T-Mobile LTE & Network Discussion

[kg4icg]

Sprint's capex isn't 10-18 billion a year, where did you pull that number from?

[Conan Kudo]

Sprint's capex isn't 10-18 billion a year, where did you pull that number from?

Ack, no, it's $6 billion... Fixed.

[lou99/maximus1987]

Insofar as T-Mobile's capex levels, I personally expect that T-Mobile's capex levels will ease off in 2016 (if the 600MHz auction doesn't happen) or 2017 if the auction does happen. Once it completes its geographic expansion in 2016, the overwhelming majority of its capex spend is no longer necessary.

 

As for Sprint, its $10-18 billion $6 billion each year for capex with no return isn't sustainable either. Something has to give there too.

What's gonna "give"?

[dedub]

http://arstechnica.com/business/2015/01/t-mobile-owner-says-un-carrier-business-unsustainable-without-merger/

 

no surprises there

[Jaramie3]

Me personally, I am all for the merger if it benefits the customers obviously. I think the right people need to be in charge for it to work, but I don't see T-Mobile being able to stay a float without a merger.

[Conan Kudo]

What's gonna "give"?

Probably either Sprint will implode in bankruptcy or it'll cut costs (through capex reduction, layoffs, or both) to balance the budget.

[lou99/maximus1987]

Me personally, I am all for the merger if it benefits the customers obviously. I think the right people need to be in charge for it to work, but I don't see T-Mobile being able to stay a float without a merger.

It will not benefit the consumer. Since when has reduction in telecom ever benefitted consumers?

[Paynefanbro]

Probably either Sprint will implode in bankruptcy or it'll cut costs (through capex reduction, layoffs, or both) to balance the budget.

 

Aren't they already doing that?

[lou99/maximus1987]

Aren't they already doing that?

They're slowing down spark deployments even though the faster they get spark done, the faster they'll make money.

 

Is that supposed to make sense?

[Fraydog]

None of these mergers benefit the consumer, that's the point. Is it technically possible now, yes. That doesn't mean it is to be done.

[jamisonshaw125]

They're slowing down spark deployments even though the faster they get spark done, the faster they'll make money.

 

Is that supposed to make sense?

I could have swore I read that they're accelerating this everywhere now that the vendor issues are gone.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone 6 using Crapatalk

[Paynefanbro]

They're slowing down spark deployments even though the faster they get spark done, the faster they'll make money.

 

Is that supposed to make sense?

 

That's incorrect. As far as what we know, Spark deployment has been accelerated ever since Alcatel Lucent and NSN sorted out their equipment shortage issues.

[anthony.spina97]

That's incorrect. As far as what we know, Spark deployment has been accelerated ever since Alcatel Lucent and NSN sorted out their equipment shortage issues.

He's probably talking about when Sprint stated they were changing their focus on how they deploy Spark (in that they will move from deploying to every site, everywhere, to doing it to the sites that need it first and the rest of the sites afterward). In which case his statement is still incorrect, because they haven't slowed down deployment, they have just refocused how they're rolling it out.

 

-Anthony

[Fraydog]

Spark sites are surprising me still where they are showing. I swore I saw a Nokia RRU at a Carbondale, IL site. I couldn't get a photo, though, I was driving.

[lou99/maximus1987]

He's probably talking about when Sprint stated they were changing their focus on how they deploy Spark (in that they will move from deploying to every site, everywhere, to doing it to the sites that need it first and the rest of the sites afterward). In which case his statement is still incorrect, because they haven't slowed down deployment, they have just refocused how they're rolling it out.

 

-Anthony

I was talking about sprint saying CAPEX will be lowered for 2015 because they found savings. Even if they found savings, they should go full bore with spark. This semi proves they're throttling their deployment based on their financials.

[bigsnake49]

The DT CEO is just voicing what some of us are saying for a while now, that the current situation is not sustainable. This is is a high capex business. Witness the insane amounts for the AWS-3 auction. Sprint and T-Mobile need to finish their 4G networks. Believe it or not 5G is around the corner and strategic planners need to start thinking about it. No you cannot have low prices and adequate capex. No you cannot have low prices and great customer service.

[Fraydog]

The DT CEO is just voicing what some of us are saying for a while now, that the current situation is not sustainable. This is is a high capex business. Witness the insane amounts for the AWS-3 auction. Sprint and T-Mobile need to finish their 4G networks. Believe it or not 5G is around the corner and strategic planners need to start thinking about it. No you cannot have low prices and adequate capex. No you cannot have low prices and great customer service.

In some ways, you are right, but I'd only want a merger if no other way was available. Sprint is going to get hacked to shreds if a merger does come down. We already know that Johnny would be running any combined company and that it would be based likely either in Bellevue or Silicon Valley. You think Neville Ray would want to keep CDMA around? They'd MetroPCS all the Sprint side, maybe taking Spark and plugging it into their network, but that would be about all they would take.

 

That's not even the worst part, not even close when you consider what would happen with consumers.

