Official Tmobile-Sprint merger discussion thread

[tyroned3222]

https://seekingalpha.com/amp/news/3349678-sprint-plus-5_8-percent-report-t-mobile-aiming-merger-deal-next-week?source=ansh&__twitter_impression=true Get ready everyone

 

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[Paynefanbro]

The source also says this which SeekingAlpha conveniently left out;

Quote

There is no certainty that a deal will be reached, the sources cautioned. The companies came close to a merger agreement in November before SoftBank’s chief executive officer, Masayoshi Son, pulled out of the talks at the last minute.

But otherwise it seems that if it does happen, both sides will get what they want out of it.

[tyroned3222]

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[danlodish345]

8 hours ago, bigsnake49 said:

Wake me up when they actually finish something. When they're not waiting for...Godot...I mean to get merged. Wake me up when they actually deploy triband on all their sites. Wake me up when they implement 4x4 MIMO, 256QAM and 3CA on all their sites. Wake me up when they stop roaming in suburban and exurban areas and get control of their roaming costs. Wake me up when they actually execute. For me, it is the execution part that makes this merger attractive. I just want them to actually execute and they can only do it under competent leadership. I want them out of the hands of Softbank.

i agree with what your saying...i dont wish to see sprint leave...but with current patterns and the way the network is...i actually only believe the results only when i see them right in front of me. sprints network here speed wise has improved... i will admit that but their lte coverage here is still horribly inconsistent and spotty...so when i can get lte off the main highway and use the service with minimal issues then i will come back to sprint.

[tyroned3222]

1 hour ago, Paynefanbro said:

The source also says this which SeekingAlpha conveniently left out;

But otherwise it seems that if it does happen, both sides will get what they want out of it.

Quote

There is no certainty that a deal will be reached, the sources cautioned. The companies came close to a merger agreement in November before SoftBank’s chief executive officer, Masayoshi Son, pulled out of the talks at the last minute.

 

I just saw the article you quoted .. that article is hinting a purchase of sprint by DT .. by get a debt financing plan together

 

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[Paynefanbro]

8 minutes ago, tyroned3222 said:

I just saw the article you quoted .. that article is saying that DT is going to buy sprint .. by get a debt financing plan together.

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It also says "T-Mobile majority-owner Deutsche Telekom and Japan’s SoftBank Group Corp, which controls Sprint, are considering an agreement that would dictate how they exercise voting control over the combined company, one of the sources said.This could allow Deutsche Telekom to consolidate the combined company on its books, even if it does not have a majority stake in the combined company, one of the sources added."

So it seems they both get what they want. Who knows the ins and outs of it this deal though.

[S4GRU]

8 hours ago, bigsnake49 said:

Wake me up when they actually finish something. When they're not waiting for...Godot...I mean to get merged. Wake me up when they actually deploy triband on all their sites. Wake me up when they implement 4x4 MIMO, 256QAM and 3CA on all their sites. Wake me up when they stop roaming in suburban and exurban areas and get control of their roaming costs. Wake me up when they actually execute. For me, it is the execution part that makes this merger attractive. I just want them to actually execute and they can only do it under competent leadership. I want them out of the hands of Softbank.

That's a convenient stand.  No one else makes a big stand on a network initiative, defines it, titles it and then has a site that reports on it and measures it.  All the other networks start new internal initiatives before others end.  They are all in incremental movements going forward.  They are just quiet about it and making it almost impossible to track and measure.  But with Sprint, it's different.  We are watching a very detailed and explained network progression that S4GRU watches very closely and our members report every movement.  So we know everywhere that everything is happening.  And not happening for that matter.

If we all just sat back and watched for the LTE signal icon or cared about whether the network worked for them, Sprint wouldn't be judged so harshly.  Like I said before, Sprint keeps getting better and better.  Not worse and worse.  And in every way.  So you can say whatever you like, but Sprint is in a better position.  And they are in a better position to keep upgrading too.

