Dish Network/Boost Mobile cell/5G buildout thread

[dkyeager]

5 hours ago, chamb said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dish-gets-us-help-easing-135432626.html

Anti-Trust regulators supposedly are asking judge to give DISH more time to buy the 800 spectrum from T-Mobile.

They reduced the number of months to 7 (April 2024). Dish wanted 12 iirc

edit: https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/dish-gets-doj-support-800-mhz-extension

 

[dkyeager]

Does the Dish network fully exist?  The FCC and Dish agreed to how that will be tested: https://www.fiercewireless.com/5g/dish-gets-fccs-blessing-5g-buildout-commitments

 

[red_dog007]

Geez. $1.2B savings to shift 70% traffic off MVNO with what is it, 9M customers. That's $11.11/mo avg per customer paid to ATT / TMo.

Pretty nuts. Maybe their high churn would actually be helpful, lol. People leave with incompatible Dish phones and new sign ups come in with compatible Dish phones.

[4GHoward]

FYI..

https://about.dish.com/2023-10-16-DISH-Wireless-is-the-Worlds-First-Network-Operator-to-Accomplish-Simultaneous-5G-2x-Uplink-and-4x-Downlink-Carrier-Aggregation-for-FDD-Spectrum

 

[PythonFanPA]

https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/dishs-technical-breakthrough-means-faster-speeds-customers

[RedSpark]

https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/dish-agrees-pay-100m-t-mobile-extension-800-mhz-dispute

[PythonFanPA]

https://cordcuttersnews.com/t-mobile-and-dish-which-just-made-peace-on-one-spectrum-deal-is-fighting-over-another/

[red_dog007]

If dish can't get $3.6B in funding, how are they to get $7.1B? These companies can't realistically hold onto everything below 2.5GHz for Dish to buy when they get the money or "approve" the sale to a competitor.

I could understand if Dish's defense if they had the money but they don't.

If they had better phone support, they could at least try to do a lease to buy option with these guys. Get the spectrum deployed, and start saving money.

Just sitting here wondering when I can start using their airwaves. :/

Edited October 22, 2023 by red_dog007

[Trip]

Utter.  Fiasco.

So I now have another new Moto G 2023 which did successfully bootloader unlock and is now rooted.  I wanted to activate a SIM on the $100/year plan if at all possible, and it's online-only, so I decided to call up my nearest Boost store and see if they had the Rainbow SIM.  I tried twice; both times it went to Cox voicemail after 5 rings, and asked me to input my number, as if I was logging in to retrieve messages.  Weird.  So then I tried the next nearest store, and that one it would hang up as soon as the call connected.  Tried several times.  Finally, third store was the charm, that one I got an answer right away, and they had the Rainbow SIM.  Ran over to the store and picked up two of them, $10/ea.

Got home, tried to activate online.  Nope, ICCID is given as invalid.  Tried to talk with chat, and chat told me I had to call.  Called, and the call dropped the first time.  Called back, spent a whole hour on the phone with the second guy, and after a lot of talking back and forth, picking the $168/year plan, we got to the part where I needed to give my credit card, and three different cards were rejected.  He said it was probably a system issue, and that I should go into a store.  Guy was very nice and helpful, but he ultimately couldn't get me started.

So I'm sitting here and after all of that, I have nothing to show for it.  Not really an auspicious start.

- Trip

[dkyeager]

7 hours ago, Trip said:

Utter.  Fiasco.

So I now have another new Moto G 2023 which did successfully bootloader unlock and is now rooted.  I wanted to activate a SIM on the $100/year plan if at all possible, and it's online-only, so I decided to call up my nearest Boost store and see if they had the Rainbow SIM.  I tried twice; both times it went to Cox voicemail after 5 rings, and asked me to input my number, as if I was logging in to retrieve messages.  Weird.  So then I tried the next nearest store, and that one it would hang up as soon as the call connected.  Tried several times.  Finally, third store was the charm, that one I got an answer right away, and they had the Rainbow SIM.  Ran over to the store and picked up two of them, $10/ea.

Got home, tried to activate online.  Nope, ICCID is given as invalid.  Tried to talk with chat, and chat told me I had to call.  Called, and the call dropped the first time.  Called back, spent a whole hour on the phone with the second guy, and after a lot of talking back and forth, picking the $168/year plan, we got to the part where I needed to give my credit card, and three different cards were rejected.  He said it was probably a system issue, and that I should go into a store.  Guy was very nice and helpful, but he ultimately couldn't get me started.

