Northeast Blizzard, Jan. 2015

[Dkoellerwx]

Latest official numbers from the NWS look very impressive.

 

However, the model averages have backed off from the 2-3 feet numbers across New Jersey and NYC. Still major snow though.

[EvanA]

http://newsroom.sprint.com/featured-articles/sprint-prepares-for-winter-storm-juno.htm

[Dkoellerwx]

http://newsroom.sprint.com/featured-articles/sprint-prepares-for-winter-storm-juno.htm

 

Good from them, but ... really? Juno? Freaking Weather Channel.

[cdk]

I am going to be disappointed if I have to go to work tomorrow...and looking at the radar and outside is not giving me hope.

[sbolen]

Good from them, but ... really? Juno? Freaking Weather Channel.

 

And why would you name a megastorm after a bad Ellen Page movie?

[Dkoellerwx]

I am going to be disappointed if I have to go to work tomorrow...and looking at the radar and outside is not giving me hope.

 

Yeah, Delaware probably getting shafted with this one.

[Dkoellerwx]

If anyone has any pictures tonight or tomorrow that they might want to share with a lowly FOX Affiliate in Springfield, MO, post here or PM me! Thanks!

[kojitsari]

Post them here, as a Midwesterner I'm totally jealous of your snow. Stupid sunshine and 50-60 degree temps... [emoji38] .

[cdk]

Yeah, Delaware probably getting shafted with this one.

They have all ready completely panicked and closed all the schools here. I just need them to decide to close all non essential government offices. I think if we get 4 or 5 inches they will....

 

Of course after spending several winters in the shadow of the Great Lakes makes me realize they are a bunch of wimps here. Yet I am not going to complain if I get a day off for it.

[travismheim]

We got 4, maybe 5 inches here in Syracuse, I'm glad we missed this storm. We normally get pounded every year but seem to be lucky this season.

[BlueAngel]

Maybe one inch here, weathermen are a joke.

 

Sent from my Nexus 5 (Root + ElementalX Kernel)

[swintec]

really only have high winds right now.  Very light snow.

[Dkoellerwx]

Maybe one inch here, weathermen are a joke.

 

Sent from my Nexus 5 (Root + ElementalX Kernel)

 

Hey now. Forecasting is incredibly complex. I'd like to see you try. When all the information available points to an extreme storm, what are you to do? We rely on forecast models because the math to required to complete a 24 hour forecast for one point on the map would take about 48 hours to do by hand. It's not a perfect science, and we still have a lot to learn. The track of the storm may have shifted by about 50 miles, but that's darn close to a perfect forecast when you look at the grand scheme of things. A 50 mile wobble is a tiny ripple in the jet stream that forecast models just can't see at, even 36 hours out. The resolution just isn't good enough. Once you get within 24 hours, the super high-resolution models start to pick up on those little wobbles, and you see the forecasts begin to get refined. 

 

/rant

 

Numbers have certainly pulled back on the western edge of the storm, including the NYC area. I still think 8-10 is certainly doable based on the current radar trends. Bullseye still looks to be eastern Mass. into the Boston area. 

 

[milan03]

Is this historic thing gonna show up or should I just go to sleep... Love the media overhyping these "blizzards" all for the sake of boosting the economy. Tired of it tbh...

[Dkoellerwx]

Is this historic thing gonna show up or should I just go to sleep... Love the media overhyping these "blizzards" all for the sake of boosting the economy. Tired of it tbh...

 

Strongest winds and heaviest snow affecting eastern Long Island, Connecticut and Massachusetts. NYC might see gusts to 35mph through the next 6 hours or so, but not quite blizzard criteria. 60-70mph winds hitting the Mass. coast right now. 77mph in Nantucket. 

[milan03]

All hype guys... Go spend as much money as possible on food and survival kits then hide. 

[Flompholph]

Is this historic thing gonna show up or should I just go to sleep... Love the media overhyping these "blizzards" all for the sake of boosting the economy. Tired of it tbh...

yeah like when it snowed in buffalo then cuomo blaming the weather man for not predicting that much snow but they did. Go to sleep bands of snow are supposed to go all night and into the morning. The total are for 72 hours not the next ten minutes.

