Softbank - New Sprint - Discussion

[The Dave]

I was really sad when they did away with Premier.

[SpenceSouth]

I was really sad when they did away with Premier.

I was too but there was no way that was sustainable. Everyone would be a Premier member today lol.

 

Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk

 

 

[OhioCalling]

Everyone would not have to be Premier today if the qualifications were changed so you have to be an account in good standing with 10 or whatever number of years.

[lordsutch]

Honestly, I can't see the FCC approving a merger between Sprint and T-Mobile without the merged entity supporting BYOP (which means keeping both 1x and GSM/WCDMA for quite a while), agreeing to a mandatory buildout of at least basic voice and data service to something like 90-95% of POPs to ensure there is a real third carrier alternative for most Americans, a heavier market buildout requirement on PCS G than "substantial service," and committing to rural fixed broadband deployment on 2500/2600. If the FCC wants Legere-style market disruption with 3 carriers instead of 4, they want it on a national scale to keep the big two honest, rather than metro-only competition.

[S4GRU]

Honestly, I can't see the FCC approving a merger between Sprint and T-Mobile without the merged entity supporting BYOP (which means keeping both 1x and GSM/WCDMA for quite a while), agreeing to a mandatory buildout of at least basic voice and data service to something like 90-95% of POPs to ensure there is a real third carrier alternative for most Americans, a heavier market buildout requirement on PCS G than "substantial service," and committing to rural fixed broadband deployment on 2500/2600. If the FCC wants Legere-style market disruption with 3 carriers instead of 4, they want it on a national scale to keep the big two honest, rather than metro-only competition.

 

I agree with this thinking.  If the Feds go along with a merger, the conditions will be painful and expensive.  But it may be an opportunity to get a lot of things that have been on our wishlist completed.  It is possible that we could end up with a more competitive landscape with the 3 big providers than two large and two small providers.  If it was structured right for the consumer.

 

Robert

[Rawvega]

If the Feds go along with a merger, the conditions will be painful and expensive.  

 

Robert

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2014/01/30/antitrust-chief-dont-waste-my-time-with-half-hearted-offers/?mod=yahoo_hs

 

“We will not waste our time with plainly inadequate settlement offers,” U.S. Assistant Attorney General Bill Baer will say in a speech to the New York State Bar Association, according to a copy of his prepared remarks.

 

Companies seeking to merge in concentrated markets often seek to eliminate a big rival “while proposing a remedy that allows for a small rival or new entrant with limited resources to nip at the heels of the few remaining big players,” Mr. Baer will say in the speech.  Companies should be “on notice that this strategy is unlikely to succeed,” he says.

 

Hopefully Son knows what he's doing…. 

[S4GRU]

http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2014/01/30/antitrust-chief-dont-waste-my-time-with-half-hearted-offers/?mod=yahoo_hs

 

 

Hopefully Son knows what he's doing…. 

 

That sure seems pointed at Sprint, huh?

 

Robert

[Rawvega]

Indeed!

[Johnner1999]

That sure seems pointed at Sprint, huh?

 

Robert

As a huge fan of BSG, I think Son as a Cylon - and they always had a plan!

 

So say we all

 

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[bigsnake49]

I agree with this thinking.  If the Feds go along with a merger, the conditions will be painful and expensive.  But it may be an opportunity to get a lot of things that have been on our wishlist completed.  It is possible that we could end up with a more competitive landscape with the 3 big providers than two large and two small providers.  If it was structured right for the consumer.

 

Robert

 

Which Son already wanted. He wanted coverage that was compettive with Verizon and AT&T. None of those conditions are onerous except perhaps the dictate to keep legacy networks around for a lot longer. Actually those are were anticipated in Sprint's plans to buy T-Mobile before Softbank entered the picture. It was understood even back then that the combined entity would not be allowed to be just an urban carrier anymore. 

Edited January 31, 2014 by bigsnake49

[dnicekid]

I am starting to wonder what has sprint with  Dish in regards to how this will all play out? Usually we would have heard something in the rumor mill of what Dish was planning on doing. It seems Sprint may have Dish or someone else included in this.

Mr Son seems determined to buy the other carrier after all the recent "reports" of what the feds are thinking... 

 

Besides adding 30+ mil customers is it possible to go after a smaller regional carrier, for a few billion and use an additional  $15 bill to invest into the network and come out less than a $51 bil for the other carrier? I understand more customers mean more cash, but it seems Sprint may have to:

 

1) Help make its own "replacement" carrier

2) Give up a significant amount of spectrum

3) Still be "disruptive"/ the maverick

4) Expand its own network 

5) Be able to compete with the att/vzw

 

 

It seems like Sprint is going to have to jump through a lot of hoops to make the feds happy. When does it become too much vs other alternatives?

When ever Sprint finally announces its plans I think it will have the "wow" factor in it.