In my area, Sprint outperforms Verizon, T-Mobile and AT&T in most places.  Regardless of what some of you said above about Seattle, we are one of the most important tech markets in the country.  And Sprint is kicking it here.  And we have only a little 800MHz deployed so far.  It's going to get even better.  And there are many places like Seattle in the country.  But you just keep on being negative.  It's OK.

But negative Sprint comments at S4GRU need to be constructive in nature.  And this thread is starting to get sideways.  The bitching is rising.  And for no good reason except for some of you just don't believe it.  As if they haven't been pouring billions in the network and it hasn't been getting better and better every year.  There's lots of places for people to bitch about Sprint and how you're not convinced.  But S4GRU ain't one of them.  Thanks.

Robert

[Mr.Nuke]

52 minutes ago, tyroned3222 said:

 

 

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Why not link the the actual report instead of a 2nd hand telling of said report? https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sprint-corp-m-a-t-mobile-us-exclusive/exclusive-t-mobile-sprint-make-progress-aim-for-deal-next-week-sources-idUSKBN1HX3G6

[JossMan]

Son not gonna give up that treasure trove of 2.5 spectrum for cheap, $12 per share minimum.  Gonna love my May 2018 calls!  Cha-ching! 

[greenbastard]

2 hours ago, JossMan said:

Son not gonna give up that treasure trove of 2.5 spectrum for cheap, $12 per share minimum.  Gonna love my May 2018 calls!  Cha-ching! 

Didn't Sprint use a small part of their spectrum licenses for a leaseback deal? I believe the last reports had 14% of their spectrum being leased back to them, but that number could have grown since then due to Sprint's desire to raise money.

I'm don't know if this impacted Softbank's negotiating leverage, but I'm sure it was brought up.

[ase500]

Son not gonna give up that treasure trove of 2.5 spectrum for cheap, $12 per share minimum.  Gonna love my May 2018 calls!  Cha-ching! 

I don't even know where to start. Price is immaterial at this point. You can own 99 percent of all the shares in a company and if those shares are nonvoting you have no say in how the company runs. As I have been saying forever the issue was never about price it was about the shares being voting or nonvoting. The Reuters article confirms that was and remains the issue. What has changed is that there are several clocks are now ticking and time is not on Tmobile's side. This is why talks are occurring again. Either Son believes he now has a better advantage or Tmobile realizes that they don't have the spectrum or the physical network to really make a run of 5G.

Remember only Sprint is talking about a mobile 5G network. The other 3 are talking about hotspots and Fixed wireless 5G. The public in general doesn't understand this. This also realigns the market. For 5G At&t and Verizon will be competing in the marketplace with wireline operators. Notice that as those two have been selling off wireline assets, they have been selling them to companies like Frontier, who couldn't ever compete with fixed wireless 5G. Tmobile would also be entering this same market and they are missing one huge advantage all three of the others have. Tier one internet backbones. They also don't have the spectrum to build a 5G mobile network.

Stop and think about the position that leaves Tmobile in. Reliant on one side on the same companies they are competing against. And unable to provide actual 5G speeds in the mobile market.

They would have to be stoned or stupid not to give Son the one thing he asked for. Voting rights.

So is price the issue? No. It is an all stock deal and it doesn't matter what exchange price is set if the stock awarded is nonvoting. He would have to have faith in the germans to run the company properly or say goodbye to all of the money spent into Sprint.


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[bigsnake49]

Yes, T-mobile needs the 2.5GHz spectrum but they are not desperate. There is a lot of spectrum to be cleared in the CBRS and 3.7-4-2GHz bands and even sharing the 5GHz band with WiFi for LAA. The object of the merger is to spread costs over a larger customer base. The timing is critical. They need to do this before Sprint spends $5-6B on the network because the synergies will not be as extensive and Sprint would have added another $5-6B of debt. Sprint would have duplicated a lot of T-Mobile's network. Also after Sprint completes their network deployment, the price for Sprint would be higher.

