bigsnake49

6 minutes ago, grapkoski said:

Just a reminder, the merger hasn't closed - there may be some financial renegotation, but I am sure they are working through the night on that.

Yeah, it has not and they will be burning the midnight oil. They probably have been working on that behind the scenes. Both companies have charged in the neighborhood of $150M-200M in merger related expenses the last quarter of 2019.

3 minutes ago, dro1984 said:

You called it right from the beginning!    The states case rested on pure speculation and no actual proof.   Done. 

I thought that the feds went way way beyond with the structural remedies they imposed. The merger was clearly not anti-competitive. Even the combined company will be at a severe disadvantage vis a vis their competitors when it comes to revenue, number of postpaid subs, EBIDTA, etc.

I am very happy that Dish's spectrum will finally get deployed. I am really interested in what Comcast is going to do with their 600MHz spectrum.

Just now, dro1984 said:

I'm hoping the states do not appeal.   Enough wasted tax money!   

Even if they do, T-Mobile will play hardball this time and move quickly. They deferred the first time. They will not this time.

1 minute ago, Trip said:

Okay, now I can go back to worrying about what will happen to Shentel.

- Trip

Good ole Trip! From what I understand T-Mobile is not great in the Shentel area. This too will be resolved. They would be stupid to abrogate the agreement. They will look at each of these agreements as to what is best for the overall company. 

27 minutes ago, marioc21 said:

Looks like the official ruling is out.  It's now officially, official.  

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/11/sprint-soars-after-judge-approves-its-merger-with-t-mobile.html

I'm sure California and NY are working on their appeals as we speak.  But I imagine that has an even slimmer chance of success than the original lawsuit.  

I would imagine Tmo and Sprint will move very quickly to close out the deal at this point.  

Yeah they better close this merger today. I thought they should have closed it right after the feds approved it. I think they could have actually integrated their networks without any problems. They also could have integrated business wise in those states that were not part of the suit. No matter I hope they hit the ground running.

California and NewYork will probably end holding the bag. They could have extracted concessions beyond the Fed extracted ones. 

I wonder how fast they will open both networks for free and open roaming.

Without an MB I don't have any data past the front door of my condo on Sprint. On the other hand great 1x voice everywhere. Part of the reason Sprint needs this merger is that they need about 20,000 more sites for reliable VoLTE. 

There is an article in Blooberg about the price that T-Mobile will pay if the merger is approved. As you probably know Sprint's price per share has gone down since the merger was announced to the point that its market cap is $20B from the $34B the day prior to the announcement of the merger. If T-Mobile is too tough in extracting the best price, I could see other potential suitors appear.

I think that the other three carriers pretty much ignore Sprint's pricing. Sprint is no longer a price setter. They know that no matter what Sprint does they don't need to compete on price with Sprint. The perceived quality of their network will overcome whatever price. So basically Sprint is competing against itself denying itself the money to improve its network.

3 hours ago, dkyeager said:

Unions are certainly a factor.  Attempting to get a better deal for your state was another, such as Texas (Republican) etc. General views on enforcement of merger deals is another.  Rewarding a firm (Dish) that skirts the rules is yet additional factor.  Basically a urban/rural divide both in search of lower prices. The rural areas often only have two real carrier choices while the urban have four.

The irony is the FCC decision on 2.5 licenses no longer having to set aside a small percentage of the usage for non-profit use and in fact being saleable will have a much greater impact on prices in urban areas over time. Yet this seems uncontested.

Bringing politics into this forum? Not needed and against the rules.

I don't think that Sprint employs unionized labor. They might have had at some point or another but they outsourced it to outside contract firms. There is/was a worry that the merger would lead to loss of Boost franchises. However Dish will probably absorb most of them. There is still a genuine concern that the merger will lead to higher prices. That has already happened to the top three. It is only Sprint that is lagging behind but even they have increased their prices on the truly unlimited plans. Now they had some really stupid promotions that cost them money. 

1 hour ago, floorguy said:

Not only that.. but its along party lines, just to give another middle finger to the president... And if I am not mistaken.. most of them are union workforce states??  I am sorry but unions are not useful anymore, for anything more, then creating a lazy workforce

Let's leave politics out of this forum.

The head of the U.S. Justice Department's Antitrust Division expressed his concern that the cohort of states suing to block the proposed merger between Sprint Corp. and T-Mobile US Inc. would "undercut federal enforcement decisions."

U.S. District Court Judge Victor Marrero is expected to deliver a decision later this month on the antitrust trial brought by 14 attorneys general. The AGs argue that the deal will not benefit consumers, despite efforts by Sprint (NYSE: S) and T-Mobile (Nasdaq: TMUS) to create a viable fourth carrier by selling brands and assets to Dish Network Corp. (Nasdaq: DISH) and promises of nationwide 5G services.

