Conan Kudo

Praise.

¡Fantástico! I thought that might be the case, but I wanted to be sure.

$25.67 today. 

 

Now TMUS and DT has to build because they're stuck... good luck with that, guys. 

 

PS - I'm happy for people like Neal who have advocated that DT stick around and build, but he's always been clear about what TMUS needed to do. 

Wait, are you praising me or denigrating me? I can't quite tell...

True, but DT has stated that is doen't want to fund any additional business in the U.S.

DT has a lot of problems in their "domestic" European market, especially in southern and eastern Europe

Well, Southern Europe is doing fine, since they don't actually have anything in Italy, and ΟΤΕ is doing fine in Greece. The only "problem" unit in Eastern Europe is Poland. They've got their work cut out for them there. The rest of the European units are stable, but network modernization efforts are underway to simplify the cost structure and add flexibility to the network architecture. European units with fixed networks are also receiving upgrades, particularly convergence upgrades to enable fixed-mobile convergence offers.

DT hasn't stated that it doesn't want to fund any business in the U.S., but it has said that it is pleased that T-Mobile US is self-funding in its own right, and the company does not need to depend on DT to raise cash for auctions or other business initiatives.

I don't see T-Mobile going big on AWS-3. Maybe 5+5MHz nationwide. I do see both Verizon&AT&T winning the rest (10+10 each). Of course all three can refarm PCS frequencies for additional bandwidth. Verizon and AT&T also can ref arm their PCS holdings. Nobody will be hurting for spectrum. Does anybody have an idea of when Sprint will go back and add second or third channels to their PCS G block ( I know they have in the Chicago area)? Is it not a high priority?

 

You can't add more channels to PCS G block. It's already full with the single 5MHz FDD carrier. Adding more PCS channels would be in Sprint's allocations on A-F blocks.

T-Mobile USA's problem will show next year because Deutsche Telekom is not willing to fund additional expansion in the U.S. because the credit rating of TMo US is lower as DT's.

Sprint has been smart to wait and it will clearly use Softbanks full pockets to clean up the 600 Mhz band auction. Since NV provides the platform, we could see a nationwide rollout even faster as the LTE deployment by TMo.

Credit ratings aren't static. They can change quarterly, and you have no idea what DT's investment plan is. Pretty much everyone will find out at the biannual Capital Markets Day event this December.

Cadet pilot

Plus they have been spending a lot of money to get 700Mhz spectrum as well.

The spending for 700MHz has minimal impact on T-Mobile, since it comes from free cash flow (which T-Mobile has over $3 billion as of Q2). My guess is that they spent roughly $100 million in August and September on 700MHz purchases, based on the declaration of $50 million for August and the roughly equivalent amount of purchases in September. So I don't think that's a problem.

The AWS-3 auction is going to be where T-Mobile is going to be very focused on bidding. This auction is not really critical for the company in most parts of the country, but there are a few key markets where picking AWS-3 could help with either swaps for AWS-1 or using it for extra capacity (small cells, etc.). Verizon will also be strategically bidding for areas that it can use to reach 20MHz FDD wherever it needs it.

AT&T, on the other hand, has totally frozen network investment for the second half of the year so that it can spend big on AWS-3 without impacting its all-important dividend guidance. 

That is one way to look at it. The other way would be to consider that for basically the entire year the stock had been trading at a premium due to potential merger/buyout talk. That premium is gone today with the stock reverting to last December like value.

I don't think so. Based on the analyst reports that have been coming out over the last few days that remove the M&A "premium", I expect that it'll quickly rise back up to the low 30s. A few of them have indicated that they expect the share price to rise to $35-37 very soon.

Right now, T-Mobile is at $26.92 a share and falling. Was at $34 a share back in July.

The market would be volatile for a while, so the valuation of the share would be considered untrustworthy for the next few days. It's an opportunity to snap up shares at a discount, though.

All the time. I have reported the bad sector at my office every week since last December.

 

Using Tapatalk on BlackBerry Z30

The app crashes all the time for me, and also tends to eat all of my system memory, so now I don't use it anymore. I really wish they'd remake that app...

Banana boat

Smoked Ham

Bending Bender

That is a pretty good insight to the mentality of most modern corporations. Who cares about being offended as long as you get the big fat profit/sale, what ever one comes first. We wonder why things are so often messed up, that's a big part of it.

Well, the other side of that is: can you do anything without offending someone? Generally, the answer is no. There are two ways you can approach this: you can minimize your "offensiveness", or you can strategically use "offensiveness" (using it as part of "candor" and whatnot) to build the business. Very few people can play the role John Legere is doing successfully. The fact he can pull it off is a testament to his acting ability and his business acumen.

