Q4 2013 results

[digiblur]

You can count on Roger Cheng to play down anything significant Sprint does. http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57618698-94/sprint-posts-$1b-in-q4-losses-as-it-ekes-out-customer-gains/

 

Not sure if you listened to the QA at the end where they talked about losing feature phones.  Once the transcript comes out, it is worth the read.  I was expecting worse numbers than this though so I'll give them a thumbs up on that one.

[digiblur]

Did anyone read the FY 2013 numbers? Across the year, Sprint still lost 2.285 million subscribers. That's pretty astounding.

 

Most have been reading the spin so far instead of actually looking at the numbers. 

[jamisonshaw125]

Wow! Was not expecting that at all.

[Boosted20V]

Did anyone read the FY 2013 numbers? Across the year, Sprint still lost 2.285 million subscribers. That's pretty astounding.

 

And if it weren't for the tablets, they would have lost 408,000 subscribers for the quarter. The only problem with replacing phone subscribers with tablet ones is that the ARPU is cut in half for those subscribers.

 

In FY2013 they shut down Nextel. Everyone knows they dropped many subs after shutting them down. This is nothing new. Also, ARPU was historically high in spite of tablet growth.

[Conan Kudo]

Most have been reading the spin so far instead of actually looking at the numbers. 

I generally ignore the spin and look at the numbers. Doing direct comparisons on a quarterly basis myself paints a more accurate picture than what Sprint's "spin" says. The spin sounds nice, but the numbers look pretty bad.

 

In FY2013 they shut down Nextel. Everyone knows they dropped many subs after shutting them down. This is nothing new. Also, ARPU was historically high in spite of tablet growth.

 

Hesse has noted that disconnects/port outs are ongoing by business customers even after that. The after-effects of the Nextel shutdown have not settled yet.

 

ARPU has been high because in spite of the losses, the majority of Sprint subs are still on the pricier Simply Everything plans. The My Way plans launched last year pushed many of the legacy non Simply Everything users to move up to My Way, which pushed ARPU up even more.

[Boosted20V]

I generally ignore the spin and look at the numbers. Doing direct comparisons on a quarterly basis myself paints a more accurate picture than what Sprint's "spin" says. The spin sounds nice, but the numbers look pretty bad.

 

You don't seem to ignore T-Mo spin. Guess it depends whose lips it flows off of.

[Paynefanbro]

HTC M8 might be supporting the two carrier aggregation. An HTC device went to the bluetooth SIG but is was for AT&T, Verizon, and AT&T. Perhaps Sprint gets theirs out a bit later. Would we know if the device supports two carrier aggregation when it hits the FCC?

 

http://www.phonearena.com/news/Is-HTC-0P6BXXX-the-M8-If-yes-the-new-flagship-may-be-headed-to-Verizon-AT-T-and-T-Mobile_id52454

[Conan Kudo]

You don't seem to ignore T-Mo spin. Guess it depends whose lips it flows off of.

I ignore everyone's spin. If you look at T-Mobile's numbers on a quarterly basis, it looks pretty damn good from Q1 2013 onward. Prior to that, T-Mobile's subscribers were weak, its ARPU was weak, its churn was horrible, but it was still profitable. T-Mobile pushed itself into debt in 2Q'13 with the acquisition charge from merging with MetroPCS, but it returned to astounding subscriber growth over the course of FY 2013.

[RichardXy]

They admitted the postpaid adds were pretty much all tablets.  I was wondering why they were practically giving those things away.

When you take out the tablet numbers, they lost 400,000 customers. I would think that most tablet customers already have Sprint service so in essence aren't tablet activations already existing Sprint customers?

[bigsnake49]

Did anyone read the FY 2013 numbers? Across the year, Sprint still lost 2.285 million subscribers. That's pretty astounding.

 

And if it weren't for the tablets, they would have lost 408,000 subscribers for the quarter. The only problem with replacing phone subscribers with tablet ones is that the ARPU is cut in half for those subscribers.

 

Verizon's and AT&T's adds were mostly due to tablets as well. That's the trend, get used to it. Tablets, connected cars, etc.

[Conan Kudo]

When you take out the tablet numbers, they lost 400,000 customers. I would think that most tablet customers already have Sprint service so in essence aren't tablet activations already existing Sprint customers?

Not necessarily. Tablets are an easy gateway to sell service because monthly rates are low, and if the carrier is subsidizing them, they can keep the subscriber until the contract expires (under normal circumstances).

