WSJ: Sprint looking at T-Mobile purchase

[WiWavelength]

OK, so they won't use PCS 2 for LTE for a while. You got me .

If the MetroPCS sub conversion over to the T-Mobile network is as successful as expected and CDMA1X 1900 use declines dramatically, maybe then T-Mobile will consider selling off some excess PCS to Sprint, much as I suggested over a year ago.

 

http://s4gru.com/index.php?/blog/1/entry-326-newco-needs-to-drop-some-of-the-pcs-from-metropcs/

 

So Metro subs might lose coverage. They're low rent, right?

It is just a stereotype, but every stereotype starts with a kernel of truth. The nickname is not "GhettoPCS" for no reason.

 

AJ

[bigsnake49]

If the MetroPCS sub conversion over to the T-Mobile network is as successful as expected and CDMA1X 1900 use declines dramatically, maybe then T-Mobile will consider selling off some excess PCS to Sprint, much as I suggested over a year ago.

 

http://s4gru.com/index.php?/blog/1/entry-326-newco-needs-to-drop-some-of-the-pcs-from-metropcs/

 

It is just a stereotype, but every stereotype starts with a kernel of truth. The nickname is not "GhettoPCS" for no reason.

 

AJ

 

I am all for it, particularly where Sprint is deficient (20MHz or less). Maybe even in exchange for Sprint providing CDMA coverage to the Metro holdouts while their handsets last.

[bigsnake49]

If this merger were to happen, where does that leave Dish? They could be the beneficiaries of Sprint having to get rid of some of their spectrum (EBS). Would they have the stomach to develop a nationwide network? Or would they just play interference?

Edited December 14, 2013 by bigsnake49

[WiWavelength]

To bring this back around to the titular discussion, if a T-Mobile acquisition or partnership is in the offing, one tip off to watch for would be the inclusion of band 4 AWS LTE in the upcoming round of 2014 Sprint flagship level handsets.

 

AJ

[bigsnake49]

To bring this back around to the titular discussion, if a T-Mobile acquisition or partnership is in the offing, one tip off to watch for would be the inclusion of band 4 AWS LTE in the upcoming round of 2014 Sprint flagship level handsets.

 

AJ

 

Yep, that would be a dead giveaway! Quadband handsets, here they come!

[bigsnake49]

Of course this whole thing could be a leak by John Paulson to pump up his T-Mobile holdings before selling them.

Edited December 14, 2013 by bigsnake49

[utiz4321]

Sprint would have no reason to keep unlimited data and lower prices if it had the scaleable size, bulk and network size of AT&T or Verizon. They only do it because they have to right now.

 

It's obvious that Sprint was never really against "reducing competition," in the AT&T-T-Mo deal despite their pretense. They were just afraid of being in last place among the top four. Screw the customer.

None of these companies are trying to screw customers, this is hyperbolely and it takes things way to far. These companies are profit maximizing organization and if the cost of allowing unlimited smart phone data plans no longer offers the same payoffs that it once did because the structer of the market place and sprint did not change they would be doing a disservice to their shareholders. Many, many customers in the US DONT HAVE unlimited data and are fine. The two largest carriers do not offer unlimited data and they continue to grow (ie customer seem to like what they are getting for giving up unlimited data). If the market place doesn't reward unlimited data and it cost companies more why should they continue to offer it?

[GinaDee]

If Softbank was serious I would imagine they'd abandon plans on promoting and expanding CDMA in favor of an HSPA/LTE network building upon T-Mobile's infrastructure.  No more manually having to activate phones and finally being able to use any globally compatible phone on their network.  T-Mobile is doing it right with Metro PCS.  No more CDMA activations.  When you upgrade or replace the phone must be compatible with HSPA/LTE.  

 

I'm trying to picture the nightmare an inefficiency of two massive billing systems, hundreds of varying grandfathered rate plans, two completely differing corporate cultures and two incompatible voice networks while trying to implement Network Vision that is already falling behind schedule. 

[GinaDee]

If this merger were to happen, where does that leave Dish? They could be the beneficiaries of Sprint having to get rid of some of their spectrum (EBS). Would they have the stomach to develop a nationwide network? Or would they just play interference?

 

As much as I am not a fan of Dish (Direct TV fan here) I'd rather an American company like them buy out T-Mobile USA and keep an American owned wireless provider here in the States finally shedding their Euro roots.  

 

The only thing I did not like back in the day as a former Dish customer was their terrible offshore customer service.  Other than that I really had no major issues with them. 

 

Dish could help fund upcoming AWS or 600 MHz spectrum options down the road.  

[bigsnake49]

As much as I am not a fan of Dish (Direct TV fan here) I'd rather an American company like them buy out T-Mobile USA and keep an American owned wireless provider here in the States finally shedding their Euro roots.  

 

The only thing I did not like back in the day as a former Dish customer was their terrible offshore customer service.  Other than that I really had no major issues with them. 

