Softbank - New Sprint - Discussion

[Nickel]

I have just read so many mixed reports. But all is speculation right now, with no guarantees. It is unlikely that Son would pay a high breakup fee, but You never know until details are announced.

As I and others have said, that's not something they can afford to do. Not necessarily from a financial standpoint but from a business prospective, it's suicide. You're giving a competitor your money, that's not good. The only reason T-Mobile got such a sweet deal is because of the difference in market share and size differences of the companies. 

[Destroyallcubes]

As I and others have said, that's not something they can afford to do. Not necessarily from a financial standpoint but from a business prospective, it's suicide. You're giving a competitor your money, that's not good. The only reason T-Mobile got such a sweet deal is because of the difference in market share and size differences of the companies. 

Yeah That but I was saying DT was wanting a big break up fee, and Son a lower Fee. Spectrum wont be included for sure. But money would be. I personally think it would be between 5-10% of the total bid. so around 2-4.5 billion. DT from some speculation wants 15% or more. At first read It came as there wasn't going to be a break up fee, but It just wont be on the scale as the ATT failed merger.

[WiWavelength]

Guys, as I have stated previously, Sprint would not pay any breakup fee. SoftBank would.

 

AJ

[S4GRU]

I didn't mean cold feet on the merger. I meant cold feet on making continued investment in Sprint. I certainly hope that's not the case, but when I read between the lines, it doesn't sound like he's happy with Sprint's performance. That's good if he has the resolve to fix it. If he doesn't have the resolve to fix it that's bad.

 

He isn't going to walk away from the ~$30 Billion or so he has invested in Sprint no matter what happens with Tmo.  Sprint is not a lost cause.  Fire a few dozens executives, pump in a few billion in the network and marketing and you have a new provider.  Sprint is close to turning the corner.  Someone just needs to do it.

 

Masayoshi knows all this.  He didn't spend these billions just turn tail when something else didn't happen just a few months down the road.  He would have to be the biggest imbecile ever, and, all of his money would have been made from luck.  Instead, what is going on, is he wants people to think that he may bail on Sprint.  Maybe even give the impression that Sprint may not even be around if they don't allow Tmo to be absorbed.  As if they are headed for 3 providers anyway.  So they might as well just approve it.  

 

A game of chicken by an Asian billionaire.  I say, call his bluff.  If he gets shut down now, he will pick up the Sprint ball and run with it.  He can turn this puppy around.  He just wants to do it the easier way.  Absorbing Tmo.  It makes the goal in overtaking the first duopoly company within field goal range.  Who wants to storm across the field 100 yards if you can start the game in field goal range?

 

Robert

[Boosted20V]

I wonder what happens when people realize that T-Mo is pricing themselves out of the ability to keep up with infrastructure demands.... and the deal between S/T-Mo falls through. All those subs they "bought" to entice a buyer didn't end up getting the company much by way of revenue and now additional capex is necessary to keep up with demand.

[utiz4321]

He isn't going to walk away from the ~$30 Billion or so he has invested in Sprint no matter what happens with Tmo. Sprint is not a lost cause. Fire a few dozens executives, pump in a few billion in the network and marketing and you have a new provider. Sprint is close to turning the corner. Someone just needs to do it.

 

Masayoshi knows all this. He didn't spend these billions just turn tail when something else didn't happen just a few months down the road. He would have to be the biggest imbecile ever, and, all of his money would have been made from luck. Instead, what is going on, is he wants people to think that he may bail on Sprint. Maybe even give the impression that Sprint may not even be around if they don't allow Tmo to be absorbed. As if they are headed for 3 providers anyway. So they might as well just approve it.

 

A game of chicken by an Asian billionaire. I say, call his bluff. If he gets shut down now, he will pick up the Sprint ball and run with it. He can turn this puppy around. He just wants to do it the easier way. Absorbing Tmo. It makes the goal in overtaking the first duopoly company within field goal range. Who wants to storm across the field 100 yards if you can start the game in field goal range?

 

Robert

Your right so long as Son can't get out 31 billion. This whole thing is starting to remind me of when HP bought palm, lots of talk about webos becoming the center of a new hp until the they hit head winds and have up.

 

I don't think SoftBank is going to drop sprint (I don't think they can get out for anything less than a major haircut) but it is possible. SoftBank has lost 25 billion or so of martlet value over the head winds faced in this merger. That is almost the value of their investment.

[Boosted20V]

Your right so long as Son can't get out 31 billion. This whole thing is starting to remind me of when HP bought palm, lots of talk about webos becoming the center of a new hp until the they hit head winds and have up.

