Spectrum or no spectrum, Clearwire alone has a much shakier footing absent Sprint than investors seem t give them credit for. They're losing money hand over fist over pot over teakettle, their network is slower than T-Mobile's DC-HSPA network, let alone anyone's LTE (and this is in a desktop context; take speeds and halve them in the mobile context, a problem that no other carrier has because Clearwire is being cheap CPE gear), and they can't extract premium, or maybe even reasonable, wholesale rates because their network isn't built out like it should be.
Don't get me wrong. If you're in an area served by Clearwire, $90 for a modem plus $10 per month for 10GB of data is a very decent deal. $90 for the modem plus $0 for 1GB of data is also decent. However if you're selling gigabytes so cheaply to FreedomPop that they can offer those rates and break even, are you even paying your own infrastructure costs, even mixing in Sprint's network lease payment? I mean, you do have a spotty, stagnant network footprint but geez...
For investors thinking that Clearwire will be able to sell its spectrum for a pretty penny, look at the potential buyers. In order to get AT&T or Verizon interested, Sprint would have to drop its share of CLWR completely, which first off isn't happening and second off would tank the share price since there would be 100% increase in the number of shares in the open market...and the Sprint contract keeping some of the lights on would be gone. Dish or DirecTV? Sure, but they don't have anywhere near as deep pockets as AT&T/VZW, so you won't get nearly as many cents per MHz-pop, even though there's already a 3GPP certification for Clear's LTE band and hardware will be available for it years sooner than for WCS.
Why won't you be able to get as many dollars per MHz-pop in a Dish situation? Well, you see, Dish isn't a mobile provider, and even if it became one they wouldn't be able to use Clearwire spectrum to do a traditional mobile network because cell sizes are too small. You have to do fixed wireless because Dish's customer base has a large rural proportion, and Dish's current customer base is what they'll leverage for a new wireless product. And what do you sell to rural customers seeking fixed wireless broadband? Well, something that gets billed by household rather than by person, something that has a lower cost per gigabyte than mobile, and something that will get discounted as part of a double/triple play. So look for an average revenue per household of $50 per month, rather than an average revenue per person of $70. You may not have to subsidize fancy phones, but you do have to pay for labor to install the user CPEs, and pay for the CPEs themselves...and do this while staying under the pricing of VZW HomeFusion, ViaSat exede and HughesNet.
With all of those caveats, why do CLWR investors think that their company is hot stuff, again?
To be fair, the investors in CLWR might be using AT&T phones and wouldn't ever have to live with HughesNet, ViaSat or some potential alternative. Or maybe they're shorting AT&T, hoping that that company will depress its stock price like Sprint has done by going after Clearwire. Who knows?
Okay, I'm just being grumpy now. In the interest of full disclosure, I have immediate family that has a fair amount of Sprint stock. So I'm shaking my head at Sprint, muttering "too soon..."