Softbank - New Sprint - Discussion

[Boosted20V]

Looks like DT is pushing for a valuation of T-Mobile in the vicinity of what ATT was willing to pay. I can't see paying $50+ Billion for T-Mobile. What a mess.

[jamisonshaw125]

Looks like DT is pushing for a valuation of T-Mobile in the vicinity of what ATT was willing to pay. I can't see paying $50+ Billion for T-Mobile. What a mess.

I don't think SoftBank would even consider putting that much into the merger especially with already taking on sprints debt load.... I am not to fond of the merger anymore.... I still think that primary focus should just be completing network vision but putting it on turbo charge mode and getting it DONE!!

[Boosted20V]

I don't think SoftBank would even consider putting that much into the merger especially with already taking on sprints debt load.... I am not to fond of the merger anymore.... I still think that primary focus should just be completing network vision but putting it on turbo charge mode and getting it DONE!!

 

I misspoke in my earlier post. The ATT merger valuation was $39 billion. Apparently, DT is asking in that range:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-19/deutsche-telekom-says-t-mobile-value-returns-to-at-t-deal-levels.html?cmpid=yhoo

[jamisonshaw125]

What would it actually take to make Tmobile and Sprint compatible with each other? Time frame? Cost$$???

[Johnner1999]

I suspect near zero break up fee and sell for $22billion (cash stock swap) and by the time it goes to the Feds - sprint will post a mega huge bad quarter. As leverage to merge.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[IamMrFamous07]

Can sprint theoritically just buy Tmobile's edge only towers and just convert them to network vision sites with 2.5?

[khammondnm]

Can sprint theoritically just buy Tmobile's edge only towers and just convert them to network vision sites with 2.5?

Why would they do only that? If Sprint wants more rural coverage, what I'm assuming you implying they would gain by buying their edge only towers, they can just put their network on those towers and pay the lease to the tower owner. I don't quite see what you are getting at?

 

Sent from my Nexus 5

 

 

[newgroundsguru]

Will network vision come with data roaming? I love driving north of Tucson and getting Verizon 1X until i get back into town.

[jamisonshaw125]

Will network vision come with data roaming? I love driving north of Tucson and getting Verizon 1X until i get back into town.

pretty sure if your plan includes data roaming you will continue to have it. However if you can get 800 LTE then you might not even need it

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[newgroundsguru]

pretty sure if your plan includes data roaming you will continue to have it. However if you can get 800 LTE then you might not even need it

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

I mean on EVDO not 1xRTT.. Also no, I have the HTC one and live to close to the border so no 800 for this cowboy.

[WiWavelength]

Will network vision come with data roaming? I love driving north of Tucson and getting Verizon 1X until i get back into town.

 

Network Vision is the infrastructure deployment.  It is not a service plan nor a PRL, both of which define roaming permissions.

 

AJ

[ericdabbs]

So, since Dish withdrew from the Lightsquared sweepstakes, what is their wireless play right now? If Sprint wants to merge with T-Mobile, they will need to create the illusion of a fourth competitor. So do they sell Dish, T-Mobile's network after of course they start hosting T-Mobiles frequencies on their own sites? They could start hosting Dish's frequencies on T-Mobiles's sites right away (of course it will take time) and then cut-over when the Sprint network is ready to host T-Mobiles spectrum. I believe they will need to divest spectrum and they might as well divest EBS to Dish. Sprint might get a few billion dollars out of the deal to help pay for T-Mobile.

 

I would love to see Sprint divest most to all of its EBS to Dish that is not necessary.  However that may satisfy Dish and part of the FCC concerns.  I was just curious what your opinion is if these discussions become serious and Verizon and AT&T throwing a fit and throwing fuel into the fire.  How should Verizon and AT&T be dealt with since most likely all they want is spectrum concessions?

 

Tmobile will have to remain separate even if a transaction goes through until both companies can complete their LTE nationwide rollout.  Sprint couldn't divest all of Tmobile's AWS spectrum anyways nor should they.  I feel that AWS spectrum is still valuable for mid band.

[mozamcrew]

I would love to see Sprint divest most to all of its EBS to Dish that is not necessary.  However that may satisfy Dish and part of the FCC concerns.  I was just curious what your opinion is if these discussions become serious and Verizon and AT&T throwing a fit and throwing fuel into the fire.  How should Verizon and AT&T be dealt with since I know for sure all they want is spectrum concessions?