 

Dish could help fund upcoming AWS or 600 MHz spectrum options down the road.  

 

I don't think that Dish can raise the $21B of market cap + $13B in debt = $34B that will be required to complete the deal. Softbank can.

[IamMrFamous07]

Divest T-Mobile's AWS? You must be kidding. No, that would not happen.

 

AJ

I just thought since sprint has 2.5 there wouldn't be a need for aws.

 

AJ you're very knowledgeable, if the two were to merge how can this merge be successful and not Nextel 2.0

[anthony.spina97]

I just thought since sprint has 2.5 there wouldn't be a need for aws.

 

AJ you're very knowledgeable, if the two were to merge how can this merge be successful and not Nextel 2.0

For starters, the present day Sprint has better management than pre-Nextel Sprint.

[IamMrFamous07]

For starters, the present day Sprint has better management than pre-Nextel Sprint.

Aka SoftBank lol

[WiWavelength]

I just thought since sprint has 2.5 there wouldn't be a need for aws.

 

The exclusion of AWS would mean loss of W-CDMA for millions of T-Mobile subs and loss of LTE for all T-Mobile subs.  Any Sprint-T-Mobile deal would be predicated on regulatory approval of the retention of most/all AWS.

 

AJ

[anthony.spina97]

Aka SoftBank lol

Yeah pretty much haha

[WiWavelength]

For starters, the present day Sprint has better management than pre-Nextel Sprint.

Aka SoftBank lol

 

Maybe, maybe not.  SoftBank is not the key -- except possibly for obtaining funding.

 

Remember, the current executive team did not oversee the merger nor the first few years of Sprint Nextel.  That was under Gary Forsee.  What Sprint leadership has learned since then is the need to "yank the Band-Aid off" as soon as possible.  Yes, it may hurt more right away, but it will get better much sooner.

 

For far too long, Sprint tried to coddle the iDENites, hoping to retain them.  But they saw the decline of iDEN as Sprint's fault -- a post hoc fallacy -- when it was actually the Nextel management decisions coming home to roost plus the inevitable decline of an outmoded technology.  The iDENites claimed that they must have PTT, so Sprint tried to appease them.  But in the end, most of them churned out of spite to operators, ironically, with poor PTT solutions.  Basically, the iDENites got with the times.

 

Had Sprint told the iDENites "Sorry, but iDEN lifespan is up -- it is going, going, gone," petitioned the FCC to allow CDMA2000 operation in SMR 800 MHz shortly after the merger, and shut down iDEN a good 3-4 years earlier, then the outcome of the merger could have been very different.  As a result, Sprint has since grasped that a drawn out strategy, trying to ease the pain slowly, just magnifies the pain later.

 

There is your explanation...

 

AJ

[anthony.spina97]

Wouldn't the AT&T/T-Mobile merger have been a monopoly because of how big they would have become? AT&T was already pretty darn big, so I assume if they acquired T-Mobile, it would have been rather unfair for everyone else. If Sprint and T-Mobile were to merge, they would still be in 3rd place based on subscriber base, but when their technologies and spectrum holdings are put together, they would be in a very good position.

 

I feel that if it were to happen, it would actually increase competition in the U.S., considering Sprint/T-Mobile could really threaten the Duopolies' first and second places, which would cause AT&T and Verizon to become more competitive to try and keep their leads.

 

That's just my opinion, everyone feel free to weigh in on how stupid or how smart it is

 

-Anthony

[MacinJosh]

If Sprint were to merge with T-Mobile, SoftBank would still keep the lower pricing strategy, albeit in a different form to give the Duopoly a run for their money. In essence, there will come a time during the fight that AT&T and Verizon will be forced to drop their pricing to compete. But as long as the Duopoly doesn't have viable competition, there will be no reason for them to drop their pricing. We need a strong 3rd carrier to force their hands.

 

 

Sent from Josh's iPhone 5 using Tapatalk 2

[bigsnake49]

I

 

"We also have 40 percent of our customer base using 800 MHz voice-capable handsets", Elfman said

And how many years has Sprint been selling 800-1xA phones? I've read on here since 2010.

Unless there's a secret W-CDMA or even GSM voice band class in SMR that all gsm phones happen to include, switching completely to 3GPP is not easily implement able for Sprint.

Regarding the ubiquity of 800 LTE required for volte:

"The company has also started deploying LTE in its 800 MHz spectrum, which was freed up from the closure of its Nextel iDEN network. Hesse said that Sprint will have 150 million POPs covered with 800 MHz LTE by the end of 2014"

Why only 150 million? Does the IBEZ contain 100 million people? What's the holdup?

If you expect 1xA to be immaterial by 2018 then Sprint should start putting volte on its phones NOW and following the 1xA pattern, you'll be lucky to have 50% penetration by 2018.
But it's even worse than that: sprint just had to add band class 10 to its CDMA phones and maybe some software upgrade to the CDMA baseband to enable the "advanced" of 1xA.

