T-Mobile LTE & Network Discussion

[WiWavelength]

T-mobile may be the smallest now but with some of their recent Ventures, Solavei & "uncarrier" stance i expect to see some growth for T-mobile & perhaps an interesting new twist in the wireless industry; considering they do have deploy-able spectrum to grow with.

 

By that rationale, though, AT&T should have been allow to acquire T-Mobile because AT&T needs room to grow and innovate, too. That is just playing right into AT&T's accusations of federal regulators picking winners and losers.

 

T-Mobile is currently a loser, so regulators try to level the playing field and let T-Mobile gain a spectrum advantage? Is that what you/we want?

 

AJ

[Mobilesolutions]

 

 

By that rationale, though, AT&T should have been allow to acquire T-Mobile because AT&T needs room to grow and innovate, too. That is just playing right into AT&T's accusations of federal regulators picking winners and losers.

 

T-Mobile is currently a loser, so regulators try to level the playing field and let T-Mobile gain a spectrum advantage? Is that what you/we want?

 

AJ

 

No, I'd like it to be a equal playing field for all the carriers. But that's not happening now and it won't happen unil Sprint and T-Mobile both gain market share from Verizon/ At&t.

[bigsnake49]

The investment in the S-band has worked out for Dish so far in that it was able to get FCC approval for LTE use and got 3GPP approval which is a win in itself. This makes the S-band spectrum valuable. Whether Dish decides to use it build out a LTE network or sell the S-band spectrum, Dish will have made a profit on it.

 

Who is going to buy that spectrum from Dish. Dish wanted a partner but did not want to put money upfront and instead wanted to pay with capacity. Well, neither Sprint nor T-Mobile, after the merger, want to create a potential competitor. AT&T may have wanted to buy it, but they seem to be picking up plenty of 700MHz spectrum from Verizon and with their WCS purchases seem to be doing OK. They might or might not be interested. Sprint might have been interested before but only if Dish put up some money up front.

 

As I have said many times, I'm all for Sprint taking their 55MHz of BRS out of Clearwire and selling the rest to Dish. Then merge with T-Mobile, thereby creating a very viable competitor to the Big Two. At some point they do need to get some sub 1GHz spectrum, but that's just around the corner.

[Deval]

The investment in the S-band has worked out for Dish so far in that it was able to get FCC approval for LTE use and got 3GPP approval which is a win in itself. This makes the S-band spectrum valuable. Whether Dish decides to use it build out a LTE network or sell the S-band spectrum, Dish will have made a profit on it.

 

Yeah, but they only have a finite amount of time to deploy before they get fined, or lose it?

[ericdabbs]

Who is going to buy that spectrum from Dish. Dish wanted a partner but did not want to put money upfront and instead wanted to pay with capacity. Well, neither Sprint nor T-Mobile, after the merger, want to create a potential competitor. AT&T may have wanted to buy it, but they seem to be picking up plenty of 700MHz spectrum from Verizon and with their WCS purchases seem to be doing OK. They might or might not be interested. Sprint might have been interested before but only if Dish put up some money up front.

 

As I have said many times, I'm all for Sprint taking their 55MHz of BRS out of Clearwire and selling the rest to Dish. Then merge with T-Mobile, thereby creating a very viable competitor to the Big Two. At some point they do need to get some sub 1GHz spectrum, but that's just around the corner.

 

