Grubman: Dish/Sprint Numbers Don’t Add Up to Shareholder Value

[Fraydog]

Also this mobile video from the Hoppah you guys were talking about is from Dish buying up Slingmedia and running that company into the ground. Totally killed my urge to buy another Slingbox. The same will happen with Sprint. How many Voom channels do you have left on Dish? Oh wait... The history repeated itself.

 

Sent from my little Note2

 

 

A Voom reference. Totally forgot about that. I am pretty salty about how that went down. Fact is I'm now trying to get Mom to switch off Dish to something else. The problem is, she wants to stay on Dish so she doesn't have to learn new channel numbers.

[MacinJosh]

Also this mobile video from the Hoppah you guys were talking about is from Dish buying up Slingmedia and running that company into the ground. Totally killed my urge to buy another Slingbox. The same will happen with Sprint. How many Voom channels do you have left on Dish? Oh wait... The history repeated itself.

 

Sent from my little Note2

 

 

What the heck is Voom? Never heard of it before. And I didn't know that Dish bought Slingmedia. How sad!

 

 

Sent from Josh's iPhone 5 using Tapatalk 2

[peteyz24]

What the heck is Voom? Never heard of it before. And I didn't know that Dish bought Slingmedia. How sad!

 

 

Sent from Josh's iPhone 5 using Tapatalk 2

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voom_HD_Networks

 

I had the same question.  After I started reading that wiki page I started to remember seeing Voom advertisements in magazines and such.

[supersanborn]

Great read. I still remember Dish's big plans to revive the failing Blockbuster by...well..."we'll get back to you on that."

 

Needless to say, we see how great things turned out there.

[JeffDTD]

I still dont understand why Ergen didnt push those blockbuster self service kiosks like mad as soon as he got control. Of course, that would have required him renegotiate movie studio contracts and invest heavily in infrastructure... Nightmares for a penny pinching lunatic who cant stomach anyone else making money

 

Sent from my Note II. Its so big.

 

 

[Fraydog]

I still dont understand why Ergen didnt push those blockbuster self service kiosks like mad as soon as he got control. Of course, that would have required him renegotiate movie studio contracts and invest heavily in infrastructure... Nightmares for a penny pinching lunatic who cant stomach anyone else making money

 

Sent from my Note II. Its so big.

 

 

His other competitors are not afraid to invest (cable and DirecTV) and they're all growing at a faster clip. Shame is, the Hopper is good technology. If that was run by anyone else I'd be rooting for it big time.

[maximus1987/lou99]

What a waste. Sprint lost $3bil cash infusion, SoftBank lost $1.5bil to make Dish go away and Dish gained nothing except an even more pissed off Sprint that will NEVER host their AWS-4.

 

And now Sprint is GUARANTEED to get 50+45/2=72.5 of the Clearwire shares no matter what!

 

[oversight]

What a waste. Sprint lost $3bil cash infusion, SoftBank lost $1.5bil to make Dish go away and Dish gained nothing except an even more pissed off Sprint that will NEVER host their AWS-4.

 

And now Sprint is GUARANTEED to get 50+45/2=72.5 of the Clearwire shares no matter what!

 

If you can't win, inflict as much pain on your opponent as they take you down.

[Keitarou]

What a waste. Sprint lost $3bil cash infusion, SoftBank lost $1.5bil to make Dish go away and Dish gained nothing except an even more pissed off Sprint that will NEVER host their AWS-4.

 

And now Sprint is GUARANTEED to get 50+45/2=72.5 of the Clearwire shares no matter what!

 

And guess who will pay for all that money being thrown around making the other people rich.... that's right... you and me.

[maximus1987/lou99]

It turns out Charlie knew what he was doing:

 

"If Jerry Seinfeld was to do one of his "AHA MOMENT" episode endings staring into the camera, he would end the show with, "So all you really wanted was $4 billion more for the spectrum to sell to AT&T so you could get a better deal merging DISH with DirecTV (DTV) Charlie! Wise Man!" And DISH shares are starting to reflect his wisdom:"

 

http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/1526602

[maximus1987/lou99]

And ATT will be an eager buyer: 20x20 MHz of a proprietary band.