 

And people do want tablets. "Cheap" tablets are what consumers want, as the HP TouchPad firesale showed.

[Rawvega]

I ignore everyone's spin. If you look at T-Mobile's numbers on a quarterly basis, it looks pretty damn good from Q1 2013 onward. 

 

Including the net $$$ losses the last two quarters?

[Conan Kudo]

Including the net $$$ losses the last two quarters?

The net losses on cash isn't good, as I acknowledged that T-Mobile did push itself into debt with the MetroPCS merger. I'm curious to see how 4Q results and the VZ 700MHz transaction will affect the FY 2013 financials for TMUS.

[bigsnake49]

ARPU was up to $64.07. That is excellent!

[Conan Kudo]

The big news is that Sprint is shifting its financial and operating calendar to begin on April 1, in accordance to the directive that all SoftBank controlled companies follow (it is popular financial/operating calendar restart period in Japan because the first quarter starts out very well in the entertainment and electronics industries during this period).

[IamMrFamous07]

Im worried about q1 2014...with the tmobile contract buy offer, im going to expect a major loss

[bigsnake49]

The net losses on cash isn't good, as I acknowledged that T-Mobile did push itself into debt with the MetroPCS merger. I'm curious to see how 4Q results and the VZ 700MHz transaction will affect the FY 2013 financials for TMUS.

 

DT absorbed much of the Metro debt itself to make T-Mobile's financials look better. 

 

If going forward, T-Mobile and Sprint just cannibalize each other, that is is not sustainable and I don't think that that's what the feds want. I don't see the gains that T-Mobile made to be sustainable. The other ones match it and it results in a stalemate. The only way T-Mobile and Sprint compete against the big two is through either consolidation or network sharing. They just don't have the wherewithal individually to compete with the other two. At least not on the scale. If they networked shared, it might reduce their overhead susbtantially and they might be able to make the investments necessary to compete.

 

One nugget to come out of this is that it does not look like Sprint will be participating in the AWS auctions. They will be looking for lower frequency spectrum.

[Fraydog]

TMUS is cannibalizing AT&T which certainly counts as one of the duopoly.

[S4GRU]

If you read the details, this is not good news. It's probably the worst report I've ever seen the past 3 years. It's a lot of bad news, and a few nuggets of hope. But I don't think Masayoshi is looking to jump ship or commit harikari.

 

As for the source, I went back and read his correspondence. He did not say they would report losing over 2 Million subs for the quarter. He said that in the newest report for Q4, Sprint was going to report a loss of over 2 Million subs. I assumed that it was the quarterly number, but it turned out to be the annual number ending the quarter. So the source didn't fail in so much as I did. I should have asked the obvious follow up question. I will do better next time.

 

Sprint saw the numbers were going to be bad and did the great tablet giveaway as a means to boost the numbers artificially. It was done to save face and be able to spin the story and continue the recovery. It probably was a very wise thing to do. Can you imagine what even we would be saying this morning if the tablet adds were not in here? It would be pandemonium!

 

Robert via Samsung Note 8.0 using Tapatalk Pro

 

 

[cdk]

TMUS is cannibalizing AT&T which certainly counts as one of the duopoly.

 

Is there any solid evidence that a majority of TMUS growth has come from AT&T?

[COZisBack]

It would be pandemonium!

 

Robert via Samsung Note 8.0 using Tapatalk Pro

 

Unfortunately, I think it still is. Sheesh.

[Fraydog]

http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/sprint-beats-analyst-expectations-477000-new-subscribers-q4/2014-02-11

 

The postpaid churn numbers increasing is not a good sign. Sprint has to over the next year reduce the postpaid churn numbers to below 2 points and ultimately below where TMUS postpaid churn sits at 1.7%.

 

If Sprint is able to accelerate NV and increase TD-LTE coverage to 150 MM POP by the end of 2014it would be worth it even if it meant further losses.

[amcferrin90]

It would be interesting to see the subscriber changes broken up by geography. I know where I am in the country and where my market is affects my perception of Sprint's business. I'm very curious to see what effect the TMO EFT payoff has on subscribers. 

[Rawvega]

Earnings call transcript:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2011071-sprint-ceo-discusses-q4-2013-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single

Sent from my SM-N900P using Tapatalk
 

[IamMrFamous07]

So when can we officially expect a turnaround for sprint? 2014 is supposed to be sprints year but I feel 2015-2016 is more appropriate

 

 

Didn't SoftBank say they have a "secret weapon" to get sprint on top?