600 MHz auction results posted and transition schedule

[Yuhfhrh]

Never?  Poppycock.  Maybe, maybe not.

 

VZW's PCS holdings are the least important of its entire spectrum portfolio.  Across most markets, VZW has around 10 MHz (5 MHz FDD) of PCS.  Not that much.

 

Mostly in exceptional markets -- New York, Dallas, Miami, etc. -- where it holds no Cellular spectrum or has accumulated significant PCS capacity spectrum does VZW have great swaths of contiguous PCS spectrum that are truly valuable for LTE.

 

AJ

 

Didn't realize Verizon had such little, I thought they had ~20MHz.

[bigsnake49]

It will be a nice swap of spectrum with Verizon: 2.5GHz for 1900MHz.

Edited August 7, 2015 by bigsnake49

[Arysyn]

It will be a nice swap of spectrum with Verizon: 2.5GHz for 1900MHz.

I definitely do not like the idea of Sprint selling any of its band 41 for extra PCS. However, if Sprint were to get enough 600mhz at the spectrum auction, they could eventually sell 800mhz for extra PCS.

 

Masa Son really seems intent on having an amazing band 41 network here in the U.S., which of course I support. They need all of the band 41 spectrum they have for future proofing. Now, while 800mhz spectrum is very important lowband spectrum and the very last spectrum they'd ever want to sell, they could use it for more PCS, if they end up with plenty of 600mhz spectrum, as I'm hoping they do.

[Yuhfhrh]

I definitely do not like the idea of Sprint selling any of its band 41 for extra PCS. However, if Sprint were to get enough 600mhz at the spectrum auction, they could eventually sell 800mhz for extra PCS.

 

Masa Son really seems intent on having an amazing band 41 network here in the U.S., which of course I support. They need all of the band 41 spectrum they have for future proofing. Now, while 800mhz spectrum is very important lowband spectrum and the very last spectrum they'd ever want to sell, they could use it for more PCS, if they end up with plenty of 600mhz spectrum, as I'm hoping they do.

 

800MHz has better propagation than PCS, so I don't know why they'd make a backwards trade like that. Not to mention that would throw all current triband phones under the bus.

[Arysyn]

800MHz has better propagation than PCS, so I don't know why they'd make a backwards trade like that. Not to mention that would throw all current triband phones under the bus.

I'm really not for the selling of 800mhz spectrum, as you're definitely right about it having better propagation than PCS. However, there is an advantage for Sprint to increase its PCS holdings, as long as it isn't a tradeoff on band 41. Although, I'd never support the idea of getting more PCS from trading off 800mhz spectrum, unless there were enough low band spectrum to replace 800mhz spectrum, which the 600mhz spectrum would do fine.

 

If Sprint got at least 10x10 of the 600mhz spectrum nationwide, that would be more low band spectrum than they already have of 800mhz spectrum. That amount in itself, is if Sprint/Softbank wanted to work fairly with T-Mobile on it by not taking all of the 30mhz in reserves, leaving T-Mobile to face possibly paying more for that spectrum in the unreserved portion.

 

However, I'm hoping Sprint/Softbank goes big with this auction. If they were to get 15x15 of the 600mhz, or possibly even more, I'd like to see Sprint either sell some of the extra 600mhz spectrum (the part beyond the 15x15) to possibly swap for a wider PCS block of spectrum than the current 5x5 chunks of it I'm not a big fan of, or at least sell some remaining 600mhz beyond 15x15 for a profit to be used in extra funding for NGN.

 

Ultimately though, my hopes for Sprint beyond their excellent band 41 spectrum I don't want them to sell any bit of, is for them to have both 15x15 of the 600mhz spectrum, and do whatever it takes to make their PCS spectrum work as if it were a wider band of spectrum matching the functionality of 15x15.

[ericdabbs]

I'm really not for the selling of 800mhz spectrum, as you're definitely right about it having better propagation than PCS. However, there is an advantage for Sprint to increase its PCS holdings, as long as it isn't a tradeoff on band 41. Although, I'd never support the idea of getting more PCS from trading off 800mhz spectrum, unless there were enough low band spectrum to replace 800mhz spectrum, which the 600mhz spectrum would do fine.

