600 MHz auction results posted and transition schedule

[Scott]

http://www.phonearena.com/news/Report-FCC-auction-of-600MHz-spectrum-draws-to-a-close-with-winners-to-be-named-in-March_id90171 they will be announcing the winners on March first. Only getting $17.7 billion total.

 

I think it's premature to put an actual number on the total bid because I think the auction is still ongoing. It has reached the minimum, which just means the auction will close when the current stage of bidding ends, which will be when there are no further bids in any market. Bidding was scheduled to go until 4pm ET today and continue on Monday, if needed. I have not seen anything that has said bidding has ended yet.

 

I welcome Trip (or someone else) to correct me if I'm wrong.

[kg4icg]

No the 4th round is the final, the Auction is over

 

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[Scott]

No the 4th round is the final, the Auction is over

 

Yes the fourth stage (to use the proper terminology) is the end of the auction, I'm not arguing that. My point is that the fourth stage isn't over yet. Bidding in the fourth stage is still going on (as explained in the link in my last post), unless it ended today but I can't find anything indicating that it has.

[Trip]

Yes the fourth stage (to use the proper terminology) is the end of the auction, I'm not arguing that. My point is that the fourth stage isn't over yet. Bidding in the fourth stage is still going on (as explained in the link in my last post), unless it ended today but I can't find anything indicating that it has.

 

This is correct.  Bidding is on-going.

 

- Trip

[Scott]

This is correct.  Bidding is on-going.

I thought that was the case. Thanks for confirming, Trip.

[ericdabbs]

Spectrum Gateway put out some interesting maps regarding the 600 MHz auction in terms of outlining cost vs. demand.

 

http://www.spectrumgateway.com/600-mhz-spectrum

[Fraydog]

http://www.fiercecable.com/broadcasting/fcc-waives-quiet-period-auction-rules-for-broadcasters

 

Whoa, Pai just said eff the quiet period rules. Gonna be interesting to see how the last rounds of this auction go now. 

 

Personally, I don't think Pai gives a care about T-Mobile and Sprint and this is just one way he is going to push them together. 

[belusnecropolis]

http://www.fiercecable.com/broadcasting/fcc-waives-quiet-period-auction-rules-for-broadcasters

 

Whoa, Pai just said eff the quiet period rules. Gonna be interesting to see how the last rounds of this auction go now. 

 

Personally, I don't think Pai gives a care about T-Mobile and Sprint and this is just one way he is going to push them together. 

I believe this applies only to the TeeVee stations that were auctioning spectrum. I think they want to get to manufacturing newer hardware for their transition away from current channel placement.

 

 

the FCC has waived the quiet period rules that barred broadcasters from discussing auction activity with one another.

 

...

 

 ...broadcasters’ assessments regarding main and auxiliary RF operations, structural analysis and possible interruption of collocated radio broadcasting have brought up questions of reimbursement timing, “since most manufacturers and services companies will require down payments to begin processing orders and scheduling service resources.”

 

“[ERI] asked the IATF to provide more transparency with regard to the expected processing times for cost reimbursement submissions and the availability of funds, particularly at the beginning of the transition,” Meleski wrote.

 

[greenbastard]

So this auction wasn't a failure like some had hoped?

[Arysyn]

So this auction wasn't a failure like some had hoped?

People who accuse others of having fantasies, had fantasized on their own for the failure of this auction, yet now see their own fantasy has failed them. Now they'll go back to watching Seinfeld to get over their loss...

[WiWavelength]

So this auction wasn't a failure like some had hoped?

 

Nope, the 600 MHz auction has been a relative failure.  It has cleared far less spectrum than was originally hoped.  And it was on the cusp of being an abject failure -- until the most recent round when there was a wholly unexpected shift in supply and demand.

 

AJ

[kg4icg]

I knew the auction was a flop from what my sister, who works for the FCC in being that she is with the division that does the financial collections for auctions. For a grand total of 17.7 billion dollars

 

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[Trip]

I knew the auction was a flop from what my sister, who works for the FCC in being that she is with the division that does the financial collections for auctions. For a grand total of 17.7 billion dollars

 

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Flop is, of course, a relative term here.  If AWS-3 hadn't adjusted people's expectations skyward, this auction would be considered a huge success.  It's already raised more than almost any other auction other than AWS-3, and bidding is on-going.

