Official Tmobile-Sprint merger discussion thread

[tyroned3222]

I wasn't referring to you. I was talking about Moffett.

Ya he has been wrong a lot, but in his position it's all opinion and speculation not to many facts ... just like earlier he's giving the deal 40% chance to go thru .. that's an opinion .. just like me and you can say 20 or 30 %

 

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[NYC126]

Tmobile has 30 billion in debt now due to the acquisitions of 600mhz and 700mhz spectrum over the last 3 years however investors and Wall Street don't care because the company is profitable and it has the capacity to pay its bills. Also, the company is adding more postpaid customers than the other three combined every quarter.

What Marcelo did after getting appointed as CEO of Sprint in 2014 spend billions on cut and half promotions instead of investing in their core product which is the network. Then after burning a few billion Softbank engaged in talks with Tmobile about merging and the DOJ shot it down.

I just wonder what is Son and Softbank are trying to do here because at the end of the day the Germans want the combined company for themselves. Deutsche Telekom wants Sprint customer base and the 204mhz of the spectrum but doesn't want any part of the 36 billion debt that Sprint is carrying. Had Sprint would be investing around 4.5 billion on CAPEX for the last 4 years they would have a nationwide good network and would have leverage on any M&A discussions. 

[tyroned3222]

Tmobile has 30 billion in debt now due to the acquisitions of 600mhz and 700mhz spectrum over the last 3 years however investors and Wall Street don't care because the company is profitable and it has the capacity to pay its bills. Also, the company is adding more postpaid customers than the other three combined every quarter.

What Marcelo did after getting appointed as CEO of Sprint in 2014 spend billions on cut and half promotions instead of investing in their core product which is the network. Then after burning a few billion Softbank engaged in talks with Tmobile about merging and the DOJ shot it down.

I just wonder what is Son and Softbank are trying to do here because at the end of the day the Germans want the combined company for themselves. Deutsche Telekom wants Sprint customer base and the 204mhz of the spectrum but doesn't want any part of the 36 billion debt that Sprint is carrying. Had Sprint would be investing around 4.5 billion on CAPEX for the last 4 years they would have a nationwide good network and would have leverage on any M&A discussions. 

Just one more thing to add ... TMO debt also doesn't exceed their value .. and this should be the last post of this thread . This sums it all up

In other words Masa is in no position to make any demads or offerings really .. he would be the one to sit back and listen in that case

 

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[Mr.Nuke]

10 minutes ago, tyroned3222 said:

Just one more thing to add ... TMO debt also doesn't exceed their value .. and this should be the last post of this thread . This sums it all up

That isn't for you to decide...

[greenbastard]

4 hours ago, Mr.Nuke said:

That isn't for you to decide...

 

8 hours ago, SprintNYC said:

I just wonder what is Son and Softbank are trying to do here because at the end of the day the Germans want the combined company for themselves. 

I'm guessing that both parties weren't too far off in ownership negotiations. If they were, then I doubt SoftBank and DT would be back to the table this soon.

Most of the work to determine the new company structure and how both networks would be integrated has been done. All they have to do is figure out the ownership ratio. 

[tyroned3222]

I'm guessing that both parties weren't too far off in ownership negotiations. If they were, then I doubt SoftBank and DT would be back to the table this soon.
Most of the work to determine the new company structure and how both networks would be integrated has been done. All they have to do is figure out the ownership ratio. 

The domestic wireless providers are in no better position to complete a merger this time around.

T-Mobile is unlikely to offer any better deal than last time when Sprint was trading around $6 before the merger talks ended.

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[ase500]

The domestic wireless providers are in no better position to complete a merger this time around.

 

T-Mobile is unlikely to offer any better deal than last time when Sprint was trading around $6 before the merger talks ended.

 

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Actually, Softbank may very well be in a much better position.

 

T-Mobile started a clock ticking on 5G. If you really read their statement you and read between the lines, their 5G is going to be very much like their "4G" was before the started deployment of LTE. It will at best be psuedo 5G.

