bigsnake49

13 hours ago, happyGuy said:

I want to start off by saying I really don't know much about this stuff... but other than Sprint customers, what exactly would tmobile get from this merger?

Is that high band sprint spectrum really desirable? for example say they merge with Dish instead... tmobile could double their midband and add 22mhz more to their low band (vs just 14 with sprint).

I'm just not sure about being saddled with tens of billions in debt via sprint would be worth it. sprint coverage is almost the same as tmobile so merging with Sprint would not expand their coverage very much vs what it is now... 

 and if they would have to divest some of their spectrum, then add the cost of converting all those sprint towers and replacing people's phones.. seems like it would be a lot more cost effective to go after dish (unless tmobile was mostly interested in gaining sprint's customer base).

I also think if sprint and tmobile merge it might force verizon's hand and they go after Dish. Then again it seems that nobody likes dealing with Charlie...

 

Dish also has a lot of debt that T-Mobile will assume if they were to merge with Dish. 

2.5 GHz spectrum is great for capacity and Sprint has a lot of it. It is very attractive spectrum when deployed on a network as dense as T-Mobile's. 

Low band spectrum is great for rural and exurban locales and also for in-building propagation. You need high, mid and low band spectrum to have a good network. 

2 hours ago, Nextel49 said:

todays update might be that may not happen https://gizmodo.com/what-s-going-on-with-the-rumored-not-good-t-mobile-and-1818975719

I am sure that it will happen. It is in T-Mobile's best interest that it happens. They get Sprint's treasure trove of spectrum and eliminate a price competitor.  Sprint could only compete on price not network. This is actually the best time to buy Sprint, before it gets its house in order and improves its network to competitive levels. They are going to get Sprint for cheap!

It is obvious that Masa Son made a mistake investing in Sprint. Should have invested in T-Mobile instead. He wants out of the business since it is actually a pretty mature business. Sprint if left on its own will improve the network and be competitive particularly if they maintain their prices lower than all others. But it is not a growth business. Masa wants to get his money out and invested in something more growth oriented.

14 hours ago, nexgencpu said:

I wonder how many current TMobile devices besides the obvious ones (Samsung GS and iPhones) support B25/26/41.

It seems that most modern Sprint devices have B4/12, so I wonder how well that will work.

I know that the iPhone6 and 6s were universal phones in that there was not a GSM and a CDMA iphone. iPhone 7, 8 and X have different SKUs for AT&T and T-Mobile and for the CDMA carriers. 7, 8 and X North American SKUs all support the same LTE bands if I am not mistaken but the GSM carrier models do not support CDMA. The V20 has different SKUs for the 4 carriers.

1 hour ago, dro1984 said:

Snake.... don't you think they won't do any network openings until the Merger is finalized and "closed"... meaning complete?   

I'm not thinking they will immediately open LTE or any of their network for Sprint for  just "announcing" a plan to merge...   Just my thoughts..  I'd love it if they did, but I'm not feeling it...

As soon as the merger is approved they will open up roaming on each other's networks.

1 hour ago, WiWavelength said:

Right after an announcement?  Not likely.  The FCC, FTC, and DOJ would have a field day.

Soon after a consent order?  Okay.

AJ

I thought that AT&T opened up their network soon after the announcement or their merger with T-Mobile. I could be wrong though... . Maybe I am confusing it with the break up fee...

1 hour ago, jonathanm1978 said:

Realistically, I'm curious about how soon after a merger is announced will we see them make it where TMO LTE is native for Sprint and vice versa

Pretty much right away.

4 hours ago, Terrell352 said:

http://www.speedtest.net/insights/blog/sprint-t-mobile-merger/

Ookla input on merging spectrum.

I like Milan a lot but deducing coverage from speed tests is just wrong. 

On 9/25/2017 at 10:12 PM, RedSpark said:

If we take Sprint’s Executives at their word, Sprint is moving expeditiously on the network now that the debt load has been addressed.

Marcelo: http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4107108

Not necessarily the debt load but the interest on that debt load ($2.5B/year). They have been and will be working to reduce the 7 and 8% and higher loans into 3% by basically borrowing against the spectrum and their network and the device financing. They can use the savings to accelerate network spending or paying down the principal. 

In that transcript, Claure more than once mentioned that he wants to address the device acquisition and financing part. Maybe let Apple and Samsung or whoever finance the devices and the carriers get a 5% finders fee?

T-Mobile/Sprint will have 67.7 postpaid subscribers with 77 million and 109 million for AT&T and Verizon. Still weak compared to AT&T and definitely Verizon.

To add to my previous post, it will take them a little while to physically consolidate the sites so that they're using the same equipment rack and the same base stations will probably take couple of years. Also they could probably start using CA on 1900Mhz right away but they have to wait for spectrum swaps to deploy wider channels.

The integration will be a technical challenge but I am sure that when complete will result in a very vigorous network.

