FCC Auctions

[dkyeager]

Round 7 did not change the settled licenses much.  Now at $135 Million total.

Ky is about 93% settled. Only Harlan has an unsettled c3.

SC is about 76% settled with c3 active bids still occurring for Allendale, Beaufort, Dillion, Hampton, Horry, Jasper, Marion,

 

[dkyeager]

WA has King county with no bids. It it listed as heavily encumbered. Only 36% of the licenses are settled.

TX has no demand in Harris (Houston), c1 & c2 for Bexar, c3 for Coryell and Hamilton.  All are heavily encumbered. about 63% of the licenses are settled. Here are the follwing counties with unsettled bids for c3:

Angelina

Armstrong

Atascosa

Blanco

Borden

Bosque

Brewster

Briscoe

Brown

Burnet

Camp

Childress

Coke

Coleman

Collingsworth

Comanche

Concho

Crockett

Culberson

Dallam

Deaf Smith

Donley

Edwards

Falls

Foard

Gaines

Gonzales

Gray

Hall

Hansford

Hardeman

Hartley

Hays

Hemphill

Hudspeth

Hutchinson

Irion

Jack

Jackson

Jeff Davis

Kimble

Lampasas

Lavaca

Lipscomb

McCulloch

Mason

Menard

Milam

Montague

Moore

Nacogdoches

Newton

Ochiltree

Oldham

Panola

Pecos

Presidio

Rains

Reagan

Roberts

Runnels

Rusk

San Augustine

San Saba

Schleicher

Scurry

Shelby

Sherman

Sterling

Sutton

Terrell

Titus

Tom Green

Tyler

Val Verde

Wheeler

Wood

Yoakum

Young

Bastrop

Caldwell

Lee

Sabine

 

[IrwinshereAgain]

13 hours ago, dkyeager said:

Round 7 did not change the settled licenses much.  Now at $135 Million total.

Ky is about 93% settled. Only Harlan has an unsettled c3.

SC is about 76% settled with c3 active bids still occurring for Allendale, Beaufort, Dillion, Hampton, Horry, Jasper, Marion,

 

Looks like Myrtle Beach and Hilton Head areas in SC.  Do you think that is just speculators trying to up the price for TMOBILE?

[PedroDaGr8]

12 hours ago, dkyeager said:

WA has King county with no bids. It it listed as heavily encumbered. Only 36% of the licenses are settled.

 

 

The license for King Co is not only heavily encumbered but the remaining areas are almost entirely deep in the Cascade Mountains with little to no population. 

[dkyeager]

3 hours ago, IrwinshereAgain said:

Looks like Myrtle Beach and Hilton Head areas in SC.  Do you think that is just speculators trying to up the price for TMOBILE?

iirc T-Mobile has band 5 there, so who ever is short band 5: Verizon or T-Mobile  AT&T. 

 

Edited August 4, 2022 by dkyeager
corrected to what I meant to say.

[belusnecropolis]

1 hour ago, dkyeager said:

Verizon or T-Mobile

TMUS has CLR-A from the SUNCOM purchase deployed as 20MHz FDD LTE and EDGE in guards.

VZW has the CLR-B deployed as 20MHz FDD DSS NR + LTE.

[dkyeager]

10 minutes ago, belusnecropolis said:

TMUS has CLR-A from the SUNCOM purchase deployed as 20MHz FDD LTE and EDGE in guards.

VZW has the CLR-B deployed as 20MHz FDD DSS NR + LTE.

My bad.  I meant to say Verizon or AT&T.  Thus AT&T.

[dkyeager]

Round 8 settled licenses remains about the same.

NE is 93% settled.  C3 license unsettled counties: Burt, Cuming, Wayne.

[dkyeager]

Round 9 settled licenses remain about the same.  Slight nibbling of unsold licenses (will try to see if FCC is reducing the price.  All details not loaded correctly so this will need to wait.) 

Total FCC potential revenue is now $143 million. about $62 million each for c1 and c2 with c3 at about 18 million.

[belusnecropolis]

1 minute ago, dkyeager said:

My bad

No worries king, I thought you were asking for clarification. n5 DSS on VZW is a mess here, L5 is great for coverage on TMUS. Using it before n71 was a thing and everyone was complaining about band 12 10MHz FDD being clogged up and we were cruising along on a 20MHz FDD channel was nice comparatively. T has no NR deployed yet, it appeared on two sites for testing briefly during the months long WCDMA turn down but that 5MHz has been turned up as LTE, even though it is adjacent to another 15MHz LTE channel in T's holdings.  

[dkyeager]

Round 10: 75% of the licenses are settled nationwide.  Looking at the c3 licenses which should favor T-Mobile, 87% are settled, 11% contested, 2% no bids.  If T-Mobile controls all the BR licenses, then they would have 88MHz of contiguous plus 6MHz at the start of Band 41 to uses or lease.

Personally I hope that T-Mobile gets at least 100MHz contiguous everywhere feasible. 

 

CA 88% settled, 6% no bids, 6% still competing. Counties: Lassen(3), Modoc(2),  Siskiyou(2), Mapiposa, Napa.

[dkyeager]

Title says it all: https://www.rcrwireless.com/20220805/spectrum/2-5-ghz-auction-crawls-to-143-million

[dkyeager]

round 11: move past $150 Million  https://www.sashajavid.com/FCC_Auction108.php#county_details_table_overlay

VA is 97% settled.  100% for C3 licenses.

Edited August 5, 2022 by dkyeager
added VA

[dkyeager]

Looking over the data so far, bidders can go back and reopen bidding on licenses that appeared settled.

