Softbank - New Sprint - Discussion

[S4GRU]

I always thought that having a Tri-Band device was enough of a challenge but adding T-Mobile's AWS spectrum to the mix would make things even more complex than necessary. At best I see Sprint keeping T-Mobile and Metro PCS' 1900 spectrum and selling off AWS to Verizon to get cash for all that spectrum. 

 

In any case, I would much rather see Sprint/Softbank use all that money towards accelerating the Network Vision rollout rather than buying T-Mobile. 

 

And to piggy back on AJ's point, USCC and AT&T both have devices with more LTE bands than Sprints Triband.  Incorporating AWS Band 4 into future Sprint devices is not a big deal at all now with single path transmission being the norm.

 

Robert

[JohnHovah]

Read more at: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fcc-chief-tells-sprint-chair-000521569.html

 

So now supposedly the stink eye from the DoJ and the FCC. Perhaps it's time for Son to start thinking about whatever his 'Plan B' is.

I think Son will skip whatever Plan B is, since I am under the impression he wants to keep the baby, regardless of its frodo status

[utiz4321]

Further fodder that will support an argument that sprint needs the magenta http://www.jdpower.com/content/press-release/2rlA1q4/2014-u-s-wireless-customer-care-full-service-performance-study-and-u-s-wireless-customer-care-non-contract-performance-study-vol-1.htm

 

And I hate it.

 

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Studies like these are proof that Americans need more education in statistics. The spread between sprint and ATT (bottom and top) is so small that though JD power was able to get a statistically significant result (through a large sample size) the actually difference is meaningless. It's probably with in the error or not far out side of it anyway. The article's title should be JD powers finds not much difference between major carrier in..., like all their studies.

[Fraydog]

Further fodder that will support an argument that sprint needs the magenta http://www.jdpower.com/content/press-release/2rlA1q4/2014-u-s-wireless-customer-care-full-service-performance-study-and-u-s-wireless-customer-care-non-contract-performance-study-vol-1.htm

 

And I hate it.

 

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There is a communication issue if we as members of S4GRU know more about the wireless service in Cleveland than the reps there working for Sprint. That seems to be the big issue that Sprint has to solve. Their communication clearly needs work. As much as I loathe some of TMUS's current antics, they're currently running rings around Sprint as far as corporate communication goes. 

[Rawvega]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-05/softbank-said-to-seek-decision-on-t-mobile-bid-in-coming-weeks.html?cmpid=yhoo

 

 

“Even if the negotiations with the authorities fail, Son will consider another plan to enlarge Sprint,” said Naoki Fujiwara, Tokyo-based chief fund manager at Shinkin Asset Management Co., which oversees the equivalent of about $6 billion.

 

 

 

Whatever this alternative plan of Son's may be, it's more intriguing to me at this point than a T-Mobile tie-up.

[S4GRU]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-05/softbank-said-to-seek-decision-on-t-mobile-bid-in-coming-weeks.html?cmpid=yhoo

 

 

 

Whatever this alternative plan of Son's may be, it's more intriguing to me at this point than a T-Mobile tie-up.

 

This could be a reference to going after regionals.  If Sprint was able to pick up C-Spire, USCC, nTelos, Carolina West, Swiftel, Commnet and try an aggressive organic build out of major towns and highways, it could really be attractive to many more susbcribers.

 

Going after urban customers right now will be tough.  But going after rural and tertiary customers who don't even know Sprint could be a much better way to build subscribers and momentum.  Then in two years, with a built out underburdened urban network, Sprint can then even compete with the duopoly.  Offer unlimited for the best price around and have a quality network and coverage to back it up.  

 

This is Sprint's best plan going forward without merging with Tmo.  Sprint shouldn't try to compete head to head with Tmo.  They need to go after the big two directly.  Competitive pricing, equal to or better network performance and coverage.  Tmo can just focus on being the cheap urban provider.