Add that to:

• the WCS band (proprietary)

• Band 17 700 MHz

• the 700 MHz band for supplemental downlink it got from Qualcomm

• Band 5 - 850 MHz

• Band 2 (though Tmobile could refarm its 5x5 GSM for LTE)

 

And it might be able to squeeze out Tmobile from having phones that are subsets of ATT's LTE spectrum.

Yes, ATT has AWS left but AJ said they might not deploy it at all because they lost much of its scale when they lost it to TMO in the breakup fee.

 

Couldn't all those MBAs deduce this was Charlie's plan when he first started bidding?

[supert0nes]

I disagree Mr. devil's advocate.  This clock that Ergen is on means all other parties are doing him a favor by hosting or buying his spectrum he can't deploy in time.

[maximus1987/lou99]

I disagree Mr. devil's advocate. This clock that Ergen is on means all other parties are doing him a favor by hosting or buying his spectrum he can't deploy in time.

 

Can you rephrase? I don't get it.

[supert0nes]

Dish is holding a hot potato, which is outlined very nicely by AJ earlier in this thread.  They have to do something about this spectrum, while the other 4 are busy enough just deploying the bands they have. 

 

AT&T doesn't even have a WCS phone yet.  This means those same buildout requirements will fall on the next owner of this spectrum.  Dish's need to unload or strike a deal, and other companies' focus on deploying what they have leads to a decreased value of Dish's spectrum.  This value was lowered more by sprint becoming flush with Clearwire spectrum they now have to deploy and a Clearwire network that Dish can't currently deploy on.

 

Combine all this with a false spectrum scarcity that is starting to show through in markets around the world, and you have a rapidly dropping value of Dish's spectrum.

[maximus1987/lou99]

Dish is holding a hot potato, which is outlined very nicely by AJ earlier in this thread. They have to do something about this spectrum, while the other 4 are busy enough just deploying the bands they have.

 

AT&T doesn't even have a WCS phone yet. This means those same buildout requirements will fall on the next owner of this spectrum. Dish's need to unload or strike a deal, and other companies' focus on deploying what they have leads to a decreased value of Dish's spectrum. This value was lowered more by sprint becoming flush with Clearwire spectrum they now have to deploy and a Clearwire network that Dish can't currently deploy on.

 

Combine all this with a false spectrum scarcity that is starting to show through in markets around the world, and you have a rapidly dropping value of Dish's spectrum.

 

I mostly agree. Can you add capacity by adding more small cells forever? Eventually you're gonna have diminishing returns there just as you would putting up more macro cells.

 

And I don't see ATT missing an opportunity to get another proprietary band.

 

Also, you're assuming the FCC won't push back the coverage requirements if Dish sells.

[S4GRU]

Can you add capacity by adding more small cells forever? Eventually you're gonna have diminishing returns there just as you would putting up more macro cells.

 

Nope, not forever. But for a long time. It will take many years before small cells are as small as they can feasibly be and more spectrum must be obtained. AT&T will be refarming spectrum before that point.

 

And even when that happens, it will only be in the largest cities. The top 10, or at worst, the Top 20. We really don't have a spectrum problem in this country. We have a spectrum crunch in the densest parts of our largest cities.

 

Robert from Note 2 using Tapatalk 4 Beta

 

 

[maximus1987/lou99]

Can you add capacity by adding more small cells forever? Eventually you're gonna have diminishing returns there just as you would putting up more macro cells.

 

 

Nope, not forever. But for a long time. It will take many years before small cells are as small as they can feasibly be and more spectrum must be obtained. AT&T will be refarming spectrum before that point.

 

 

 

And even when that happens, it will only be in the largest cities. The top 10, or at worst, the Top 20. We really don't have a spectrum problem in this country. We have a spectrum crunch in the densest parts of our largest cities.

 

 

 

Robert from Note 2 using Tapatalk 4 Beta

 

 

 

 

So then why wouldn't ATT want spectrum that has a 3gpp band TODAY?

[WiWavelength]

So then why wouldn't ATT want spectrum that has a 3gpp band TODAY?

 

Some think that AT&T would not be allowed to gobble up yet another spectrum band, as it has largely done so with band 12 Lower 700 MHz and WCS 2300 MHz lately.  So, AT&T might not be in the running.

 

AJ

[maximus1987/lou99]

 

 

So then why wouldn't ATT want spectrum that has a 3gpp band TODAY?

