Sprint and Tmobile merger... unlikely to happen now

[IamMrFamous07]

http://news.investors.com/technology/082213-668475-tmobile-sprint-resurgence-undermines-possible-merger.htm

 

Just came across and decided to post it( conversation has been dead as of late lol)

 

 

I honestly wanted tmobile and sprint to merge years ago but honestly I'd rather keep having 4 national carriers just for competition. Plus I don't want sprint to have a Nextel 2.0 fiasco. I'm sure sprint buying tmobile will probably be an easier transition from Sprint buying Nextel.

 

I would like for sprint to acquire Ntelos & USCC

[cdk]

If they can scare nTelos to stay in an orbit like Shentel that would be fine. Now acquiring USCC would be great. It would be fun to watch NV 3.0, the upgrading and integration of the USCC network into Sprint!

[richy]

I'm not sure how they would benefit from such a merger. yes in size, consumers and synergies in sites and office jobs. What it wouldn't bring is a ton of spectrum. Don't cable \ sat companies have a bunch sat around unused?

 

It is a disgrace that qualcomm had so much sat around unused until recently. That should simply not have been allowed, use it or lose it. 

[WiWavelength]

I'm not sure how they would benefit from such a merger. yes in size, consumers and synergies in sites and office jobs. What it wouldn't bring is a ton of spectrum. Don't cable \ sat companies have a bunch sat around unused?

 

It is a disgrace that qualcomm had so much sat around unused until recently. That should simply not have been allowed, use it or lose it. 

 

No, that is not accurate.  To what spectrum are you referring?

 

AJ

[richy]

No, that is not accurate.  To what spectrum are you referring?

 

AJ

 

Sorry I thought qualcomm had two blocks in 700mhz nationwide totaling just under 20mhz which they had intended to use for a multicast tv system which never got popular and basically died on its arse. I thought they sold it to at&t for just under $2bn. Apologies if I misunderstood that situation. Dish has another 40mhz of aws. Given the scrambling over spectrum I just felt it crazy that spectrum sat around basically unused. 

[Nickel]

I would like for sprint to acquire Ntelos & USCC

Oh no, not this again. Like I said in the US Celluar thread, I don't think Sprint needs to accquire USCC. Some kind of LTE roaming deal would be perfect for both.

[ericdabbs]

I am fine with this.  With the way Tmobile is trying to reinvigorate itsel and playing catch up, I like to see 4 major carriers with both Sprint and Tmobile offering unlimited data.  With the Softbank and Clearwire deals complete, I don't see Sprint making any huge acquisitions in the near future.

[bigsnake49]

I am fine with this.  With the way Tmobile is trying to reinvigorate itsel and playing catch up, I like to see 4 major carriers with both Sprint and Tmobile offering unlimited data.  With the Softbank and Clearwire deals complete, I don't see Sprint making any huge acquisitions in the near future.

You would be wrong .... I know for a fact that Softbank is looking at a Sprint/T-Mobile merger since at least last summer. Whether they will pull the trigger or whether it will be approved is unknown, but I know that my contacts have been working on it for a year+.

 

Let's face it. The US market is mature, no more Nextel subscribers to poach. Once Sprint gets its network house in order, that source will dry up as well. The market will reach some sort of equilibrium. So the only way to acquire subscribers is through acquisitions.

Edited August 23, 2013 by bigsnake49

[WiWavelength]

Sorry I thought qualcomm had two blocks in 700mhz nationwide totaling just under 20mhz which they had intended to use for a multicast tv system which never got popular and basically died on its arse. I thought they sold it to at&t for just under $2bn. Apologies if I misunderstood that situation. Dish has another 40mhz of aws. Given the scrambling over spectrum I just felt it crazy that spectrum sat around basically unused. 

 

Well, no, your facts are a bit off.

 

Qualcomm had the Lower 700 MHz D block 6 MHz unpaired (UHF channel 55) nationwide and the E block 6 MHz unpaired (UHF channel 56) in New York, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Boston.  Thus, that was 6 MHz nationwide plus 6 MHz in only five markets.