 

Tmobile will have to remain separate even if a transaction goes through until both companies can complete their LTE nationwide rollout.  Sprint couldn't divest all of Tmobile's AWS spectrum anyways nor should they.  I feel that AWS spectrum is still valuable for mid band.

 

To me there is little sense in divesting the EBS spectrum because it WON'T satisfy the FCC (there's a reason it's not included in the spectrum screen). If I thought that divesting down to about 100Mhz of EBS/BRS (from as much as 200Mhz in some markets) would allow them to keep 40-60Mhz more midband spectrum then it might be worth contemplating.

 

IMHO, the relative value of higher frequency spectrum will increase over time as cell networks become more dense. Low frequency spectrum is important for economically covering large areas and in building signal. Frankly, Sprint only needs more of it because they don't have a full 7x7 of 800 or a 6x6 700Mhz block in every market nation wide. As cell networks get denser to deal with increasing data usage, the things that make 2.6Ghz spectrum less valuable (propagation) are suddenly an advantage, not a disadvantage.

[bigsnake49]

I would love to see Sprint divest most to all of its EBS to Dish that is not necessary.  However that may satisfy Dish and part of the FCC concerns.  I was just curious what your opinion is if these discussions become serious and Verizon and AT&T throwing a fit and throwing fuel into the fire.  How should Verizon and AT&T be dealt with since most likely all they want is spectrum concessions?

 

Tmobile will have to remain separate even if a transaction goes through until both companies can complete their LTE nationwide rollout.  Sprint couldn't divest all of Tmobile's AWS spectrum anyways nor should they.  I feel that AWS spectrum is still valuable for mid band.

 

None of either AT&T nor Verizon are starved for spectrum. They both have 850 and PCS spectrum that can be refarmed. Leap's spectrum will augment AT&T's in secondary markets. They also have WCS and B&E lower 700MHz, There are couple of AWS auctions. They will be OK.

 

The other thing that needs to be considered is what is Carlos Slim going to do? He could acquire Dish and all of its spectrum after Dish acquires T-Mobile's network. He has about 22 Million customers spread  over all the networks. He can transfer a lot of the them to his own network. 

 

 

It's all high stakes poker. 

Edited January 22, 2014 by bigsnake49

[bigsnake49]

To me there is little sense in divesting the EBS spectrum because it WON'T satisfy the FCC (there's a reason it's not included in the spectrum screen). If I thought that divesting down to about 100Mhz of EBS/BRS (from as much as 200Mhz in some markets) would allow them to keep 40-60Mhz more midband spectrum then it might be worth contemplating.

 

IMHO, the relative value of higher frequency spectrum will increase over time as cell networks become more dense. Low frequency spectrum is important for economically covering large areas and in building signal. Frankly, Sprint only needs more of it because they don't have a full 7x7 of 800 or a 6x6 700Mhz block in every market nation wide. As cell networks get denser to deal with increasing data usage, the things that make 2.6Ghz spectrum less valuable (propagation) are suddenly an advantage, not a disadvantage.

 

A combined T-Mobile/Sprint even with just BRS will have a hell of a lot spectrum still. 

[ericdabbs]

To me there is little sense in divesting the EBS spectrum because it WON'T satisfy the FCC (there's a reason it's not included in the spectrum screen). If I thought that divesting down to about 100Mhz of EBS/BRS (from as much as 200Mhz in some markets) would allow them to keep 40-60Mhz more midband spectrum then it might be worth contemplating.

 

IMHO, the relative value of higher frequency spectrum will increase over time as cell networks become more dense. Low frequency spectrum is important for economically covering large areas and in building signal. Frankly, Sprint only needs more of it because they don't have a full 7x7 of 800 or a 6x6 700Mhz block in every market nation wide. As cell networks get denser to deal with increasing data usage, the things that make 2.6Ghz spectrum less valuable (propagation) are suddenly an advantage, not a disadvantage.

 

I didn't say that divesting EBS spectrum only would be enough to satisfy FCC but would be a good step in helping to create a 4th carrier.  I would just imagine that Dish, Verizon and ATT will be throwing in their hat for "we are against this merger" and Dish probably could be bought off with EBS divestitures.  What I was more eluding to in my previous post is how to appease Verizon and especially AT&T's oppositions to the merger.  Believe me AT&T will not forget what Sprint's role was in the opposition of the AT&T/Tmobile merger in 2011 in what ultimately lead to the FCC decision to negate the AT&T/Tmobile merger.

