%20FINAL%20-%204.15.2019%20%5BAS-FILED%5D.pdf

There’s so much in this it’s frankly overwhelming, but here are these nuggets:

“Footnote 55: Sprint chose not to participate in the 600 MHz auction in 2016 partly due to lack of financial resources and the need to spend cash on more immediate network needs, and partly because at the time it expected to successfully densify its network using monopoles, which would have reduced the need for low band spectrum.”

Page 33: ”Churn-bomb”

Page 38: “Liquidity Wall”

If you think they’re telling the truth here, Sprint is in deep trouble...

if credit market dries up it can only get worse.  

[dkyeager]

1 hour ago, bucdenny said:

if credit market dries up it can only get worse.  

That is the key question.  Sprint tells one story to the regulators another for the quarterly reports.  Those loaning money at what interest rates with what collateral are the key indicators of where the truth lies.  The wireless providers are all highly leveraged, but Sprint is even more so.  Sprint was in much worse shape before Marcello.  Creative financing and cost cutting saved it.  But being so highly leveraged means doing nothing is likely not an option. 

[bigsnake49]

When is Sprint's quarterly earnings presentation?

[bigsnake49]

12 hours ago, RedSpark said:

So they bet the fate of the company on a non-traditional monopole strategy which failed, and now they’re stuck with doing a traditional build but lacking the actual spectrum to do that traditional build in an economical way. It’s like they didn’t anticipate a downside... or perhaps it was “we’ll merge our way out of trouble.”

No wonder there was such confidence that 600 MHz was “Spectrum of the past”. The room was probably full of people who were afraid to say no or bad idea to Masa’s network plan... and then it came crashing down to earth. This is up there with the Nextel acquisition in terms of strategic blunders, I’m sorry.

I am a victim of that strategy. Sprint elected to ditch their traditional macro near my condo and instead moved their voice to a monopoly and moved LTE band 41 to couple of mini macros. LTE coverage suffered. They did send me a Magic Box but that is probably not cheap.

Sprint cannot stand on its own anymore. They need a partner that will infuse some cash into the operation. Maybe a three way partnership between the cable cos, Dish and Sprint. 

[bigsnake49]

I wonder what grounds the DOJ has for rejecting the merger. It cannot be on anti-trust grounds. I also wonder if Sprint and T-Mobile will take the DOJ to court if it is rejected. Last time the DOJ went to court on a merger they lost (AT&T, DirectTV)

Edited April 17, 2019 by bigsnake49

[RedSpark]

2 hours ago, bigsnake49 said:

When is Sprint's quarterly earnings presentation?

Hasn't been announced yet, but late April or early May.

Last year's Fiscal 4Q2017 call was held on May 2, 2018: https://investors.sprint.com/news-and-events/past-events/event-details/2018/Fiscal-4Q17-Earnings-Call/default.aspx

Just before that was this on April 29, 2018: https://investors.sprint.com/news-and-events/past-events/event-details/2018/Investor-and-Media-Conference-Call/default.aspx

Background: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180429005059/en/T-Mobile-Sprint-CEOs-Hold-Call-Investors-Media

Edited April 17, 2019 by RedSpark
Added more detail

[tyroned3222]

Hasn't been announced yet, but late April or early May.
Last year's Fiscal 4Q2017 call was held on May 2nd: https://investors.sprint.com/news-and-events/past-events/event-details/2018/Fiscal-4Q17-Earnings-Call/default.aspx
Just before that was this: https://investors.sprint.com/news-and-events/past-events/event-details/2018/Investor-and-Media-Conference-Call/default.aspx

it’s sad to say, but SoftBank is looking for a bailout by any means necessary.
In a note to investors, New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu estimated that Sprint would need a $20 billion capital injection if the merger doesn’t go through..
In a filing with the Federal Communications Commission on Monday, Sprint said it suffered from a “huge debt load” of $40 billion and cited an analyst’s report saying Sprint “could restructure their balance sheet through a Chapter 11 process” in U.S. bankruptcy court.



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[RedSpark]

49 minutes ago, tyroned3222 said:

it’s sad to say, but SoftBank is looking for a bailout by any means necessary.
In a note to investors, New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu estimated that Sprint would need a $20 billion capital injection if the merger doesn’t go through..
In a filing with the Federal Communications Commission on Monday, Sprint said it suffered from a “huge debt load” of $40 billion and cited an analyst’s report saying Sprint “could restructure their balance sheet through a Chapter 11 process” in U.S. bankruptcy court.



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SoftBank doesn't need a bailout. That's the ridiculous thing. They have plenty of money on hand.... They're just not giving it to Sprint. It's pathetic.

Masa put Sprint in this position by trying to do a monopole build on the cheap as opposed to a traditional network build... and when that floundered because of regulatory issues that should have always been anticipated as a risk but weren't for some reason, Sprint had no viable backup plan because it had passed on the 600 MHz Spectrum it needed for a traditional network build. Marcelo went along with this because he was a "yes man" to Masa and wanted to ride his coat tails to SoftBank. The Former CFO even used the term "Spectrum of the past" to refer to 600 MHz because there was so much misplaced confidence about this strategy. Interestingly, Guenther got out... Perhaps he had a feeling this wouldn't work or he disagreed with the overall plan.... which is probably why Hesse got the boot by Masa as well.

