RedSpark

This merger doesn't need to happen. Sprint is completely capable of being a competitive player in the marketplace without resorting to a merger with T-Mobile. I keep thinking back to AT&T which wanted to merge with T-Mobile... and very similar promises were made about how competition would be preserved. And then that Merger Document leaked and it was clear that the merger was BS. For the first time the letter pegs the cost of bringing AT&T's LTE coverage from 80% to 97% at $3.8 billion -- quite a cost difference from the $39 billion price tag on the T-Mobile deal. The push for 97% coverage apparently came from AT&T marketing, who was well aware that leaving LTE investment at 80% would leave them at a competitive disadvantage to Verizon. Marketing likely didn't want a repeat of the Luke Wilson map fiasco of a few years back, when Verizon made AT&T look foolish for poor 3G coverage. AT&T was willing to spend 10x the amount of money over a network build cost to knock T-Mobile as a competitor off the market. None of this needs to happen here. Sprint has to keep paying down its debt, which over time will free up additional funds for CapEx. Network improves, better customer experience means more customers which means more funds to pay down debt. Repeat. This is already happening and it's why Sprint isn't in a death spiral now. Here's what Sprint needs to do right now: 1) Fire leadership in the marketing department. Sprint's marketing message is inconsistent and incoherent. There's no real brand message/advantage with "1% difference". Sprint should be saying "Great service at a great price"... and deliver that. That's it. 2) Fire leadership in the website department. Sprint's website is a tangle of non-skinned legacy content mixed with skinned-over legacy content. One crappy retail store might affect a subset of people, but a crappy website affects everyone visiting it. Sprint needs a "Tiger Team" to fix this pronto. 3) Sign national deals for Magic Box with major retailers: CVS/Walgreens, Safeway, Target, etc. Place Magic Boxes in every qualifying address/location. Put a sticker on the entrance which says Sprint Magic Box. Make it clear that people will have coverage when they go in the store. More time in the store means more money spent in the store. This should be obvious to the retail partners. 4) Stand up a new profitable division: The Event Coverage Group. This group would have a page on the Sprint website through which event organizers could request COWS/COLTS or perhaps one day "Flying Magic Boxes". Sprint would profit from doing this by charging for the coverage. When the Sprint crews go to events, they need to bring Sprint Branding with them. If it's a music event, get the TIDAL team there. This is branding. This is effective brand messaging. This is exposure. This merger doesn't need to happen for Sprint to succeed in the long run as a viable competitor. Ultimately, the joke will be on us in the form of higher prices if it goes through IMHO.

That's a very good point. I've been on Sprint with an iPhone 6/6s/7 and soon an 8 (once my screen protectors arrive).... all of which support VoLTE. As you said, Sprint has these numbers. I imagine there will be a set deadline for folks to get a new VoLTE-capable device if this goes through. Perhaps there will be "upgrade incentives".

If you want the upgraded Netflix plans, you pay the difference over what T-Mobile pays for the base one.

According to Sprint (Investor Update - Fiscal 1Q17: Page 8): Postpaid carrier aggregation capable phones, which allow for higher download data speeds, were 81 percent of postpaid phones activated during the quarter, increasing the number of these phones within the phone base to 60 percent. Sprint no longer reports its actual Tri-band LTE device percentage as part of the breakdown. It last did this in the Investor Update - Fiscal 4Q16: Page 8: Postpaid smartphones^ represented 94 percent of the ending postpaid phone connection base compared to 92 percent at the end of the year-ago period and 94 percent at the end of the prior quarter. During the quarter, 98 percent of postpaid phones sold were smartphones. Postpaid tri-band LTE phones^ represented 84 percent of the ending postpaid phone connection base compared to 69 percent at the end of the year-ago period and 82 percent at the end of the prior quarter. During the quarter, 96 percent of postpaid phones sold were tri-band. From this combined with other info in the Investor Reports, it's possible to extrapolate how many single/dual band LTE devices there are out there, and guesstimate how many non-LTE devices there are.

Where do you think you’d switch to?

