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Q3 2014 Earnings (Predictions)


IamMrFamous07
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Almost one month from now Sprint will release its earnings reports for Q3 2014. I'm predicting a pretty big subscriber gain. One analyst predicted 260,000 (fiercewireless article) handset additions.

 

 

I'm predicting net add of 500,000 subs including tablets

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I know some people who switched to Sprint I never would of predicted. Ever. I think the iPhone launch is going to make sprint clear 300k this quarter and I am going a bold 600k next quarter, since Christmas is coming and a new generation of kids will need their data.

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Yeah just stopping the bleeding (i.e., NOT losing subscribers at all) would be a huge gain.  And so any gains in subs beyond that would be absolutely awesome.  But the vast majority of that quarter did not fall under the changes that Marcelo made.  The $60 unlimited plan for individuals is still very new and in its infancy and the $50 unlimited iphone plan is even more new and so the effect of both will only grow over time, beyond the reach of Q3.  So I expect Q4 to really be the point at which Sprint truly begins to pull away from the mess that, by that time, they will have decidedly left behind them. 

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I'm thinking between 100-200k adds. Which is a big turn around in itself.

Not having any losses is huge & 100-200k adds would be amazing. But pundits will continue to chug the haterade and deem Sprint hopelessly doomed. That's my prediction: no matter the number, it won't be enough for analysts.

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I think sprint is going to surprise us this time around. T-mobile, verizon, and att are going to be shocked that the all so dead sprint isn't so dead anymore. I wonder how many iPhone 6 switchers have noticed the significant difference in service and told their friends? I can't wait. I really am looking forward to this year. If I had any money, I would buy stock in sprint... Like now

 

 

Sent from my iPhone 6 on Crapatalk

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I think sprint is going to surprise us this time around. T-mobile, verizon, and att are going to be shocked that the all so dead sprint isn't so dead anymore. I wonder how many iPhone 6 switchers have noticed the significant difference in service and told their friends? I can't wait. I really am looking forward to this year. If I had any money, I would buy stock in sprint... Like now

Why do you have no money? :(

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I have 70 shares I bought at 7.75 a few months ago (so down like $100 so far [emoji25]). I kind of want to add to my position and maybe scoop up another 50 before they release Q3. If I'm feeling balsy when earnings come around I may go long with some options, buuut I need to do some further analysis first.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone 6 on the Now Network

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I'm going to be conservative and say that the fiscal 2Q'14 will have a range of -100K to 100K net additions for handsets. On tablets, I'll say around 150K to 250K net adds. Claure's entrance and changes to Sprint occurred at the tail end of the quarter, and the iPhone launched at the very end of the quarter. Undoubtedly, it will positively influence the results, but the iPhone launch is still only at the very end of the quarter. Next quarter may be much better, though.

 

I'm concerned about FCF. Sprint's FCF has been in the negative hundred millions for several quarters now, and that needs to be corrected. Even T-Mobile has been able to maintain positive FCF, despite all the pundits saying it couldn't possibly do that.

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My only question is: where are the net adds going to come from?

T-Mobile is reporting record sales (700k net postpaids in August alone)

VZW is saying they are 40% higher than last year's quarter (when they did almost 1 million net adds)

AT&T is claiming a strong quarter and boasting that they're "not the victim" in the quarter.

With a saturated wireless market, it sure seems somebody has to be a donor carrier to fuel that kind of growth on the other three. If the losses aren't coming from Sprint, who are they coming from?

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My only question is: where are the net adds going to come from?

T-Mobile is reporting record sales (700k net postpaids in August alone)

VZW is saying they are 40% higher than last year's quarter (when they did almost 1 million net adds)

AT&T is claiming a strong quarter and boasting that they're "not the victim" in the quarter.

With a saturated wireless market, it sure seems somebody has to be a donor carrier to fuel that kind of growth on the other three. If the losses aren't coming from Sprint, who are they coming from?

T-Mobile's growth likely slowed in September because of Sprint.

 

AT&T can claim whatever they want though. They're able to say that they aren't the victim simply because they know they won't co the worst, they know that Sprint will. But obviously they had to make a change in plans because they were being hurt by Sprint.

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My only question is: where are the net adds going to come from?

 

T-Mobile is reporting record sales (700k net postpaids in August alone)

VZW is saying they are 40% higher than last year's quarter (when they did almost 1 million net adds)

AT&T is claiming a strong quarter and boasting that they're "not the victim" in the quarter.

 

With a saturated wireless market, it sure seems somebody has to be a donor carrier to fuel that kind of growth on the other three. If the losses aren't coming from Sprint, who are they coming from?

 

Cricket?

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I know some people who switched to Sprint I never would of predicted. Ever. I think the iPhone launch is going to make sprint clear 300k this quarter and I am going a bold 600k next quarter, since Christmas is coming and a new generation of kids will need their data.

 

I know some people who switched to Sprint I never would of predicted. Ever. I think the iPhone launch is going to make sprint clear 300k this quarter and I am going a bold 600k next quarter, since Christmas is coming and a new generation of kids will need their data.

