dkyeager Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 Round 7 did not change the settled licenses much. Now at $135 Million total. Ky is about 93% settled. Only Harlan has an unsettled c3. SC is about 76% settled with c3 active bids still occurring for Allendale, Beaufort, Dillion, Hampton, Horry, Jasper, Marion, 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dkyeager Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 WA has King county with no bids. It it listed as heavily encumbered. Only 36% of the licenses are settled. TX has no demand in Harris (Houston), c1 & c2 for Bexar, c3 for Coryell and Hamilton. All are heavily encumbered. about 63% of the licenses are settled. Here are the follwing counties with unsettled bids for c3: Angelina Armstrong Atascosa Blanco Borden Bosque Brewster Briscoe Brown Burnet Camp Childress Coke Coleman Collingsworth Comanche Concho Crockett Culberson Dallam Deaf Smith Donley Edwards Falls Foard Gaines Gonzales Gray Hall Hansford Hardeman Hartley Hays Hemphill Hudspeth Hutchinson Irion Jack Jackson Jeff Davis Kimble Lampasas Lavaca Lipscomb McCulloch Mason Menard Milam Montague Moore Nacogdoches Newton Ochiltree Oldham Panola Pecos Presidio Rains Reagan Roberts Runnels Rusk San Augustine San Saba Schleicher Scurry Shelby Sherman Sterling Sutton Terrell Titus Tom Green Tyler Val Verde Wheeler Wood Yoakum Young Bastrop Caldwell Lee Sabine 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrwinshereAgain Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 13 hours ago, dkyeager said: Round 7 did not change the settled licenses much. Now at $135 Million total. Ky is about 93% settled. Only Harlan has an unsettled c3. SC is about 76% settled with c3 active bids still occurring for Allendale, Beaufort, Dillion, Hampton, Horry, Jasper, Marion, Looks like Myrtle Beach and Hilton Head areas in SC. Do you think that is just speculators trying to up the price for TMOBILE? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PedroDaGr8 Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 12 hours ago, dkyeager said: WA has King county with no bids. It it listed as heavily encumbered. Only 36% of the licenses are settled. The license for King Co is not only heavily encumbered but the remaining areas are almost entirely deep in the Cascade Mountains with little to no population. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dkyeager Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, IrwinshereAgain said: Looks like Myrtle Beach and Hilton Head areas in SC. Do you think that is just speculators trying to up the price for TMOBILE? iirc T-Mobile has band 5 there, so who ever is short band 5: Verizon or T-Mobile AT&T. Edited August 4, 2022 by dkyeager corrected to what I meant to say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
belusnecropolis Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 1 hour ago, dkyeager said: Verizon or T-Mobile TMUS has CLR-A from the SUNCOM purchase deployed as 20MHz FDD LTE and EDGE in guards. VZW has the CLR-B deployed as 20MHz FDD DSS NR + LTE. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dkyeager Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, belusnecropolis said: TMUS has CLR-A from the SUNCOM purchase deployed as 20MHz FDD LTE and EDGE in guards. VZW has the CLR-B deployed as 20MHz FDD DSS NR + LTE. My bad. I meant to say Verizon or AT&T. Thus AT&T. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dkyeager Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 Round 8 settled licenses remains about the same. NE is 93% settled. C3 license unsettled counties: Burt, Cuming, Wayne. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dkyeager Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 Round 9 settled licenses remain about the same. Slight nibbling of unsold licenses (will try to see if FCC is reducing the price. All details not loaded correctly so this will need to wait.) Total FCC potential revenue is now $143 million. about $62 million each for c1 and c2 with c3 at about 18 million. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
belusnecropolis Posted August 4, 2022 Share Posted August 4, 2022 1 minute ago, dkyeager said: My bad No worries king, I thought you were asking for clarification. n5 DSS on VZW is a mess here, L5 is great for coverage on TMUS. Using it before n71 was a thing and everyone was complaining about band 12 10MHz FDD being clogged up and we were cruising along on a 20MHz FDD channel was nice comparatively. T has no NR deployed yet, it appeared on two sites for testing briefly during the months long WCDMA turn down but that 5MHz has been turned up as LTE, even though it is adjacent to another 15MHz LTE channel in T's holdings. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dkyeager Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 Round 10: 75% of the licenses are settled nationwide. Looking at the c3 licenses which should favor T-Mobile, 87% are settled, 11% contested, 2% no bids. If T-Mobile controls all the BR licenses, then they would have 88MHz of contiguous plus 6MHz at the start of Band 41 to uses or lease. Personally I hope that T-Mobile gets at least 100MHz contiguous everywhere feasible. CA 88% settled, 6% no bids, 6% still competing. Counties: Lassen(3), Modoc(2), Siskiyou(2), Mapiposa, Napa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dkyeager Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 Title says it all: https://www.rcrwireless.com/20220805/spectrum/2-5-ghz-auction-crawls-to-143-million 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dkyeager Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 (edited) round 11: move past $150 Million https://www.sashajavid.com/FCC_Auction108.php#county_details_table_overlay VA is 97% settled. 