In the list below, not all counties are listed and only states with excess demand.  Typically 3 licenses per county for rural areas and some urban areas.

Here is how many licenses per state had demand greater than supply:

State	count
AK	3
AL	14
AR	3
AS	6
AZ	9
CA	12
CO	76
DE	6
FL	10
GA	66
GU	3
HI	3
IA	99
ID	47
IL	39
IN	43
KS	231
KY	23
LA	14
MA	5
MD	16
ME	1
MI	86
MN	9
MO	79
MP	12
MS	73
MT	69
NC	26
ND	109
NE	18
NH	13
NJ	6
NM	51
NV	24
NY	13
OH	29
OK	9
OR	30
PA	24
PR	25
SC	20
SD	83
TN	76
TX	236
UT	49
VA	22
VT	5
WA	65
WI	59
WV	26
WY	29

[dkyeager]

Almost at 76% licenses "sold" at $160 million. Like watching paint dry.  Will check again in a few days. 

[dkyeager]

https://www.lightreading.com/5g/the-quiet-brilliance-of-t-mobiles-5g-spectrum-strategy/a/d-id/779589?

Basically Money savings on 2.5 mostly rural auction are funding 600MHz purchases.  Also mentions continuing purchases of 2.5 outright. Likely understates the amount of MHz.

Auction going slightly faster with 4 auction sessions per day now, but still less than 80% "settled".  After 18 rounds it is at $190 Million, with $400 to $800 Million expected. could go on for another month.  check here for updates about 1 hour after each round: https://www.sashajavid.com/FCC_Auction108.php#county_details_table_overlay

[dkyeager]

Pace picks up a bit.  Round 23.  About 86% now "uncontested" and $223 Million total.  Down to 159 licenses without bids.

[dkyeager]

Almost 89% and $250 Million after round 27.

[dkyeager]

Here is how many competitive permits are "remaining" in each state after round 27:

(bonus points: reply with the states/territories/districts that are already "settled".)

AL	4
AR	1
AS	2
AZ	5
CA	2
CO	53
DE	2
FL	5
GA	48
GU	3
HI	3
IA	40
ID	19
IL	7
IN	19
KS	113
KY	22
LA	9
MA	3
MD	11
ME	1
MI	48
MO	54
MP	10
MS	27
MT	33
NC	12
ND	22
NE	8
NH	1
NJ	2
NM	26
NV	17
NY	6
OH	24
OK	9
OR	2
PA	2
PR	1
SC	12
SD	47
TN	17
TX	36
UT	23
VA	8
WA	22
WI	22
WV	2
WY	11

[dkyeager]

16 hours ago, dkyeager said:

Here is how many competitive permits are "remaining" in each state after round 27:

(bonus points: reply with the states/territories/districts that are already "settled".)

AL	4
AR	1
AS	2
AZ	5
CA	2
CO	53
DE	2
FL	5
GA	48
GU	3
HI	3
IA	40
ID	19
IL	7
IN	19
KS	113
KY	22
LA	9
MA	3
MD	11
ME	1
MI	48
MO	54
MP	10
MS	27
MT	33
NC	12
ND	22
NE	8
NH	1
NJ	2
NM	26
NV	17
NY	6
OH	24
OK	9
OR	2
PA	2
PR	1
SC	12
SD	47
TN	17
TX	36
UT	23
VA	8
WA	22
WI	22
WV	2
WY	11

Likely completed states and territories and districts:

Alaska	AK
Northern Mariana Islands	CM
Connecticut	CT
District of Columbia	DC
Minnesota	MN
Virgin Islands	VI
Vermont	VT

[S4GRU]

I really appreciate your updates on the auction @dkyeager.  Thanks!

Robert

[dkyeager]

waiting for about 400 with demand > supply, or 95% to look again in some detail.  Until then : https://www.sashajavid.com/FCC_Auction108.php#county_details_table_overlay

[dkyeager]

We are now at about 96.5% with demand = supply (which can individually change) at about $360 Million after round 43.  We have 283 licenses where demand is greater than supply, 7,587 where demand currently equals supply, and 147 with less demand than supply.  Looking at demand greater than supply by category, we get C1=15.5%, C2=47%, C3=37.5%.  Surprising how small C1 is relative to the rest.  The no bid licenses are about as earlier described: 100 encumbered, else Native American

Licenses remaining by state or territory:

State	Licenses
AL	36
AS	1
AZ	2
CO	10
GA	12
GU	2
IA	11
ID	1
IL	11
KS	28
KY	14
MA	1
ME	1
MI	7
MO	30
MP	3
MS	14
MT	4
NC	4
ND	7
NE	3
NM	6
NV	6
NY	3
OH	1
OK	3
OR	1
PA	2
SC	1
SD	14
TN	11
TX	1
UT	11
VA	3
WA	4
WI	4
WV	4
WY	6

[dkyeager]

Two rounds later, we are down to 222 competitive licenses, 147 with no demand, $367 Million.  By Monday there may be more no demand licenses than those with greater demand.  Historically it could go on for weeks or the FCC could raise the bid increments to effectively close it soon. 

 

source: https://www.sashajavid.com/FCC_Auction108.php#county_details_table_overlay

[dkyeager]

https://www.rcrwireless.com/20220823/spectrum/auction-total-nears-400-million

Article does not add much to what we are already posting here.  No demand licenses are now greater than licenses with multiple bids at the end of round 54 (145 versus 120).  Licenses in play keep moving around the map.  Ohio had a few again the last time I looked. $400 Million in bids is imminent with the total at $399,646,420.  If you are on a PC, find the current status of your county here: https://sashajavid.com/Auction108_County_Excess_Demand.php   (give it a minute or two to fully load.)