 

They will use "hotspots" for millimetre-wave. This means that they know none of the spectrum they currently have will really support both speed and capacity for 5G Mobile. Yes I know Sprint is the only one that has said their 5G will be mobile. There is a reason for this. However, the general public's association of anything G with mobile is a huge issue.

 

People will not take kindly to getting told that they will only get 5G in Fixed wireless or within X feet from a tower. This is why Sprint has a distinct advantage now.

 

Band 41 is becoming more valuable by the moment and the synergies of the merger are decreasing at the same rate.

 

Son wants control or at least the ability to buy control of the combined company. Calling off talks last time may have been strategic to push for a better position.

 

I have a feeling that he was offered non-voting stock, something that would have shut him out of ever controlling the company. That simple change maybe enough. If his shares and the market shares equal more than 50.1 percent and his shares are voting, he could buy control.

 

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[NYC126]

6 hours ago, ase500 said:

Actually, Softbank may very well be in a much better position.

 

T-Mobile started a clock ticking on 5G. If you really read their statement you and read between the lines, their 5G is going to be very much like their "4G" was before the started deployment of LTE. It will at best be psuedo 5G.

 

They will use "hotspots" for millimetre-wave. This means that they know none of the spectrum they currently have will really support both speed and capacity for 5G Mobile. Yes I know Sprint is the only one that has said their 5G will be mobile. There is a reason for this. However, the general public's association of anything G with mobile is a huge issue.

 

People will not take kindly to getting told that they will only get 5G in Fixed wireless or within X feet from a tower. This is why Sprint has a distinct advantage now.

 

Band 41 is becoming more valuable by the moment and the synergies of the merger are decreasing at the same rate.

 

Son wants control or at least the ability to buy control of the combined company. Calling off talks last time may have been strategic to push for a better position.

 

I have a feeling that he was offered non-voting stock, something that would have shut him out of ever controlling the company. That simple change maybe enough. If his shares and the market shares equal more than 50.1 percent and his shares are voting, he could buy control.

 

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And this is why I would refuse a merger now. Sprint doesn't need Tmobile but CAPEX. With 5G approaching and all the small regional carriers like US cellular lacking 5G spectrum, they will be forced to sell once and for all.

[ase500]

And this is why I would refuse a merger now. Sprint doesn't need Tmobile but CAPEX. With 5G approaching and all the small regional carriers like US cellular lacking 5G spectrum, they will be forced to sell once and for all.

Like I have said before, I personally am not a huge fan of the merger. With that said at this point in time there are roughly 30 billion dollars in synergistic savings. As well as the Scale of of customers. At current predictions a combined company would leapfrog AT&T and be within spitting distance of Verizon.

 

We have to remember that much of that 30 billion comes at the expense of American jobs as well. That is a much bigger issue for me than the competition argument.

 

I don't think for a minute that three is really going to be less competitive. Perhaps it may even increase competition as three good sized companies can beat each other up a bit better than two smaller ones can beat up on two bigger ones.

 

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[tybo31316]

 
I don't think for a minute that three is really going to be less competitive. Perhaps it may even increase competition as three good sized companies can beat each other up a bit better than two smaller ones can beat up on two bigger ones.
 
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I think they would just increase their prices and stay within a couple dollars of each other.

[ase500]

I think they would just increase their prices and stay within a couple dollars of each other.

That's a rather simplistic view. It ignores much of the market pressures on each. Fewer doesn't change the external market forces.

They still need to maintain their networks, pay down debts, invest in upgrades, and produce profits for investors. These pressures are the ones that drive companies to compete. Failure to compete for customers would also drive outside businesses to attempt to enter the market (think dish network). The reality of the situation is that current market pressures may force one of them out of business anyway.

Unless DT is willing to continue to write off T-Mobile's debt my bet would be that ultimately T-Mobile would be the one to go belly up. They have been growing, but they lack the resources to move into 5G territory. I bet without this merger they may end up a target of Dish. Sprint will be in a better position(assuming they invest capex as planned).

