Masa at Code Conference: I admire T-Mobile

[Fraydog]

Yup, he said that. 

 

http://recode.net/2014/05/28/softbank-ceo-masayoshi-son-on-his-quest-for-t-mobile-and-more-liveblog/

 

 

This is a live comment thread based on what's he's saying right now, as soon as there's a video recap, I'll try to find it.

[Fraydog]

http://recode.net/2014/05/28/softbank-ceo-masayoshi-son-on-his-quest-for-t-mobile-and-more-liveblog/#liveblog-entry-46159

 

Audience question time. What did Sprint do wrong?

“WiMax was the wrong technology. Period.”

 

[MacinJosh]

http://recode.net/2014/05/28/softbank-ceo-masayoshi-son-on-his-quest-for-t-mobile-and-more-liveblog/#liveblog-entry-46159

Wow! Talk about telling it like it is!

 

 

Sent from Josh's iPhone 5S using Tapatalk 2

[WiWavelength]

http://recode.net/2014/05/28/softbank-ceo-masayoshi-son-on-his-quest-for-t-mobile-and-more-liveblog/#liveblog-entry-46159

I seriously doubt that he has the knowledge of FCC construction requirements to back that up. In some ways, Son is just another asshat who thinks that he can throw his money around and get his way.

 

AJ

[Fraydog]

The WiMax technology itself may have not been the problem per se. 

 

The way that the strategy for WiMax was executed was certainly a problem.  If I had to go down the rabbit hole, I'd say that the strategy that Sprint has been set on from the Nextel deal consummation, until now, was almost entirely set by Gary Forsee. Sure there might have been things that Hesse changed on execution, like how Clearwire was set up, and how Hesse basically saved Sprint from getting liquidated. But the basic strategy was so locked in by Forsee that it dictated 10 years of Sprint. Hesse didn't really have a chance to back up from WiMax until it was too late. 

 

But, if instead of going to WiMax, what if Forsee had got Ericsson and Nokia on line with coming out with TD modes of operation sooner for LTE? That might be the greatest - and most underrated mistake Forsee ever made. Sprint certainly can use Nextel spectrum now, even as the process of getting that spectrum almost killed it. Sprint can use Clearwire spectrum now, even though there were boat loads filled with mistakes in getting that spectrum. 

 

When I peel the layers off, I can see how Son can think what I just typed out, but needed a much shorter way to express it.

 

Welp, boom. WiMax was the problem. 

[TheForce627]

Could sprint have used the 2.5ghz spectrum for evdo at the time just to meet the build out requirements and wait until lte was ready?

[Fraydog]

They could have met requirements with expedience tech like the old Motorola Clear racks.

[anthony.spina97]

Could sprint have used the 2.5ghz spectrum for evdo at the time just to meet the build out requirements and wait until lte was ready?

I'm not sure if 2.5 was certified (Or however the FCC or whomever says what frequency can broadcast what) to broadcast EV-DO.

 

-Anthony

[WiWavelength]

Could sprint have used the 2.5ghz spectrum for evdo at the time just to meet the build out requirements and wait until lte was ready?

I'm not sure if 2.5 was certified (Or however the FCC or whomever says what frequency can broadcast what) to broadcast EV-DO.

 

No.  Remember that BRS/EBS 2600 MHz is unpaired spectrum.  It allows for only TDD operation.

 

AJ

[WiWavelength]

The WiMax technology itself may have not been the problem per se.

 

This is not a knock on you -- and you will pardon the pun later on -- but people seem to enjoy ripping on Sprint, WiMAX being one of their favorite targets as a so called bad decision.  Kick a dog when it is down.

 

I still think that the WiMAX failure to gain traction was possibly a 3GPP conspiracy against it, but definitely a lost opportunity.  Had WiMAX become the prevailing standard, then IEEE would have run the show.  We would have gotten out from under the thumb of the 3GPP cartel.

 

For example, look at the ubiquity of another IEEE standard:  Wi-Fi.  It is now in nearly every piece of consumer electronics.  Just a MAC address.  No SIM card nonsense.

 

The same could have happened with WiMAX.  No $100 extra for the Wi-Fi + Cellular model or netbook with contract baloney.  Everything would have had WiMAX built in, just like Wi-Fi.  And consumers could have decided when, where, or even if to activate WiMAX with the operators of their choice.

 

Maybe that will still happen with LTE.  But I guarantee that it would have happened more quickly with WiMAX.