[ericdabbs]

None of either AT&T nor Verizon are starved for spectrum. They both have 850 and PCS spectrum that can be refarmed. Leap's spectrum will augment AT&T's in secondary markets. They also have WCS and B&E lower 700MHz, There are couple of AWS auctions. They will be OK.

 

The other thing that needs to be considered is what is Carlos Slim going to do? He could acquire Dish and all of its spectrum after Dish acquires T-Mobile's network. He has about 22 Million customers spread  over all the networks. He can transfer a lot of the them to his own network. 

 

 

It's all high stakes poker. 

 

I think we all understand here at S4GRU that Verizon and AT&T are not starved for spectrum but you know they will raise hell when an announcement of a Sprint/Tmobile merger is announced because it does help bridge the gap and make them pretty competitive customers numbers wise to the Big 2 and not to mention that they will have a very competitive spectrum portfolio to produce 10x10 to 15x15 LTE carriers if they don't have PCS or AWS divestitures.

 

Verizon and AT&T will file pleads to the FCC against this merger that Sprint has way too much spectrum (Sprint+ Clearwire+Tmobile/MetroPCS) in its portfolio especially because they will point to the fact that Sprint obtained 160 MHz during the Clearwire transaction.  Now the FCC can choose to ultimately rule that the claims that Verizon and AT&T will have no merit but still that is going to prolong the process.  Not to mention that Dish might be an arse by trying to bid for Tmobile to drive up the price.

[WiWavelength]

Sprint-T-Mobile should not divest any BRS/EBS spectrum. Rather, it should agree to sell wholesale TD-LTE access to all comers. VZ and AT&T have held dominant positions in special access lines for decades. It would only be fair for Sprint-T-Mobile to gain the upper hand in wholesale LTE capacity. Tit for tat.

 

AJ

[Nickel]

Sprint-T-Mobile should not divest any BRS/EBS spectrum. Rather, it should agree to sell wholesale TD-LTE access to all comers. VZ and AT&T have held dominant positions in special access lines for decades. It would only be fair for Sprint-T-Mobile to gain the upper hand in wholesale LTE capacity. Tit for tat.

 

AJ

Uh oh, Brian Klug and Neal are gnashing their teeth over "TD-LTE", you better watch your back, AJ.

[WiWavelength]

Uh oh, Brian Klug and Neal are gnashing their teeth over "TD-LTE", you better watch your back, AJ.

Where is this gnashing taking place?

 

AJ

[Nickel]

Where is this gnashing taking place?

 

AJ

Oh? did you miss this?

http://twitter.com/Det_Conan_Kudo/status/414886976580378625

[S4GRU]

[WiWavelength]

Oh? did you miss this?

http://twitter.com/Det_Conan_Kudo/status/414886976580378625

Blah, blah, blah. Neal and Brian can go suck it. I sure as hell am not typing LTE FDD and LTE TDD every time. FDD is the more popular configuration, so it gets no qualifier. TDD is less popular, so it gets the qualifier: TD-LTE. Done.

 

AJ

[Johnner1999]

I don't think vzw will say much of anything. Except maybe demand 650mhz

 

Sent from my LG-LS980 using Tapatalk

 

 

[irev210]

I don't think vzw will say much of anything. Except maybe demand 650mhz

 

Sent from my LG-LS980 using Tapatalk

 

Oh, you are nuts.  VZN would love the deal because they would target PCS and/or AWS.

 

Son is going to make an offer for T-Mobile purely for the subs and marketing.

 

I am sure Son sees the potential of Sprint+T-Mobile to offer the scale needed to take on VZN/AT&T and prevent a price war blowing up between S/TMUS - Win-Win for Son.

 

I don't think this is good for consumers because we'll be basically left with two choices - AT&T/VZN or Sprint.  Sprint will always be priced JUST below AT&T/VZN (which are priced right on top of each other).

 

That will become the status quo and the recent spat of price wars, plan innovations, etc will abruptly end.  So, VZN and AT&T will continue their 40+% margins and Sprint will be happy in 3rd place at 35% margins.

 

Bottom line, a merger would be a huge lose for consumers which makes me really wonder what they'll have to do to get the DOJ to approve it.

 

Maybe T-Mobile is extremely smart, negotiate another awesome breakup fee and collect another billion in cash to build out their new A block spectrum once the merger faces too many regulatory hurdles to clear.