Grubman: Dish/Sprint Numbers Don’t Add Up to Shareholder Value

[maximus1987/lou99]

Okay, guys, what makes you think that the FCC would allow Ergen to flip his bankrupt S-band satellite spectrum converted to AWS-4 terrestrial spectrum to AT&T or VZW for a nice profit? The FCC basically gave LightSquared and Dish special treatment as a means of increasing wholesale access and/or competition in the mobile industry. Allowing the duopoly to grab AWS-4 would have just the opposite effect.

 

So, I would not be the least bit surprised to see the FCC stick it to Ergen: "Charlie, you are the one who wanted terrestrial mobile spectrum. Well, we let you have it. Now, you actually have to do something with it, not just sell it."

 

So, you disagree with me? You had better be able to justify your reasoning...

 

AJ

 

If Charlie wanted to sell the spectrum and merge with DirectTV all along, the FCC can't force him to spend billions to launch service.

 

If they do try that, he can sit on the spectrum for 6 years until the FCC can reclaim it in a big FU to the FCC.

 

Isn't it better to get it in ATT's productive hands than keep it fallow for 6 years?

[jefbal99]

Sorry if this is a dumb question and sorry if there was a post somewhere with this very question... but can someone explain to me what PCS, AWS means? Pros/Cons for each of them? I kind of know that lower band frequencies are better for building penetration and distance and the higher frequencies are for short distance and better in regards to speed(?). If there was a post, a link would be great so i can read up on it. Thanks.

PCS is in the 1900Mhz range for up and down links, AWS is split between 1700Mhz downlink and 2100Mhz uplink (i might have those reversed).  They share very similar propagation characteristics.

 

The sub1Ghz spectrum is where you really see propagation changes.  The old 850Mhz cellular that Red/Blue use, and the 700Mhz rebranded TV spectrum can travel much further and deeper into buildings.  The SMR spectrum that Sprint is using in the  800Mhz band will be much better for rural areas and much better for urban areas for penetration than current PCS.

[Keitarou]

PCS is in the 1900Mhz range for up and down links, AWS is split between 1700Mhz downlink and 2100Mhz uplink (i might have those reversed).  They share very similar propagation characteristics.

 

The sub1Ghz spectrum is where you really see propagation changes.  The old 850Mhz cellular that Red/Blue use, and the 700Mhz rebranded TV spectrum can travel much further and deeper into buildings.  The SMR spectrum that Sprint is using in the  800Mhz band will be much better for rural areas and much better for urban areas for penetration than current PCS.

 

So all PCS and AWS are either ranges of frequencies or a particular frequency?

[bigsnake49]

PCS is in the 1900Mhz range for up and down links, AWS is split between 1700Mhz downlink and 2100Mhz uplink (i might have those reversed).  They share very similar propagation characteristics.

 

The sub1Ghz spectrum is where you really see propagation changes.  The old 850Mhz cellular that Red/Blue use, and the 700Mhz rebranded TV spectrum can travel much further and deeper into buildings.  The SMR spectrum that Sprint is using in the  800Mhz band will be much better for rural areas and much better for urban areas for penetration than current PCS.

Yeah you have the AWS links reversed.

[maximus1987/lou99]

 

 

PCS is in the 1900Mhz range for up and down links, AWS is split between 1700Mhz downlink and 2100Mhz uplink (i might have those reversed). They share very similar propagation characteristics.

 

The sub1Ghz spectrum is where you really see propagation changes. The old 850Mhz cellular that Red/Blue use, and the 700Mhz rebranded TV spectrum can travel much further and deeper into buildings. The SMR spectrum that Sprint is using in the 800Mhz band will be much better for rural areas and much better for urban areas for penetration than current PCS.

 

 

 

So all PCS and AWS are either ranges of frequencies or a particular frequency?

A simple Wikipedia search will answer your questions.

[jefbal99]

So all PCS and AWS are either ranges of frequencies or a particular frequency?

 

Its wikipedia, but here is UHF spectrum in the US http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultra_high_frequency

 

 

Yeah you have the AWS links reversed.

Damnit, I always do that...

[ChadBroChillz]

If Charlie wanted to sell the spectrum and merge with DirectTV all along, the FCC can't force him to spend billions to launch service.

 

If they do try that, he can sit on the spectrum for 6 years until the FCC can reclaim it in a big FU to the FCC.

 

Isn't it better to get it in ATT's productive hands than keep it fallow for 6 years?