Edited April 27, 2018 by bigsnake49

[RedSpark]

This article succinctly explains T-Mobile’s 5G Deployment Issue... and in my opinion, T-Mobile needs Sprint more than Sprint needs T-Mobile.

https://www.pcmag.com/news/360673/t-mobile-5g-wont-start-out-much-faster-than-4g

According to Karri Kuoppamaki, T-Mobile's VP of radio network technology development and strategy, higher-frequency millimeter wave spectrum only has cells about 900 feet wide, though Verizon's chief network officer Nicola Palmer said last year that they can get gigabit speeds at 2,000 feet from a cell.

_______

This comes out to......

A 900 foot cell radius which comes out to 0.1 square miles.

The continental US is over 3 million square miles.

It’s therefore pretty hard to make an economic case for a widespread depolyment of Millimeter Wave.

While T-Mobile’s 600MHz network has good Propagation, it doesn’t have the capacity for true 5G speeds so it will need to be supplemented with Millimeter Wave for high-speed.... and the economics for a wide deployment of Millimeter Wave are hard to justify.

VS.

Sprint’s 5G Approach with 2.5 GHz

Dr. Saw has said this about Millimeter Wave previously:

https://www.lightreading.com/mobile/5g/sprint-says-no-to-mmwave-yes-to-mobile-5g/d/d-id/739592

 Sprint's CTO said Wednesday that he is not sure that using millimeter waves to deliver 5G services is a practical economic use of the high-band spectrum and that Sprint will be focusing on using its existing bandwidth to deploy 5G, at least initially.

_________

Dr. Saw’s specific quotes about this are very important:

"What is the cost to deliver a bit over millimeter waves? Where is the business case on that?" John Saw asked at the Citi conference in Las Vegas.

and

"We need to solve the cost challenges before you can scale millimeter wave," Saw said.

__________

Dr. Saw did say that mmWave could be useful as a hotspot "overlay" to a lower band 5G network, but he also added that "the laws of physics say it won't propagate very far."

T-Mobile needs Sprint more than Sprint needs T-Mobile.

[Paynefanbro]

1 hour ago, bigsnake49 said:

Yes, T-mobile needs the 2.5GHz spectrum but they are not desperate. There is a lot of spectrum to be cleared in the CBRS and 3.7-4-2GHz bands and even sharing the 5GHz band with WiFi for LAA. The object of the merger is to spread costs over a larger customer base. The timing is critical. They need to do this before Sprint spends $5-6B on the network because the synergies will not be as extensive and Sprint would have added another $5-6B of debt. Sprint would have duplicated a lot of T-Mobile's network. Also after Sprint completes their network deployment, the price for Sprint would be higher.

I keep seeing people say T-Mobile isn't desperate but they clearly are. Otherwise they wouldn't be complaining left and right about how Verizon and AT&T have so much mmWave spectrum. CBRS is a lot of spectrum but without a doubt everyone will be trying to get their hands on it considering it'll be one of the few global 5G bands (along with BRS/EBS in China and Japan). Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile, and even Sprint have acknowledged that they have their eye on it.

LAA will be great for gigabit speeds in hotspots just like mmWave will be great for gigabit speeds in hotspots. The only carrier with the capability currently to deploy gigabit speeds via LTE and 5G-NR simultaneously over their entire network is Sprint. Every carrier wants that. Verizon and AT&T know they'd never be able to get away with a purchase of Sprint and we know Verizon tried at one point to buy some of the BRS/EBS spectrum from Sprint and they said no.

