600 MHz auction results posted and transition schedule

[Hmight]

I don't know any of participating carriers have that much money to spend.

LOL, Tmo and T will look to spend the most.  Even if you count VZ in the mix, the expected amount is no where near the 86B mark. Unless someone besides the carriers are bold enough to spend a crap load more (aka. Dish, but Dish does not have another 13B to throw into this auction), this auction will drag into 2017 and beyond.  This would mean the spectrum won't be used for another 39 months after the auction has ended.  

[Paynefanbro]

Yeah this is not going to be as successful as some hoped it would be.

 

Sent from my Nexus 6 using Tapatalk

[caspar347]

Yeah this is not going to be as successful as some hoped it would be.

 

Sent from my Nexus 6 using Tapatalk

Well assuming Sprint was telling the truth all those times they said they weren't gonna participate/aren't planning around getting more low band, this is good news for Sprint and their shareholders.

[Paynefanbro]

Well assuming Sprint was telling the truth all those times they said they weren't gonna participate/aren't planning around getting more low band, this is good news for Sprint and their shareholders.

 

This gives Sprint more time to catch up on densification while the other carriers are busy hashing it out on this spectrum that they'll likely struggle to get 10x10 in in many locations. Granted, any low band is useful in this day and age especially because of VoLTE but careful network engineering could solve a lot of the problems of VoLTE without spending billions on more spectrum.

[clbowens]

This gives Sprint more time to catch up on densification while the other carriers are busy hashing it out on this spectrum that they'll likely struggle to get 10x10 in in many locations. Granted, any low band is useful in this day and age especially because of VoLTE but careful network engineering could solve a lot of the problems of VoLTE without spending billions on more spectrum.

 

IF they finish their densification by then.  :-)

[dnwk]

I think in the end it may end up only 30-40Mhz being bought.

[Volaris]

Yeah that amount is insane. Most analysts were expecting something in the $30 something billion range, not almost $90 billion. That said, some on reddit are saying that it may be due to a small amount of broadcasters in big markets wanting a huge amount of money for their spectrum, in which case there may still be a lot of fairly priced spectrum available once they're removed. Guess we'll know when the auction restarts at 90MHz and so on. 

 

If the spectrum is too expensive, I can see Verizon walking away and using that money to negotiate with Dish instead. Getting 10x10 nationwide wouldn't help Verizon much with capacity, anyways. AT&T will probably still get 10x10 nationwide since they like spending money. And T-Mobile is thrifty when it comes to spectrum, so I never expected them to go for 10x10 nationwide. I expect them to go for 10x10 in markets that lack 700 and/or are spectrum starved. Most of these areas are rural (generally forgotten markets they've never focused on before) so spectrum should be dirt cheap - this will allow them to continue expanding their network footprint and kill off regionals like US Cellular and C-spire. What they do in populated areas will depend on price - if it's too expensive they're better off doing what Sprint/Verizon are doing and densify/add capacity to their existing spectrum.

[bigsnake49]

There will be many, many rounds of auctions. People are cutting the cord so broadcast spectrum should be losing value. People like to watch what they want when they want. The only thing that they want to watch simultaneously is sports and that's about it. Do I really care that there is a re-run of the 3rd episode of Criminal minds on some UHF channel at 11:30. No, I go to Netflix and binge watch the damn thing. I watch news online. Pretty soon I will cut the cable cord entirely and I am not the only one. And not a millennial by any stretch of the imagination. Broadcast TV is losing its attractiveness.

[WiWavelength]

There will be many, many rounds of auctions. People are cutting the cord so broadcast spectrum should be losing value. People like to watch what they want when they want. The only thing that they want to watch simultaneously is sports and that's about it. Do I really care that there is a re-run of the 3rd episode of Criminal minds on some UHF channel at 11:30. No, I go to Netflix and binge watch the damn thing. I watch news online. Pretty soon I will cut the cable cord entirely and I am not the only one. And not a millennial by any stretch of the imagination. Broadcast TV is losing its attractiveness.