Wouldn’t that be something if the Merger fails and Sprint walks away with the breakup fee? In fact, I hope that happens. Put it into CapEx.

This is starting to sound pretty real... I really don’t want this to happen.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/04/t-mobile-sprint-deal-moving-forward-but-some-not-happy-with-price.html Talks between T-Mobile and Sprint for a stock-for-stock deal that makes Deutsche Telekom the controlling owner are moving forward, sources tell CNBC's David Faber. However, some T-Mobile shareholders are frustrated with the deal price, these sources said. On and on it goes....

I feel like we're waiting for the other shoe to drop on this merger... right after the iPhone X launches. I really don't want it to happen. Sprint is completely capable of making it on its own and I don't want to see T-Mobile running things.

Great writeup! Sprint should update its "Coverage Solutions" page (https://www.sprint.com/landings/airave/) to reflect the availability of this new Coverage enhancing options.

Why does this stuff keep happening?

The Blog Post says: Last week in Midlothian, TX, located about 30 miles outside of Dallas, we began testing Sprint Magic Box as an aerial small cell solution to add to our extended network toolbox. This aerial small cell is designed to be a rapidly deployable, cost-effective solution capable of extending our 2.5 GHz data service initially up to 10 square miles. Because of Sprint’s 2.5 GHz spectrum advantage it is possible to wirelessly connect the flying small cell to a neighboring base station on one channel (in this case 6 miles away) and use another channel to provide coverage for customers. Based on this, it doesn’t look like it has to be above the stadium.

I myself don't, but the answer is yes based on everything I've read.

http://newsroom.sprint.com/sprint-magic-box-takes-flight.htm A flying Magic Box... That’s pretty neat!

If we take Sprint’s Executives at their word, Sprint is moving expeditiously on the network now that the debt load has been addressed. Marcelo: http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4107108

If a merger is announced, I'm concerned about what that means for Sprint's network investment, service quality and customer service until that merger is completed.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-23/softbank-is-said-to-be-willing-to-take-market-price-for-sprint Oh no... Seriously?

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-sprint-m-a-tmobile-exclusive/exclusive-t-mobile-sprint-close-to-agreeing-deal-terms-sources-idUSKCN1BX1EK “Japan’s SoftBank Group Corp (9984.T), which controls Sprint, will own 40 to 50 percent of the combined company, while T-Mobile majority owner Deutsche Telekom (DTEGn.DE) will own a majority stake, two of the sources said.” “Once terms are finalized, due diligence by the two companies will follow and a deal is expected by the end of October, though talks may still fall through, the sources said.” Legere as CEO.... Please don’t do this Sprint. Please.

T-Mobile has increased its Deprioritization threshold from 32GB to 50GB: https://newsroom.t-mobile.com/news-and-blogs/unlimited-prioritzation-increase.htm Should Sprint respond by increasing its Deprioritization threshold up from 23GB?

Agreed. How would T-Mobile handle all the Device Leases?

Round and round we go... https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/19/t-mobile-and-sprint-are-in-active-talks-about-a-merger.html I can't imagine having Legere as CEO. It's painful to think about.

I wonder if the new glass back has any impact on antenna performance.

I'm curious how much headroom the technology has going forward and if it would be possible. Based on what you've said, doesn't sound like it is.

Haha! Nice. So next year's iPhone could either contain a gimped-as-necessary Qualcomm X20 to match whatever Intel is offering at that point, most likely the Intel 7560... or if Apple decides to drop Qualcomm altogether... then Intel for everybody I guess... "Gigabit Class", HPUE (perhaps), and 4x4 MIMO....

The iPhone 6/6 Plus added Band 41. The 6S/6S Plus support 2CA. Added Band 12. The 7/7 Plus supported 2CA at first and then received an OTA update to enable 3CA support. Qualcomm X12 Modem, but detuned to match Intel Modem in other model. The 8/8 Plus support 3CA. Qualcomm X16 Modem, but detuned to match Intel Modem in other model. Also, no HPUE and no 4x4 MIMO.