 

If Sprint got at least 10x10 of the 600mhz spectrum nationwide, that would be more low band spectrum than they already have of 800mhz spectrum. That amount in itself, is if Sprint/Softbank wanted to work fairly with T-Mobile on it by not taking all of the 30mhz in reserves, leaving T-Mobile to face possibly paying more for that spectrum in the unreserved portion.

 

However, I'm hoping Sprint/Softbank goes big with this auction. If they were to get 15x15 of the 600mhz, or possibly even more, I'd like to see Sprint either sell some of the extra 600mhz spectrum (the part beyond the 15x15) to possibly swap for a wider PCS block of spectrum than the current 5x5 chunks of it I'm not a big fan of, or at least sell some remaining 600mhz beyond 15x15 for a profit to be used in extra funding for NGN.

 

Ultimately though, my hopes for Sprint beyond their excellent band 41 spectrum I don't want them to sell any bit of, is for them to have both 15x15 of the 600mhz spectrum, and do whatever it takes to make their PCS spectrum work as if it were a wider band of spectrum matching the functionality of 15x15.

 

I highly doubt that Sprint will get more than a 10x10 block of 600 MHz spectrum especially if there is not much 600 MHz available.  Of course I would welcome a 15x15 contiguous block of 600 MHz spectrum.  Tmobile will be real aggressive in the 600 MHz auction so I expect them to be a major player to compete with Sprint for the 30 MHz of reserve spectrum and I don't buy for a second that AT&T and Verizon will not participate or care that much about the 600 MHz block.  

 

I am not at all in favor of swapping low band spectrum for high band spectrum.  What Sprint needs to do instead of trying to obtain more PCS spectrum is actually to do PCS spectrum swaps that align itself next to the G-block so it can have contiguous blocks of PCS spectrum.  None of the other big 3 carriers have any interest in getting rid of all of their PCS spectrum so its useless to wish for that.  I do like what Tmobile does periodically with Verizon and AT&T by doing AWS/PCS spectrum swaps to align itself to have contiguous blocks of spectrum.

[WiWavelength]

What Sprint needs to do instead of trying to obtain more PCS spectrum is actually to do PCS spectrum swaps that align itself next to the G-block so it can have contiguous blocks of PCS spectrum.

 

I doubt that will happen much -- for several reasons.

 

The PCS C block is highly fragmented.  It started as the PCS C 30 MHz (15 MHz FDD) block, but as it was aimed at small businesses, many ended up with licenses that they could not afford.  So, in an amnesty program, many licensees returned some/all of their spectrum to the FCC.  When the PCS C block was resold, it was as the PCS C1/2 15 MHz (7.5 MHz FDD) blocks or PCS C3/4/5 10 MHz (5 MHz FDD) blocks.

 

The only spectrum contiguous to the PCS G block, then, would be the PCS C1 or C5 blocks.  Sprint would have to find willing trading partners specific to those blocks.  Additionally, the combination of the PCS C1 + PCS G block would result in an awkward amount of contiguous spectrum:  25 MHz (12.5 MHz FDD).  I suppose, though, the excess could be used for a couple of CDMA2000 carriers.

 

But the real sticking point is why other operators should swap PCS spectrum places with Sprint.  The other primary PCS spectrum holders would be AT&T, T-Mobile, and VZW -- in that order.  Unless Sprint can offer trades mutually beneficial to them, they are not going to be altruistic and help Sprint.  And any reciprocal swaps likely would entail Sprint disaggregating its PCS A/B 30 MHz (15 MHz FDD) block licenses.  Thus, the LTE future of those licenses would be cut down from 15 MHz FDD to 5-10 MHz FDD after CDMA2000 shutdown.  Sprint has to think about that future, too.