 

And Qualcomm sold that spectrum to AT&T three years ago.  Now, it sits unused because AT&T cannot yet figure out what to do with it, since it is unpaired, fit only for TDD or carrier aggregation operations.  Qualcomm, on the other hand, had put it to good use for several years, though MediaFLO light up was delayed in some markets due to postponement of the NTSC sunset, ATSC transition.

 

But MediaFLO was a damn good idea, offloading popular simulcast streaming content from the macro cellular network onto a broadcast network.  With EV-DO and W-CDMA, it made no sense to have thousands of people around a metro each simultaneously streaming the CBS Evening News, ESPN Sports Center, etc.  It still makes little sense over LTE, even with eMBMS LTE Broadcast, as that still takes up valuable capacity on an LTE carrier.

 

That MediaFLO failed is not really Qualcomm's fault.  The idea just came to market too soon.  Most wireless subs were still on flip phones with screens that made watching mobile TV barely palatable.  Now, with large screen smartphones and tablets taking over the market, mobile TV is likely to take off with them.

 

Then, you mentioned cable/satellite companies.  Cable was SpectrumCo (Comcast and Time Warner) and Cox, which together controlled 20 MHz of AWS-1 spectrum nearly nationwide.  Cox actually put some of its spectrum into use, as it built a wireless network in a few of its markets.  But Cox shuttered that network a few years ago, as it could not compete with the incumbent operators.  Meanwhile, SpectrumCo never did anything with its spectrum.  Regardless, both SpectrumCo and Cox sold off their spectrum to VZW two years ago, so that point is moot.

 

As for satellite, Dish has 40 MHz of AWS-4 spectrum nationwide, but AWS-4 is not the same thing as AWS-1 -- do not conflate the two.  AWS-4 is terrestrial spectrum now, yet it was converted from satellite spectrum only in the last year.  To do anything with that spectrum only recently authorized for terrestrial use takes standardization, planning, and deployment -- all of which take years.

 

Finally, the "scrambling over spectrum" has little to do with current needs or capacity.  Operators just want to stockpile spectrum for future use and keep it out of the hands of competitors.  So, a lot of spectrum sits around unused.  Get used to it.

 

AJ

[bigsnake49]

Sprint needs to get its stock higher, since T-Mobile stock has increased by about 50% since the merger closed on speculation that itl will be acquired. Of course DT owns what, 74% or 78% of T-Mobile so no matter what the stock price, the acquirer will have to deal with DT.

[bigsnake49]

Mobile Broadcast TV has been a failure everywhere it has been tried. She's dead, Jim! People want their conent when they want it, where they want it. Not on somebody else's schedule. They also don't like commercials. CDNs and Broadcast LTE will go a long way to satisfy the need to watch something simultaneously with other people in the same sector/site. 

[Rawvega]

Oh no, not this again. Like I said in the US Celluar thread, I don't think Sprint needs to accquire USCC. Some kind of LTE roaming deal would be perfect for both.

 

I disagree. I believe that they should at some point. If they don't, somebody else will eventually. Just reading through some of threads over at HoFo, they really seem to be floundering:

 

http://www.howardforums.com/showthread.php/1807558-Subscribers-Would-you-sign-a-new-2-year-contract-with-USCC-today

http://www.howardforums.com/showthread.php/1807697-Online-account-down-again

http://www.howardforums.com/showthread.php/1807297-Reception-Changes-(Issues)-in-Wisconsin

http://www.howardforums.com/showthread.php/1808064-Eastern-NC-reception-changes

and there are others.

 

They're losing customers, customer service seems to be tanking and users are reporting network issues. Sounds a bit like what Sprint went through actually. The difference is that Sprint had around 10x the customers that USCC has to soften the blows somewhat. I've also read grumblings about the new shared data plans coming next month since the pricing structure appears similar to VZW and AT&T, but with a lot less coverage. http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/report-us-cellulars-shared-data-plans-will-mimic-verizon-att/2013-08-14

 

If getting the iPhone doesn't jumpstart their subscriber numbers, they're done imo. Sprint would do well to be there to pick up the pieces.