 

Robert

[dnicekid]

This could be a reference to going after regionals. If Sprint was able to pick up C-Spire, USCC, nTelos, Carolina West, Swiftel, Commnet and try an aggressive organic build out of major towns and highways, it could really be attractive to many more susbcribers.

 

Going after urban customers right now will be tough. But going after rural and tertiary customers who don't even know Sprint could be a much better way to build subscribers and momentum. Then in two years, with a built out underburdened urban network, Sprint can then even compete with the duopoly. Offer unlimited for the best price around and have a quality network and coverage to back it up.

 

This is Sprint's best plan going forward without merging with Tmo. Sprint shouldn't try to compete head to head with Tmo. They need to go after the big two directly. Competitive pricing, equal to or better network performance and coverage. Tmo can just focus on being the cheap urban provider.

 

Robert

I think if Sprint doesn't buy or ink some network sharing deal with tmo, tmo will start attacking Sprint as they did ATT.

 

That said, what if Sprint does exactly what you say, then work out a deal with tmo so they can purchase the 600?

[jefbal99]

I think if Sprint doesn't buy or ink some network sharing deal with tmo, tmo will try to go after Sprint.

 

That said, what if Sprint does exactly what you say, then work out a deal with tmo so they can purchase the 600?

That is crazy talk there

 

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[dnicekid]

Sorry about that it has been edited

[Rawvega]

I think if Sprint doesn't buy or ink some network sharing deal with tmo, tmo will start attacking Sprint as they did ATT.

 

That's pretty much what somebody else suggested over on HoFo. It could happen, but they've been doing so well specifically targeting AT&T that I could also see them continuing to do that.

[dstar2002]

I think if Sprint doesn't buy or ink some network sharing deal with tmo, tmo will start attacking Sprint as they did ATT.

 

That said, what if Sprint does exactly what you say, then work out a deal with tmo so they can purchase the 600?

They already are. Rob Gronkowski and 2 other NFL players have seperate commericals of their "break up" letters with Sprint. Check the tmobile youtube page. All 3 are leaving Sprint (if they even had sprint before who knows)

 

 

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[Fraydog]

Johnny Legere is double talking this. Basically saying that Sprint has spectrum but can't build out a network to utilize it, but then saying that his team could fix it.

[utiz4321]

Johnny Legere is double talking this. Basically saying that Sprint has spectrum but can't build out a network to utilize it, but then saying that his team could fix it.

I hate to.say it but he might be right. Not that sprint cant build out a network to.utilize the spectrum but with fiber to be installed in basically all their towers by the middle of this year and 10000 or so clear towers that shoukd be easy to convert, a two year roll out time to cover only the top 100 markets is lack luster in the extreme. This is especially true given where the competition is and the fact that in many markets the one 1900 carrier is being overwelhemed. We will see what their plans look like after the 11th but so far they are rather disapointing.

[The Dave]

It's not like Sprint has any control over how long it takes the fiber suppliers to get their posteriors into gear. When my line went out at my house, Comcast set an appointment for the following Tuesday to run the line and bury it. The actual time it took for Comcast to come out was 7 weeks. The same thing happened at work when they switched from AT&T to Comcast business. It took 3 months for them to run a line from the pole to the building. I would be surprised if it was 1/4 mile of line.

[jamisonshaw125]

I hate to.say it but he might be right. Not that sprint cant build out a network to.utilize the spectrum but with fiber to be installed in basically all their towers by the middle of this year and 10000 or so clear towers that shoukd be easy to convert, a two year roll out time to cover only the top 100 markets is lack luster in the extreme. This is especially true given where the competition is and the fact that in many markets the one 1900 carrier is being overwelhemed. We will see what their plans look like after the 11th but so far they are rather disapointing.

Well, I wouldn't say lackluster in the extreme. Of course people expect more than just top 100 markets, but keep in mind that these markets will also have B25 and B26 most likely fully operational which is already going to be exceptional by itself. Combine that with Spark. Most people won't be able to or won't want to get a triband device until their 2 year contract ends and they are sent into a framily plan or whatever is going on then. I think 2 years is a decent time frame. Meanwhile Sprint will continue to improve its network and Son will do whatever it takes to build out Sprint (hopefully just not with the pied piper DUI of Magenta flavored grease). Doesn't sound too bad of a premonition.