[bigsnake49]

I am starting to wonder what has sprint with  Dish in regards to how this will all play out? Usually we would have heard something in the rumor mill of what Dish was planning on doing. It seems Sprint may have Dish or someone else included in this.

Mr Son seems determined to buy the other carrier after all the recent "reports" of what the feds are thinking... 

 

Besides adding 30+ mil customers is it possible to go after a smaller regional carrier, for a few billion and use an additional  $15 bill to invest into the network and come out less than a $51 bil for the other carrier? I understand more customers mean more cash, but it seems Sprint may have to:

 

1) Help make its own "replacement" carrier

2) Give up a significant amount of spectrum

3) Still be "disruptive"/ the maverick

4) Expand its own network 

5) Be able to compete with the att/vzw

 

 

It seems like Sprint is going to have to jump through a lot of hoops to make the feds happy. When does it become too much vs other alternatives?

When ever Sprint finally announces its plans I think it will have the "wow" factor in it.

 

Unfortunately, that's what it will take for this merger to go through. Even then, the combined company will be at a disadvantage vis a vis AT&T and Verizon because of the much superior numbers of high priced contract plans.

[S4GRU]

I think Sprint has too much to lose if it goes through or not. They either will not be successful and lose valuable time being distracted with a buyout and a valuable break up fee that will only strengthen a competitor or they are successful and have to make crippling concessions and spectrum dispositions. It's hard to imagine Sprint coming out a winner and being in a position of strength over the duopoly.  

 

Even if it is successful, the feds will make sure AT&T and Verizon get a chunk of the New New Sprint's spectrum that make it nearly an even playing field spectrum wise. Except the new emerged Sprint/Tmo will be at a disadvantage with low frequency spectrum and coverage. It would just be two strong companies and a weaker one.  

 

A combined Sprint needs a strong spectrum advantage where they can lord over high speed unlimited to compete against the duopoly, gaining subscribers and allowing it to expand coverage to match AT&T and Verizon. A weakened third competitor will not likely to be able to expand coverage.  

 

I just don't see a healthy conclusion for Sprint in making a bid for Tmo from the info known now. The only way this works is if the Feds allowed it to happen without much divestiture. I don't see that happening. And the DOJ is on watch. They shot across the bow just yesterday.  

 

Every day I get a little less neutral and more against this potential transaction. I like what it could be, but I fear what it more likely will become.  

 

Robert via Samsung Note 8.0 using Tapatalk Pro

[Fraydog]

I'm in the same boat as Robert on this, specifically, I want Sprint to turn itself around before SoftBank entertains too much of a discussion with DT. 

[WiWavelength]

I'm in the same boat as Robert on this, specifically, I want Sprint to turn itself around before SoftBank entertains too much of a discussion with DT. 

 

I will still rebut those who dismiss Sprint-T-Mobile out of hand because of their undying love for magenta.  But I have decided not to support this potential acquisition.

 

Besides, a merger at this point in time would deprive Sprint of fully hitting magenta hard with the sharp jab of band 41 TD-LTE 2600 and the bowel quivering body blow of band 26 LTE 800.  Good thing that shirt is already pink -- because there will be blood.

 

AJ

[transitwatch889]

Make sure your house is in order before inviting guest... I believe the upside exist but not with out headaches... Foundation to stand on is everything... I would rather Sprint make smaller plays as they get the network online and have the basis of all three bands operational... Acquire pieces to fortify the whole... Carrier aggregation and wide spread band 41 as Robert said in another thread and building penetration of band 26... Convergence of another pcs carrier to off load any capacity issues would go along way to help establish an identity that people can trust to give there money too and have there business and families rely upon...

[mozamcrew]

I am starting to wonder what has sprint with  Dish in regards to how this will all play out? Usually we would have heard something in the rumor mill of what Dish was planning on doing. It seems Sprint may have Dish or someone else included in this.

Mr Son seems determined to buy the other carrier after all the recent "reports" of what the feds are thinking... 

 

Besides adding 30+ mil customers is it possible to go after a smaller regional carrier, for a few billion and use an additional  $15 bill to invest into the network and come out less than a $51 bil for the other carrier? I understand more customers mean more cash, but it seems Sprint may have to:

 

1) Help make its own "replacement" carrier

2) Give up a significant amount of spectrum

3) Still be "disruptive"/ the maverick

4) Expand its own network 

5) Be able to compete with the att/vzw

 

 

It seems like Sprint is going to have to jump through a lot of hoops to make the feds happy. When does it become too much vs other alternatives?

When ever Sprint finally announces its plans I think it will have the "wow" factor in it.

 

This is exactly the trouble with this merger. Because of the need to make regional/replacement providers viable and calls for spectrum divestment from ATT/VZW, I predict Sprint will be forced to divest nearly all of the spectrum acquired from TMUS.  Whether or not such a merger is worthwhile depends on the price they pay, what Sprint will be required to divest, what $$ they get for the divested assets when they are sold, and what they are able to keep in terms of customers and low frequency spectrum.