[WiWavelength]

Mobile Broadcast TV has been a failure everywhere it has been tried. She's dead, Jim! People want their conent when they want it, where they want it. Not on somebody else's schedule. They also don't like commercials. CDNs and Broadcast LTE will go a long way to satisfy the need to watch something simultaneously with other people in the same sector/site. 

 

If people want it on their own schedules, that is time shifting, which does not work with LTE Broadcast.  Then, we are back to individual streams.  So, yeah, that will go a long way toward eating up our capacity and congesting our networks -- again.

 

It just blows my mind how people seem to have nothing better to do with their brains than to passively consume streaming content.  I guess we should move the "boob tube" nickname from the TV to the smartphone.

 

AJ

[richy]

Get used to it.

 

AJ

Respectfully, no thanks, although thank you for the correction & explanations. The world would be a rather shocking place if we just accepted everything as unchangeable. I remember at the time at&t said it wasn't going to sit on the spectrum forever but it would likely be 2014 before technology advanced enough for it to add it (I presume lte a?).

 

Re mediaflo, multicast has it's place and will have it's day for iptv over fixed connections but the genie is out of the bottle, linear TV has competition now. People have been given the freedom to watch pretty much what they want, when they want, where they want and how they want. Look at what netflix, hulu and amazon, even bbc iplayer. Not everyone, but a considerable number of people are making a choice with their money and driving a change. Whilst VOD is heavy on data this is offset (at least to some degree) by the amount of wifi access to wired connections and the transition away from terrestrial broadcasts (and improvements in cellular technology). Mediaflo was too early, but it was also more of the same, linear channels.

[WiWavelength]

Respectfully, no thanks, although thank you for the correction & explanations. The world would be a rather shocking place if we just accepted everything as unchangeable.

 

I suggest that you do get used to it.  Because of entrenchment, some things are practically unchangeable.  I know this from a dozen years of researching the wireless industry.  I have long publicly and politically argued against the stockpiling of spectrum, especially by the duopoly, and that has changed nothing -- other than to change me into a jaded, angry wireless veteran.  Trust me, you do not want that.

 

AJ

[richy]

If people want it on their own schedules, that is time shifting, which does not work with LTE Broadcast.  Then, we are back to individual streams.  So, yeah, that will go a long way toward eating up our capacity and congesting our networks -- again.

 

It just blows my mind how people seem to have nothing better to do with their brains than to passively consume streaming content.  I guess we should move the "boob tube" nickname from the TV to the smartphone.

 

AJ

ok I'm sorry but what? Passively consuming streaming content versus passively consuming linear broadcast content? (and this coming from the man with a youtube clip for every comment :-) ). Netflix isn't 2 million cat videos :-) If you have netflix, amazon et al you basically have a blockbuster store + cable network wired up to your tv, phone, tablet etc. It's the same shows but with more freedom over what you watch. A dvr will give you some freedom over when you watch, but not what or where (unless you have the ability to stream from your dvr over the internet at which point we are back to passively consuming streaming content).

I have a job and a family and rarely a social life. It is valuable to me to be able to cherrypick what I want to watch as I don't have much time and sometimes that slack time isn't at home. There is a value in what these companies are offering, I would much rather see cable companies embrace this and offer products. Hell it would be great to pay extra to avoid adverts. I'll even pay the same amount per month as I did for cable tv prior to having it cut off plus a premium for no adverts (netflix is bliss for this alone). It's not a cost saving issue, that's just gravy.

[richy]

I suggest that you do get used to it.  Because of entrenchment, some things are practically unchangeable.  I know this from a dozen years of researching the wireless industry.  I have long publicly and politically argued against the stockpiling of spectrum, especially by the duopoly, and that has changed nothing -- other than to change me into a jaded, angry wireless veteran.  Trust me, you do not want that.