 

I don't think SoftBank is going to drop sprint (I don't think they can get out for anything less than a major haircut) but it is possible. SoftBank has lost 25 billion or so of martlet value over the head winds faced in this merger. That is almost the value of their investment.

 

To go back to Robert's point, I don't think Son has made so much money buying high and selling low.

[S4GRU]

Your right so long as Son can't get out 31 billion. This whole thing is starting to remind me of when HP bought palm, lots of talk about webos becoming the center of a new hp until the they hit head winds and have up.

 

I don't think SoftBank is going to drop sprint (I don't think they can get out for anything less than a major haircut) but it is possible. SoftBank has lost 25 billion or so of martlet value over the head winds faced in this merger. That is almost the value of their investment.

 

If he only bought Sprint if he could end up getting Tmo too, then he is an idiot and deserves to lose billions.  But I don't think he is an idiot.  We will know enough in six more months to probably figure out what he's up to.  I'm willing to gamble to see what he does without a Tmo purchase.  I think I'm more excited to see what he'll do without Tmo than with Tmo.

 

Robert

[Destroyallcubes]

If he only bought Sprint if he could end up getting Tmo too, then he is an idiot and deserves to lose billions.  But I don't think he is an idiot.  We will know enough in six more months to probably figure out what he's up to.  I'm willing to gamble to see what he does without a Tmo purchase.  I think I'm more excited to see what he'll do without Tmo than with Tmo.

 

Robert

What do you think sprint could do with $45 billion , instead of try and buy T-Mobile. Couldn't that be enough to create a filled in network? Plus some to spare to buy more spectrum?

[S4GRU]

What do you think sprint could do with $45 billion , instead of try and buy T-Mobile. Couldn't that be enough to create a filled in network? Plus some to spare to buy more spectrum?

 

Buy a few of the larger regionals, finish building out all cities with 50K plus people and fill in all interstates from sea to sea.  Plus take Spark network wide and deploy beamforming.  Then start buying any and all low frequency spectrum that comes on the market.

 

Robert

[Boosted20V]

What do you think sprint could do with $45 billion , instead of try and buy T-Mobile. Couldn't that be enough to create a filled in network? Plus some to spare to buy more spectrum?

 

That' s a fallacious way of looking at it. Softbank could only (maybe) afford to finance that kind of debt while also having control of T-Mobile's revenue stream. That would have offset much of the debt.

[Destroyallcubes]

Buy a few of the larger regionals, finish building out all cities with 50K plus people and fill in all interstates from sea to sea.  Plus take Spark network wide and deploy beamforming.  Then start buying any and all low frequency spectrum that comes on the market.

 

Robert

In your opinion which do you think would be more beneficial for sprint, a merger, or what is posted in your comment? Obviously time is a factor but both situations will take time.

[Destroyallcubes]

That' s a fallacious way of looking at it. Softbank could only (maybe) afford to finance that kind of debt while also having control of T-Mobile's revenue stream. That would have offset much of the debt.

well that $45 billion would not be all in one transaction but spent over time. So it would allow it to be more feasible money wise. But it would be more realistically be around $20 billion because the T-Mobile debt brings it to $45 billion. But $20 billion is more than enough to buy regionals, and buy low band spectrum.

[S4GRU]

In your opinion which do you think would be more beneficial for sprint, a merger, or what is posted in your comment? Obviously time is a factor but both situations will take time.

 

I don't know if I have an opinion.  I do not have a finance background and don't follow the industry from an earnings perspective.  What I come up with would not likely be a profitable scenario, but would just create a kick ass network.

 

Robert

[bigsnake49]

What do you think sprint could do with $45 billion , instead of try and buy T-Mobile. Couldn't that be enough to create a filled in network? Plus some to spare to buy more spectrum?

It isn't Sprint, it's Softbank. And they are spending it to buy customers.

[twospirits]

I would be worried about if the deal gets shut down, how much is DT going to get in fee's? They got 4+ billion after ATT gave up. All of the Tmobile fanboys keep wanting sprint to go ahead with it and have a huge break up fee. But I think the wise decision would be to buy regional carriers.

 

What do you think sprint could do with $45 billion , instead of try and buy T-Mobile. Couldn't that be enough to create a filled in network? Plus some to spare to buy more spectrum?

 

Buy a few of the larger regionals, finish building out all cities with 50K plus people and fill in all interstates from sea to sea.  Plus take Spark network wide and deploy beamforming.  Then start buying any and all low frequency spectrum that comes on the market.