Money is only one of the resources needed to succeed. Many companies that have been well capitalized and even had plenty of customers only to end up bankrupt due to the lack of a needed resource to maintain. T-mobile's arc and lack of resources suggest moving forward it would be difficult for them to maintain.

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[tyroned3222]

That's a rather simplistic view. It ignores much of the market pressures on each. Fewer doesn't change the external market forces.

 

They still need to maintain their networks, pay down debts, invest in upgrades, and produce profits for investors. These pressures are the ones that drive companies to compete. Failure to compete for customers would also drive outside businesses to attempt to enter the market (think dish network). The reality of the situation is that current market pressures may force one of them out of business anyway.

 

Unless DT is willing to continue to write off T-Mobile's debt my bet would be that ultimately T-Mobile would be the one to go belly up. They have been growing, but they lack the resources to move into 5G territory. I bet without this merger they may end up a target of Dish. Sprint will be in a better position(assuming they invest capex as planned).

 

Money is only one of the resources needed to succeed. Many companies that have been well capitalized and even had plenty of customers only to end up bankrupt due to the lack of a needed resource to maintain. T-mobile's arc and lack of resources suggest moving forward it would be difficult for them to maintain.

 

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So, sprint has a YOY operating loss for the last decade.. bearly started making a profit (peanutes).. is increasing investment on the network with no large customer gain nor profit in the near future .. and there in a better position for 5G ?? TMO is paying all the bills making profits and are growing more then all 3 other carriers combined .. with profits coming in it will be easier for TMO to pull out a loan for the upcoming high band auction and make a solid bid.. and continue growing like they have been.. with another 614 thousand customers predicted for their Q1 report coming soon ..

TMO is good there making profit

Softbank will have to answer to shareholders if not they will file suite

 

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[RedSpark]

This is pretty sleazy on the part of T-Mobile, and the FCC called them on it:

https://www.macrumors.com/2018/04/16/tmobile-fine-rural-areas-fake-ring-tones/

Falsifying ringtones? That’s a whole new level of shady, and Legere had to know.

I for one don’t want this merger to happen...

[Arysyn]

3 hours ago, RedSpark said:

This is pretty sleazy on the part of T-Mobile, and the FCC called them on it:

https://www.macrumors.com/2018/04/16/tmobile-fine-rural-areas-fake-ring-tones/

Falsifying ringtones? That’s a whole new level of shady, and Legere had to know.

I for one don’t want this merger to happen...

Hey RedSpark,

Reading your posts for a long time here, of course, and I know you genuinely want Sprint to succeed on its own with densification and deployment. I do too, but my faith in Softbank is completely gone. Since Softbank is in charge, I just cannot have any faith Sprint will do what we know it could do with the proper funding. Therefore try to see it from the perspective of what actually is going to get Sprint to do what we know will help it.

T-Mobile will get band 41 on all of its towers, which even though its been revealed T-Mobile plans on scrapping alot of the Sprint sites, perhaps they are the older sites not as updated, Clear sites, GMO sites, etc. They'll certainly keep the necessary sites that add both new coverage and densified coverage. Along with that, there will be plenty of spectrum added to Sprint customers' access, same with adding spectrum to T-Mobile customers' access.

Network-wise, its a big win, and we know T-Mobile will do it, versus what we are hoping Softbank will do after how long has it been we've been waiting on this for?  We know the money exists for a major turnaround at Sprint, which Softbank continues to put into other non-Sprint related projects, while Masa seems more intent waiting for the big payout on a major merger deal. He doesn't seem to really care about Sprint itself. After all, when Softbank bought Sprint, back then they were all talk about this huge investment into Sprint to merge it into this big dream Softbank empire. Now its, "Lets try selling Sprint again for the third time around to T-Mobile since no one else wants to buy this company we couldn't give a crap about".

I really hate to say that, but its the reality of the situation now. Before Softbank got involved, Sprint really was working on a multi-level growth strategy headed by Dan Hesse, which unfortunately wasn't completely supported by its then board of directors. Now that board basically is Softbank in its position doing relatively little. The Sprint management that answers to Softbank are trying the best they can, which is why I'm not faulting the actual Sprint company, but rather Softbank. However, if its between business as usual with Softbank, or massive growth with T-Mobile, then by all means Magenta!