I wouldn't recommend anyone else to try to do what he's doing. The reason he can do what he does is because he knows how to do it, and when he screws up, he admits it quickly and well enough that everything works out fine. Most executives aren't capable of that because of the tons of hand-holding by lawyers. The fact that John eschews that and uses his own sense of law and business, and his common sense allows him much more flexibility than most. Very few executives are confident enough to do that.

And of course, there's no denying that he's getting results.

Happy Endings

Numbah One

Video phone

Cell site

That makes me wonder... How are ZTE phones nowadays? I had the warp on boost for a little while and God that thing was horrible.

According to those I know who have it, the ZTE ZMAX is a rather good phone. The near-stock Android combined with Wi-Fi calling and decent specs (most ZTE phones released to Sprint and its brands suck in terms of specs) make it a powerful and speedy device for the value.

Based on the Custom Map Promotion, there has been some jockeying on the Honored Premier list standings.  mdob7 has moved up 8 spots.  bucdenny, who recently was bumped off the list is now back on in the #8 spot.  swintec made it on the list and is now in the #15 position.  Neal (Conan Kudo) also is now on the list at #17.  dbsynergy is new to the list at #18  And mosoccer squeaked on to the list at #25.

 

tommym65, KD8JBF, anthony.spina97, aackman and Wiley_11 got bumped off the bottom.

 

Thank you all who participated in the map promotion.

Muahahaha!  

Edit: List preserved for posterity, since I'm sure it'll be wiped away soon by other members.

 

The list, as of October 2, 2014:

• WiWavelength
• bakedc4
• mikejeep
• ohdevilguy
• mooeydj
• PDXmike
• mdob07
• bucdenny
• PythonFanTN
• leerage
• lynyrd65
• twospirits
• themuffinman
• tongboy
• swintec
• blinky847
• Conan Kudo
• dbsynergy
• C.A.R
• runagun
• ballman
• hankbear
• savageman13
• dstar2002
• mosoccer

Muahahaha!   

With Tmobile acquiring lower 700mhz licenses, when do we expect to see band 12 and devices with band 12 in the wild?

Now.

Band 12 has gone live in portions of D.C., Ohio, Texas, and Atlanta already. Work is underway to roll it out in other areas, and T-Mobile is negotiating agreements for DTV 51 stations to either move or accept reduced coverage contours. It has successfully negotiated the Dayton, OH; Altanta, GA; and Kansas City DTV 51 stations to move to other channels, and work began in those areas to roll out Band 12 some time ago.

Band 12 devices are rolling out as we speak. Currently, T-Mobile carries four band 12 devices on its site:

• Samsung Galaxy Tab 4 8.0
• Samsung Galaxy Avant
• Samsung Galaxy Note 4 (available for pre-order currently, comes out later this month)
• ZTE ZMAX

The following upcoming devices will also include band 12:

• Sony Xperia Z3
• Samsung Galaxy Note Edge
• Samsung Galaxy Tab S 10.5

There's also an unlocked device that has band 12 that isn't sold by T-Mobile, the Verykool SL5000 Quantum. Most of the specs on the device are good, but it has a 5.0" FWVGA screen instead of qHD/720p/1080p HD in order to bring the cost of the device way down to $230. However, it does have AWS for HSPA+/LTE and supports bands 12 and 17. That said, the ZTE ZMAX is a far better device (5.7" 720p HD screen, Wi-Fi ac, Wi-Fi calling, etc) at only $22 more. But if you need a device that is as cheap as it gets (for kids or whatever) with band 12, the "verykool" phone is the one to get. But $22 more for the ZMAX is a much better bargain (especially since it has stock Android, too).

Not at $33/share. I see them selling at $37

Considering that DT didn't accept less than $40/share from SoftBank, I think a bare minimum for any consideration will be $38/share. And even then, I don't think DT would all its entire stake to be sold. And that's really only if DT is considering a sale, which I don't think it is anymore.

New developments...

France’s Iliad Said to Plan Bid for Bigger T-Mobile Stake

I don't see Deutsche Telekom agreeing. Selling T-Mobile US would drop DT out of the top 10 in terms of revenue, profits, and subscribers. Without T-Mobile US, it may not be able to maintain its consolidated financial performance as it had in the past. Not only that, T-Mobile US is DT's only growing business unit right now. Based on what Reuters indicated earlier this week, I simply don't see a sale happening at all.

Runway Bandits

loose wire

I'm going to be conservative and say that the fiscal 2Q'14 will have a range of -100K to 100K net additions for handsets. On tablets, I'll say around 150K to 250K net adds. Claure's entrance and changes to Sprint occurred at the tail end of the quarter, and the iPhone launched at the very end of the quarter. Undoubtedly, it will positively influence the results, but the iPhone launch is still only at the very end of the quarter. Next quarter may be much better, though.

I'm concerned about FCF. Sprint's FCF has been in the negative hundred millions for several quarters now, and that needs to be corrected. Even T-Mobile has been able to maintain positive FCF, despite all the pundits saying it couldn't possibly do that.