 

Edit: I said all of these markets as if its only the top 100, when in reality every market will have b25 and b26 available. Also quite impressive.

[dstar2002]

It's not like Sprint has any control over how long it takes the fiber suppliers to get their posteriors into gear. When my line went out at my house, Comcast set an appointment for the following Tuesday to run the line and bury it. The actual time it took for Comcast to come out was 7 weeks. The same thing happened at work when they switched from AT&T to Comcast business. It took 3 months for them to run a line from the pole to the building. I would be surprised if it was 1/4 mile of line.

I beg the differ when it comes to sprint. Your house is a drop in the ocean to them financially. Your work is most likely a drop in a lake to them financially. These fiber contracts are worth upwards of 1-2000 bucks per month.

 

Sprint should of built in penalties into the bidding of fiber service. They should of had commitment dates set and other expectations to ensure the work got done. If there was only 1 backhaul company available in an area, I can give them the benefit of the doubt, but many places there are many more options than just one. Sometimes there are as many as 4-5.

 

If Sprint held their feet to the fire, it would get done. Sprint could always slide their money to another provider. Sometimes, you get what you pay for, and now Sprint is behind the 8 ball.

 

 

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[S4GRU]

If you remove the GMO sites, Sprint is pretty far along and certainly can be complete with Band 25 build out on Non GMO sites this year.  When you consider how long it took Tmo to do its backhaul upgrade, there is nothing noteworthy about how long it is taking Sprint.  The problem here is that Sprint had to do it faster than everyone else because they were far behind.  And they couldn't pull a rabbit out of the hat and do it faster.

 

When you consider the scope of Network Vision compared to what the other three did, and they are finishing it front to back in about the same amount of time, it is very impressive.  But customers don't care about the details.  They want a superior network now.  They don't care about overlays versus full build outs and backhaul, etc.  I get that.  But Sprint could not defy reality to do it.

 

So Legere can bend himself over.  Tmo deserves the credit for what they did.  LTE over almost all most of its WCDMA footprint in 9-10 months was an impressive feat.  But Network Vision had to start with Sprint's financial position it had in 2011/2012.  Tmo was in a much better position financially when it started LTE deployment, coming off the spectrum and cash windfall of the AT&T breakup.  Sprint only recently got cash.  And Tmo's scope and footprint of their plan is significantly smaller.

 

Two years ago when NV started, Sprint had no choice but to plan a "just in time" backhaul plan and "just in time" equipment plan, because it did not have the cash to do things in advance.  This created a huge problem that if the backhaul slipped or equipment deliveries slipped, it had immediate and painful impacts.  Also, all the slippages caused a huge management burden/distraction as well as lost efficiencies all the way down the line.  We all watched it snowball.

 

We see how well and how fast the 4th round markets are rolling.  Some are really impressive.  Most of them are the ones that started as SoftBank took over and Sprint had the finances to run them right from the beginning.  West Iowa, the Dakotas and Rochester come to mind.

 

Sprint was limited in the beginning what it could do.  It had its hands tied financially.  And they probably under estimated how fast Tmo would build out their network.  Sprint deserves a lot of criticism.  But it needs to be within the realm of what could be done.  Most of the criticisms about what it can do now are much more fair though.

 

Superficially, it seems that a Top 100 Band 41 buildout in 2-1/2 years is kind of slow.  And the Band 41 build out on Clearwire sites is indeed slow, in my opinion.  But let's look at what Band 41 build out in the next 2-1/2 years entails.

 

It is completion of all 15,000 WiMax sites converted to Band 41 LTE.  It is adding Band 41 LTE to approximately 28,000 Network Vision sites.  And it is building about 16,000 new build macro sites to infill between existing NV/WiMax sites.  That's about 60,000 sites in 2-1/2 years.  That's almost double the size of just Network Vision.  But given it's an easier upgrade scenario, 2 to 2-1/2 years doesn't sound outlandish at all.  And it gives them an opportunity to beat their projections.