The S-band spectrum is still valuable in a sense that it can be used for LTE deployment. That is a huge contrast to the L-band spectrum that Lightsquared owned that is basically useless. Sure Dish can demand a huge premium for it and scare the major wireless carriers from wanting to bid for it but if push came to shove, if Dish does not do anything with that spectrum they would either just eat the cost of buying the spectrum and never deploy it or just fire sale it to at least get back their original cost and maybe a small premium. Dish in my opinion has more to lose than anybody. Charlie still thinks he can play hardball and bully the other wireless carriers to coming to his terms. Little does he know that none of the major carriers have any interested in helping him since they are all busy building out their own LTE networks to compete. The sentiment that the major carriers are displaying thus far for their interest in S-band spectrum indicate that Dish has no leverage but that does not mean its not valuable. S-band spectrum is located in nice frequency that has decent propagation and capacity that would be hugely beneficial to any network. All the wireless carriers have made significant spectrum acquisitions recently Verizon (SpectrumCo AWS spectrum deal), ATT(bought Echostar 700 MHz E-block spectrum, 700 MHz B-block from Verizon, WCS spectrum LTE approval), Tmobile (MetroPCS deal), Sprint (Softbank and Clearwire deal) so purchasing additional spectrum in S-band from any of the wireless carriers at this point would be highly scrutinized.

 

A deal for Tmobile/MetroPCS is not going to happen even after Tmobile and MetroPCS goes public for a few years. That is just a pipe dream. The US wants to have 4 major competitors in the market to compete for consumers. Sprint has a better chance of snatching up Cricket before they can snatch up Tmobile/MetroPCS. Analysts can weigh in and stuff and think that Sprint will eventually buy out Tmobile/MetroPCS but I don't see that happening now assuming Tmobile/MetroPCS doesn't fall into an abyss.

 

As for Clearwire, I would like to see Sprint definitely hold onto all of the 55 MHz of BRS spectrum and some EBS spectrum. Although I am not too sure if Softbank would be too thrilled if they just bought Clearwire knowing that they would access to a huge swath of 2.5 GHz of spectrum only to divest 75% of it away despite the complications with EBS leases. Also I don't know if it will be that easy to just sell the majority of EBS spectrum to Dish. Dish is not stupid and does realize that it is intensely fragmented all over the US and would have to deal with all the EBS leases.

[ericdabbs]

Yeah, but they only have a finite amount of time to deploy before they get fined, or lose it?

 

All spectrum has a finite amount of time for deployment or else lose it so the S-band is not any different. The point is that S-band spectrum is still useful spectrum given that it has been blessed by the FCC and 3GPP for LTE use. Yes there are no antennas or radios that are built to take advantage of this spectrum currently but Sprint didn't have any of that either when it decided to use the PCS G block and ESMR spectrum for LTE. Its possible and it will be done for whoever plans to use the S-band spectrum.

[Deval]

All spectrum has a finite amount of time for deployment or else lose it so the S-band is not any different. The point is that S-band spectrum is still useful spectrum given that it has been blessed by the FCC and 3GPP for LTE use. Yes there are no antennas or radios that are built to take advantage of this spectrum currently but Sprint didn't have any of that either when it decided to use the PCS G block and ESMR spectrum for LTE. Its possible and it will be done for whoever plans to use the S-band spectrum.

 

Very true, just thinking at practical applications of the spectrum.

 

Back on topic though, as someone who basically spends their entire life in an urban area, I wouldn't mind test driving T-Mobile's network once they complete the AWS/PCS swap. Not that I would ever give up my Sprint phone, but it would be interesting to see how their network holds up.

[bigsnake49]

Very true, just thinking at practical applications of the spectrum.

 

Back on topic though, as someone who basically spends their entire life in an urban area, I wouldn't mind test driving T-Mobile's network once they complete the AWS/PCS swap. Not that I would ever give up my Sprint phone, but it would be interesting to see how their network holds up.

 

If Metro runs the network, it will have very good coverage for the areas they cover. They are right up there with Verizon in Florida as far as their PCS coverage is concerned.

[Deval]

If Metro runs the network, it will have very good coverage for the areas they cover. They are right up there with Verizon in Florida as far as their PCS coverage is concerned.

 

Really? That surprises me because here Metro is barely a blip.

[iansltx]

Really? That surprises me because here Metro is barely a blip.

 

+1 on MetroPCS's network in Florida. Have several extended family members that either used them in the past or still use them, and have never heard about any issues from them.