[RedSpark]

Consolidating to 3 Major Carriers is a bad idea in my opinion.

I do agree that Softbank has been depriving Sprint of funds in favor of other projects. Perhaps that’s Masa’s way of forcing Marcelo to get rid of the bloat that has dogged Sprint for years... and honestly, if you look at the cost savings that Sprint is achieving now, it’s unbelievable. Literally Billions of dollars of savings. All of this money was wasted for years and didn’t go into the network.

Sprint has a chance to stand apart with a 5G Network based on 2.5 GHz. I’d like see them succeed on their own. I believe it can happen, but we’ll know soon either way.

T-Mobile might call itself the uncarrier, but it may become the recarrier after merging with Sprint, if it hasn’t already in some respects.

[Paynefanbro]

I don't know if anyone got around to reading this on FierceWireless but the gist of it is that analysts are divided whether SoftBank did go back to DT regarding the merger.

On one hand you have analysts that think that SoftBank may be more willing to cede control in order to get a deal done before the upcoming spectrum auctions in November and also because if they wait, they may face more regulatory scrutiny in the future. They also point to recent statements that SoftBank may want to maintain 20-30% stakes in key industries around the globe which is smaller and less risky.

On the other hand, some analysts say that this doesn't add up to them. They don't think there is any way that Sprint would enter into 2 tower deals and a fiber deal with Zayo (speculative since neither company is commenting) and raise $5 Billion while SoftBank raises $10 Billion with Alibaba as collateral, then turn around a sell and agree to give up control.

Both sides have pretty convincing arguments that aren't simply about who is in a worse position or has less money.

https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/did-softbank-s-ceo-restart-sprint-t-mobile-merger-talks-analysts-are-divided

[NYC126]

For those that think that T-mobile going into the fall and be successful in the high band auction, they are delusional. The fact of the matter is the reason why they were successful in the 600mhz was due to Verizon and T sitting out something that will not happen with the next auctions. Also, Verizon is telling phone manufacturers to put the 3.5ghz radios in their products by year end which tell me Verizon will go after the 3.5ghz band with a vengeance. 

 

There are only 150 MHz in the 3.5ghz, cable companies, Verizon, AT&T, and Google want a piece of it. These companies that I mentioned have deep pockets and Tmobile will just be bringing a knife into a gun fight. Sprint should be deploying the massive MIMO radios everywhere while its competitors are busy with high band auctions. 

[greenbastard]

10 hours ago, SprintNYC said:

For those that think that T-mobile going into the fall and be successful in the high band auction, they are delusional. The fact of the matter is the reason why they were successful in the 600mhz was due to Verizon and T sitting out something that will not happen with the next auctions. Also, Verizon is telling phone manufacturers to put the 3.5ghz radios in their products by year end which tell me Verizon will go after the 3.5ghz band with a vengeance. 

The problem with this thought is that you're assuming the FCC won't open 3.7-4.2 Ghz for 5G. 

Everyone is overthinking this. T-Mobile and Sprint both want a merger. Less competition and reducing 5G costs are the goals here.

[bigsnake49]

12 hours ago, greenbastard said:

The problem with this thought is that you're assuming the FCC won't open 3.7-4.2 Ghz for 5G. 

Everyone is overthinking this. T-Mobile and Sprint both want a merger. Less competition and reducing 5G costs are the goals here.

Between CBRS and 3.7-4.2GHz that's 650MHz that will be coming available. Reducing yet another deployment's cost should be the primary goal here. It's not reduction in competition necessarily just unreasonable offers to switch that are the problem, although I have not seen many of those lately. 

[Terrell352]

On 4/17/2018 at 1:21 PM, SprintNYC said:

For those that think that T-mobile going into the fall and be successful in the high band auction, they are delusional. The fact of the matter is the reason why they were successful in the 600mhz was due to Verizon and T sitting out something that will not happen with the next auctions. Also, Verizon is telling phone manufacturers to put the 3.5ghz radios in their products by year end which tell me Verizon will go after the 3.5ghz band with a vengeance. 