 

 

Some think that AT&T would not be allowed to gobble up yet another spectrum band, as it has largely done so with band 12 Lower 700 MHz and WCS 2300 MHz lately. So, AT&T might not be in the running.

 

AJ

If ATT offers to give up the rest of AWS in exchange?

[WiWavelength]

If ATT offers to give up the rest of AWS in exchange?

 

AT&T's remaining AWS is a pittance compared to 40 MHz of AWS-4 A/B block spectrum completely nationwide.  AT&T would lose very little and gain everything.  Thus, that bargain might not gain much traction with regulators.  It would be like Peter Minuit getting the island of Manhattan from Native Americans for $26 and a bottle of booze.

 

AJ

[maximus1987/lou99]

 

 

 

If ATT offers to give up the rest of AWS in exchange?

 

 

AT&T's remaining AWS is a pittance compared to 40 MHz of AWS-4 A/B block spectrum completely nationwide. AT&T would lose very little and gain everything. Thus, that bargain might not gain much traction with regulators. It would be like Peter Minuit getting the island of Manhattan from Native Americans for $26 and a bottle of booze.

 

AJ

Yes but:

•Sprint doesn't need it cause it has 2.5GHz

•Tmobile doesn't have the scale to have a proprietary band nor does it need the spectrum.

• US Cellular is retreating and looks like they're liquidating

 

So we're left with Verizon or ATT.

 

How much AWS does ATT have left? If it is a pittance then that means that TMO will be able to afford it.

 

And since when have regulators ever extracted meaningful concessions in approval of spectrum purchase?

What did Verizon have to give up when it got 20MHz of AWS from cable cos? A limit on the length of the agreement and removing the exclusivity part (I think). Wow. What a concession.

 

Anyway, Tmobile won't need to ride on ATT's coattails anymore: the next Verizon iphone will have Band 4 and in 2015, Verizon said it will refarm PCS for LTE. Plus, the iphone will have Qualcomm's multimode for HSPA+ and enabling HSPA+ on AWS requires no additional hardware change if LTE Band 4 is present; I saw the FCC doc for Tmobile's iphone 5.

[bigsnake49]

Some think that AT&T would not be allowed to gobble up yet another spectrum band, as it has largely done so with band 12 Lower 700 MHz and WCS 2300 MHz lately.  So, AT&T might not be in the running.

 

AJ

 

I personally think that they would have absolutely no problems gobbling up the spectrum. They might be the only ones in the running.

[maximus1987/lou99]

 

 

Some think that AT&T would not be allowed to gobble up yet another spectrum band, as it has largely done so with band 12 Lower 700 MHz and WCS 2300 MHz lately. So, AT&T might not be in the running.

 

AJ

 

 

I personally think that they would have absolutely no problems gobbling up the spectrum. They might be the only ones in the running.

It may be easier for Verizon just on the number of bands they have now vs ATT:

• Verizon: 2 PCS; 4 AWS; 13 700MHz; 5 Cellular 850

• ATT: 17 700 MHz; 2 PCS; 4 AWS; 5 Cellular 850; WCS (band not assigned yet); and the downlink-only 700 MHz which is a separate band.

 

That's 6 already for ATT and only 4 for Verizon.

[WiWavelength]

Okay, guys, what makes you think that the FCC would allow Ergen to flip his bankrupt S-band satellite spectrum converted to AWS-4 terrestrial spectrum to AT&T or VZW for a nice profit?  The FCC basically gave LightSquared and Dish special treatment as a means of increasing wholesale access and/or competition in the mobile industry.  Allowing the duopoly to grab AWS-4 would have just the opposite effect.

 

So, I would not be the least bit surprised to see the FCC stick it to Ergen:  "Charlie, you are the one who wanted terrestrial mobile spectrum.  Well, we let you have it.  Now, you actually have to do something with it, not just sell it."

 

So, you disagree with me?  You had better be able to justify your reasoning...

 

AJ

[Keitarou]

Sorry if this is a dumb question and sorry if there was a post somewhere with this very question... but can someone explain to me what PCS, AWS means? Pros/Cons for each of them? I kind of know that lower band frequencies are better for building penetration and distance and the higher frequencies are for short distance and better in regards to speed(?). If there was a post, a link would be great so i can read up on it. Thanks.