 

 

Nope, the 600 MHz auction has been a relative failure.  It has cleared far less spectrum than was originally hoped.  And it was on the cusp of being an abject failure -- until the most recent round when there was a wholly unexpected shift in supply and demand.

 

AJ

 

I'm inclined to disagree.  While there were certainly people who would have liked to see 126 MHz reallocated, the fact of the matter is that given the market-based mechanism behind it, broadcasters would have had to believe their businesses to be worth very little money to make that number work.  You can find plenty of analysts and experts who argued 84 MHz was the "sweet spot" going back several years.  The FCC allowed 126 (then 114, and 108) to go forward because it didn't want to pre-judge the market, not because it necessarily looked like those numbers were going to be feasible.

 

When you say things like "than was originally hoped", the necessary follow-up is "says who?"  Different people "hoped" different things.  I can rattle off lists of people who wanted 126, people who wanted 84, and people who wanted the whole thing to collapse.

 

- Trip

[Hmight]

Flop is, of course, a relative term here.  If AWS-3 hadn't adjusted people's expectations skyward, this auction would be considered a huge success.  It's already raised more than almost any other auction other than AWS-3, and bidding is on-going.

 

 

I'm inclined to disagree.  While there were certainly people who would have liked to see 126 MHz reallocated, the fact of the matter is that given the market-based mechanism behind it, broadcasters would have had to believe their businesses to be worth very little money to make that number work.  You can find plenty of analysts and experts who argued 84 MHz was the "sweet spot" going back several years.  The FCC allowed 126 (then 114, and 108) to go forward because it didn't want to pre-judge the market, not because it necessarily looked like those numbers were going to be feasible.

 

When you say things like "than was originally hoped", the necessary follow-up is "says who?"  Different people "hoped" different things.  I can rattle off lists of people who wanted 126, people who wanted 84, and people who wanted the whole thing to collapse.

 

- Trip

uhh....It was a flop.  Let's face the facts.  Former FCC Chairman sold this auction like it was the "mother" of all auctions to the broadcasters and the demand was just not there for them from the carriers.  I can quote you a lot of analysts who expected this auction to generate a crap load of billions.  Noone, I mean NOONE expected the auction to get less than 20B.  To deny that this auction was not a flop is living beyond your reality. 

[Trip]

Yes, and those analysts were influenced by the results of AWS-3.  After that auction ended, all the estimates went up to account for this great jump in value from AWS-3.  As I said previously, if not for AWS-3, this would have been considered a success.

 

And as far as the Chairman is concerned, I remind you that one of the largest concerns were that supply-side participation (from broadcasters) would be diminished.  Of course he was going to sell it as a big deal to get them to come to the table.  Wouldn't you?

 

You are, of course, entitled to your opinion. 

 

- Trip

[Hmight]

Yes, and those analysts were influenced by the results of AWS-3.  After that auction ended, all the estimates went up to account for this great jump in value from AWS-3.  As I said previously, if not for AWS-3, this would have been considered a success.

 

And as far as the Chairman is concerned, I remind you that one of the largest concerns were that supply-side participation (from broadcasters) would be diminished.  Of course he was going to sell it as a big deal to get them to come to the table.  Wouldn't you?

 

You are, of course, entitled to your opinion. 

 

- Trip

 

Sir,

 

1. My opinion is shared by many who spoke on hindsight, just like you are.

2. The broadcasters were pretty much got screwed by the FCC and Wheeler.  From being sold on the auction extravaganza to the 39 month timeline to move their airwaves.  

3. This spectrum is far more valuable than the AWS auction.  To say that this auction is still a success, excluding the AWS auction is just plain wrong.  Wheeler should have seen the demand was just not there.  Especially carriers just spent a crap load to acquire spectrum. 

[bigsnake49]

Sir,

 

1. My opinion is shared by many who spoke on hindsight, just like you are.

2. The broadcasters were pretty much got screwed by the FCC and Wheeler.  From being sold on the auction extravaganza to the 39 month timeline to move their airwaves.  

3. This spectrum is far more valuable than the AWS auction.  To say that this auction is still a success, excluding the AWS auction is just plain wrong.  Wheeler should have seen the demand was just not there.  Especially carriers just spent a crap load to acquire spectrum. 