 

AJ

Then allow me to pick up the banner :-)

 

Honestly I respect and understand what you are saying but I would rather continue. You are right, there are many battles we cannot win, but that doesn't mean we cannot continue to voice our concern. We will never get the money, corruption, religion or stupid out of politics (and I level that at both 'sides') but I refuse to ever stop ridiculing them for it.

 

As for jaded, it's 4.20 am, I'm sat on the rocks at the edge of a bay listening to a humpback who is here a month or two early and it sounds from her breathing and the fact shes inside the reef that she is birthing. Man you cannot be jaded in a world like this.

[richy]

Forgot to add, theres a phrase I remember from school that seems appropriate and sums up my thoughts :-)

 

qui tacet consentire videtur ubi loqui debuit ac potuit

[bigsnake49]

If people want it on their own schedules, that is time shifting, which does not work with LTE Broadcast.  Then, we are back to individual streams.  So, yeah, that will go a long way toward eating up our capacity and congesting our networks -- again.

 

It just blows my mind how people seem to have nothing better to do with their brains than to passively consume streaming content.  I guess we should move the "boob tube" nickname from the TV to the smartphone.

 

AJ

 

Well, that's another driver of bandwidth, internet gaming. Face it AJ, you are an old fart! Individual streams, buffered at the edge routers or as close as possible to the end points are here to stay. So better get used to it. The issue again will be price. At what price progress?

[Nickel]

I disagree. I believe that they should at some point. If they don't, somebody else will eventually. Just reading through some of threads over at HoFo, they really seem to be floundering:

 

http://www.howardforums.com/showthread.php/1807558-Subscribers-Would-you-sign-a-new-2-year-contract-with-USCC-today

http://www.howardforums.com/showthread.php/1807697-Online-account-down-again

http://www.howardforums.com/showthread.php/1807297-Reception-Changes-(Issues)-in-Wisconsin

http://www.howardforums.com/showthread.php/1808064-Eastern-NC-reception-changes

and there are others.

 

They're losing customers, customer service seems to be tanking and users are reporting network issues. Sounds a bit like what Sprint went through actually. The difference is that Sprint had around 10x the customers that USCC has to soften the blows somewhat. I've also read grumblings about the new shared data plans coming next month since the pricing structure appears similar to VZW and AT&T, but with a lot less coverage. http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/report-us-cellulars-shared-data-plans-will-mimic-verizon-att/2013-08-14

 

If getting the iPhone doesn't jumpstart their subscriber numbers, they're done imo. Sprint would do well to be there to pick up the pieces.

I had no idea they weren't doing well. I've only heard good things about them and my family would have never left had we not moved. 

[ericdabbs]

You would be wrong .... I know for a fact that Softbank is looking at a Sprint/T-Mobile merger since at least last summer. Whether they will pull the trigger or whether it will be approved is unknown, but I know that my contacts have been working on it for a year+.

 

Let's face it. The US market is mature, no more Nextel subscribers to poach. Once Sprint gets its network house in order, that source will dry up as well. The market will reach some sort of equilibrium. So the only way to acquire subscribers is through acquisitions.

 

You have stated this many times about a Sprint/Tmobile merger being inevitable and I am not surprised that I have baited you into responding to me.  It doesn't really matter that Sprint has set aside a team to look at a potential Sprint-Tmobile merger. Companies in every industry all the time set aside a research/proposal teams to identify "what-if" scenarios in potential buy outs of companies.  I am sure there are plenty of "what-if" scenarios that fell through because it didn't make sense.  The fact that you have contacts within Sprint that may be working on such a project doesn't mean it will necessarily happen.  I am sure your contacts can't reveal that much as well since that is insider information.   Sprint just has too much on their plate right now to catch up to Network Vision and focusing on the spectrum auctions for the PCS H block and 600 MHz.