[Dkoellerwx]

All hype guys... Go spend as much money as possible on food and survival kits then hide. 

 

For goodness sake... some gov't agencies and news outlets may have blown things up a bit, but the forecasters have done their best with this thing. Nobody *wants* to forecast a storm of 1 to 2 feet of snow, but when all the data says that's what's going to happen, that's what you have to go with. This evening, the data changed, but the damage has already been done. Conditions will still be bad in the morning. And for everyone east of NYC, the forecast is panning out as expected. 

[milan03]

For goodness sake... some gov't agencies and news outlets may have blown things up a bit, but the forecasters have done their best with this thing. Nobody *wants* to forecast a storm of 1 to 2 feet of snow, but when all the data says that's what's going to happen, that's what you have to go with. This evening, the data changed, but the damage has already been done. Conditions will still be bad in the morning. And for everyone east of NYC, the forecast is panning out as expected.

Zero damage in NYC, I even walked my dog 10mins ago, it's a total hype. They even have subways trains fully running but without passengers "to keep the snow off the rails" and passengers off the streets. Give me a freaking break...

[Dkoellerwx]

Zero damage in NYC, I even walked my dog 10mins ago, it's a total hype. They even have subways trains fully running but without passengers "to keep the snow off the rails" and passengers off the streets. Give me a freaking break...

 

At the time that decisions had to be made by DOT on those kinds of things, all the data pointed to 1 to 2 feet of snow.

 

If we knew then what we know now, would the same decisions have been made? Probably not. But it wasn't done out of hype.

 

Get that through your head.

 

Rapidly deepening winter storms are very challenging to predict, specifically their track and how far west the heaviest bands will move. These bands are nearly impossible to predict until they develop. Our science has come a long way, but there are still many moving parts in the atmosphere which creates quite the forecast challenge. The heaviest snows have struggled to move west of the Hudson River. We have updated our storm total forecast. Highest totals when the event is over Tuesday night will be across Long Island and southern CT.

[EvanA]

I think the lesson here is to not argue with a weatherman

[milan03]

 

At the time that decisions had to be made by DOT on those kinds of things, all the data pointed to 1 to 2 feet of snow.

 

If we knew then what we know now, would the same decisions have been made? Probably not. But it wasn't done out of hype.

 

Get that through your head.

 

Heh.. I've been through quite a few "blizzards" here in NYC. All of them overhyped. The reason? To get as many people to spend as much money on food and other supply. "Let's boost the economy!"

 

This has been by far the weakest of them all, but the most hyped. They've managed to shut down the entire freaking island of Manhattan... For what?!

[Dkoellerwx]

Heh.. I've been through quite a few "blizzards" here in NYC. All of them overhyped. The reason? To get as many people to spend as much money on food and other supply.

 

This has been by far the weakest of them all, but the most hyped. They've managed to shut down the entire island of Manhattan... For what?

For a storm that all our available information indicated would slam the city. Well, it missed. Sorry, but that's not hype. It's forecast bust for sure, but not hype. The potential for a significant storm was real. Just ask eastern Long Island, Connecticut, or eastern Massachusetts.

 

I do think some of the statements made by gov't officials, and the sensational headlines from some 24hr news outlets were over the top. However, the (admittedly busted) forecast for NYC was not overdone based on the information that was available.

 

Just be glad it's hitting overnight, by morning everything should be back to normal for you. That won't be the case for Boston.

 

I think the lesson here is to not argue with a weatherman

Just hate all the crap people throw at my profession! 

[milan03]

Meh... I'm used to it. Don't even go for massive shopping sprees anymore. 

 

Hey, but I appreciate your work man.

[Dkoellerwx]

Meh... I'm used to it. Don't even go for massive shopping sprees anymore. 

 

Hey, but I appreciate your work man.

 

This thing is extremely frustrating, and I'm not even there! Can't imagine how NYC meteorologists feel right now. The most reliable model, the European Model, which is the one most of the forecasts were based on, majorly let us down. This is the model that most accurately forecasted Hurricane Sandy's path, so you can imagine why forecasters tended to side with it on this storm. Unfortunately, a pretty big miss for NYC. 

 

Anyone in Boston up tonight? Lol