 

I agree with you on the timing of this auction. Came too soon after AWS-3 where carriers spend a boatload of money. I also think that Trip is right that the AWS-3 auction was an aberration driven by Dish's desire to make their spectrum and the company itself appear much more valuable. But it back fired on Dish. With mini macros and small cells, not to mention LTE-U, the economics of the market have changed and spectrum has been devalued.

Edited February 8, 2017 by bigsnake49

[Fraydog]

It is NOT that 600 MHz was a flop. It is just that AWS-3 was completely inflating expectation to levels that were ridiculous. That inflation was due to Dish over inflating AWS-3 values.

 

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[ericdabbs]

I'm inclined to disagree. While there were certainly people who would have liked to see 126 MHz reallocated, the fact of the matter is that given the market-based mechanism behind it, broadcasters would have had to believe their businesses to be worth very little money to make that number work. You can find plenty of analysts and experts who argued 84 MHz was the "sweet spot" going back several years. The FCC allowed 126 (then 114, and 108) to go forward because it didn't want to pre-judge the market, not because it necessarily looked like those numbers were going to be feasible.

 

When you say things like "than was originally hoped", the necessary follow-up is "says who?" Different people "hoped" different things. I can rattle off lists of people who wanted 126, people who wanted 84, and people who wanted the whole thing to collapse.

 

- Trip

I was highly shocked when the FCC first said that they would clear 126 MHz and figurwd that it would fizzle when it actually came to bidding.

I agree with you that 84 mhz is actually the sweet spot within the 600 mhz band without having to dodge around Ch 37. I think the resulting seven 5x5 blocks is good enough considering that some broadcasters were unwilling to give up their spectrum and get to keep their channels for all the TV loving folks. The bottom line is that more low band spectrum will be available for the carriers to further bulild their LTE network and that is a plus for everyone.

 

AWS-3 auction set some very unrealistic expectations for how much money it could raise especially dish network who tried to play with the big boys but ultimately failed when it defaulted on 3.3 billion of its AWS-3 spectrum.

 

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[Arysyn]

I'm going to say something I hope will not be taken out of context here, as some people take things too seriously. Also, I'm not going to quit giving my opinions on wireless. I realize a few here are sensitive to ideas, referring them as "fantasy" and/or attacking, criticizing, insulting, teliing those who give opinion to "shut up", etc.

 

Being negative towards idea proposals and against those who do, is not productive. I know nany here prefer to discuss factual state of business issues within wireless, and that is fine. Yet, so is giving ideas and opinions to things based on a person's perspective of wireless. Don't like reading a certain style of writing, just skip reading it, even though you could be missing something that may be important, and/or you find yourself agreeing with.

 

Either way, no need for negativity, especially with what I'm about to say here. Many of you might remember my suggestion for Sprint to sell or trade their PCS spectrum, either to lessen it for more money to spend on band 41 network densification, or for Sprint to swap it for a larger block. My only gripe with Sprint's network, besides the need for Sprint to densify its band 41 network, was its 5x5 PCS, which at the time was mainly 5x5.

 

Since that time, Sprint has swapped PCS spectrum in many areas, which the timing was unique in conjunction with my post ????, though I seriously doubt my suggestions had that kind of impact. Anyways, I've read that Sprint's PCS now is 10x10 in alot of areas, including in the Chicago market, which back when it was 5x5, speeds got way below 3mbps, often even under 1mbps. It was awful, especially considering the lack of honest help from Sprint's subpar in-store representatives, who couldn't even manage a proper presentation of the devices sold in these corporate Sprint stores.

 

Well, I, like many others here, are glad for any improvement Sprint might make, and they have, despite Sprint deciding to cut spending and not taking action on their much needed band 41 network densification projects, in their antipation for a potential merger with T-Mobile. Yet in the meanwhile, there are things Sprint could be doing.

 

One particular thing I wondered in going back to what I wrote in the beginning of this post, what if Sprint sold a bunch of its PCS spectrum to the other carriers, in exchange for cooperation for Sprint getting the 600mhz spectrum. Keeping in mind had this happened some months ago. Sprint could have bid and won the 120mhz of the 600mhz spectrum, which is what I read it was originally estimated to be at. Then Sprint would have been in the unique position of having a tremendous amount of low-end abd high-end spectrum they'd just need to densify the heck out of and it would have a network that would be both intensely far-reaching, penetrable, high-speed, and full of capacity.