[bigsnake49]

For all the enthusiasm about 5G, Huawei is trying to temper expectations about the nascent technology:

Chairman Eric Xu said that while 5G was faster and more reliable, consumers would find no “material difference between the two technologies”. The technology has been hailed as a necessity for the coming age of autonomous driving, and the billions of connected devices making up the internet of things. But Mr Xu pointed out that “even today we have the technology that can support autonomous driving”. Analysts said Huawei’s reversal echoed a broader sense of gloom among telecoms operators and kit manufacturers. “Pessimism about 5G has been growing behind the scenes in the mobile industry but Huawei is the first large infrastructure company to state it explicitly,” said Ben Stanton, analyst at Canalys. “The reality is that 5G will be incredibly expensive for operators to deploy, requiring tens of thousands of new base stations per country. And the industry is yet to uncover a killer-use case for the 5G network.” Mr Stanton also noted that it was “becoming clear that oft-cited use cases, like IoT and self-driving cars, are actually more dependent on computing power built into the device itself, rather than the network”.

https://www.ft.com/content/a4dc54a6-4225-11e8-93cf-67ac3a6482fd

I personally think that private networks such as on a company floor maybe the killer application for 5G. Low latency, reliability is what the industrial sector is looking for.

As far as IoT, it is amazing how little bandwidth IoT takes. If you're thinking about making money from IoT, think again. 

As far as I am concerned there is no killer use case for 5G. It will be just more of the same, more bandwidth. We can get Gigabit bandwidth right now. 

[RedSpark]

Anyone else find it suspicious that neither Sprint nor T-Mobile have announced their respective Earnings Calls yet?

Sprint Investor Relations: http://investors.sprint.com/Home/default.aspx

T-Mobile Investor Relations: http://investor.t-mobile.com/

[utiz4321]

27 minutes ago, bigsnake49 said:

For all the enthusiasm about 5G, Huawei is trying to temper expectations about the nascent technology:

Chairman Eric Xu said that while 5G was faster and more reliable, consumers would find no “material difference between the two technologies”. The technology has been hailed as a necessity for the coming age of autonomous driving, and the billions of connected devices making up the internet of things. But Mr Xu pointed out that “even today we have the technology that can support autonomous driving”. Analysts said Huawei’s reversal echoed a broader sense of gloom among telecoms operators and kit manufacturers. “Pessimism about 5G has been growing behind the scenes in the mobile industry but Huawei is the first large infrastructure company to state it explicitly,” said Ben Stanton, analyst at Canalys. “The reality is that 5G will be incredibly expensive for operators to deploy, requiring tens of thousands of new base stations per country. And the industry is yet to uncover a killer-use case for the 5G network.” Mr Stanton also noted that it was “becoming clear that oft-cited use cases, like IoT and self-driving cars, are actually more dependent on computing power built into the device itself, rather than the network”.

https://www.ft.com/content/a4dc54a6-4225-11e8-93cf-67ac3a6482fd

I personally think that private networks such as on a company floor maybe the killer application for 5G. Low latency, reliability is what the industrial sector is looking for.

As far as IoT, it is amazing how little bandwidth IoT takes. If you're thinking about making money from IoT, think again. 

As far as I am concerned there is no killer use case for 5G. It will be just more of the same, more bandwidth. We can get Gigabit bandwidth right now. 

The killer use case is capacity. Imgine if the carriers didnt have to build an entirely new network every 5 years, that would be your use case. 

[Paynefanbro]

FierceWireless echoing my sentiments. https://www.fiercewireless.com/5g/softbank-s-ceo-may-be-getting-what-he-wants-out-sprint-t-mobile-merger

[RedSpark]

8 minutes ago, Paynefanbro said:

FierceWireless echoing my sentiments. https://www.fiercewireless.com/5g/softbank-s-ceo-may-be-getting-what-he-wants-out-sprint-t-mobile-merger

So Masa/Marcelo will be in the driver’s seat?

[bigsnake49]

1 hour ago, Paynefanbro said:

FierceWireless echoing my sentiments. https://www.fiercewireless.com/5g/softbank-s-ceo-may-be-getting-what-he-wants-out-sprint-t-mobile-merger

That article is as muddy as heck. The only thing I got out of that is that DT will have the most voting shares whereas Softbank will have the most shares some of them non-voting.