 

Robert

In reference to the above, I was curious, so I compiled this list of the existing operators that have CDMA2000 / EV-DO / LTE in the US, (compiled from Wikipedia)

Now, not taking Verizon or Cricket Wireless (being sold to AT&T) and only taking those with known subscribers, even if Softbank were to buy them, it would only amount to an increase of 8.88 million for a total of 61.76 subscribers from the existing 54.88.

 

I'm not financially able by any stretch of the imagination but I would think that the ROI won't be great enough to justify being able to buy out these operators. 

 

TS

[Destroyallcubes]

It isn't Sprint, it's Softbank. And they are spending it to buy customers.

I say sprint to distinguish it from the Japanese wireless network.

[S4GRU]

In reference to the above, I was curious, so I compiled this list of the existing operators that have CDMA2000 / EV-DO / LTE in the US, (compiled from Wikipedia)

Now, not taking Verizon or Cricket Wireless (being sold to AT&T) and only taking those with known subscribers, even if Softbank were to buy them, it would only amount to an increase of 8.88 million for a total of 61.76 subscribers from the existing 54.88.

 

I'm not financially able by any stretch of the imagination but I would think that the ROI won't be great enough to justify being able to buy out these operators. 

 

TS

 

Purchasing those providers will not be anywhere near the price of what they paid for Tmo.  Buying every CDMA provider in the country will be less expensive than Tmo.  So the ROI may be there picking up the regionals.  But Sprint would have to get them for the right price.

 

Robert

[bigsnake49]

Purchasing those providers will not be anywhere near the price of what they paid for Tmo.  Buying every CDMA provider in the country will be less expensive than Tmo.  So the ROI may be there picking up the regionals.  But Sprint would have to get them for the right price.

 

Robert

 

The major problem is that USCC might not want to get bought. Or some of the ones run by co-ops

[S4GRU]

The major problem is that USCC might not want to get bought. Or some of the ones run by co-ops

 

They may not.  However, it's hard to interpret the signals of their previous divestments to Sprint.  Just getting rid of non strategic assets, or, is it a sign of something else?  Not much comes out of those walls in the form of gossip.  One thing we do know is that USCC and Sprint obviously have easy lines of communication given what has already transpired between them to date.

 

Robert

[lilotimz]

They may not.  However, it's hard to interpret the signals of their previous divestments to Sprint.  Just getting rid of non strategic assets, or, is it a sign of something else?  Not much comes out of those walls in the form of gossip.  One thing we do know is that USCC and Sprint obviously have easy lines of communication given what has already transpired between them to date.

 

Robert

 

Special USCC subscriber help line for Sprint transaction # = Sprint customer service # 

Special Sprint helpline for USCC subscribers = USCC customer support #

 

[bigsnake49]

They may not.  However, it's hard to interpret the signals of their previous divestments to Sprint.  Just getting rid of non strategic assets, or, is it a sign of something else?  Not much comes out of those walls in the form of gossip.  One thing we do know is that USCC and Sprint obviously have easy lines of communication given what has already transpired between them to date.

 

Robert

 

I would love to see them absorb USCC just like I would have loved for them to have absorbed Alltel. The combo of Alltel/USSC would have given them approximately 18M customers that would have stayed instead of running off to Verizon and AT&T and later on absorbed Leap and Metro. I advocated for them to absorb Leap and Metro before T-Mobile got them. But Sprint never listened to me.

Edited February 10, 2014 by bigsnake49

[Boosted20V]

I would love to see them absorb USCC just like I would have loved for them to have absorbed Alltel. The combo of Alltel/USSC would have given them approximately 18M customers that would have stayed instead of running off to Verizon and AT&T and later on absorbed Leap and Metro. I advocated for them to absorb Leap and Metro before T-Mobile got them. But Sprint never listened to me.

To Hesse's credit, he wanted Metro but the board said "NO!".

[bigsnake49]

Now, I was definitely surprised at the timing of this potential merger. Why now? Wait until you have at least NV 1.0 and  800MHz overlay. What's the hurry? Are you trying to preempt Dish? 

Edited February 10, 2014 by bigsnake49

[Rawvega]

In reference to the above, I was curious, so I compiled this list of the existing operators that have CDMA2000 / EV-DO / LTE in the US, (compiled from Wikipedia)

 

FWIW, they would not necessarily have to limit themselves to CDMA carriers. VZW has purchased GSM carriers before and GSM based carriers have purchased CDMA carriers (i.e. T-mobile buying MetroPCS, AT&T buying Cricket & CDMA assets of Alltel, etc.).