 

At this point the biggest issue I see is the integration of all the different types of networks, GSM/WCDMA/HSPA/CDMA/EVDO/LTE.  While I understand that Tmobile is moving to LTE and Tmobile is working to quickly convert the MetroPCS CDMA customers to WCDMA/HSPA/LTE, it is still going to take a few years for that integration to be complete.  Also I don't know what Tmobile's plan is for the overlapping Tmobile and MetroPCS towers.  Are they going to decommission all those MetroPCS towers OR cherry pick a few MetroPCS towers that make sense and convert them to Tmobile towers OR convert all MetroPCS towers to be Tmobile towers.  

 

I still feel that I would much rather have 4 major carriers than to have Sprint and Tmobile combined with 3 major carriers.  If Tmobile does start taking some market share from AT&T and Verizon and can just obtain some 600 MHz, they should be fine and I think the FCC would be less inclined to have Sprint merge with Tmobile.  

[bigsnake49]

You have stated this many times about a Sprint/Tmobile merger being inevitable and I am not surprised that I have baited you into responding to me.  It doesn't really matter that Sprint has set aside a team to look at a potential Sprint-Tmobile merger. Companies in every industry all the time set aside a research/proposal teams to identify "what-if" scenarios in potential buy outs of companies.  I am sure there are plenty of "what-if" scenarios that fell through because it didn't make sense.  The fact that you have contacts within Sprint that may be working on such a project doesn't mean it will necessarily happen.  I am sure your contacts can't reveal that much as well since that is insider information.   Sprint just has too much on their plate right now to catch up to Network Vision and focusing on the spectrum auctions for the PCS H block and 600 MHz.

 

At this point the biggest issue I see is the integration of all the different types of networks, GSM/WCDMA/HSPA/CDMA/EVDO/LTE.  While I understand that Tmobile is moving to LTE and Tmobile is working to quickly convert the MetroPCS CDMA customers to WCDMA/HSPA/LTE, it is still going to take a few years for that integration to be complete.  Also I don't know what Tmobile's plan is for the overlapping Tmobile and MetroPCS towers.  Are they going to decommission all those MetroPCS towers OR cherry pick a few MetroPCS towers that make sense and convert them to Tmobile towers OR convert all MetroPCS towers to be Tmobile towers.  

 

I still feel that I would much rather have 4 major carriers than to have Sprint and Tmobile combined with 3 major carriers.  If Tmobile does start taking some market share from AT&T and Verizon and can just obtain some 600 MHz, they should be fine and I think the FCC would be less inclined to have Sprint merge with Tmobile.  

 

 

Yes, companies do these strategic, "what if" exercises all the time. But they don't take a year+ and they don't do an in depth analysis. We are talking about financial, project management and technical integration. Plus outside M&A teams and consultants. Sprint and T-Mobile were talking even before Softbank but the work has really picked up since. But like I said, whether it will happens or not or gets approved, that is something entirely different. All I know is that it is seriously being considered and vigorously studied.

[maximus1987/lou99]

Oh no, not this again. Like I said in the US Celluar thread, I don't think Sprint needs to accquire USCC. Some kind of LTE roaming deal would be perfect for both.

The problem occurs if ATT, Verizon go after USM and bring in TMO for the dismemberment to appease the FCC/DOJ.

For that possibility alone it'd be wise for sprint to go after USM.

[PythonFanPA]

  I have long publicly and politically argued against the stockpiling of spectrum, especially by the duopoly, and that has changed nothing -- other than to change me into a jaded, angry wireless veteran.  Trust me, you do not want that.

 

AJ

 

 

Mr. Stephenson, don't make me angry....you wouldn't like me when I'm angry.

[mozamcrew]

Let's face it. The US market is mature, no more Nextel subscribers to poach. Once Sprint gets its network house in order, that source will dry up as well. The market will reach some sort of equilibrium. So the only way to acquire subscribers is through acquisitions.

 

Or you can steal customers from other carriers over time....