[maxsilver]

The DT CEO is just voicing what some of us are saying for a while now, that the current situation is not sustainable

 

The problem is that there's little financial truth backing that opinion. "People saying that" doesn't make it true.

 

T-Mobile's just had their best year in recent history. They've gone from 7 million net yearly loss, to roughly break even (all while building an expensive LTE network, running large scale advertising campaigns, financing unprecedented levels of devices / ETF payouts, etc -- things they could easily cut back on, if they decided they wanted to show on-paper profit).

 

Don't take my word for it, their finances are public record :

https://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=TMUS&annual & https://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=TMUS

 

T-Mobile is fine, and unless something crazy happens, they can "sustainably" operate as-is for many years.

 

DT pushes the rumor that T-Mobile is "unsustainable" because they want someone to buy out their ownership at a premium price, and that premium is easiest to get if there is no competition in wireless (which is what a Sprint/T-Mobile merger guarantees).

 

Believing DT at face value about this, is like believing an umbrella salesman's weather forecast.

[anthony.spina97]

I was talking about sprint saying CAPEX will be lowered for 2015 because they found savings. Even if they found savings, they should go full bore with spark. This semi proves they're throttling their deployment based on their financials.

Actually, that semi-proves nothing. You are just assuming facts not in evidence. There has been no hint that shows that Spark deployment has slowed in anyway, shape, or form. They more than likely found ways to cut costs in the deployment of Spark, not by slowing down it's deployment. It wouldn't make any sense to slow down the Spark roll out.

 

-Anthony

[Conan Kudo]

The problem is that there's little financial truth backing that opinion. "People saying that" doesn't make it true.

 

T-Mobile's just had their best year in recent history. They've gone from 7 million net yearly loss, to roughly break even (all while building an expensive LTE network, running large scale advertising campaigns, financing unprecedented levels of devices / ETF payouts, etc -- things they could easily cut back on, if they decided they wanted to show on-paper profit).

 

Don't take my word for it, their finances are public record :

https://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=TMUS&annual & https://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=TMUS

 

T-Mobile is fine, and unless something crazy happens, they can "sustainably" operate as-is for many years.

 

DT pushes the rumor that T-Mobile is "unsustainable" because they want someone to buy out their ownership at a premium price, and that premium is easiest to get if there is no competition in wireless (which is what a Sprint/T-Mobile merger guarantees).

 

Believing DT at face value about this, is like believing an umbrella salesman's weather forecast.

I'm just glad someone other than myself noticed it. T-Mobile will firmly push into the "profitable" region with the MetroPCS decommissioning completed this year, since redundant core network for CDMA and the MetroPCS radio access network systems would be removed and costs associated with O&M for those systems will be removed from the books going forward.

 

On top of that, once the buildout to cover 300M POPs and support the AWS/PCS licenses T-Mobile has throughout the country with no underlying network is complete and T-Mobile has sufficiently acquired 600MHz and 700MHz licenses, T-Mobile can start banking cash for 600MHz deployment in 2022 (since 600MHz can't even be used until 39 months after the auction concludes and the licenses are issued).

[lou99/maximus1987]

I'm just glad someone other than myself noticed it. T-Mobile will firmly push into the "profitable" region with the MetroPCS decommissioning completed this year, since redundant core network for CDMA and the MetroPCS radio access network systems would be removed and costs associated with O&M for those systems will be removed from the books going forward.

 

On top of that, once the buildout to cover 300M POPs and support the AWS/PCS licenses T-Mobile has throughout the country with no underlying network is complete and T-Mobile has sufficiently acquired 600MHz and 700MHz licenses, T-Mobile can start banking cash for 600MHz deployment in 2022 (since 600MHz can't even be used until 39 months after the auction concludes and the licenses are issued).

That's a max not a min so could be sooner.

[Fraydog]

How much extra in CapEx is the expansion in T-Mobile service going to cost? I presume additional towers are going to have to be built along with more sites on existing towers in rural areas, along with adding more sites in areas that are native where coverage is subpar.

[Conan Kudo]

How much extra in CapEx is the expansion in T-Mobile service going to cost? I presume additional towers are going to have to be built along with more sites on existing towers in rural areas, along with adding more sites in areas that are native where coverage is subpar.

No extra money needed. The amount of money allocated this year is the same amount used to upgrade 50K existing sites last year, which should be enough to upgrade the remaining 10K sites and construct all the remaining sites needed. The major cost is when a new site has to be built from scratch, and even then, the cost of that isn't that much more from putting equipment on an existing location or upgrading an existing site. Main issue is red tape and timing, which is likely being worked on as we speak.

[lou99/maximus1987]

Anyone have insight into the CDMA shutdown dates? What's left?

NYC, Michigan, ?

[Fraydog]

No extra money needed. The amount of money allocated this year is the same amount used to upgrade 50K existing sites last year, which should be enough to upgrade the remaining 10K sites and construct all the remaining sites needed.

That makes sense, given that the construction of new sites (especially new towers) is a very capital intense activity.