T-Mobile's new "uncarrier" strategy/plans

[S4GRU]

Besides not having the iPhone (until now), the other reason why T-Mobile was drowning: no low-frequency spectrum for coverage; it is the ONLY one of the Big 4 with none.

In articles on Tmonews, there is a consistent theme in the comments regarding T-Mobile: their speeds are really fast but outside of suburban areas, you're left with EDGE or roaming.

 

Sure they're upgrading to LTE but even there, they're going to cover 200 million . . . but their HSPA+ reaches 225 million

http://newsroom.t-mo...news&id=1802242

 

So they're (probably) not even going to upgrade their entire network to LTE.

 

Sure they might've had a chance with their new plans but then AT&T went and did this:

http://www.fiercewir...rand/2013-05-09

 

unlimited talk, text

HSPA+, throttled after limit reached:

2 GB = $55

7GB = $70

 

"But it doesn't include LTE!"

So what? 4Mbps is fast enough for anything.

Also, you'll get AT&T's HSPA+ coverage of 290million

 

I'll take 290million + 4Mbps vs 225million and 25Mbps

 

I really do want T-Mobile to succeed but is that possible?

They're trying to be a national carrier without the solid coverage and they're trying to be a prepaid carrier without the MetroPCS low prices.

 

They're like an oversized MetroPCS which is actually what their strategy may be.

Listening to John Legere, having gobs of AWS spectrum in 90% of top 25 metro areas is going to save T-Mobile.

 

Many good points. And the amount of geographic area covered between 225M POP's and 290M is huge. 225M POP's just is little islands around urban areas. That extra 65M is everything in between. Maybe triple or quadruple the square mileage of just the 225M. Probably every 10M POP's after the first 225M bring a very significant increase in tertiary/rural coverage.

 

I think most of us don't expect Tmo to start adding new sites to expand coverage. We're really talking about just adding HSPA/HSPA+ and, or LTE to their entire network. All those EDGE and GPRS sites that Tmo is spending so much money on providing T1's to. It will be cheaper in the long run to convert those to Ethernet backhaul and add high speed wireless service.

 

T-Mobile probably is just banking on urban customers. Believing they can survive on that. But I believe that to be faulty logic. That assumes that urban customers always stay within their urban cluster. And maybe some do. But a large enough percentage of them care about extended coverage for varying reasons. Probably 40% or more. And that's too big of a number to ignore.

 

I understand that Tmo has to choose their battles with the resources they have. And I would probably focus on urban first too if I was in their shoes. However, I think I would also have long term plans for the entire footprint and would be telling everyone about that. Give them hope to stay. Sprint has continually beat that drum, and it has probably helped keep millions. And if you want rural LTE coverage from someone other than VZW or ATT, Sprint will be the only option for millions.

 

I always root for Tmo. Not just because I also have a Tmo phone, but because I root for every carrier that help keep the duopoly in check. The stronger Tmo is, the better it is for all consumers.

 

Robert

[maximus1987/lou99]

Many good points. And the amount of geographic area covered between 225M POP's and 290M is huge. 225M POP's just is little islands around urban areas. That extra 65M is everything in between. Maybe triple or quadruple the square mileage of just the 225M. Probably every 10M POP's after the first 225M bring a very significant increase in tertiary/rural coverage.

 

I think most of us don't expect Tmo to start adding new sites to expand coverage. We're really talking about just adding HSPA/HSPA+ and, or LTE to their entire network. All those EDGE and GPRS sites that Tmo is spending so much money on providing T1's to. It will be cheaper in the long run to convert those to Ethernet backhaul and add high speed wireless service.

 

T-Mobile probably is just banking on urban customers. Believing they can survive on that. But I believe that to be faulty logic. That assumes that urban customers always stay within their urban cluster. And maybe some do. But a large enough percentage of them care about extended coverage for varying reasons. Probably 40% or more. And that's too big of a number to ignore.

 

I understand that Tmo has to choose their battles with the resources they have. And I would probably focus on urban first too if I was in their shoes. However, I think I would also have long term plans for the entire footprint and would be telling everyone about that. Give them hope to stay. Sprint has continually beat that drum, and it has probably helped keep millions. And if you want rural LTE coverage from someone other than VZW or ATT, Sprint will be the only option for millions.

 

I always root for Tmo. Not just because I also have a Tmo phone, but because I root for every carrier that help keep the duopoly in check. The stronger Tmo is, the better it is for all consumers.

 

Robert

 

"T-Mobile probably is just banking on urban customers. Believing they can survive on that."

I think the reason they've had that mindset - up until now - is because Deutsche Telekom thought their German/European strategy would work here but Europe is far more densely populated.

 

" All those EDGE and GPRS sites that Tmo is spending so much money on providing T1's to. It will be cheaper in the long run to convert those to Ethernet backhaul and add high speed wireless service."

