Network Vision/LTE - Upper Central Valley Market (Sacramento, Stockton, Redding, Eureka & Reno/Lake Tahoe)
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Bribery. No discussion yet on whether the two laws will be revoked (which should happen). https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2024/05/att-paid-bribes-to-get-two-major-pieces-of-legislation-passed-us-govt-says/ -
https://www.fierce-network.com/wireless/t-mobiles-appetite-more-25-ghz-alive-and-well?__cf_chl_tk=E8B8E2cXIEfkSd2I6oKIMlE1.2OR2YbUh7Dl9Kkt_Os-1715722620-0.0.1.1-1770 Discusses pending deal for more 2.5Ghz for T-Mobile that may ultimately benefit AT&T.
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If they're splitting it up, there's nothing stopping T-Mobile from doing a deal first and then the rest of the company being bought by Verizon or AT&T at a later date. I can't see why you'd have to have both lined up at once. I'm reminded of when nTelos shut down. They sold off the PCS spectrum they had in the "eastern market" (Richmond/Norfolk) to T-Mobile where they didn't have the Sprint deal first, and then later did the sale to Sprint and Shentel. - Trip -
Reportedly Verizon has backed out, but that could be a negotiating tactic. T-Mobile needs another purchaser. They are doing a mmWave spectrum swap with AT&T, so maybe them. Could always go with a spectrum speculator. The duo may not want the debt on their books until 2026. I think the towers and customers may be dumped (handled separately).
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I'm wondering which geographic areas T-Mobile might be interested in obtaining, or if it's strictly a spectrum sale of some kind. In Virginia, US Cellular got three of the B41 licenses, including two in areas I frequent. These two are in an area where US Cellular is severely spectrum constrained--just one block of CLR (B5) and one 5x5 in AWS-3 (B66), all running LTE. (So 10x10 and 5x5. Select towers also have B48 LTE on them, which is clearly at least 20 dB weaker than B5/66.) I could definitely see interest from T-Mobile in the B41 licenses, but would have a hard time picturing US Cellular trying to continue serving these areas if it can't use spectrum to beef up its already-overwhelmed cell sites with more capacity. (They keep adding towers to this very rural area to make up for it.) Would T-Mobile buy out the area entirely to get a hold of the B41 licenses (and the B66 couldn't hurt either)? Given US Cellular's strangehold over the area, would it even sell in that eventuality? And then what would happen to the B5 spectrum? Lots of questions. Got my fingers crossed for T-Mobile obtaining the area and keeping most or all of the sites, as it could quickly and easily make reliable rural broadband a thing in the area, especially given how the Shentel merger went. But I really have no sense of how likely it actually is. - Trip
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