2 hours ago, red_dog007 said:

I'd just wonder how long it would take to get the networks to mesh.  How integrated would they need to be to have seemless handoffs, especially with voice.  Then how long will this integration take to get to that point. That's if they even integrate networks. Maybe they could say just point Sprint's equipment to TMobile's servers, push some updates and be integrated.  Not knowing a thing about how their networks work, this is the grey area and the area I'd be concerned with.

 For data, I can see just open up bands to each others customers, retransmit requests/packets if hopping networks.  But not sure that will go well for VoLTE.  Plus there could be a lot of lost packets which wouldn't be good for a lot of services.  I'd imagine at first say as a Sprint customer I would be able to use the TMobile network, but when the phone scans it would scan for Sprint channels first then scan for TMobile if it can't find Sprint.

 

Ultimately they will need to choose one of the  EPCs and integrate around that. Then each enodeB will need to be pointed to the EPC and each integrated site will need to be assigned to each enodeB. VOLTE and SVRCC/WCDMA fallback will be the voice solution but will take time. 

32 minutes ago, utiz4321 said:

I dont know if that is true. They have blue print for that in project fi but I dont know if they will make this available before the merger is approved.  Besides, the really exciting stuff is massive mimo on Sprint's side and 600 on t mobile. If those two things are delay I will be kind of bummed. 

It usually takes 180 days or less for the feds to make a decision. As soon as the merger is approved then the first and easiest thing is to let each other's customers roam on each other's network if the appropriate bands are available on the phones. Voice integration based on VOLTE with WCDMA will take a while longer. I expect that 600MHz expansion in rural areas not subject to repacking will proceed uninterrupted. I also expect small cell deployment to proceed uninterrupted. However macro expansion will probably be postponed. I expect massive mimo to proceed as scheduled.

7 minutes ago, MrZorbatron said:

They are on par only in their own eyes.  AT&T is not nearly on par with Verizon coverage wise, especially geographically, and even further behind in consistency of coverage (swiss cheese).  T-Mobile won't be on par with either one in the near future.  They both have more than enough money to get ahead without breaking a sweat if T-Mobile starts to get anywhere close.

From my own observations, for data, it is Verizon first for coverage and consistency, then AT&T then T-Mobile. Voice wise it is Sprint in third place instead of T-Mobile.

50 minutes ago, utiz4321 said:

Yup, this is my biggest concern.  1 yr for the merger to get approved and 1 yr to integrate the two companies before they start building the network out would be annoying. 

As a Sprint customer you will see immediate benefits since you will be able to freely roam on T-Mobile's  data network. Voice integration will take a bit more.

2 hours ago, jefbal99 said:

My biggest question is which of these two will happen to get regulator approval

1. How much spectrum will new T-Mobint have to divest and who will it go to?

or

2. What terrible concessions will Big Red and the DeathStar get to keep them happy and further screw the industry?

I don't think that any spectrum needs to be divested. However in order to make the merger palatable to regulators Sprint/T-mobile will need to promise to match/exceed coverage of Verizon. They also might preemptively agree to host Dish's network on commercially reasonable terms and might even divest part of the network to them. There will no longer be a need for two EPCs duplicate enodeB can be eliminated, duplicate PCS antennas might not be needed (although I don't think that holds true with multi element, multi-frequency panels). Of course duplicate sites will be eliminated.

42 minutes ago, davidtm said:

My question regards the fate of current hardware after such a merger. As I currently use a Sprint HTC U11, I think I'll be fine, but will need to look up what bands it can handle, and whether any of those will be pertinent.  Will VoLTE happen sooner, or later? How will the netowrk handle switching us from band to band, if it's across networks?

You would be roaming on the other if your phone supports it. It will just be unlimited roaming. VOLTE will happen sooner rather than later but WCDMA might be used as a bridge.

Since it looks like the merger might finally be agreed on, there are a few issues to consider, mainly voice integration. For example the AT&T/T-Mobile version of the iPhone 8 and 7 support the same LTE bands as the Sprint/Verizon ones but do not support CDMA. So they will not be able to take advantage of CDMA coverage where there is not WCDMA coverage. On the other hand 6s and 6 variants support CDMA. Conversely the Sprint and Verizon variants support WCDMA so Sprint   subscribers will be able to take advantage of expanded WCDMA coverage and simultaneous voice/data. Now I believe that integration will be on VOLTE. Data will be no problem and both sides will benefit from the each other's network especially if Sprint does not postpone network improvements once the merger is announced. I am looking forward to wider PCS channels as they do some spectrum horse trading.

1 hour ago, ericdabbs said:

Why would u think that sprint will dramatically reduce capex?  Just continue to execute and people will move over to sprint.  I am pretty sure this latest move by verizon with the GoUnlimited plan to limit video to 480p and 600 kbps for hotspot for base unlimited plan is driving people away from verizon.  If sprint is truly expanding B41 to 3xCA with 4xCA and deploying massive small cells soon then eventually the root metrics will catch up.  To assume that 3 carriers is the only answer is crazy.  