 

Also, let's keep in mind that marketwide coverage in the Top 100 markets will likely be achieved much sooner than 2-1/2 years.  The 71 WiMax markets are supposed to be complete before the end of 2014.  Not all 71 are Top 100 markets.  Cities like Stockton, Modesto, Abilene, Yakima and Amarillo are going to benefit, even though they are smaller than Top 100.  But approximately 50 are Top 100 markets.  So there will be ubiquitous coverage in most of the Top 50 markets before the completion of 2014.  And those will continue just to get denser and denser throughout 2015 and into 2016.

 

Unfortunately, the Band 41 LTE overlay on Network Vision sites will require planning approvals and permitting in 75% of their locales.  I hope they are going full speed ahead on that already.  This work is supposed to start next quarter.  Hopefully, they will focus this effort on the other Top 100 markets that do not have WiMax/Band 41 already deployed.  It shouldn't take but 2 years to do this front to back.  So they will be half done in Spring 2015.  So if that first half was focused on the non WiMax/Band 41 LTE markets, they would have complete coverage in the Top 100 markets in just one year from its start.

 

The second year would then be about continuing the new infill sites and completing the NV overlay in existing WiMax markets.  These just make the network denser and better.

 

Remember, Sprint just five short months ago still was planning on just hotspot Band 41 deployment.  To go to a full blown Band 41 deployment is a major stretch.  And the scope is enormous.  In a market that has a complete WiMax or NV overlay of Band 41 will be miraculous.  Even if the Band 41 coverage is thin or missing in between Band 41 sites initially, it will remove a huge burden off the Band 25/26 sites allowing them to work at much better speeds.  Who cares if you fall back on a 10-15Mbps Band 25 connection while they are densifying the rest of the market in Year 2?  What do you think Tmo customers fall back on when in between LTE sites?

 

The over concern about the 2-1/2 year plan for Band 41 deployment is not warranted at this time.  It just needs to be put into perspective.  And Sprint does need to execute it on time!!!

 

Robert

[jamisonshaw125]

As usual, well said. And every time I read one of your posts I learn something new. 

[S4GRU]

Well, I wouldn't say lackluster in the extreme. Of course people expect more than just top 100 markets, but keep in mind that these markets will also have B25 and B26 most likely fully operational which is already going to be exceptional by itself. Combine that with Spark. Most people won't be able to or won't want to get a triband device until their 2 year contract ends and they are sent into a framily plan or whatever is going on then. I think 2 years is a decent time frame. Meanwhile Sprint will continue to improve its network and Son will do whatever it takes to build out Sprint (hopefully just not with the pied piper DUI of Magenta flavored grease). Doesn't sound too bad of a premonition.

 

Edit: I said all of these markets as if its only the top 100, when in reality every market will have b25 and b26 available. Also quite impressive.

 

Band 41 will be added outside the Top 100 as needed for capacity.  Initially, the only Non Top 100 markets that are slated to be upgraded uniformly are just the few smaller WiMax markets like Modesto, Stockton, Visalia, Bridgeport/New Haven, Daytona Beach, Milledgeville, Maui, Eugene, Salem, Reading, Abilene, Amarillo, Lubbock, Midland/Odessa, Waco, Wichita Falls, Bellingham, Tri Cities Washington and Yakima.

 

However, as the need grows in Non Top 100 markets, it is part of Sprint capex to go and add Band 41 capability to any NV site as needed.  They are budgeting and planning for just that scenario when Band 25 cannot have any more carriers added and Band 26 performance is being stressed.

 

Robert

[S4GRU]

I beg the differ when it comes to sprint. Your house is a drop in the ocean to them financially. Your work is most likely a drop in a lake to them financially. These fiber contracts are worth upwards of 1-2000 bucks per month.