 

In the end, as the PCS G block is mostly isolated, I would not be surprised if Sprint is not a buyer but a seller.  A few years from now, once band 26 rebanding issues are sorted out everywhere, additional band 25 carriers are deployed in all markets, and band 41 is more mature, I would not be shocked to see Sprint sell off the PCS G block to Dish -- or whatever operator actually ends up deploying the adjacent PCS/AWS-2 H block.

 

AJ

[Arysyn]

I doubt that will happen much -- for several reasons.

 

The PCS C block is highly fragmented. It started as the PCS C 30 MHz (15 MHz FDD) block, but as it was aimed at small businesses, many ended up with licenses that they could not afford. So, in an amnesty program, many licensees returned some/all of their spectrum to the FCC. When the PCS C block was resold, it was as the PCS C1/2 15 MHz (7.5 MHz FDD) blocks or PCS C3/4/5 10 MHz (5 MHz FDD) blocks.

 

The only spectrum contiguous to the PCS G block, then, would be the PCS C1 or C5 blocks. Sprint would have to find willing trading partners specific to those blocks. Additionally, the combination of the PCS C1 + PCS G block would result in an awkward amount of contiguous spectrum: 25 MHz (12.5 MHz FDD). I suppose, though, the excess could be used for a couple of CDMA2000 carriers.

 

But the real sticking point is why other operators should swap PCS spectrum places with Sprint. The other primary PCS spectrum holders would be AT&T, T-Mobile, and VZW -- in that order. Unless Sprint can offer trades mutually beneficial to them, they are not going to be altruistic and help Sprint. And any reciprocal swaps likely would entail Sprint disaggregating its PCS A/B 30 MHz (15 MHz FDD) block licenses. Thus, the LTE future of those licenses would be cut down from 15 MHz FDD to 5-10 MHz FDD after CDMA2000 shutdown. Sprint has to think about that future, too.

 

In the end, as the PCS G block is mostly isolated, I would not be surprised if Sprint is not a buyer but a seller. A few years from now, once band 26 rebanding issues are sorted out everywhere, additional band 25 carriers are deployed in all markets, and band 41 is more mature, I would not be shocked to see Sprint sell off the PCS G block to Dish -- or whatever operator actually ends up deploying the adjacent PCS/AWS-2 H block.

 

AJ

I understand why AJ's technical threads are well liked and his technical advice and opinions well respected. He among some others on the site would make better technical editors than many of those on more mainstream tech-related sites. Although I like S4GRU just the way it is, I have the opinion that this site, along with T4GRU, if they were combined into one website which covered all the carriers with a forum better than HowardForums and a news section with articles just like on the Wall here that would compete with the likes of Verge, Engadget, Fierce, Ars, etc. then that would be really awesome! Just so the important membership areas are still there, with the understanding of not necessarily being able to give certain specific details, due to legal complaints from carriers.

 

Also understandably is that there very well could be more trolls around, but I believe the staff could control that, while still keeping the same atmosphere as here. Plus, forum sectioning done well could easily keep carriers topics separated and less carrier discussion carryovers than what occurs on HowardForums, which in my opinion, HoFo just is nothing at all like I remember it from back in 2005-2006. I believe the S4GRU team could very easily produce a much better carrier discussion and semi-news site than HoFo is nowadays.

 

Anyways, I apologize for going off topic a bit here, but I wanted to express how AJ and some others have helped me learn some of the technical details of wireless tech. The latest being on the topic of something I've been discussing quite a bit here lately, which is Sprint's PCS spectrum. I've received some criticism for mentioning Sprint selling it, which I never meant anything negative by it. It's just that I believe if Sprint had to sell any of their spectrum for raising money for reasons such as, for network densification, or for getting additional low band spectrum to the range of at least 15x15 of either 600mhz or better still, more 800mhz for a total of 15x15, for those reasons I'd prefer that the first choice of spectrum they'd sell is the PCS band.

 

I realize I'm writing quite a bit here, so there is a few other things regarding this I'll mention later. However, I'll briefly express this for now, then I'll elaborate more later on. One of the reasons I like about Sprint and their massive amount of band 41 spectrum, is that Sprint seems well focused on densifying their network for proper band 41 coverage. If Sprint does this in a lot of areas as they have in Schaumburg, Illinois, for example, band 41 will cease any need for midband spectrum.