 

AJ

[bigsnake49]

This is not a knock on you -- and you will pardon the pun later on -- but people seem to enjoy ripping on Sprint, WiMAX being one of their favorite targets as a so called bad decision.  Kick a dog when it is down.

 

I still think that the WiMAX failure to gain traction was possibly a 3GPP conspiracy against it, but definitely a lost opportunity.  Had WiMAX become the prevailing standard, then IEEE would have run the show.  We would have gotten out from under the thumb of the 3GPP cartel.

 

For example, look at the ubiquity of another IEEE standard:  Wi-Fi.  It is now in nearly every piece of consumer electronics.  Just a MAC address.  No SIM card nonsense.

 

The same could have happened with WiMAX.  No $100 extra for the Wi-Fi + Cellular model or netbook with contract baloney.  Everything would have had WiMAX built in, just like Wi-Fi.  And consumers could have decided when, where, or even if to activate WiMAX with the operators of their choice.

 

Maybe that will still happen with LTE.  But I guarantee that it would have happened more quickly with WiMAX.

 

AJ

 

Wimax was not a mistake. Nextel merger was.

[MacinJosh]

Wimax was not a mistake. Nextel merger was.

How so? If Sprint didn't buy Nextel, AT&T would have been the next suitor on the list. Sprint is using the Nextel spectrum for LTE and 1x voice. I don't call that a mistake at all. Just the execution of how they did things after. They left both networks to stagnate after the merger, and then the suits from the affiliates. That was the mistake.

 

 

Sent from Josh's iPhone 5S using Tapatalk 2

[bigsnake49]

How so? If Sprint didn't buy Nextel, AT&T would have been the next suitor on the list. Sprint is using the Nextel spectrum for LTE and 1x voice. I don't call that a mistake at all. Just the execution of how they did things after. They left both networks to stagnate after the merger, and then the suits from the affiliates. That was the mistake.

 

 

Sent from Josh's iPhone 5S using Tapatalk 2

They were promised 3 year rebanding. 10 years later and IBEZ is still not settled. They absorbed Nextel's debt which was substantial + had to buy the affiliates which deprived them of financing to maintain the networks. Nextel's network was oversubscribed in a pump and dump manner in a network that was about to undergo rebanding. The alternative was to gain rural coverage by acquiring Alltel which had very little debt + some regionals and possibly USCC. They would have gained legitimacy as a nationwide carrier, reduced their roaming bill and most probably not have to absorb the affiliates. Their new customers would not have jumped off as quickly as the Nextelians, if at all. They could have beefed up their PCS spectrum in areas they are weak by participating in the Nextwave spectrum selloff and the 700Mhz auction and the AWS auction.

Edited May 29, 2014 by bigsnake49

[Fraydog]

They were promised 3 year rebanding. 10 years later and IBEZ is still not settled. They absorbed Nextel's debt which was substantial + had to buy the affiliates which deprived them of financing to maintain the networks. Nextel's network was oversubscribed in a pump and dump manner in a network that was about to undergo rebanding. The alternative was to gain rural coverage by acquiring Alltel which had very little debt + some regionals and possibly USCC. They would have gained legitimacy as a nationwide carrier, reduced their roaming bill and most probably not have to absorb the affiliates. Their new customers would not have jumped off as quickly as the Nextelians, if at all. They could have beefed up their PCS spectrum in areas they are weak by participating in the Nextwave spectrum selloff and the 700Mhz auction and the AWS auction.

Not to mention Sprint would not have had to maintain two completely different networks, as IDEN shared far more in common with 3GPP tech than CDMA. Sprint/Alltel/USCC/CSpire are all on the CDMA track.

 

That said it's past history now.

[Fraydog]

How so? If Sprint didn't buy Nextel, AT&T would have been the next suitor on the list. Sprint is using the Nextel spectrum for LTE and 1x voice. I don't call that a mistake at all. Just the execution of how they did things after. They left both networks to stagnate after the merger, and then the suits from the affiliates. That was the mistake.

Based on what I know, Verizon was sniffing around Nextel when the Sprint purchase was made.

[Steve Dean]

Regardless of the finger pointing, poor decisions by previous leaders, etc..., at least Masa has a plan and is looking forward on how to really "build a better network" with Sprint.  As he said, he is only six months into a three to five year plan.  I see what he was able to do with Softbank in Japan and it took some time to get there.  Hopefully Masa's plan will be implemented quickly but we all have witnessed the progress of NV 1.0, it has taken a couple of years to get where we are today but look at the last six months, the pace of the NV 1.0 upgrades really took off.  I will contribute this to Masa.