Tmobile themselves have demonstrated it can single handingly draw customers away from the big 2 with their net adds.  Sprint just needs to copy those types of moves and offer deals to current customers.  I think a 2 lines for $60 deal for 55+ years old would be a fantastic program to draw customers even though people will ise workarounds to sign up for it.

Because Sprint has couple of substantial debt payments over the next couple of years and their cash flow is not healthy enough to make those payments and also maintain Capex. Unless they can reschedule their payments, those loom large in their financial picture.

1 hour ago, ericdabbs said:

Why would u think that sprint will dramatically reduce capex?  Just continue to execute and people will move over to sprint.  I am pretty sure this latest move by verizon with the GoUnlimited plan to limit video to 480p and 600 kbps for hotspot for base unlimited plan is driving people away from verizon.  If sprint is truly expanding B41 to 3xCA with 4xCA and deploying massive small cells soon then eventually the root metrics will catch up.  To assume that 3 carriers is the only answer is crazy.  

Tmobile themselves have demonstrated it can single handingly draw customers away from the big 2 with their net adds.  Sprint just needs to copy those types of moves and offer deals to current customers.  I think a 2 lines for $60 deal for 55+ years old would be a fantastic program to draw customers even though people will ise workarounds to sign up for it.

it's not just Verizon that limits video to 480p. T-Mobile is also.

38 minutes ago, ericdabbs said:

I am 100% against this merger.  Sprint and Tmobile should remain separate to keep the competition at 4 players.  If currently there were 7 semi major players in the wireless industry, I would agree with you that consolidation of a few more players would be beneficial for the industry due to LTE and 5G going forward requiring high amounts of spectrum bandwidths.  However we are now down to 4 players which to me is already a good number to maintain nationally.  Comparing how it looked in 2003 doesn't matter back then because we didn't have LTE that required at least 5x5 , 10x10, 20x20 MHz bandwidth.

It would have sucked if we still have 7 major players in the 600 MHz auction with only 70 MHz available for purchase and each buying a nationwide 5x5 block of spectrum instead of fewer players buy a bigger chunk of spectrum to deploy larger bandwidths.

Sprint needs to be worrying about getting itself into gear and try to deploy its B41 LTE in small cells and densify its network instead of looking for a bailout in Tmobile to save them.  

While as a greedy consumer you may want to keep them at 4 with a weak Sprint competing strictly on price because they cannot afford to  expand their network, as an objective observer you have to admit that this is a highly capital incentive industry and the more customers you can spread capex  over the better. I do believe that a third strong competitor will be better for consumers than two large ones and two weaker ones. A combined t-mobile/Sprint can compete on network quality and not just price

Charter is raising prices because of the content providers. Nothing new, every cable co is raising prices. All I can speak for is my area and they have kept the internet prices the same as Brighthouse Networks which they acquired. In our area, their cable prices are very reasonable. Their internet speeds are better than what I pay for by a good 10-15Mbps.

TWC was the troubled franchise and were despised in pretty much all of their areas with the exception of NYC. It will take a little while for them to straighten everything out. Just like it will take a little while for T-Mobile to straighten Sprint out, although Sprint is on its way.

2 hours ago, red_dog007 said:

I don't think a merger will help consumers much.  TMobile capex is $5b.  Sprint might spend $5b. A merged company still could have $10b, but it will take years and a LOT of money to consolidate assets. There is going to be a lot of work, and a lot of money that will not go into making the network better, but making 2 networks 1.

If you want to see a combined company make ProjectFi your carrier.

Just look at some recent mergers.  Charter is doing horrible. AT&T and DirecTV brought no value but just increased TV bills. Large acquisitions tend not to benefit the customers but more so investors and those on the board who get millions for making a deal happen.

As an investor I can see the excitement, but not so much a customer.

Where did you see that Charter is doing horribly?

11 hours ago, greenbastard said:

At&t buying Dish? Not a chance!

Now if Dish were to divest their unused spectrum, then that's a different story.

I meant their spectrum mainly but Verizon could buy Dish with no anti-trust problems.

From the graph above it is evident that contrary to popular belief, T-Mobile has been cannibalizing Sprint mainly. That's not really competing against the big 2 now, is it?

5 hours ago, joshnys8913 said:

I am VERY much against the merger, for one thing most of the people I know like options (more the better I think) Plus I always wonder who will gobble up US Cellular eventually. I don't know much about US Cellular since I don't live in any of their areas. Secondly the only way I would (if I was the FCC) to let T-mobile/Sprint merge would be for Sprint to distribute Spectrum to Verizon and AT&T for FAIRNESS purposes. If the merger goes through that means T-mobile would have the most spectrum on top of the 600MHZ they just bought. I don't know I just think Sprint can do it on their own, in my opinion what really has held Sprint up is the 800 IBEZ issue. Again just my point of view, not that it matters really. 

If AT&T or Verizon want spectrum they can buy Dish.