"Unfortunately, the scenario that has unfolded here is incompatible with the orderly operation of our antitrust merger laws and telecommunications regulations," Assistant Attorney General Makan Delrahim said in a Wednesday speech in Washington. "It creates the risk that a small subset of states, or even perhaps just one, could undermine beneficial transactions and settlements nationwide."

https://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/news/2020/02/06/sprint-tmobile-merger-doj-delrahim.html?ana=yahoo&yptr=yahoo

That's what I have been saying from the beginning. States have no standing in blocking a merger. That is the bailiwick of the feds. Hopefully the federal judge makes the right decision.

T-Mobile is doing well, they are expected to score $11.8B in revenue for their 4th Quarter and about $44B for 2019. The only fly in the ointment for T-Mobile would be 5G. Yeah I know about their 600MHz but there is just not enough bandwidth there. However if they can hold off until both CBRS band and C-band become available then they can come away with some really nice spectrum. Sprint on the other hand...their market cap is now $18B. Come on cable cos, or Amazon or Google! While you're at it, bring Dish's spectrum into the bargain and let them be an MVNO. Both the cable cos and Dish have something to lose with all the cable cutting. Why not cannibalize their own cable instead of letting somebody else cannibalize them? 

On the other hand, who would loan them the money? The sentiment right now is that the merger will not be approved and that Sprint's options are limited to declaring bankruptcy, spectrum sales and shrinking their footprint to only those markets they are making money in, like MetroPCS. 

https://www.fiercewireless.com/operators/what-will-sprint-do-if-t-mobile-deal-fails

3 hours ago, RedSpark said:

https://investors.sprint.com/news-and-events/press-releases/press-release-details/2020/Sprint-Announces-10-Billion-Guaranteed-Notes-Offering/default.aspx
 

Curious that Sprint is doing this while the merger decision is expected soon.

It's only $1B and they will use it to refinance debt. Not a big deal ether way. Now if it was $10B and it was going to be used for anything other than refinancing debt then we're talking.

Totally treading water. I am more interested on network improvements.

13 minutes ago, RedSpark said:

To quote one of my favorite series as you said: “Not great... Not terrible.”

Is Sprint fully committed to a network plan now? Are they cheaping out on backhaul to sites? Like you said, it’s hard to gauge what they are doing vs what they can afford.

Sprint’s debt load and upcoming maturities is still very disconcerting. Short of a SoftBank rescue or merger, I’m not sure how they pay that off and get ahead of things. Sprint’s Total liquidity was $5.2 billion at the end of the quarter. That includes $3.2 billion of cash and cash equivalents. If the merger isn’t approved, Sprint will still need to be on the hook for sequential quarters of high capex for the foreseeable future. Simply putting 2.5 GHz on every macro site isn’t enough. There simply aren’t enough macro sites, although mini-macro/strand mounts are helping somewhat.

They did invest in their network last year and that's why their cash went down by about $4B.What concerns me is the negative free cash flow. Are they not able to finance activities with debt? Cash will dry up soon. When that happens they either have to pair back investing in their network or declare a Chapter 11.

On 1/23/2020 at 8:53 AM, Paynefanbro said:

It's funny how much goalposts get moved as time has gone on. For years people complained that Sprints greatest downfall was how slow their network is. Now that they're faster than both Verizon and T-Mobile speed doesn't matter?

Within their current footprint, Sprint is the most competitive carrier there is. They're a lot like T-Mobile at the start of "Uncarrier". They offer a great combo of speed and price.

Sprint is stuck because their brand is ruined. No one wants to join Sprint no matter how many good things people say about them and because of that Sprint can't get the revenue to do meaningful coverage expansion (which is what I'm assuming most of you who are complaining want).

That's why they're so focused on beefing up their current network and deploying 5G. They're hoping that more people within their current footprint will join and stay and when they have a solid foundation of users and a strong urban/suburban network they can finally focus on building out their network everywhere else. 

It's literally the T-Mobile formula.

 

This is my opinion of Sprint based on my having at least 1 line of service with them since 1999. Their coverage is not up to par with the other 3. I'm not talking about coverage on a rural road in South Dakota. I am talking about coverage inside one's home in a suburban setting. They need to thicken their coverage so that that it is consistent. If I am getting 50MBits outside my house and .5Mbits inside then the network is not consistent. 