 

Now we are into NV 2.0.  As we are reading in the Premier Sponsor area, it is really moving forward.  Granted, in this microwave generation, we want it now but it is happening.  Again, time will tell.

[jamisonshaw125]

Regardless of the finger pointing, poor decisions by previous leaders, etc..., at least Masa has a plan and is looking forward on how to really "build a better network" with Sprint.  As he said, he is only six months into a three to five year plan.  I see what he was able to do with Softbank in Japan and it took some time to get there.  Hopefully Masa's plan will be implemented quickly but we all have witnessed the progress of NV 1.0, it has taken a couple of years to get where we are today but look at the last six months, the pace of the NV 1.0 upgrades really took off.  I will contribute this to Masa.

 

Now we are into NV 2.0.  As we are reading in the Premier Sponsor area, it is really moving forward.  Granted, in this microwave generation, we want it now but it is happening.  Again, time will tell.

And Masa lost a billion a year doing his crazy plan. This guy is smart. At least if Legere takes over in place of Hesse we know that Masa has him on a tight leash...Legere might like that anyways. He's always been a fan of leather.  

[WiWavelength]

The alternative was to gain rural coverage by acquiring Alltel which had very little debt + some regionals and possibly USCC. They would have gained legitimacy as a nationwide carrier, reduced their roaming bill and most probably not have to absorb the affiliates. Their new customers would not have jumped off as quickly as the Nextelians, if at all. They could have beefed up their PCS spectrum in areas they are weak by participating in the Nextwave spectrum selloff and the 700Mhz auction and the AWS auction.

 

I do not necessarily disagree, as I would have liked for Sprint to have secured Alltel before VZW did.  But acquiring both Nextel and Alltel would have been nearly impossible for Sprint to pull off.  So, here is the counterargument why Nextel was still the right choice.

 

Low band spectrum.  Let me say it again.  Low band spectrum.

 

Yes, Alltel would have brought on board a lot of its own rural Cellular 850 MHz in the South and, from its WWC acquisition, vast rural Cellular 850 MHz in the West.  That would have swelled the Sprint footprint impressively on the coverage map.

 

But what about the major markets?  Okay, acquiring Alltel would have been great for Albuquerque, Charlotte, Cleveland, El Paso, Oklahoma City, Omaha, Phoenix, and Tampa, but that is about it.  Alltel held Cellular 850 MHz licenses for few top 100 markets.  And like it or not, that is where the hay is made.

 

So, by acquiring Nextel -- if for nothing else than its massive SMR 800 MHz holdings -- Sprint on the whole got more low band spectrum in far more places.  That effectively addressed the historic knock against Sprint -- lack of low band spectrum.  And Sprint obtained enough spectrum to deploy both CDMA1X and LTE.  That was a win win.

 

On that last count, the contention that Sprint-Alltel could have won equivalent spectrum in the Upper/Lower 700 MHz auction is specious.  VZW was not coming out of that auction without the Upper 700 MHz C block nationwide.  And AT&T prior to the auction already held numerous Lower 700 MHz C block licenses, thus was going to grab as many Lower 700 MHz B block licenses as it could.  No way would Sprint have been able to fight off the Twin Bells and come away with a national 700 MHz footprint.  If anything, Sprint would have been relegated to the Lower 700 MHz A block ghetto, which to this day is still unusable in many major markets.  Plus, it never would have supported CDMA1X.

 

While getting all of the ducks in a row for public safety rebanding, SMR 800 MHz broadband operation, and iDEN shutdown has been a disappointingly protracted process, Sprint is finally starting to see the payoff.  And the Sprint network is really starting to shine -- because of low band spectrum nearly everywhere.  That would not have been possible with Alltel instead of Nextel.

 

AJ

[Fraydog]

If only Sprint could have got some of that 800 CDMA coverage out faster...

[WiWavelength]

If only Sprint could have got some of that 800 CDMA coverage out faster...

 

Hindsight is always 20/20.  But, yes, in retrospect, Sprint should have shut down at least iDEN 800 and deployed CDMA1X 800, probably even EV-DO 800, a good five years earlier than it did.