So I'm sitting here and after all of that, I have nothing to show for it.  Not really an auspicious start.

- Trip

When you fall off their automated systems, it can quickly turn into a real quagmire. Once I ran into a hero by chance who rescued me, but don't count on it.

[Paynefanbro]

Interesting speculation from New Street Research at the end of this article: https://www.fiercewireless.com/5g/t-mobile-expands-mid-band-5g-300m-people-fights-more-low-band-spectrum

They think Dish is objecting to T-Mobile amassing more 600MHz from Columbia Capital and Comcast specifically because they'd like to "trade" (really sell) their own 600MHz to T-Mobile in order to get the 800MHz spectrum. The example they use is NYC where Dish owns 20MHz of 600MHz spectrum. T-Mobile only has 10MHz in NYC but would have 15MHz post Comcast transaction. Since it seems like T-Mobile is going for at least 20MHz of 600MHz nationwide, T-Mobile would only need to acquire 5MHz from Dish instead of 10MHz which means Dish makes less money in a potential future transaction.

[dkyeager]

15 hours ago, Paynefanbro said:

...Since it seems like T-Mobile is going for at least 20MHz of 600MHz nationwide, T-Mobile would only need to acquire 5MHz from Dish instead of 10MHz which means Dish makes less money in a potential future transaction.

I think T-Mobile would take more in NYC.  Lots of office interiors essentially require it.  They would want it to be contiguous, which is much more important for 5g. Of course it needs to be cost justified.

[Paynefanbro]

8 hours ago, dkyeager said:

I think T-Mobile would take more in NYC.  Lots of office interiors essentially require it.  They would want it to be contiguous, which is much more important for 5g. Of course it needs to be cost justified.

Fingers crossed. It was always unfortunate that T-Mobile only got 10MHz in the initial 600MHz auction. But now that Comcast seems to be focusing on CBRS small cells for their network ambitions and Dish desperately needing money, it's seems more and more likely that they'll get to 20MHz and maybe even more depending on how much spectrum Dish is willing to part with.

[Trip]

On 10/23/2023 at 3:44 PM, Trip said:

Utter.  Fiasco.

So, I made it to the store today.

As expected, they were unable to do it on a plan lower than the $40/mo plan, despite my best efforts.  He even went so far as to show me on the system that it wouldn't allow him (not at my insistence, but he was going to put me on a non-Dish SIM and I was insistent).  Oh, and since in-store activation has a $35 fee, they basically won't let you connect to Dish without paying the activation fee since you can't do it online.  But, the guy was very nice, and I now have an activated phone on Dish Wireless. 

https://imgur.com/a/j3BPgrx

Now to file another bug report on SCP since it doesn't handle Dish Wireless sectors properly.  (I'm not connected to Edison HS.)

- Trip

[Paynefanbro]

Yikes.

Dish's struggles continue in Q3

Dish's third quarter results came in far below expectations, and the company's CEO made an early exit. 'We're failing fast and we're learning,' said Dish founder Charlie Ergen. Next up for Dish: a merger with EchoStar.

https://www.lightreading.com/5g/dish-s-struggles-continue-in-q3

[dkyeager]

Hope they succeed, but they make me wince from a financial perspective.  DOJ may have gotten what they wanted... ...another Sprint!

[4GHoward]

Some news..

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20231105560781/en/LIBERTY-LATIN-AMERICA-TO-ACQUIRE-PUERTO-RICO-AND-USVI-SPECTRUM-AND-SUBSCRIBER-ASSETS-FROM-DISH-NETWORK

 

[red_dog007]

Financially, they still have positive net revenue and up for the year. Likely won't be the 10-15% it typically is.

Merger with Echostar, they don't make money but have little debt and almost $2B in revenue. Should help their debt ratio and give them some added leverage.

The terrible bit is just constantly hemorrhaging customers. I think the wireless business is still a long term play and it's going to be difficult for them. Faster they can pass out rainbow sims, faster they can at least start saving money.

Sling has been around 8 years and only has 2M customers. That service is a Deadman walking. Then DishTV, at what point is it worth just shutting the service off? Then Echostar, I don't see how they can long term compete with constellations such as that from Starlink.

They still bring in a lot of revenue but how long can they keep it up? Wireless is only $3.2B of their revenue at $35 ARPU.

[Trip]

13 hours ago, red_dog007 said:

Faster they can pass out rainbow sims, faster they can at least start saving money.