 

I also realize that Sprint's network won't be the same in every area as it is in Schaumburg, Illinois, for various reasons/issues. However, if Sprint is going to densify their network enough for PCS, I don't understand why Sprint wouldn't just densify it a bit more so that it could well enough provide for its much more spectrum-rich band 41, other than of course, financial reasons/cost savings. Yet in that case, Sprint would save a lot more in areas where it isn't practical densifying for band 41, skipping trying to densify for PCS, and just focus on spectrum-rich low band, if they focus on getting a lot more of it. They probably already have plenty of network density in many areas for low band spectrum alone. Although please remember, I'm not attacking the PCS that Sprint has. I'm only suggesting options how Sprint could sell it for, if thy chose to do so. Also as a reminder, I've written many times of my support for aggregating PCS with band 41.

 

Alright, I admit this is a very long post I've written. I may have been able to shorten it a bit, at least being more punctual, but I'm very tired right now and even dozed off a few times while typing this. Although, I felt this as an important post for me to write. Again, I'll have more here later, especially on the 600mhz auction. My apologies still on the length. I'll write better later today when I'm less tired ????☺

[mhammett]

I'm not gonna read 8 pages of a thread before posting this. I don't have that kind of time.

 

Here are some links that may be of interest to people following the 600 MHz auction.

http://www.auction600mhz.com/

https://spectrumbridge.com/tv-white-space/

http://www.carlsonwireless.com/tv-white-space/

https://www.google.com/get/spectrumdatabase/

 

[Arysyn]

Here is some news from TmoNews about the 600mhz auction :

 

http://www.tmonews.com/2015/10/fcc-releases-opening-bid-information-for-600mhz-spectrum-auction/

[uecker87]

Here is some news from TmoNews about the 600mhz auction :

 

http://www.tmonews.com/2015/10/fcc-releases-opening-bid-information-for-600mhz-spectrum-auction/

 

Ha...  I love my market.    You can tell USCC really made it so the big 4 can't get a ton of spectrum here.  (link to data located in article linked above)

 

Reserve-Eligible Service Providers

 

122 Madison, WI (where I work)

488,073 406 Sprint, T-Mobile, Verizon Wireless

 

253 Baraboo, WI (where I live)

216,417 47 AT&T, Sprint, T-Mobile, Verizon Wireless

 

So probably looking at AT&T and Verizon splitting the spectrum here in the Baraboo PEA...  Kind of surprised with the Baraboo one because Verizon has the Cellular (B?) block here, upper 700, PCS and a 10x10 AWS slice.

 

I understand Madison though - they don't have the Cellular license there and only have enough AWS for 10x10 too.

[Arysyn]

Since Sprint has said they won't be at the auction, and if that is going to be the case, I really hope T-Mobile will go for the full reserve, if all of it ends up being available. Based on the information on TmoNews, and T-Mobile claiming they could spend up to $10 billion, it seems to me they'll be able to afford at least a nationwide 10x10.

 

Although, I still think T-Mobile ought to get the full 15x15, expecially where I'm at in the Chicago market. It would help their spectrum situation here tremendously.

[WiWavelength]

Based on the information on TmoNews, and T-Mobile claiming they could spend up to $10 billion, it seems to me they'll be able to afford at least a nationwide 10x10.

 

No way.  Look at the prices from FCC Auction 97 for AWS-3 spectrum.  T-Mobile spending up to $10 billion will not get it nationwide 10 MHz FDD of 600 MHz spectrum.

 

AJ

[Arysyn]

No way. Look at the prices from FCC Auction 97 for AWS-3 spectrum. T-Mobile spending up to $10 billion will not get it nationwide 10 MHz FDD of 600 MHz spectrum.

 

AJ

Yes, based on the prices of the AWS-3 auction, T-Mobile won't get that. However with the reserve and a possibility that T-Mobile won't have any competition for that reserve, and of course if the broadcasters even decide to sell at the lower costs this auction might be at, I think it is possible.

