Jump to content

Northeast Blizzard, Jan. 2015


Dkoellerwx

Recommended Posts

Okay people, not to defend meteorologist because I'm the first one to say they are the only profession where they can be wrong 100% of the time and still have a job, but lets be fair and real here.

In regards to NYC,

Ok. You brought up my most hated phrase in existence (second only maybe to 'how about that global warming huh?"). Meteorologists are never. Never wrong 100% of the time. Not even 50% of the time. 70-90% of the time 48 hour forecasts are more or less correct. That number varies on the region, but if we were wrong 50% of the time, you can bet we would be out of a job.

 

1-yeah they may have over-hyped it a bit, but its better to be safe than sorry. First if I am not mistaken they were using an existing model that predicted such high totals. There is a newer model that I believe CNN was also testing that hit the numbers right on the mark and they said that they will be using that from now on.

Not sure where that came from... CNN doesn't have any models that they own. The Weather Channel doesn't even have their own forecast model. They may be referring to the RPM, which is owned by WSI, but it was still giving NYC 20-30 inches of snow up until about 9pm last night. Then it came to reality and dropped numbers off significantly west of central Long Island.

 

Regardless, I rather have them be a bit over hyped and scare us than not. There are countless stories of idiots not heeding the warnings of not going out, driving etc and getting stuck, into accidents that make it hard to clear the streets of snow, no matter how much fell.

Agree to that

 

2-Yeah Manhattan didn't get much and most news is reporting on that one place. woopie freaking do. NYC is not just Manhattan, there are 4 other boroughs that are larger and got hit much harder. Shoot, here in Queens I took out a ruler and it was exactly 19 inches. And that's not counting the snow drifts. Granted, 19 inches is nothing compared to places like the northwest, but they are used to it. Over here 2 inches  and folks freak out like roaches scattering when the lights go on.

Funny how that works, isn't it. It missed Manhattan, so it's a totally busted forecast right?! Ha.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just to say the models they have are made from humans. Humans make mistake so what. If they did not shut down these things, and the storm was worse and people died, then they would still get crap. Here in Texas for example We can be scheduled for 2 inches of rain and it be 34 degrees outside. And the model think The temperatures will drop to below 32, but dont. So instead of a crippling Ice storm, we get all rain, or reverse. The forecast rely on going certain routes. If a storm is 50 miles west or east the impacts are worse or less in some areas. But I have learned Winter storms can be very difficult to predict, especially here in Texas where 1-2 degrees can be the difference between shut down the city, and cold rains.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well. If it snowed in south Florida, half the population would just die the second snow hit. Fortunately, we are just getting a ton of wind and beautiful blue sky's. People down south where I used to live were out boating today lol...

 

 

Sent from my iPhone 6 using Crapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Welp, it wasn't that bad. Shoveling snow out of my driveway for the second time in the same week sucked, but at least this time I didn't do it alone (one of my roommates helped out, which made it much quicker and easier). I only saw 4 inches of snow where I was, so I didn't get much of the fabled "20-40 inches of snow" we were originally supposed to get.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ok I admit, that 100% is a over-hyped, sorry. It should be 90%  :P

I kid, I kid,   :devil:

 

And yeah I do remember the weather guy saying something about RPM, but can't for the life of me remember what the other model was. Either way, both models got Boston correct. If it wasn't because Mother nature pushed the storm 25 miles east, it would be a totally different story here in NYC.  

Personally I just don't see how folks out in the upper mid west deal with it. 

 

TS 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ok I admit, that 100% is a over-hyped, sorry. It should be 90%  :P

I kid, I kid,   :devil:

 

And yeah I do remember the weather guy saying something about RPM, but can't for the life of me remember what the other model was. Either way, both models got Boston correct. If it wasn't because Mother nature pushed the storm 25 miles east, it would be a totally different story here in NYC.  

Personally I just don't see how folks out in the upper mid west deal with it. 

 

TS

The challenge is the best part ;)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just to say the models they have are made from humans.

 

Yeah, I like my models made from humans.

 

They are better than those Japanese robot women.

 

Uncanny-Robot1.jpg

 

AJ

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well. If it snowed in south Florida, half the population would just die the second snow hit. Fortunately, we are just getting a ton of wind and beautiful blue sky's. People down south where I used to live were out boating today lol...

 

 

Sent from my iPhone 6 using Crapatalk

Us Midwesterners laugh when it snows down south. Like every year when Atlanta gets 1" of snow or a few tenths of an inch of ice, the whole city shuts down, cars get abandoned on roads, and people die. It always looks like a scene from "The Walking Dead" on the news.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I saw a guy dressed like Bigfoot walking down Washington St. in Boston yesterday during the storm. Everybody in the coffee shop was taking his picture.

 

For the weather, wrong mythological creature.  Yeti or abominable snowman.

 

AJ

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...