The problem is that as of right now, they can't hand them out because the network isn't ready.  I've done a bunch of driving around over the past week and a half, since I got my Rainbow SIM, and it's kind of impressive how sparse it is.  In the city of Alexandria, I'm aware of 9 permitted sites.  Of those, only 5 are actually operating today.  The site that would be my home site only got antennas put up last week, even though the permits have been around for about a year.  Meanwhile, T-Mobile has 37 sites, by my count.  While some of those are obviously for capacity, there are plenty of places where the coverage itself is an issue, independent of capacity.  

It's not ready for showtime yet.  I'm not sure it would be ready even if all 9 were operating. 

(And in Fairfax County, one site I went by specifically to check on Saturday that's had Dish antennas for months is not yet operating.  Don't know what's going on there.)

- Trip

[dkyeager]

1 hour ago, Trip said:

The problem is that as of right now, they can't hand them out because the network isn't ready.  I've done a bunch of driving around over the past week and a half, since I got my Rainbow SIM, and it's kind of impressive how sparse it is.  In the city of Alexandria, I'm aware of 9 permitted sites.  Of those, only 5 are actually operating today.  The site that would be my home site only got antennas put up last week, even though the permits have been around for about a year.  Meanwhile, T-Mobile has 37 sites, by my count.  While some of those are obviously for capacity, there are plenty of places where the coverage itself is an issue, independent of capacity.  

It's not ready for showtime yet.  I'm not sure it would be ready even if all 9 were operating. 

(And in Fairfax County, one site I went by specifically to check on Saturday that's had Dish antennas for months is not yet operating.  Don't know what's going on there.)

- Trip

You have to wonder how much of this is for show for investors versus is fully ready. Logically, it would be typical to bring up a market at a time.

[chamb]

2 hours ago, dkyeager said:

You have to wonder how much of this is for show for investors versus is fully ready. Logically, it would be typical to bring up a market at a time.

Charlie needs more money. 

If I were a contractor, I would want paid before I hauled any antennas/radios to the top of a tower.

If I were an investor, I would look elsewhere to ensure I received a good return on my money and would eventually get it all back. 

If I were a business wanting service for multiple locations and many employees, I would look elsewhere for a provider that will be around for years and covers the entire county, not just pockets here and there.

If I were T-Mobile, I would be carefully watching the incoming payments for roaming.

If I were a DISH employee, I would be worried about my job and paycheck. 

If I were a back-haul provider, I would worry that the expense of setting up back-haul would never be recovered.

If I was leasing out space on a cell site tower, I would be worried that the income might suddenly stop.

If I were a provider of RAN equipment & software, I would worry about ever recovering all the funds already due and expected in the future.

I am none of the above, But I surely am not going to allow DISH to handle my cell service.

[dkyeager]

DISH was $25.02 on April 1, 2020. $3.515 today. To cover their merger costs, T-Mobile locked in low interest rates while DISH delayed.

[chamb]

18 minutes ago, dkyeager said:

DISH was $25.02 on April 1, 2020. $3.515 today. To cover their merger costs, T-Mobile locked in low interest rates while DISH delayed.

Yep, It could have been accidental or maybe the T-Mobile executives were very smart.  Either way, they used very low interest money and now DISH will need to use very high interest money if it is even available at all. Somebody might step up and give DISH some help, but you can bet there will be strings attached to any loan or merger.

DISH is not really in any Drivers seat. 

[dkyeager]

Bad management decisions? Blame the employees: https://www.lightreading.com/wireless/open-ran

[dkyeager]

https://www.techdirt.com/2023/11/08/dish-network-the-trump-era-fix-for-the-sprint-t-mobile-merger-looks-increasingly-doomed/

Easy to be critical.  What would save Dish?

Here are some of my initial thoughts:

 

1) Execution of a cohesive plan is key. Communicate chosen plan.  Dish may actually be working on the items below, but on a haphazard basis.

2) Focus on improving cash flow. Hopefully Dish is not to the point of where bad short term decisions have to be made that will proven expensive to fix in the intermediate term.  Long term may no longer be a viable business choice.

3) Finish 5g on a market by market basis.

4) There should be solid coverage inside a market, since once a phone roams it can be hard to for it to get back to the home carrier.

5) Dish needs a marketing plan for its new network.  The current stealth approach does not inspire confidence among consumers or investors.  This should be backed up by local advertising and support among its dealers.

6) Purge bad dealers. One gets the feeling that a lot of their dealer contracts were written on napkins or are really payment locations. Training.