Would Chapter 11 do Sprint some good at this point? If it's about to go off the rails and be relegated to carrier purgatory due to SoftBank's unwillingness to inject any capital, then perhaps it would. What a shame.

[tyroned3222]

SoftBank doesn't need a bailout. That's the ridiculous thing. They have plenty of money on hand.... They're just not giving it to Sprint. It's pathetic.
Masa put Sprint in this position by trying to do a monopole build on the cheap as opposed to a traditional network build... and when that floundered because of regulatory issues that should have always been anticipated as a risk but weren't for some reason, Sprint had no viable backup plan because it had passed on the 600 MHz Spectrum it needed for a traditional network build. Marcelo went along with this because he was a "yes man" to Masa and wanted to ride his coat tails to SoftBank. The Former CFO even used the term "Spectrum of the past" to refer to 600 MHz because there was so much misplaced confidence about this strategy. Interestingly, Guenther got out... Perhaps he had a feeling this wouldn't work or he disagreed with the overall plan.... which is probably why Hesse got the boot by Masa as well.
Would Chapter 11 do Sprint some good at this point? If it's about to go off the rails and be relegated to carrier purgatory due to SoftBank's unwillingness to inject any capital, then perhaps it would. What a shame.

As I recall .. SoftBanks banks are not allowing them to pour in anymore money in to sprint


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[RedSpark]

Just now, tyroned3222 said:

As I recall .. SoftBanks banks are not allowing them to pour in anymore money in to sprint


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Time for SoftBank to find some new banks... or it could find itself with a bankrupt asset.

[Johnner1999]

Time for SoftBank to find some new banks... or it could find itself with a bankrupt asset.

I suspect that would actually be preferred for SoftBank. As it would remove doubt


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[bigsnake49]

I am willing to bet that Sprint will declare chapter 11 soon after the merger fails.

[derrph]

If Sprint does indeed files chapter 11, what happens at that point besides restructuring of their balance sheet? Will we still prices go up, etc?


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[tyroned3222]

If Sprint does indeed files chapter 11, what happens at that point besides restructuring of their balance sheet? Will we still prices go up, etc?


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With their spectrum (2.5) sprint could have the last laugh if they are serious and get away from their failing mentality. They could have a premium 5G network, but it would come at a cost to the consumer


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[derrph]

With their spectrum (2.5) sprint could have the last laugh if they are serious and get away from their failing mentality. They could have a premium 5G network, but it would come at a cost to the consumer

 

 

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That makes sense. It’s so sad because there’s beyond ALOT of potential with Sprint and the assets they have but there’s no one at the front of the company who is serious about letting Sprint excel. As long as there’s no one in charge who genuinely cares for Sprint the other carriers have nothing to worry about. Make no

Mistake, they all know the damage Sprint can do.

 

 

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[Mr.Nuke]

I'm glad to see no one is overacting...

[RedSpark]

17 minutes ago, Mr.Nuke said:

I'm glad to see no one is overacting...

Do you believe Sprint is being forthright/honest in its FCC Filing, or is it making gloom/doom embellishments for merger purposes?

[Mr.Nuke]

17 minutes ago, RedSpark said:

Do you believe Sprint is being forthright/honest in its FCC Filing, or is it making gloom/doom embellishments for merger purposes?

I seem to recall this conversation 10 months ago.

https://s4gru.com/forums/topic/7845-sprint-tmobile-merger-disc/?do=findComment&comment=530234

[RedSpark]

2 minutes ago, Mr.Nuke said:

I seem to recall this conversation 10 months ago.

https://s4gru.com/forums/topic/7845-sprint-tmobile-merger-disc/?do=findComment&comment=530234

Yes. I do recall that as well.

However, this Filing appears to be a much more bleak assessment of Sprint than before. Although we can't see the numbers/info behind the highly confidential redactions, it seems apparent from the visible language that explains these numbers/info in the Filing that Sprint is in deeper trouble than it was before, and it's only getting worse as time goes on. How would Sprint otherwise spin this empirical data that it's putting forward to the FCC?

[Tengen31]

Yes. I do recall that as well.

However, this Filing appears to be a much more bleak assessment of Sprint than before. Although we can't see the numbers/info behind the highly confidential redactions, it seems apparent from the visible language that explains these numbers/info in the Filing that Sprint is in deeper trouble than it was before, and it's only getting worse as time goes on. How would Sprint otherwise spin this empirical data that it's putting forward to the FCC?

If the merger does fail I am interested in seeing where Sprint actually does go not where people online think/ Claim they will go.

 

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[NYC126]

5 hours ago, tyroned3222 said:

As I recall .. SoftBanks banks are not allowing them to pour in anymore money in to sprint


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They never injected any money anyways. All Masa did was that scheme of putting the spectrum as collateral.

[RedSpark]

https://www.cnet.com/news/t-mobiles-john-legere-denies-justice-department-pushback-on-sprint-merger/

Hmmmmm.....