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Everything posted by RedSpark

  1. I’m glad they’re finally spending money on capex. However, the horse is already out of the barn. Customers aren’t coming to Sprint except for discounted lines (or free lines, which is a whole other issue and the subject of several lawsuits). They churn out once the promos are up. Sprint is spending money and people aren’t coming to stay. Sprint’s churn and debt service are generating feedback loop drains on the business and the liquidity wall it’s facing is a stark reality. I believe Sprint’s disclosures to the FCC, especially since they’re backed by highly sensitive information. I wish I had the same faith in their Investor disclosures. This doesn’t mean I support a merger. I don’t. But it means Sprint is finally telling the truth.
  2. According to their reported results from the Investor Update: Postpaid phone net losses of 189,000 compared to net additions of 55,000 in the year-ago period and net losses of 26,000 in the prior quarter. (NOTE: The current quarter included 129,000 net migrations from prepaid to non-Sprint branded postpaid, compared to 44,000 in the prior year and 107,000 in the prior quarter.) Postpaid phone churn of 1.82 percent compared to 1.68 percent in the year-ago period and 1.84 percent in the prior quarter. Adjusted free cash flow* of negative $539 million for the quarter compared to negative $240 million in the year-ago period and negative $908 million in the prior quarter. I don’t see these metrics as encouraging. The business is running out of runway.
  3. From one of Sprint’s FCC Filings: https://ecfsapi.fcc.gov/file/1041986365867/Sprint Standalone Ex Parte Revised - REDACTED - 4.19.2019 AS-FILED.pdf Relevant statements about Sprint’s cash flow issues appear throughout it. See Pages 1,4,6,8,9,13,17,18,19,36,37,39,40,41 and read the main section about cash flow/debt from Page 36 - Page 42.
  4. And how long can Sprint keep that up for without sufficient free cash flow?
  5. Here’s an FCC Filing submitted to Commissioner Rosenwercel: https://ecfsapi.fcc.gov/file/10419537725960/4-19-19 Rosenworcel Public Ex Parte.pdf Rural Capex is redacted on Page 2. However, their promise to “invest nearly $40 Billion into the 5G network and business in the first three years” is not redacted on Page 6.
  6. Sprint has a churn bomb combined with a debt bomb on the horizon. It said that in its FCC Filing. The engine is leaking oil faster than Sprint can pour it in... and it’s going to get harder to get more oil.
  7. Look at Page 20 of the Investor Update which shows its liquidity vs current maturities: https://s21.q4cdn.com/487940486/files/doc_financials/quarterly/2018/Q4/Fiscal-4Q18-Sprint-Quarterly-Investor-Update-FINAL.pdf Then take a look at its debt schedule here: https://investors.sprint.com/financials/default.aspx Does that change your opinion?
  8. The antennas are surprisingly compact, so I’m thinking this could be a thing a some point.
  9. 5G on-air at Google I/O in Mountain View, CA! Will Massive MIMO COWS be a thing?
  10. The Transcript isn’t live yet on Sprint’s Investor’s Page... but Seeking Alpha has it: Sprint Corporation (S) CEO Michel Combes on Q4 2018 Results - Earnings Call Transcript $S https://seekingalpha.com/article/4261276 “For the fourth quarter, operating loss of $1.9 billion included several non-recurring items, with the most material item being the preliminary $2 billion non-cash impairment charge that I’ve just mentioned, as well as $304 million related to a loss on asset dispositions and $130 million related to merger costs.” “Regarding the impairment, it was part of our annual evaluation of long-lived and indefinite-lived assets under U.S. GAAP. While we delivered solid financials again in fiscal 2018, our hurdle rate has increased as the book value of our equity has grown by about $9 billion in the last six quarters, due primarily to non-cash items, including tax reform and the adoption of the new revenue standard. This non-cash accounting charge is not expected to impact liquidity, cash flows compliant to the debt covenants or any future operations.” Something clearly lost its value... Any ideas what it is?
  11. Besides the merger, is there anything that SoftBank can do at this point to right the ship? I agree that they won’t let Sprint die, but they do seem to be letting it flounder.
  12. Sprint had to take a noncash goodwill impairment charge (against itself) in the amount of $2 billion. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/goodwill-impairment.asp Now that I think about it, I might have an idea what this is... Could it be the “free lines” that were potentially misrepresented as additions? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sprint-corporation-investor-alert-wolf-203509948.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alert-pawar-law-group-announces-221000406.html
  13. What was the “noncash goodwill impairment charge of $2 billion” that Sprint had to take?
  14. Even with that catastrophic merger, Sprint still had a fighting chance. I believe Sprint’s non-participation in the 600 MHz Auction and the failure of its monopole build plan to come to fruition was either on par or greater in terms of being a strategic blunder. This decision was ultimately Masa’s I’m thinking. Sprint had a second bite at the apple for low band and it decided to risk everything on the monopole build plan instead. This is after going through all the motions and advocacy steps to ensure a spectrum reserve (asked for 40 MHz and it wound up being 30 MHz). Instead, T-Mobile got a huge chunk of it... and Sprint is where it is now, with none of it.
  15. I think the reason for the shareholder lawsuits is that these reports weren’t completely honest.... and because its FCC Filings painted an honest assessment of Sprint’s situation. These investor reports do not contain the apocalyptic data/language that Sprint used in its FCC filings to support its case for a merger.
  16. Yeah. That’s true. They’ve got 2.5 GHz on about 80% of their Macro Sites, 30,000 small cells (including mini macros and strand mounts), and about 1,500 Massive MIMO units. This could have been much worse. However, at a certain point, Sprint will run out of road on its cost cutting initiatives.
  17. Fiscal 4Q18 Earnings are out: https://investors.sprint.com/news-and-events/press-releases/press-release-details/2019/Sprint-Reports-Fiscal-Year-2018-Fourth-Quarter-And-Full-Year-Results/default.aspx https://investors.sprint.com/financials/default.aspx
  18. Very Nice! I hope they also get out of the cars and do walking tests as well. Give someone a backpack and a large power cell pack and send them off exploring the city. I would gladly do it... and get my steps in!
  19. https://www.lightreading.com/business-employment/customer-experience/if-sprint-t-mobile-divest-customers-in-a-merger-they-could-call-america-movil/d/d-id/751153? Interesting....
  20. May 7, 2019 The results will be posted at www.sprint.com/investors at approximately 4:05 p.m. ET. Sprint management will host a conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET to discuss the results.
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