100% for C3 licenses. Edited August 5, 2022 by dkyeager added VA 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dkyeager Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 Looking over the data so far, bidders can go back and reopen bidding on licenses that appeared settled. In the list below, not all counties are listed and only states with excess demand. Typically 3 licenses per county for rural areas and some urban areas. Here is how many licenses per state had demand greater than supply: State count AK 3 AL 14 AR 3 AS 6 AZ 9 CA 12 CO 76 DE 6 FL 10 GA 66 GU 3 HI 3 IA 99 ID 47 IL 39 IN 43 KS 231 KY 23 LA 14 MA 5 MD 16 ME 1 MI 86 MN 9 MO 79 MP 12 MS 73 MT 69 NC 26 ND 109 NE 18 NH 13 NJ 6 NM 51 NV 24 NY 13 OH 29 OK 9 OR 30 PA 24 PR 25 SC 20 SD 83 TN 76 TX 236 UT 49 VA 22 VT 5 WA 65 WI 59 WV 26 WY 29 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dkyeager Posted August 8, 2022 Share Posted August 8, 2022 Almost at 76% licenses "sold" at $160 million. Like watching paint dry. Will check again in a few days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dkyeager Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 https://www.lightreading.com/5g/the-quiet-brilliance-of-t-mobiles-5g-spectrum-strategy/a/d-id/779589? Basically Money savings on 2.5 mostly rural auction are funding 600MHz purchases. Also mentions continuing purchases of 2.5 outright. Likely understates the amount of MHz. Auction going slightly faster with 4 auction sessions per day now, but still less than 80% "settled". After 18 rounds it is at $190 Million, with $400 to $800 Million expected. could go on for another month. check here for updates about 1 hour after each round: https://www.sashajavid.com/FCC_Auction108.php#county_details_table_overlay 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dkyeager Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 Pace picks up a bit. Round 23. About 86% now "uncontested" and $223 Million total. Down to 159 licenses without bids. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dkyeager Posted August 12, 2022 Share Posted August 12, 2022 Almost 89% and $250 Million after round 27. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dkyeager Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 Here is how many competitive permits are "remaining" in each state after round 27: (bonus points: reply with the states/territories/districts that are already "settled".) AL 4 AR 1 AS 2 AZ 5 CA 2 CO 53 DE 2 FL 5 GA 48 GU 3 HI 3 IA 40 ID 19 IL 7 IN 19 KS 113 KY 22 LA 9 MA 3 MD 11 ME 1 MI 48 MO 54 MP 10 MS 27 MT 33 NC 12 ND 22 NE 8 NH 1 NJ 2 NM 26 NV 17 NY 6 OH 24 OK 9 OR 2 PA 2 PR 1 SC 12 SD 47 TN 17 TX 36 UT 23 VA 8 WA 22 WI 22 WV 2 WY 11 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dkyeager Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 16 hours ago, dkyeager said: Here is how many competitive permits are "remaining" in each state after round 27: (bonus points: reply with the states/territories/districts that are already "settled".) AL 4 AR 1 AS 2 AZ 5 CA 2 CO 53 DE 2 FL 5 GA 48 GU 3 HI 3 IA 40 ID 19 IL 7 IN 19 KS 113 KY 22 LA 9 MA 3 MD 11 ME 1 MI 48 MO 54 MP 10 MS 27 MT 33 NC 12 ND 22 NE 8 NH 1 NJ 2 NM 26 NV 17 NY 6 OH 24 OK 9 OR 2 PA 2 PR 1 SC 12 SD 47 TN 17 TX 36 UT 23 VA 8 WA 22 WI 22 WV 2 WY 11 Likely completed states and territories and districts: Alaska AK Northern Mariana Islands CM Connecticut CT District of Columbia DC Minnesota MN Virgin Islands VI Vermont VT 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S4GRU Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 I really appreciate your updates on the auction @dkyeager. Thanks! Robert 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dkyeager Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 waiting for about 400 with demand > supply, or 95% to look again in some detail. Until then : https://www.sashajavid.com/FCC_Auction108.php#county_details_table_overlay 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dkyeager Posted August 19, 2022 Share Posted August 19, 2022 We are now at about 96.5% with demand = supply (which can individually change) at about $360 Million after round 43. We have 283 licenses where demand is greater than supply, 7,587 where demand currently equals supply, and 147 with less demand than supply. Looking at demand greater than supply by category, we get C1=15.5%, C2=47%, C3=37.5%. Surprising how small C1 is relative to the rest. The no bid licenses are about as earlier described: 100 encumbered, else Native American Licenses remaining by state or territory: State Licenses AL 36 AS 1 AZ 2 CO 10 GA 12 GU 2 IA 11 ID 1 IL 11 KS 28 KY 14 MA 1 ME 1 MI 7 MO 30 MP 3 MS 14 MT 4 NC 4 ND 7 NE 3 NM 6 NV 6 NY 3 OH 1 OK 3 OR 1 PA 2 SC 1 SD 14 TN 11 TX 1 UT 11 VA 3 WA 4 WI 4 WV 4 WY 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dkyeager Posted August 19, 2022 Share Posted August 19, 2022 Two rounds later, we are down to 222 competitive licenses, 147 with no demand, $367 Million. By Monday there may be more no demand licenses than those with greater demand. Historically it could go on for weeks or the FCC could raise the bid increments to effectively close it soon. source: https://www.sashajavid.com/FCC_Auction108.php#county_details_table_overlay 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dkyeager Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 https://www.rcrwireless.com/20220823/spectrum/auction-total-nears-400-million Article does not add much to what we are already posting here. No demand licenses are now greater than licenses with multiple bids at the end of round 54 (145 versus 120). Licenses in play keep moving around the map. Ohio had a few again the last time I looked. $400 Million in bids is imminent with the total at $399,646,420. If you are on a PC, find the current status of your county here: https://sashajavid.com/Auction108_County_Excess_Demand.php (give it a minute or two to fully load.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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