 

Of course, if you're out of MetroPCS's coverage area then you're roaming on Sprint, but there are worse things (like being out of T-Mobile's 3G coverage area and running on GPRS).

 

I'd say the easiest way to get a T-Mobile line to play with is to wait until the Nexus 4 gets re-certified for LTE (I still think it'll happen sooner rather than later), then grab both it and a plan from a T-Mobile MVNO; I hear that they'll all get LTE (just as Sprint's MVNOs have) and they're a bit cheaper than T-Mobile branded service.

[Deval]

+1 on MetroPCS's network in Florida. Have several extended family members that either used them in the past or still use them, and have never heard about any issues from them.

 

Of course, if you're out of MetroPCS's coverage area then you're roaming on Sprint, but there are worse things (like being out of T-Mobile's 3G coverage area and running on GPRS).

 

I'd say the easiest way to get a T-Mobile line to play with is to wait until the Nexus 4 gets re-certified for LTE (I still think it'll happen sooner rather than later), then grab both it and a plan from a T-Mobile MVNO; I hear that they'll all get LTE (just as Sprint's MVNOs have) and they're a bit cheaper than T-Mobile branded service.

 

Yeah, that sounds like a good idea. I'm just throwing thoughts around in my head on how the other side works. I know Verizon works great here, and T-Mo was decent.

[WiWavelength]

If Metro runs the network, it will have very good coverage for the areas they cover. They are right up there with Verizon in Florida as far as their PCS coverage is concerned.

Really? That surprises me because here Metro is barely a blip.

+1 on MetroPCS's network in Florida.

 

MetroPCS runs a fundamentally PCS 1900 MHz network in Florida that is roughly five years more mature than its exclusively AWS 2100+1700 MHz network in NYC. So, the disparity should come as little surprise.

 

AJ

[bigsnake49]

MetroPCS runs a fundamentally PCS 1900 MHz network in Florida that is roughly five years more mature than its exclusively AWS 2100+1700 MHz network in NYC. So, the disparity should come as little surprise.

 

AJ

 

Metro basically are on every site that Verizon is, whereas Sprint skipped quite a few.

[WiWavelength]

Metro basically are on every site that Verizon is, whereas Sprint skipped quite a few.

 

MetroPCS understands its core constituency -- and I say this not as a slight but as a statement of fact -- there are a disproportionate number of sub prime consumers in Florida. Thus, MetroPCS, as only a regional carrier, has been able to concentrate its efforts in Florida, arguably more so than anywhere else. As a truly national carrier, Sprint does not have that luxury. That said, this is why I have championed regional carriers that are able to narrow their deployments and better serve their respective areas. But many here cannot wait for the likes of MetroPCS, USCC, and Cricket to succumb to acquisition.

 

AJ

[Rawvega]

 

But many here cannot wait for the likes of MetroPCS, USCC, and Cricket to succumb to acquisition.

 

AJ

 

I imagine that's because many see it as an inevitability given the sheer volume of other regionals that have been swallowed up over the years. Thus, if it's a given that these regionals can't survive and thrive on their own, most probably would want to see the smaller nationals (i.e. Sprint and T-Mobile) do the acquiring rather than the AT&T/Verizon duopoly. The lesser of two evils...

 

Sent from my PG41200 using Tapatalk HD

[ericdabbs]

The problem I see is that the trend for cell phone use has changed in the last few years from primarily using it for voice to data usage. Since more and more people are getting smartphones for mainly the data usage portion that means that fast data speeds are important. With the invention of LTE that can deliver broadband internet speeds on the go, it relies heavily on the amount of spectrum a carrier has and wider channels for each LTE carrier. Unfortunately these smaller regional carriers do not have sufficient spectrum to support the broadband speeds that the 4 major carriers can deliver. Therefore consumers flock to the 4 major carriers that can deliver them the broadband speeds and coverage that they so covet. This is why I believe the smaller carriers like Cricket and US Cellular will eventually be scooped up since they can't compete with the big boys.