 

Besides, alot of the commenters on TmoNews seem to think it is possible.

[WiWavelength]

Yes, based on the prices of the AWS-3 auction, T-Mobile won't get that. However with the reserve and a possibility that T-Mobile won't have any competition for that reserve, and of course if the broadcasters even decide to sell at the lower costs this auction might be at, I think it is possible.

 

Besides, alot of the commenters on TmoNews seem to think it is possible.

 

The TV broadcasters are not stupid.  They plus their engineers, financiers, and lawyers saw the MHz⋅POP prices for AWS-3 in FCC Auction 97.  They are not going to sell out for discounted prices on superior spectrum.  Meanwhile, many of the TmoNews commenters are stupid.  That much has been demonstrated repeatedly.

 

AJ

[Fraydog]

The TV broadcasters are not stupid.  They plus their engineers, financiers, and lawyers saw the MHz⋅POP prices for AWS-3 in FCC Auction 97.  They are not going to sell out for discounted prices on superior spectrum.  Meanwhile, many of the TmoNews commenters are stupid.  That much has been demonstrated repeatedly.

 

AJ

 

The models are still showing super inflated prices for 600 MHz though, even with Sprint and some of the rural carriers not involved. If we're looking for non-participation on the reverse auction, I don't see that. If we're looking for T-Mobile getting outbid in a lot of places, that could be possible. 

[WiWavelength]

The models are still showing super inflated prices for 600 MHz though, even with Sprint and some of the rural carriers not involved. If we're looking for non-participation on the reverse auction, I don't see that. If we're looking for T-Mobile getting outbid in a lot of places, that could be possible. 

 

My point is that -- if the auction actually happens and is successful -- up to $10 billion is not going to buy the national footprint that Arysyn or the TmoNews commenters want.  The AWS-3 prices should make that clear.

 

AJ

[Fraydog]

My point is that -- if the auction actually happens and is successful -- up to $10 billion is not going to buy the national footprint that Arysyn or the TmoNews commenters want.  The AWS-3 prices should make that clear.

 

AJ

 

On that I agree 100%. 

[Arysyn]

The TV broadcasters are not stupid. They plus their engineers, financiers, and lawyers saw the MHz⋅POP prices for AWS-3 in FCC Auction 97. They are not going to sell out for discounted prices on superior spectrum. Meanwhile, many of the TmoNews commenters are stupid. That much has been demonstrated repeatedly.

 

AJ

Well, this auction isn't such a big deal to me anyways. I was just pointing out something if the conditions were right for it, though there are so many different issues to it that it isn't really worth too much attention. I use to think it was a bad decision Sprint made by declining participation, but after hearing all of the different issues in this auction, I really can't blame Sprint.

 

T-Mobile really needs this spectrum though, and if does indeed turn out to sell for more than some on TmoNews think, then it is going to be disappointing for T-Mobile to limit the spending to $10 billion when they really need this spectrum.

[joshuam]

Opening bids on incentive auction posted!

 

http://transition.fcc.gov/Daily_Releases/Daily_Business/2015/db1016/DA-15-1191A2.pdf

[richy]

Is there something to prevent Softbank/Sprint jumping in and winning all of the 30/40MHz reserved spectrum?

Iirc there's a 20 MHz per market maximum.

[bigsnake49]

Opening bids on incentive auction posted!

 

http://transition.fcc.gov/Daily_Releases/Daily_Business/2015/db1016/DA-15-1191A2.pdf

 

Damn there are some really high bids.

[shaferz]

Damn there are some really high bids.

 

Holy shit, no kidding.  

[Trip]

Opening bids.  Key word.  Prices will drop as the auction goes on.

 

- Trip

[joshuam]

Verizon is NOT backing out of 600Mhz auction (though not a priority for them).

 

http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/verizons-shammo-well-be-600-mhz-auction-more-interested-high-band-spectrum/2015-10-20

 

 

 

Also, this could be pretty big news for T-Mobile. The parents might be coming to help them.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-20/deutsche-telekom-said-to-consider-sale-of-t-mobile-netherlands