[dnicekid]

I was thinking that the merger could be something to finally get att/vzw on their heels. After looking more into it I think Sprint will lose to much. I was thinking the combined cash and numbers would help them in the 600 auction, rather than bid against each other. 

 

I still think somewhere down the line Dish has something in this with Sprint, whether it becomes #4 or its NOT a Sprint/tmo merger but a Sprint/Dish partnership where dish uses/swap some of the 25/2600 for its 700.

 

At this point I feel like Sprint should just get this network thing done and start looking for regionals 

[afazel]

A better scenario would be A Softbank acquisition of tmobile and a forced partnership between the two providers where either company's phones would work on the other without roaming.

 

Maybe that's just crazy, though, and I'm wrong.

 

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[WiWavelength]

A better scenario would be A Softbank acquisition of tmobile and a forced partnership between the two providers where either company's phones would work on the other without roaming.

 

Maybe that's just crazy, though, and I'm wrong.

 

It could be a partnership like Everything Everywhere in the UK.  But the US is a much, much larger country.  So, it would probably have to be called Something Someplace.

 

 

AJ

[bigsnake49]

The strategy all along has been to make Dish a competitor by:

 

1. Divesting EBS to them to be used for rural broadband and/or VOD/OTT video

2. Divest the T-Mobile network to them after the appropriate panels have been added to Nework vision and the appropriate cards have been added to the basestation hardware

 

Both of the above steps will serve to offset the cost of the merger.

 

There will not be a spectrum divestment in any of the other bands.

There will be an increase in the rural coverage. So both the T-Mobile and Sprint denizens will benefit.

There will a decoupling of the cost of the phone and cost of service

There will be a price increase eventually to pay for said increased coverage, but not in the beginning

 

The people advising Softbank/Sprint are not dumb. They know what they're doing. Son always wanted T-mobile as well as Sprint.

Edited January 31, 2014 by bigsnake49

[mozamcrew]

The strategy all along has been to make Dish a competitor by:

 

1. Divesting EBS to them to be used for rural broadband and/or VOD/OTT video

2. Divest the T-Mobile network to them after the appropriate panels have been added to Nework vision and the appropriate cards have been added to the basestation hardware

 

Both of the above steps will serve to offset the cost of the merger.

 

There will not be a spectrum divestment in any of the other bands.

There will be an increase in the rural coverage. So both the T-Mobile and Sprint denizens will benefit.

There will a decoupling of the cost of the phone and cost of service

There will be a price increase eventually to pay for said increased coverage, but not in the beginning

 

The people advising Softbank/Sprint are not dumb. They know what they're doing. Son always wanted T-mobile as well as Sprint.

 

No way the FCC bites on EBS only divestment. You can't build a competitive carrier with EBS. Sprint struggled to do it without the 800 Mhz Nextel spectrum. Especially if your goal is rural coverage.

[Fraydog]

To me what bigsnake49 describes isn't a real 4th competitor. It's Dish selling rural EBS capacity to rural users.

[dnicekid]

The strategy all along has been to make Dish a competitor by:

 

1. Divesting EBS to them to be used for rural broadband and/or VOD/OTT video

2. Divest the T-Mobile network to them after the appropriate panels have been added to Nework vision and the appropriate cards have been added to the basestation hardware

 

Both of the above steps will serve to offset the cost of the merger.

 

There will not be a spectrum divestment in any of the other bands.

There will be an increase in the rural coverage. So both the T-Mobile and Sprint denizens will benefit.

There will a decoupling of the cost of the phone and cost of service

There will be a price increase eventually to pay for said increased coverage, but not in the beginning

 

The people advising Softbank/Sprint are not dumb. They know what they're doing. Son always wanted T-mobile as well as Sprint.

Sounds like you have an inside person! I didnt know there was that much detail out, good info!

 

If this merger goes through, will according to what you posted will Sprint stop deploying on 25/2600? Also, when you say tmo network I assume all of their spectrum as well or just 700 or aws or just their space on the towers?

 

I hope the Softbank people know what they are doing, it was my understanding that son wanted sprint/clear because of the 25/2600. I believe that Son can make it work, I just dont want Sprint to lose more than they gain in the  long term. 

[dnicekid]

Dont forget Dish is sitting on some useful 700, if I am not mistaken.

 

It looks real complicated, as Sprint is already offering tri-band now we could see octa- band? 

Possibly 

600 auction

700 tmo/dish

800 sprint

1700 tmo

1800 tmo

1900 sprint

2100? tmo

25/2600 roaming on Dish?

 

Maybe Sprint should just lease/host dish on some of the 25/2600 and use Dishes 700 buy what it can at the auction.