[EvanA]

 

 

One particular thing I wondered in going back to what I wrote in the beginning of this post, what if Sprint sold a bunch of its PCS spectrum to the other carriers, in exchange for cooperation for Sprint getting the 600mhz spectrum. Keeping in mind had this happened some months ago. Sprint could have bid and won the 120mhz of the 600mhz spectrum, which is what I read it was originally estimated to be at. Then Sprint would have been in the unique position of having a tremendous amount of low-end abd high-end spectrum they'd just need to densify the heck out of and it would have a network that would be both intensely far-reaching, penetrable, high-speed, and full of capacity.

Besides the fact that this doesn't really matter at this point, it wouldn't have worked. There's no incentive for other carriers to just allow Sprint to suck up spectrum. They all have decent midband portfolios and were looking at 600MHz to bolster their low end. Furthermore, midband spectrum is very important in a cellular network because it is a good compromise between coverage area and capacity. Divesting midband would be a poor idea.

 

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[Joski1624]

My fear is that another spectrum auction will happen again in another decade once wireless providers have determined that they need more spectrum. Though I'm personally not thrilled with a sizeable chunk of UHF television spectrum being pulled from broadcasters again, I am hopeful that a repack this time around will be more efficient now that analog is not a factor. My question for broadcasters is how they are going to roll out ATSC 3.0

[Dkoellerwx]

One particular thing I wondered in going back to what I wrote in the beginning of this post, what if Sprint sold a bunch of its PCS spectrum to the other carriers, in exchange for cooperation for Sprint getting the 600mhz spectrum. Keeping in mind had this happened some months ago. Sprint could have bid and won the 120mhz of the 600mhz spectrum, which is what I read it was originally estimated to be at. Then Sprint would have been in the unique position of having a tremendous amount of low-end abd high-end spectrum they'd just need to densify the heck out of and it would have a network that would be both intensely far-reaching, penetrable, high-speed, and full of capacity.

 

This is why your posts get labeled as fantasy. As nice as all that sounds, as someone else pointed out, there is no way it could have happened, or even would have been allowed to happen. The other carriers would not have allowed Sprint to scoop all 120Mhz (or whatever was available). The trade for PCS to 600 would not have been comparable. 

[Arysyn]

This is why your posts get labeled as fantasy. As nice as all that sounds, as someone else pointed out, there is no way it could have happened, or even would have been allowed to happen. The other carriers would not have allowed Sprint to scoop all 120Mhz (or whatever was available). The trade for PCS to 600 would not have been comparable.

There is a big difference between what I wrote and fantasy. My mention, as I clearly stated, was thoughts I admitted were not goung to happen. Fantasy is usually when a person is pushing for something to happen that has absolutely no chance of happening, and this is beyond giving ideas, thoughts, opinions, and the like. Basically meaning the person is pushing through a false, impossible agenda they believe is absolutely going to happen, or in which they believe they can literally create a secondary world where this can happen seperately from reality.

 

Thus, I've never once made any claim to this. AJ once suggested I play "fantasy wireless" ala fantasy sports, which actually is kinda impossible since fantasy sports involves the idea of taking real names of actual players and teams to a trading system, or so the most I know of it - I actually detest sports, but I won't go into that now. Fantasy wireless would be too complex and I have no desire to even try. Accusing me of doing so is a personal attack anyways, and doesn't lead to productivity on this site.

[Fraydog]

Besides the fact that this doesn't really matter at this point, it wouldn't have worked. There's no incentive for other carriers to just allow Sprint to suck up spectrum. They all have decent midband portfolios and were looking at 600MHz to bolster their low end. Furthermore, midband spectrum is very important in a cellular network because it is a good compromise between coverage area and capacity. Divesting midband would be a poor idea.

 

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If anything I'd argue that Sprint and T-Mobile should hold onto midband like crazy if they do merge. 

 

Personally, I am of the view that with 5G spectrum coming up to bat, that Sprint and T-Mobile should be forced to divest nothing at all. What will really happen, likely is that additional spectrum over 225 MHz would get divested. If Sprint comes in with the potential to deploy 20x20 in PCS and AWS in large cities, then that's already going to push the theoretical max of spectrum to 800 Mbps without even throwing in B41 given deployment of 256 QAM and 4x4 MIMO. And even on 2x2 and 64 QAM existing handsets, the speed level would be up to 300 Mbps. Considering that handsets should very soon be able to do TD-FDD carrier aggregation, the potential exists that the merged carrier could be the fastest not just in America but also the world.