 

How is it an FU to the FCC? FCC reclaims it, then uses it to sell to another party. That looks like free money to me. Possibly use it to for mobile spectrum in the future. That would be a big FU to Charlie. Dish is the only one that losses from being forced to sit on the spectrum until it is taken away from him.

 

Building up the Duopoly is the last thing the FCC wants to do, even if it means letting Dish sit on the spectrum.

[dedub]

If USCellular is retreating and selling off spectrum, does that make them a better or worse potential target for dish to scoop up and use their network?

[bigsnake49]

Its wikipedia, but here is UHF spectrum in the US http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultra_high_frequency

 

 

Damnit, I always do that...

 

So you're slightly FDD dyslexic .

[maximus1987/lou99]

 

 

If Charlie wanted to sell the spectrum and merge with DirectTV all along, the FCC can't force him to spend billions to launch service.

 

 

If they do try that, he can sit on the spectrum for 6 years until the FCC can reclaim it in a big FU to the FCC.

 

 

Isn't it better to get it in ATT's productive hands than keep it fallow for 6 years?

 

 

 

How is it an FU to the FCC? FCC reclaims it, then uses it to sell to another party. That looks like free money to me. Possibly use it to for mobile spectrum in the future. That would be a big FU to Charlie. Dish is the only one that losses from being forced to sit on the spectrum until it is taken away from him.

 

Building up the Duopoly is the last thing the FCC wants to do, even if it means letting Dish sit on the spectrum.

If Charlie does nothing, FCC has to wait 6 years until it can reclaim it. That's the FU.

[bigsnake49]

If USCellular is retreating and selling off spectrum, does that make them a better or worse potential target for dish to scoop up and use their network?

 

Neither. I guess Dish can scoop up USCC, Leap and CSpire as well as some real small rural carriers and try to piece a network together. They can use white spaces spectrum to provide fixed broadband to rural and exurban customers, although I don't see why Sprint won't sell them spectrum in the EBS band in those same rural and exurban areas.

[WiWavelength]

The PCS and AWS questions probably should be moved out of this thread.  I will try to find a better existing spot for them.

 

AJ

[maximus1987/lou99]

 

 

If USCellular is retreating and selling off spectrum, does that make them a better or worse potential target for dish to scoop up and use their network?

In my opinion, the issue is moot since Dish never wanted to actually launch a network but to bid for Sprint and Clearwire to drive up the price for his spectrum. Then he would merge with DirecTV.

But to answer your question, Sprint was happy to host Dish's spectrum in an arrangement similar to Lightsquared. And if that we're really Charlie's intentions, it'd be already happening.

[maximus1987/lou99]

 

 

 

If USCellular is retreating and selling off spectrum, does that make them a better or worse potential target for dish to scoop up and use their network?

 

 

Neither. I guess Dish can scoop up USCC, Leap and CSpire as well as some real small rural carriers and try to piece a network together. They can use white spaces spectrum to provide fixed broadband to rural and exurban customers, although I don't see why Sprint won't sell them spectrum in the EBS band in those same rural and exurban areas.

Really? I see why: cause Dish screwed Sprint and cost them $3billion in cash infusion from SoftBank and Dish cost Softbank $1.5billion

 

THAT is why Sprint-Bank should never TALK to Dish ever again.

[ChadBroChillz]

If Charlie does nothing, FCC has to wait 6 years until it can reclaim it. That's the FU.

 

That is a very small FU. That is like Dish saying "well I didn't want it anyways."  The FCC would still be the winner, plus wouldn't dish face strict fines and fees for not meeting build out requirements? If that is the case, then it would make the FCC an even bigger winner.

[bigsnake49]

Really? I see why: cause Dish screwed Sprint and cost them $3billion in cash infusion from SoftBank and Dish cost Softbank $1.5billion

 

THAT is why Sprint-Bank should never TALK to Dish ever again.

 

Well, if they can get some money out of them, who cares? When you don't need the spectrum and you're paying good money for those leases, you might swallow those feelings.

[WiWavelength]

If USCellular is retreating and selling off spectrum, does that make them a better or worse potential target for dish to scoop up and use their network?

 

Too many people seem not to realize that USCC has very limited market clusters scattered around the country.  USCC has a large core in the Midwest, then smaller groupings in the Northeast, Southeast, and Northwest.  And those clusters (now, minus Chicago and St. Louis) include very few major markets:  Milwaukee, Tulsa, Omaha, Knoxville.  Off the top of my head, those are USCC's only top 100 markets.