If they simply do that, their 3G/LTE coverage increase, in land area, would be huge!

 

Take a look at their native coverage (which is equivalent to their prepaid data coverage)

http://prepaid-phone...repaid-coverage

And zoom in until you get color gradients. I live in Detroit suburb but frequently go outside the green 3G/LTE areas.

Like you said, if TMUS could change the yellow to green, that'd be huge.

 

"However, I think I would also have long term plans for the entire footprint and would be telling everyone about that."

That's another thing that worries me. TMUS isn't saying anything about LTE expansion AFTER 200 million. They keep crowing how they're investing $4bil but $3bil is coming from AT&T breakup fee

http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2012/02/t-mobile-takes-3-billion-att-breakup-fee-builds-4g-lte-network/

and the "rest" is coming from selling their towers to Crown Castle

http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/t-mobile-sells-towers-crown-castle-24b/2012-09-28

 

AT&T to the rescue!

Edited May 10, 2013 by maximus1987

[Conan Kudo]

"However, I think I would also have long term plans for the entire footprint and would be telling everyone about that."

That's another thing that worries me. TMUS isn't saying anything about LTE expansion AFTER 200 million. They keep crowing how they're investing $4bil but $3bil is coming from AT&T breakup fee

http://arstechnica.c...4g-lte-network/

and the "rest" is coming from selling their towers to Crown Castle

http://www.fiercewir...-24b/2012-09-28

 

AT&T to the rescue!

 

There was information distributed to investors at the Capital Markets Day for Deutsche Telekom in December.

Essentially, T-Mobile is steadily investing in network upgrades and expansions through 2015. However, these numbers are conservative, and likely have been raised already.

[maximus1987/lou99]

There was information distributed to investors at the Capital Markets Day for Deutsche Telekom in December.

Essentially, T-Mobile is steadily investing in network upgrades and expansions through 2015. However, these numbers are conservative, and likely have been raised already.

 

I wish they'd break it out by much is going to network expansion - more POPs - vs just network capacity investments or is the OPEX?

[Fraydog]

Two points:

 

1. I found this rural T-Mobile upgrade today.

 

https://twitter.com/...3957248/photo/1

 

 

This is a recent upgrade so if Legere is saying that he isn't doing anything regarding rural areas, that's double talk.

 

2. http://www.tmonews.c...mment-888496482

 

n your comment about Sprint, you might not be aware that T-Mobile's marketing policy right now is to not even mention Sprint's name, in order to demonstrate that we don't even consider them worth the airtime. That's from the CMO's mouth at the all-hands meeting following the TMUS IPO.

 

Is this true? It looks similar to the tmoengineer who posted on reddit...

 

Hesse and Son may have to give Mr. Legere this sort of treatment. Just picture Masa Son as the guy saying "failure to communicate".

 

 

The line at the end, sounds like something John Legere would say.

[milan03]

Two points:

 

1. I found this rural T-Mobile upgrade today.

 

https://twitter.com/...3957248/photo/1

 

 

This is a recent upgrade so if Legere is saying that he isn't doing anything regarding rural areas, that's double talk.

Hey that's Flexi BTS! Not sure why is it at the bottom of the site. They're usually mounting it at the top. Interesting!

[Fraydog]

Hey that's Flexi BTS! Not sure why is it at the bottom of the site. They're usually mounting it at the top. Interesting!

 

That isn't much different than Sprint's GMO sites where they have the RRU's on the ground. There's four Flexi racks there, so I'm guessing two are GSM/WCDMA/LTE channel cards and the other two are the radio units. It's a four sector tower so each rack feeds two sectors.

 

It's replacing nearly 10 year old equipment so I'm guessing T-Mobile engineers had to move quickly and that's what ended up happening.

[maximus1987/lou99]

Once they become a publicly traded NewCo, will they be able to spend capex as before? I'm curious to see if T-Mobile will be able to phase out EDGE. T-Mobile will ultimately need a Softbank since AT&T didn't work out and DT can eventually slowly sell off their stakes.

 

"phase out edge"

They said they are going to keep one GSM/EDGE carrier on for M2M and customers with 2G-only phones.

 

http://www.fiercewireless.com/pages/slides-t-mobile-usa-and-metropcs-merge

 

I wonder why they don't use that 2x5 block for LTE in Band 2 and woo Sprint iPhone customers with Band 25 iPhones cause Band 25 is a superset of Band 2.

 

 

"slowly sell off their stake"

The "lockup" clause: DT is barred from publicly selling shares for 18 months.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-10/deutsche-telekom-sweetens-metropcs-terms-in-best-final-offer-.html

 

This might have the effect that if TMUS starts to founder - cause they don't have low freq spectrum - then DT might make a capital injection to not see their 74% totally decimated in value.