 

AJ

[bigsnake49]

I do not necessarily disagree, as I would have liked for Sprint to have secured Alltel before VZW did.  But acquiring both Nextel and Alltel would have been nearly impossible for Sprint to pull off.  So, here is the counterargument why Nextel was still the right choice.

 

Low band spectrum.  Let me say it again.  Low band spectrum.

 

Yes, Alltel would have brought on board a lot of its own rural Cellular 850 MHz in the South and, from its WWC acquisition, vast rural Cellular 850 MHz in the West.  That would have swelled the Sprint footprint impressively on the coverage map.

 

But what about the major markets?  Okay, acquiring Alltel would have been great for Albuquerque, Charlotte, Cleveland, El Paso, Oklahoma City, Omaha, Phoenix, and Tampa, but that is about it.  Alltel held Cellular 850 MHz licenses for few top 100 markets.  And like it or not, that is where the hay is made.

 

So, by acquiring Nextel -- if for nothing else than its massive SMR 800 MHz holdings -- Sprint on the whole got more low band spectrum in far more places.  That effectively addressed the historic knock against Sprint -- lack of low band spectrum.  And Sprint obtained enough spectrum to deploy both CDMA1X and LTE.  That was a win win.

 

On that last count, the contention that Sprint-Alltel could have won equivalent spectrum in the Upper/Lower 700 MHz auction is specious.  VZW was not coming out of that auction without the Upper 700 MHz C block nationwide.  And AT&T prior to the auction already held numerous Lower 700 MHz C block licenses, thus was going to grab as many Lower 700 MHz B block licenses as it could.  No way would Sprint have been able to fight off the Twin Bells and come away with a national 700 MHz footprint.  If anything, Sprint would have been relegated to the Lower 700 MHz A block ghetto, which to this day is still unusable in many major markets.  Plus, it never would have supported CDMA1X.

 

While getting all of the ducks in a row for public safety rebanding, SMR 800 MHz broadband operation, and iDEN shutdown has been a disappointingly protracted process, Sprint is finally starting to see the payoff.  And the Sprint network is really starting to shine -- because of low band spectrum nearly everywhere.  That would not have been possible with Alltel instead of Nextel.

 

AJ

The whole thing, nearly killed Sprint. Yeah, if they wanted low spectrum everywhere they Nextel would have been preferable. Alltel+Nextel + USCC + other smaller regionals would have been even better. I still don't know why FCC did not reband some of the B/ILT spectrum to 900MHz to give Sprint a solid 10+10MHZ to Sprint or resolved the IBEZ problem sooner. Between the FCC and Sprint, I don't know which one is more incompetent. Sprint could have bid for the upper 700MHz Block D. Low enough reserve price and probably would have had an inside track to deploy the PS LTE network.

Edited May 29, 2014 by bigsnake49

[lordsutch]

Don't forget that Sprint also wouldn't have gotten nationwide PCS block G without the Nextel merger. It's not huge spectrum-wise but it ensured Sprint had ample space to roll out LTE without removing any 1x and EVDO carriers.

 

That said I do think they should have cut bait on iDEN several years earlier. The PTT crowd might have even tolerated the switch more since everyone's non-iDEN PTT sucked eggs then.

[bigsnake49]

Don't forget that Sprint also wouldn't have gotten nationwide PCS block G without the Nextel merger. It's not huge spectrum-wise but it ensured Sprint had ample space to roll out LTE without removing any 1x and EVDO carriers.

 

That said I do think they should have cut bait on iDEN several years earlier. The PTT crowd might have even tolerated the switch more since everyone's non-iDEN PTT sucked eggs then.

 

The problem was not IDEN, the problem was public safety. They were dragging their feet like they usually do.

[S4GRU]

I'm not sure there is an IBEZ solution until the narrowband SMR providers in Canada and Mexico are ready to move to wideband. As long as they stay on narrowband in the same or adjacent frequencies, there will be little to no movement in the IBEZ.

 

Robert via Samsung Note 8.0 using Tapatalk Pro

[bigsnake49]

I'm not sure there is an IBEZ solution until the narrowband SMR providers in Canada and Mexico are ready to move to wideband. As long as they stay on narrowband in the same or adjacent frequencies, there will be little to no movement in the IBEZ.

 

Robert via Samsung Note 8.0 using Tapatalk Pro

I personally feel that the exclusionary zone is way too wide and everybody needs to adjust downtilt to minimize interference.