 

If Dish is going to pursue a multiple play option for its mobile spectrum, then Ergen would prefer to acquire or piggyback on an existing network that is already in many/most major markets.

 

AJ

[maximus1987/lou99]

 

 

 

 

 

If Charlie does nothing, FCC has to wait 6 years until it can reclaim it. That's the FU.

 

 

That is a very small FU. That is like Dish saying "well I didn't want it anyways." The FCC would still be the winner, plus wouldn't dish face strict fines and fees for not meeting build out requirements? If that is the case, then it would make the FCC an even bigger winner.

 

I don't think there's fines, only reclamation.

You don't think holding spectrum fallow for years is a big deal? Remember SoectrumCo and their 20MHz of AWS? They bought it in 2006 and did nothing with it. Then they sold it to Verizon.

[WiWavelength]

I don't think there's fines, only reclamation.

 

Cancelation of licenses and confiscation of spectrum amount to a whopping big fine.

 

AJ

[bigsnake49]

 

In my opinion, the issue is moot since Dish never wanted to actually launch a network but to bid for Sprint and Clearwire to drive up the price for his spectrum. Then he would merge with DirecTV.

 

But to answer your question, Sprint was happy to host Dish's spectrum in an arrangement similar to Lightsquared. And if that we're really Charlie's intentions, it'd be already happening.

 

No, Dish wanted Sprint to host their spectrum but wanted it done under their terms, which is they would repay Sprint with capacity on Dish's hosted spectrum. Sprint wanted to get paid up front and then have an option to purchase capacity. 

[maximus1987/lou99]

 

 

 

 

In my opinion, the issue is moot since Dish never wanted to actually launch a network but to bid for Sprint and Clearwire to drive up the price for his spectrum. Then he would merge with DirecTV.

 

 

But to answer your question, Sprint was happy to host Dish's spectrum in an arrangement similar to Lightsquared. And if that we're really Charlie's intentions, it'd be already happening.

 

 

No, Dish wanted Sprint to host their spectrum but wanted it done under their terms, which is they would repay Sprint with capacity on Dish's hosted spectrum. Sprint wanted to get paid up front and then have an option to purchase capacity.

Link please.

[ericdabbs]

Link please.

 

I think Sprint wanted Dish to comply to similar terms to the Lightsquared spectrum hosting agreement where Dish would pay Sprint to host their spectrum but Sprint would also have the ability to purchase capacity on that spectrum.  So if you understand the Lightsquared agreement then you can assume that the proposed terms would be similar for a Dish and Sprint hosting agreement.  I don't think there is an article that specifically explains the exact reason the talks broke down.  People on this forum just speculate that Ergen didn't want to comply to some reasonable term that Sprint was requesting since it wasn't favorable to Dish.

[maximus1987/lou99]

Dish already has the spectrum to do home broadband without Clearwire.

 

 

"MVDDS spectrum (214 licenses) is held by 11 companies, but the largest chunks are owned by three, South.com (an affiliate of Dish Network) with 37 areas, DTV Norwich (an affiliate of Cablevision) with 46 areas, and MDS Operations (an affiliate of MDS America) with 80 areas.^[4][5]

In 2012 DIsh Network acquired Cablevision's areas making Dish Network the largest owner of MVDDS spectrum in the US. ^[6]"

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MVDDS

 

And the service is already commercially trialing under the brand called OMGFAST!

http://www.omgfast.com/index.php

 

 

"Cablevision launches 'OMGFAST' fixed wireless broadband service in Florida"

Read more: Cablevision launches 'OMGFAST' fixed wireless broadband service in Florida - FierceWireless http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/cablevision-launches-omgfast-fixed-wireless-broadband-service-florida/2012-07-18#ixzz2XpSDILHv 
Subscribe at FierceWireless

[supert0nes]

If USCellular is retreating and selling off spectrum, does that make them a better or worse potential target for dish to scoop up and use their network?

 

I wouldn't call US Cellular's latest moves retreating, in the US Cellular thread we have been thinking something like this would have to happen for a few months.  They needed to focus their spectrum holdings and liquidate the spectrum in markets they couldn't utilize.  They seem to be getting very good value.  In the markets where US Cellular serves, they have a very nice spectrum portfolio and should offer up nice balance sheets should they be acquired in the near future.

 

Whoever acquires them will have to divest some bands and possibly align technologies, though.  That's probably all I should say about US Cellular in this thread.