 

There are only 150 MHz in the 3.5ghz, cable companies, Verizon, AT&T, and Google want a piece of it. These companies that I mentioned have deep pockets and Tmobile will just be bringing a knife into a gun fight. Sprint should be deploying the massive MIMO radios everywhere while its competitors are busy with high band auctions. 

That's if Sprint follows through with the plan. I remember everyone saying that Sprint would be done with 2.5ghz before T-mobile even started deploying 600mhz. T-Mobile already has deployed hundreds of sites basically 2 years in advance. That's how you do it. Not wait 5 years after you get spectrum to decide now you want it nationwide like Sprint did. Sprint is simply to slow with the upgrades and I don't think that's up for debate. Point is I think from a network side of things a merged carrier will make things happen much faster. Rebranding or not. They did it with metro and they can do it with Sprint.

[Rawvega]

Alrighty then...

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[RedSpark]

Here’s an interesting take:

The DoJ’s corruption investigation of Verizon and AT&T could save us from a Sprint-T-Mobile merger

[utiz4321]

15 minutes ago, RedSpark said:

Here’s an interesting take:

The DoJ’s corruption investigation of Verizon and AT&T could save us from a Sprint-T-Mobile merger

Save us from having a third company with the scale, money and spectrum to build an insanely awesome 5g network? Let the DOJ save you from it, let me have it. 

[RedSpark]

39 minutes ago, utiz4321 said:

Save us from having a third company with the scale, money and spectrum to build an insanely awesome 5g network? Let the DOJ save you from it, let me have it. 

Remember how AT&T was willing to spend $39 Billion to acquire T-Mobile?

https://techcrunch.com/2011/08/12/leaked-fcc-doc-reveals-details-of-atts-strategy-for-t-mobile-deal/

AT&T said it needed T-Mobile to increase LTE network coverage from 80% to 97% of the population, and it was willing to spend $39 Billion to acquire it. Of course, we now know that AT&T didn’t need T-Mobile to accomplish that. It had to arrive at 97% simply to keep up with Verizon... and this is aside from DirecTV and other things that it’s done since to be competitive.

http://www.dslreports.com/shownews/Leaked-ATT-Letter-Demolishes-Case-For-TMobile-Merger-115652

Not only that, the leaked material showed the cost stated by AT&T to expand its LTE coverage from 80% to 97%: $3.8 billion.

That’s ~1/10 the amount. So why do you think AT&T wanted to acquire T-Mobile?

[utiz4321]

10 minutes ago, RedSpark said:

Remember how AT&T was willing to spend $39 Billion to acquire T-Mobile?

https://techcrunch.com/2011/08/12/leaked-fcc-doc-reveals-details-of-atts-strategy-for-t-mobile-deal/

AT&T said it needed T-Mobile to increase LTE network coverage from 80% to 97% of the population, and it was willing to spend $39 Billion to acquire it. Of course, we now know that AT&T didn’t need T-Mobile to accomplish that. It had to arrive at 97% simply to keep up with Verizon... and this is aside from DirecTV and other things that it’s done since to be competitive.

http://www.dslreports.com/shownews/Leaked-ATT-Letter-Demolishes-Case-For-TMobile-Merger-115652

Not only that, the leaked material showed the cost stated by AT&T to expand its LTE coverage from 80% to 97%: $3.8 billion.

That’s ~1/10 the amount. So why do you think AT&T wanted to acquire T-Mobile?

First, you are only looking at the cost side of ATT LTE roll out and not how long ATT thought it would take to get a return on their investment. 

Second, I was against AT&T buying Mobile and called the DOJ shooting it down.

 

Third, anyone that knows the spectrum holdings, balance sheets, the last five years of these companies history and their network performance compared to the big two can see the obvious benifits to the consumers. The benefit to the consumer was no where near as obvious with a ATT and tmobile merger. That is one of the main reason ATT hammered home the dual LTE expansion, it was the only comsumer benifit they could come up with.