 

In the early 2000s before the iPhone and 4G speeds, the regional carriers can compete because the cell phone was primarily used for voice and data was an after thought. Since voice does not require a huge amount of spectrum, the regional carriers could compete with the major carriers without a problem and their major selling point was probably price. Now the idea of paying 70-80 dollars/month for cell phone service turned from a shock in 2006 to a norm in 2013. People are now willing to pay double the price of cell phone charges as an accepted norm to get broadband speed data service.

 

So to sum it up, the two major factors you can say that can lead to the regional carriers demise are 1) cell phone usage priority has been shifted from primarily voice to data and 2) amount of spectrum needed to support broadband data speeds require a lot more spectrum due to wider channels which regional carriers do not have plenty of in the first place.

[Fraydog]

http://cl.ly/1T3G3Z1g331j

 

Here's a link to the presentation by PSAM on why investors should, in their opinion, vote down the T-Mobile MetroPCS merger as proposed. Only disappointing thing in my opinion is no mention of network technologies.

[Paynefanbro]

Investors are really against this merger! I wonder why.

[WiWavelength]

Investors are really against this merger! I wonder why.

 

Mo' money mo' money mo'...

 

AJ

[Fraydog]

In my humble opinion, the PSAM presentation made a pretty effective case against the merger as is. If DT doesn't reduce the debt and the interest rate, how are they going to enhance their network in the US?

[WiWavelength]

In my humble opinion, the PSAM presentation made a pretty effective case against the merger as is. If DT doesn't reduce the debt and the interest rate, how are they going to enhance their network in the US?

 

Deutsche Telekom does not really want to enhance its network in the US. Competing against VZW and AT&T is too difficult, so DT just wants an out. This is that opportunity.

 

AJ

[Deval]

I think DT just wants to get out of the US market completely, and the new T-Mobile just wants to keep their market share in the markets they are core in. They are not looking to expand on their native coverage, just fill and upgrade their core areas.

[Fraydog]

All in one document (warning link is exceptionally long as it contains all of DT's essential financial data)

 

Yet, if you look at the DT Capital Markets Day presentation, the US is a bigger growth market economically than Europe is right now. I think wanting out is dumb, but then again it is DT we are talking about here.

 

Who's going to want to buy if AT&T can't? Verizon is out for the same reasons AT&T is. That leaves SoftBank.

 

I think it's a matter of time. The gravity of it is too big, and spectrum arguments be damned.

[bigsnake49]

All in one document (warning link is exceptionally long as it contains all of DT's essential financial data)

 

Yet, if you look at the DT Capital Markets Day presentation, the US is a bigger growth market economically than Europe is right now. I think wanting out is dumb, but then again it is DT we are talking about here.

 

Who's going to want to buy if AT&T can't? Verizon is out for the same reasons AT&T is. That leaves SoftBank.

 

I think it's a matter of time. The gravity of it is too big, and spectrum arguments be damned.

 

I know for a fact that there are multiple Sprint/Softbank teams looking at the T-Mobile merger from all angles. Does that means it happens? No, but they are doing their due diligence and are quite serious about it.

 

That's why selling Clearwire's network to Dish as a condition of a Sprint/Tmobile merger makes total sense. It creates a 4th competitor for the FCC and DOJ to point to. A combined Sprint/Tmobile entity will have plenty of spectrum in the PCS and AWS bands and does not need EBS/BRS spectrum. I hope the FCC/DOJ force the combined entity to offer service in rural areas as a condition of the merger.

Edited April 9, 2013 by bigsnake49

[Fraydog]

bigsnake, I always thought the SMR block would be a stumbling block for a Sprint/T-Mobile merger, but now that Scalable UMTS has entered the building...

 

http://3g4g.blogspot.com/2013/02/scalable-umts-s-umts-to-accelerate-gsm.html?goback=%2Egde_1888232_member_214087984

 

I thoroughly believe that this could be a big aid to a combined Sprint/Softbank/T-Mobile.