 

Your evidence does not lead to your conclusion -- without making a big assumption about others based upon yourself.  Look at the statistics about "cord cutters" and OTA broadcast TV.  Many are cutting egregiously rising costs by ditching cable/satellite for just OTA or a combo of OTA and streaming service(s).  That bolsters, does not erode the value of OTA broadcast TV spectrum.

 

AJ

[red_dog007]

​

In a lot of rural areas that TMobile needs spectrum, they have to compete with those local rural broadcasters like CSpire and USCC in the reserved spectrum.  AT&T also gets to bid on that in a lot of places as well.  So it may not be so cheap for TMobile.  I expect them to fill in as much as possible, but if the high prices continue, I think TMobile will be lucky to get a single block in all the markets they won't be able to acquire a 700A license in.

​

​Not sure what AT&T will do.  They just bought DirecTV and are now committed to deploying FTTH/FTTP to 12 million residents.  They have actually be very active out in my neck of the woods in my rural area.  Then I'd imagine they would be more interested in getting the remaining AWS3.  They won really big and can possibly get even more once the forfeited AWS3 goes back for auction. It will also be a heck of a lot cheaper I am sure in acquiring Dish's 700E block.  AT&T and VZW are past the point of needing low band to maximize coverage.  They are at the point where they just need capacity. 

​

​

​I have a feeling this is just going to bust if the wild cards like Comcast and Dish do not participate.

[bigsnake49]

Your evidence does not lead to your conclusion -- without making a big assumption about others based upon yourself.  Look at the statistics about "cord cutters" and OTA broadcast TV.  Many are cutting egregiously rising costs by ditching cable/satellite for just OTA or a combo of OTA and streaming service(s).  That bolsters, does not erode the value of OTA broadcast TV spectrum.

 

AJ

 

I have yet to see any of my friends or neighbors put up any OTA antennas. I have seen all of them signup for Netflix HBO GO or Showtime GO or Sling and or Watch ESPN. I understand if you live in the boondocks OTA is attractive but I would like to know what is the percentage of actual OTA of local stations vs cable or streaming where all of those are available. I get cable for free and besides a few football games use it sparingly. Streaming has taken over. Not DVR's recording OTA, streaming. No commercials.

[bigsnake49]

​

In a lot of rural areas that TMobile needs spectrum, they have to compete with those local rural broadcasters like CSpire and USCC in the reserved spectrum.  AT&T also gets to bid on that in a lot of places as well.  So it may not be so cheap for TMobile.  I expect them to fill in as much as possible, but if the high prices continue, I think TMobile will be lucky to get a single block in all the markets they won't be able to acquire a 700A license in.

​

​Not sure what AT&T will do.  They just bought DirecTV and are now committed to deploying FTTH/FTTP to 12 million residents.  They have actually be very active out in my neck of the woods in my rural area.  Then I'd imagine they would be more interested in getting the remaining AWS3.  They won really big and can possibly get even more once the forfeited AWS3 goes back for auction. It will also be a heck of a lot cheaper I am sure in acquiring Dish's 700E block.  AT&T and VZW are past the point of needing low band to maximize coverage.  They are at the point where they just need capacity. 

​

​

​I have a feeling this is just going to bust if the wild cards like Comcast and Dish do not participate.

 

Verizon is going through a massive small cell densification effort and I doubt they will need spectrum anytime soon. They still have not reformed their 850MHz for LTE. T-Mobile can also densify using small cells. Then of course there is the LTE-U/LTEAA small cell effort. Will they be using 3.5GHz at some point?

 

[red_dog007]

I have yet to see any of my friends or neighbors put up any OTA antennas. I have seen all of them signup for Netflix HBO GO or Showtime GO or Sling and or Watch ESPN. I understand if you live in the boondocks OTA is attractive but I would like to know what is the percentage of actual OTA of local stations vs cable or streaming where all of those are available. I get cable for free and besides a few football games use it sparingly. Streaming has taken over. Not DVR's recording OTA, streaming. No commercials.