If the main argument of the judge's opinion is that the states have no standing to sue since this is the purview of the federal government and not the states then it will withstand appeal. If he also lists the fact that FCC and DOJ went over and above their mandate (they only had to use approve or reject the merger) by creating a new competitor and are putting Dish's spectrum to use I think there will not be any appeals.

BTW if the merger gets rejected, T-Mobile will be fine. CBRS and C-band auctions are coming up and they can pick up sizable chunks of spectrum there. I believe the cable cos will be major players in those two auctions also. I have always thought that the cable cos using either Sprint's spectrum or CBRS/C-Band spectrum will be something to be reckoned with. They can blanket the urban/suburban landscape with strand/pole mounted antennas and offer very attractive bundles that includes wireless service.

I do think that the merger will be approved but just in case, here's my thoughts on what should happen if it gets rejected in order of preferred outcome:

1. T-Mobile & Sprint merge their network operations into an independent company and they both become MVNOs. Dish is left out in the cold with their spectrum unused. FCC has egg in their face. Only way Dish gets their network deployed is if Amazon and/or cable cos invest in them. it could happen...the other possibility is that Dish sells their spectrum to Verizon/AT&T/T-mobile. Sprint does pretty good but they are no longer a price leader. Their pricing is rationalized and pretty close to what the other major carriers charge.

2. Sprint gets properly funded by Softbank. They buy Dish's 600Mhz/ AWS-3. They fill out their present network but do not expand beyond their current footprint. They charge for rural roaming and they price themselves rationally. They grow slowly.

3. Sprint gets acquired by a consortium of Amazon and cable cos. They use Sprint to promote their video offerings to millennials. The resulting company expands their network to provide a really solid network in the boondocks but fall short of Verizon/AT&T which is OK. They only expand where they can make money. 

4. Sprint goes on without the financial support of Softbank and limps along. They shrink their network and become an urban based network. Some smaller markets and places where it does not make financial sense to have their network are dropped. They rationalize their prices and charge for roaming. Where they do offer service their network is really solid. 

3 hours ago, dro1984 said:

Hey bigsnake... what's your prediction as to when the Judge will issue his ruling?    I'm hoping it's this week.

I'd give him until the beginning of February. Remember that he had the opposing sides briefs in his possession for 3-4+ months. He and his clerk(s) identified the main issues from the briefs and asked questions about it during trial. The closing arguments are really a show by the lawyers and really unnecessary when in front of a judge that actually paid attention. The reason why I think it will be delayed until the first week of February is that he needs to keep up appearances that he did not rush through it and he was deliberative and thoughtful. The last thing a judge wants to do is to give the states ammunition for an appeal.

On 1/7/2020 at 10:37 AM, dro1984 said:

Brad... you're right!    It's in the news today.     Good catch!  

I don't remember which blog it was but it had the best headline announcing the closing of the brand, "Sprint sacrifices Virgin".😂

The analysts are just speculating. They don't know anymore than we do.

On 1/6/2020 at 12:59 PM, red_dog007 said:

Beings that Dish is still supposed to do business as usual as if there was no merger talks, what is the likelyhood the FCC will approve Dish's AWS4 request for extension? Can the FCC take the merger into consideration if they approve the extension or not (if the merger fails).

Can the Judge consider this as part of the case?  With the possibility of the FCC not approving the extension on a failed merger and the FCC revoking 40MHz of spectrum, this would make things interesting. It would also give TMobile other opportunities to acquire more spectrum below 6GHz.

No merger, FCC revoke licenses, TMobile could pick up Dish for super cheap after their stock tanks from losing 40MHz of spectrum.

A Dish without AWS4 will still have nationwide 40MHz and up to 60MHz of 600, AWS-H and AWS-3.  That would put TMobile closer to AT&T holdings with an acquision of Dish, net them 10 million TV subscribers and increase yearily revenue by $13billion.

They will put up protection sites.

36 minutes ago, Flompholph said:

No way they are writing the opinion this week. January 15(almost a month) is closing arguments and I am giving them at least a week for anything to be written and filed. 

Has there been made a distinction between Tmobile 5G and new Tmobile 5G in court? I have not seen any mention of Tmobile 5G being not real high speed 5G in their ads. 

Since my wife is a judge I know exactly how the system works.

4 minutes ago, dkyeager said:

Closing arguments in January, likely set to encourage a deal.

Yeah but it's a formality. The judge is already writing his opinion (well his clerk is :)). I think of closing arguments as theater particularly when it involves an experienced judge and not a jury.

The trial is over by the way. Now we have to wait for the judge's opinion. Of course I think the merger will be approved without any or minimal changes to the agreement. I thought that the states missed an opportunity to settle with T-Mobile. They still have time to save face.