With volte, they'd have to put Qualcomm's expensive mdm modems even in flip phones to get their customer base PARTLY "ready" for volte.

 

There is 4 years between 2018 and 2014, so by that time, IBEZ will be straightened out. There is plenty of time for the integration to happen smoothly. Sprint and their advisors/consultants have been studying this problem for a while. 

[Ascertion]

If Softbank was serious I would imagine they'd abandon plans on promoting and expanding CDMA in favor of an HSPA/LTE network building upon T-Mobile's infrastructure. No more manually having to activate phones and finally being able to use any globally compatible phone on their network. T-Mobile is doing it right with Metro PCS. No more CDMA activations. When you upgrade or replace the phone must be compatible with HSPA/LTE.

 

I'm trying to picture the nightmare an inefficiency of two massive billing systems, hundreds of varying grandfathered rate plans, two completely differing corporate cultures and two incompatible voice networks while trying to implement Network Vision that is already falling behind schedule.

I know this is wishful thinking but there's no way they'd drop CDMA since they're this far in after reforming the spectrum for 800 CDMA. They would probably drop the T-Mobile HSDPA/Edge and refarn that spectrum to be used with LTE and add more bands for further capacity.

 

Sent from my LG-LS980

 

 

[bigsnake49]

I know this is wishful thinking but there's no way they'd drop CDMA since they're this far in after reforming the spectrum for 800 CDMA. They would probably drop the T-Mobile HSDPA/Edge and refarn that spectrum to be used with LTE and add more bands for further capacity.

 

Sent from my LG-LS980

 

Just remember it is only one channel in the 800Mhz SMR band for CDMA. They will refarm EVDO as more and more people have LTE handsets. They can keep 800 MHz CDMA for a while while they are moving to VoLTE. But they will not keep the legacy bands around forever. LTE and VoLTE is the future and that's that.

[lafester]

Not really much to add after reading 10 pages. Thanks to everyone for their input it really helps being able to look at the situation from all sides. I have always been for a tmo sprint merge and am happy to see that it still may happen.

 

The best thing that could happen is to open up the n5 (g2, gs4, note3 etc)  to use all tmo bands in addition to sprint. the tech is already here and vzw / att could not match that kind of flexibility.

[richy]

Re keeping an american provider. TMobile is not an American company if you consider it's ownership. Have a guess what the T stands for, and watch the deck chairs for towels! 

Since Verizon bought itself back from the brits (or at least the other half of itself) it is American owned in essence if not practically given the leverage. Genuinely not sure on AT&T. Foreign ownership could potentially be an issue, or it could be a boon. Softbank appears to have turned up with a check book and a whupping stick and seems to have no problems using either. 

 

In theory could sprint divest everything in excess of 100Mhz of 25\2600MHz spectrum as a concession and still realistically kick ass? I think they have a full 200MHz (give or take 1 or 2) here although they have less elsewhere. 

 

Re market cap and how much to pay for tmo. I had seen 20bn mentioned, given the concessions they would have to make and the debt they would acquire that could be a fair cost. Vzw paid a handsome price for itself, a 100% premium over the share price, but their business model is evil, sorry different (and they had to effectively pay vodafones tax liability as well which pushed up the price). Tmo's ARPU is the lowest of the big 4 by a long way. They are buffing the books for a sale so they are very aggressively marketing their product. As they continue to acquire more customers, existing customers upgrade their phones (and use more data) and peoples usage pattern continues to show rapidly increasing data usage then there is potentially a liability there which affects the value. 

 

I have often seen comments on here along the lines of, sprint is building a hell of a network but they have to fill it as well, in that sense tmo would fit the bill. Yes there's additional spectrum and customers, but without lots of funding for a continued lte rollout \ expansion and refarming they will hit walls quickly. Merging with Sprint could well do that for them, or it could result in chaos. 

 

Edit: the 18bn market cap for tmo is only after it went up 3 dollars ~10% today alone on speculation. 

[tsume]

I would like to see Sprint offer what T-Mobile does before doing this.  I think right now T-Mobile has the better plan structure, with the no contracts, the international data, the JUMP program including device insurance, etc.  If Sprint can commit to offering that to everyone then this merger would be a good idea.  It would be a big loss for competition in the US otherwise, as right now T-Mobile has the most competitive offering by far.  Sprint's device insurance alone costs more than T-Mobile's device insurance + early upgrade program.  Sprint's international data and roaming rates are in many cases worse than the larger carriers and are wholly noncompetitive.

[centermedic]

Oh sorry. Basically I see Sprint taking a monkey see money do approach. Play it safe if you will.

And this is the problem Sprint faces. When it does take the lead on something and it does not quite work out they get criticized fore ever and a day(remember wimax?). When they take the safe route they get criticized. And when they maintain the one thing that makes them distinctive(unlimited data) they get criticized. It is also disheartening that a member here would criticize Sprint for its comparatively slow LTE roll out. This has been explained ad naseum.