Edited April 27, 2018 by bigsnake49

[Arysyn]

21 hours ago, S4GRU said:

That's a convenient stand.  No one else makes a big stand on a network initiative, defines it, titles it and then has a site that reports on it and measures it.  All the other networks start new internal initiatives before others end.  They are all in incremental movements going forward.  They are just quiet about it and making it almost impossible to track and measure.  But with Sprint, it's different.  We are watching a very detailed and explained network progression that S4GRU watches very closely and our members report every movement.  So we know everywhere that everything is happening.  And not happening for that matter.

If we all just sat back and watched for the LTE signal icon or cared about whether the network worked for them, Sprint wouldn't be judged so harshly.  Like I said before, Sprint keeps getting better and better.  Not worse and worse.  And in every way.  So you can say whatever you like, but Sprint is in a better position.  And they are in a better position to keep upgrading too.

In my area, Sprint outperforms Verizon, T-Mobile and AT&T in most places.  Regardless of what some of you said above about Seattle, we are one of the most important tech markets in the country.  And Sprint is kicking it here.  And we have only a little 800MHz deployed so far.  It's going to get even better.  And there are many places like Seattle in the country.  But you just keep on being negative.  It's OK.

But negative Sprint comments at S4GRU need to be constructive in nature.  And this thread is starting to get sideways.  The bitching is rising.  And for no good reason except for some of you just don't believe it.  As if they haven't been pouring billions in the network and it hasn't been getting better and better every year.  There's lots of places for people to bitch about Sprint and how you're not convinced.  But S4GRU ain't one of them.  Thanks.

Robert

Robert, I understand what you're saying, and Sprint-bashing definitely is not a good thing here, and thats totally fine. The issue I think bigsnake is addressing is frustration not at Sprint itself, but rather at Softbank. We've seen Softbank neglecting Sprint several times these past few years of ownership while Sprint has tried to make due with what they've had, and I don't think anyone here, including me, is denying that they have done the best they can with that.

Yet it isn't perfect (I'm not saying you're claiming that either), but the further problem are for customers in areas that were expecting improvement were there haven't been, from all the planned upgrades discussed the past few years which perhaps haven't been executed in areas that were suppose to go in. This isn't necessarily Sprint's fault though, as again I'm sure Sprint management wants to do this, but they need the funding support, especially that of their parent company Softbank, which just hasn't been there for Sprint, leaving Sprint to doing the best they can with what they have, which in reality isn't good enough for many areas where there still are complaints. It doesn't have to be this way if Sprint gets the proper support it needs.

You all know I'm not a fan of John Legere and I definitely have issues with T-Mobile. However, I'm not going to deny that they haven't done exceptionally well on its network growth and from that I have complete confidence that if this merger goes through, a year after we'll be here looking at a network we've been wanting to see for many years with band 41 deployed on most, if not all towers, all the negative reputation Sprint had will be gone, and there will be premium level network service for all T-Mobile and Sprint customers which is the whole point to having wireless service - customers should expect an excellent network throughout the country.

[utiz4321]

2 hours ago, bigsnake49 said:

That article is as muddy as heck. The only thing I got out of that is that DT will have the most voting shares whereas Softbank will have the most shares some of them non-voting.

That doesnt seem like mass getting what he wants given that he said he wanted control. The other way around would seem to fit more with both companies stated interests. 

[utiz4321]

4 hours ago, RedSpark said:

Anyone else find it suspicious that neither Sprint nor T-Mobile have announced their respective Earnings Calls yet?

Sprint Investor Relations: http://investors.sprint.com/Home/default.aspx

T-Mobile Investor Relations: http://investor.t-mobile.com/

I was just going to comment on that. It is probably a very good sign that the talks are pretty advanced and near a deal. 

[Arysyn]

1 minute ago, utiz4321 said:

I was just going to comment on that. It is probably a very good sign that the talks are pretty advanced and near a deal. 

I sure hope so. I figured it would come back from last year. I really doubt anything is going to stop it this time around, except maybe the government. Things are really strange with the U.S. government lately, so we'll see.

[RedSpark]

Marcelo has been all over the place....

Tokyo:

Kansas City:

New York:

The travel itinerary of a deal in the works?