 

Sprint should of built in penalties into the bidding of fiber service. They should of had commitment dates set and other expectations to ensure the work got done. If there was only 1 backhaul company available in an area, I can give them the benefit of the doubt, but many places there are many more options than just one. Sometimes there are as many as 4-5.

 

If Sprint held their feet to the fire, it would get done. Sprint could always slide their money to another provider. Sometimes, you get what you pay for, and now Sprint is behind the 8 ball.

 

 

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There are penalties in the contracts.  If they were done properly, they would even have the right to hire someone else to complete the work at the expense of the backhaul provider.

 

Robert

[cdk]

There are penalties in the contracts.  If they were done properly, they would even have the right to hire someone else to complete the work at the expense of the backhaul provider.

 

Robert

 

Do we have an reports/indications that Sprint has started to invoke them yet?

[S4GRU]

Do we have an reports/indications that Sprint has started to invoke them yet?

 

Nope.  We know they have fired NV Contractors.  But no evidence yet of them firing backhaul providers.

 

Robert

[utiz4321]

Robert,

I think in comparing tmobile deployment of HSDPA+ Network vision comes out heads and shoulders above that project. But that was largely done under another CEO. But back haul will be largely in place when the band 41 roll out gets going in earnest.

 

So if we are going to compare roll outs in something like an apples to apples way we would have to compare it to tmobile lte rollout (back haul was also in place when this begain too). Here sprint's band 41 plans don't come off as well (as far as time is concerned, the network itself will be better). Now this isn't apples to apples either as sprint's plans include smalls cells and other densification aspects but it's closer.

 

I also don't see permitting as a choke point for most places. At least it wasn't for NV and that required at least as much in permits as band 41 will.

 

They need an NV type push with band 41 because it in conjunction with band 25 an 26 promises that consistent costumer network experience that we both agree will be the key to sprint's and every network operators success. Their current plans don't strike me as ambitious as NV and to me that is a mistake.

 

I know you disagree but that is my thought.

[S4GRU]

Robert,

I think in comparing tmobile deployment of HSDPA+ Network vision comes out heads and shoulders above that project. But that was largely done under another CEO. But back haul will be largely in place when the band 41 roll out gets going in earnest.

 

So if we are going to compare roll outs in something like an apples to apples way we would have to compare it to tmobile lte rollout (back haul was also in place when this begain too). Here sprint's band 41 plans don't come off as well (as far as time is concerned, the network itself will be better). Now this isn't apples to apples either as sprint's plans include smalls cells and other densification aspects but it's closer.

 

I also don't see permitting as a choke point for most places. At least it wasn't for NV and that required at least as much in permits as band 41 will.

 

They need an NV type push with band 41 because it in conjunction with band 25 an 26 promises that consistent costumer network experience that we both agree will be the key to sprint's and every network operators success. Their current plans don't strike me as ambitious as NV and to me that is a mistake.

 

I know you disagree but that is my thought.

 

The part that is comparable to Tmo is just the NV overlay in the Top 100 markets.  Not the entirety of Band 41 deployment.  I feel like I did a fair explanation above that shows that they are being done in pretty similar fashion.  Sprint should have Band 41 in a complete overlay in the Top 100 markets in only one year from the time they start the NV overlay.

 

And then Sprint is doing something even further than Tmo is doing.  They are DENSIFYING their network even further.  Beyond Spring 2015, Sprint should only be working on densifying existing WiMax markets with their NV overlay and adding new additional macro sites.

 

Tmo is not adding additional high speed macro sites in between their LTE islands.  They just let you fall back on WCDMA.  But even on WCDMA, there are tens of thousands of places on Tmo, even in urban areas, where you cannot get any LTE or WCDMA inside movie theaters, large box stores, shopping malls, office buildings, etc.  Tmo needs to densify their network.  And Sprint is doing that, and will still have Band 25/26 to fall back on too.

 

Robert

[Boosted20V]

To be honest, people can talk up the speeds of B41 but the real killer is 800mhz. When I get ubiquitous indoor LTE coverage that will be very satisfying!