 

You don't need to put an antenna on your roof or outside to get OTA.  But I do see a LOT of them around here.  But that also doesn't mean that they are used.  You used to have to use antenna to get local channels as the satellite provider would charge extra for those.  

 

But simple indoor antennas do just fine for a lot of people if you are within 20~40miles.  Put on top of the TV, behind the TV, whatever.  Some people even mount the antenna in their attic.  I had one of those antennas as flat as a sheet of paper and picked up +90% reception at 22 miles away all the big stations.  

 

But here is just one estimate. https://blog.gfk.com/2013/06/confessions-of-a-cord-cutter-skeptic-revisited/

You can use Google too.  See what you find.  See if there is a general consensuses or if data is all over the place.

[greenbastard]

I have yet to see any of my friends or neighbors put up any OTA antennas. I have seen all of them signup for Netflix HBO GO or Showtime GO or Sling and or Watch ESPN. I understand if you live in the boondocks OTA is attractive but I would like to know what is the percentage of actual OTA of local stations vs cable or streaming where all of those are available. I get cable for free and besides a few football games use it sparingly. Streaming has taken over. Not DVR's recording OTA, streaming. No commercials.

The first thing I did after I cut the cord was install an antenna in my attic to wire all the TV's to OTA broadcast. I use it on and off. There's really only so much streaming you can do quite honestly. OTA is now more important than ever for people looking for live events not available online (nfl, local newscast, some college football, etc).

 

The one thing I will say that will decline pretty soon is FM radio. Bluetooth is the FM radio slayer. FM will still be around for a long time, but profitability will continue to dwindle as more people adapt to smartphones and buy cars with Bluetooth in them. Local radio will soon be replaced by voice tracking and jock-less broadcasts in every market. I honestly can't remember when was the last time I used the FM or AM tuner on my vehicle.

[dnwk]

​

In a lot of rural areas that TMobile needs spectrum, they have to compete with those local rural broadcasters like CSpire and USCC in the reserved spectrum.  AT&T also gets to bid on that in a lot of places as well.  So it may not be so cheap for TMobile.  I expect them to fill in as much as possible, but if the high prices continue, I think TMobile will be lucky to get a single block in all the markets they won't be able to acquire a 700A license in.

​

​Not sure what AT&T will do.  They just bought DirecTV and are now committed to deploying FTTH/FTTP to 12 million residents.  They have actually be very active out in my neck of the woods in my rural area.  Then I'd imagine they would be more interested in getting the remaining AWS3.  They won really big and can possibly get even more once the forfeited AWS3 goes back for auction. It will also be a heck of a lot cheaper I am sure in acquiring Dish's 700E block.  AT&T and VZW are past the point of needing low band to maximize coverage.  They are at the point where they just need capacity. 

​

​

​I have a feeling this is just going to bust if the wild cards like Comcast and Dish do not participate.

 

I think AT&T and VZ are in the auction mainly to prevent T-Mobile from walk away with huge amount of spectrum dirt cheap.

[WiWavelength]

I think AT&T and VZ are in the auction mainly to prevent T-Mobile from walk away with huge amount of spectrum dirt cheap.

 

No.  T-Mobile cannot "walk away with huge amount of spectrum dirt cheap."  At every level, this auction has a reserve price.  If that reserve price is not met, bids are nullified, and the auction starts again for a smaller amount of spectrum at a lower reserve price.  So, T-Mobile may be able to win a little bit of spectrum for a few billion dollars.  But it is impossible for T-Mobile to win a "huge amount of spectrum" for a few billion dollars.

 

AJ

[Deval]

No.  T-Mobile cannot "walk away with huge amount of spectrum dirt cheap."  At every level, this auction has a reserve price.  If that reserve price is not met, bids are nullified, and the auction starts again for a smaller amount of spectrum at a lower reserve price.  So, T-Mobile may be able to win a little bit of spectrum for a few billion dollars.  But it is impossible for T-Mobile to win a "huge amount of spectrum" for a few billion dollars.