I agree. I predict 500k. The big question will be what company did all of these people leave?

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I believe if Sprint were to post anything north of 200K nets add's (not being masked by Tablet giveaways) they could possibly be pulling from all Carriers.

 

I'm sorry but the days of just solely resting marketing national Coverage maps and being able to charge people out the A$$, and still have them sign up in droves are over... We are living in an "Its Too Damn High" Society with everything from Rent, to Car Payments, Cable, Insurance, and YES CELL PHONE BILLS! 

 

People are tired of 300$ Cell Phone bills, even if  A / V have coverage in Cowtown, ID..... A/V are getting the message that they have to offer Value as well, they will not go as low as S and T  but they have to give people more than just Better Coverage talk.  TMO hit blitz hit at exactly the right time in America, people were yearning for this.. I know people who were Verzion loyalist in the early '00's but recently moved their family to TMO and havent't looked back again because they were tired of high cell phone bills. 

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I am going to vote for closer to 100K net sub adds and possibly lower (which would still be good!). I think the changes competitors make in reaction to Sprint's plans (such as AT&T's doubled data) will severely curb the potential moves from other carriers.

 

I also think Verizon will have a great Q3 while T-Mobile will continue to pull from Sprint and AT&T. AT&T will probably be the carrier who takes the biggest hits this quarter due to defections to T-Mobile and Sprint. I can't say I have met a single Verizon customer that even considers switching carriers.

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I am going to vote for closer to 100K net sub adds and possibly lower (which would still be good!). I think the changes competitors make in reaction to Sprint's plans (such as AT&T's doubled data) will severely curb the potential moves from other carriers.

 

I also think Verizon will have a great Q3 while T-Mobile will continue to pull from Sprint and AT&T. AT&T will probably be the carrier who takes the biggest hits this quarter due to defections to T-Mobile and Sprint. I can't say I have met a single Verizon customer that even considers switching carriers.

 

Be careful because a lot of Verizon's so called "Great" quarters recently have been from Tablet adds. Like Sprint, they've been using it to mask the truth.  I know many in NYC, at my job specifically that are tired of the wallet raping of Verizon, they have been bit by the TMO blitz bug, so far the 2 I know are still on the Fence, but really want to try TMO. 

 

I haven't seen them since the iP6 release, I will have to ask them if they've changed. 

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I'm sorry but the days of just solely resting marketing national Coverage maps and being able to charge people out the A$$, and still have them sign up in droves are over... We are living in an "Its Too Damn High" Society with everything from Rent, to Car Payments, Cable, Insurance, and YES CELL PHONE BILLS! 

 

People are tired of 300$ Cell Phone bills, even if  A / V have coverage in Cowtown, ID..... A/V are getting the message that they have to offer Value as well, they will not go as low as S and T  but they have to give people more than just Better Coverage talk.  TMO hit blitz hit at exactly the right time in America, people were yearning for this.. I know people who were Verzion loyalist in the early '00's but recently moved their family to TMO and havent't looked back again because they were tired of high cell phone bills. 

 

the-rent-is-too-damn-high_o_275404.jpg

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the-rent-is-too-damn-high_o_275404.jpg

Just who I was thinking of.... Amazing that one line still resonates so clearly today. Tells you the state America is in.

 

EDIT: Imagine if Sprint's network and Marketing were on point..... Boy we'd be experiencing a serious DOG FIGHT right now with the Big 4. I mean even more fierce than what we're seeing now.

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Be careful because a lot of Verizon's so called "Great" quarters recently have been from Tablet adds. Like Sprint, they've been using it to mask the truth.  I know many in NYC, at my job specifically that are tired of the wallet raping of Verizon, they have been bit by the TMO blitz bug, so far the 2 I know are still on the Fence, but really want to try TMO. 

 

I haven't seen them since the iP6 release, I will have to ask them if they've changed. 

I think their $60 2GB plan or whatever will do a LOT to keep current subs from totally leaving. They may downgrade service to the lower plans though. I think the promo is very smart with the free 1 GB per line or whatever. In fact right now you can get the 10 GB more everything plan for 2 lines for $130+phone cost. That is pretty good value on Verizon.

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I think their $60 2GB plan or whatever will do a LOT to keep current subs from totally leaving. They may downgrade service to the lower plans though. I think the promo is very smart with the free 1 GB per line or whatever. In fact right now you can get the 10 GB more everything plan for 2 lines for $130+phone cost. That is pretty good value on Verizon.

AFAIK, the $60 2GB(the contract plan) does not include the bonus GB; but is offered on the MORE everything plans(which also has a $60 plan, though if you want a device, you'll have to pay full retail or buy through EDGE).

 

I can definitely see VZW subscribers switching to the plan, though I do wonder how long Verizon will be willing to hold on to contract-based plans.

 

I wouldn't expect their subscriber base to consider Sprint for at least another year, by then it should be clear if Verizon is willing to complete with T-Mobile & Sprint full-heartedly in value(data tier or price).

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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