 

AJ

 

Try explaining that to the people on the TMobile subreddit.

[clbowens]

http://www.lightreading.com/mobile/spectrum/fcc-reverses-again-on-600mhz/d/d-id/726174?_mc=RSS_LR_EDT

 

This sounds like this spectrum will not be commercially deployed for at LEAST 5 years from now.  What do you guys think?

[IamMrFamous07]

http://www.lightreading.com/mobile/spectrum/fcc-reverses-again-on-600mhz/d/d-id/726174?_mc=RSS_LR_EDT

 

This sounds like this spectrum will not be commercially deployed for at LEAST 5 years from now. What do you guys think?

Crazy. Glad Sprint stayed away from this auction

[derrph]

http://www.lightreading.com/mobile/spectrum/fcc-reverses-again-on-600mhz/d/d-id/726174?_mc=RSS_LR_EDT

 

This sounds like this spectrum will not be commercially deployed for at LEAST 5 years from now. What do you guys think?

Wow. This plays in Sprints favor pretty well as it stands.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone 6s+ using Tapatalk

[bigsnake49]

How much do TV stations in the 600MHz band make per year? Most of them actually will be repacked in lower bands so they are not going to lose their allocation. The millennials don't watch TV, either OTA or cable or satellite. So why the hell are we paying the OTA spectrum holders? Can somebody tell me?

[caspar347]

How much do TV stations in the 600MHz band make per year? Most of them actually will be repacked in lower bands so they are not going to lose their allocation. The millennials don't watch TV, either OTA or cable or satellite. So why the hell are we paying the OTA spectrum holders? Can somebody tell me?

Swapping the equipment costs money.

 

But we should really be mad at Dish here for what they pulled during AWS-3. That's the main reason the 600 projections were so expensive.

[Arysyn]

How much do TV stations in the 600MHz band make per year? Most of them actually will be repacked in lower bands so they are not going to lose their allocation. The millennials don't watch TV, either OTA or cable or satellite. So why the hell are we paying the OTA spectrum holders? Can somebody tell me?

 

This is exactly what I've been thinking for months.

 

I've made my opinions about these OTA broadcasters here in the past when a group of members and I had a debate over the validity of the services provided by the broadcasters. Many at that time defended them here, that along with the values of having OTA available to people. I respect those opinions, but mine stand the same in that I think this is a waste of spectrum that could better be put to use by wireless companies for adding to 4G LTE and even 5G services, rather than waste the spectrum so people can watch the local news for free over antenna.

 

However, not meaning to start a debate/argument over the issue again, just saying...

[mozamcrew]

Anyone who thought we'd actually get to the $86B reserve price was kidding themselves. Verizon and ATT have plenty of low band spectrum with 700Mhz and Cellular frequencies, they really don't NEED much more, they'll only bid if the price is low enough. Only the smaller carriers are going to be in the mood to buy, and Sprint has already said they aren't interested. They have so much spectrum, they need to focus on small cells and deployment. So that left TMUS, regional carriers, and maybe WISPs? They just don't have the big money to drive up the prices like the AWS auctions.

 

AWS was all about urban and suburban capacity. 600Mhz is actually terrible for that because it propagates too well and the antennas are so large it makes doing MIMO extremely difficult. Doing MIMO greater than 2x2 on Sub 1Ghz frequencies would require very bulky and heavy gear.

[Trip]

Ho hum.

 

http://www.tvnewscheck.com/article/98154/fcc-unveils-postauction-repack-plans

 

http://www.tvtechnology.com/news/0002/fcc-proposes-phased-repack/279539

 

http://www.broadcastingcable.com/news/washington/fcc-unveils-phased-post-spectrum-auction-repack-plan/160032

 

https://apps.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DA-16-1095A1.doc  (The PDF has rendering issues; I've already notified the right people.)

 

- Trip