Official Tmobile-Sprint merger discussion thread

[Arysyn]

49 minutes ago, JThorson said:

I knew what you meant, just giving you a hard time...

 

I know you would like to see this happen. I would be surprised though if both the DOJ and FCC agree to this. Of course, time will tell.

Very true - anything can happen.

I'm surprised no other carrier has gone for Sprint in this time its taken for T-Mobile to try. I didn't expect AT&T to, although I still wouldn't be surprised if AT&T makes another shot at T-Mobile, especially if AT&T loses their Time Warner plan.

However, Sprint would be very good for Verizon. Seems like Verizon has been more cautious though with potential mergers, unlike AT&T and others. U.S. Cellular would be a good choice for Sprint to go after if Masa were to seriously try letting Sprint go at it alone.

Again, I really wouldn't mind seeing that from Sprint. They'd do fine alone with the right financial support and maybe some smaller acquisitions where Sprint is in control, such as U.S. Cellular. T-Mobile would be just as fine alone too, or with Dish.

I'm figuring this race to 5G is what will propel these mergers forward massively. If T-Mobile does get Sprint, I think its going to set a precedent among carriers to merge, in order to get big enough for their claim of needing more scope for 5G. Its how I think Charter and Comcast will try for Verizon should that happen. That likely will be a while though. In the meantime, my attention is on Dish.

[dro1984]

I don't think Verizon will try it to buy Dish.... with the AT&T / Time Warner deal being blocked... to me the Dish / Verizon thought is the same. 

Edited May 2, 2018 by Trip
Fixed bad quoting.

[Arysyn]

1 hour ago, dro1984 said:

 

dro, can you please re-edit your post here. I really don't want to be quoted as saying something I didn't say.

[Trip]

12 minutes ago, Arysyn said:

dro, can you please re-edit your post here. I really don't want to be quoted as saying something I didn't say.

I took care of it.

- Trip

[Mr.Nuke]

8 hours ago, Arysyn said:

I'm surprised no other carrier has gone for Sprint in this time its taken for T-Mobile to try. I didn't expect AT&T to, although I still wouldn't be surprised if AT&T makes another shot at T-Mobile, especially if AT&T loses their Time Warner plan.

No one other than Verizon or AT&T is in a position to merge/buyout with Sprint or T-Mobile, and no # 1or 2 carrier combining with a 3 or 4 was ever going to get regulatory approval.

[RedSpark]

16 hours ago, IamMrFamous07 said:

I want the merger to go through because I’m tired of the lack of commitments from Masa Son. If it doesn’t go through I can see it now “Sprint is recommitted to have the best Network in 2-3 years” and within that time frame Son will try to sell Sprint off. It’s a never ending cycle that’s been going on 4-5. This merger will put all that nonsense to rest.

 

if they want this merger to go through then NewCo needs to “create” the 4th competitor. They can offer Dish Network the sites they are decommissioning, NewCo can put those antennas on existing sites they plan to keep.

im not sure if Dish’s spectrum is capable of Mobile 5G but if it is then it’s a plus because then they are creating the second “mobile 5G” carrier 

 

 

I get what you’re saying. Masa put Sprint in an impossible position with no real money for Capex. He essentially had Marcelo as the hatchet man to get rid of the wasteful spending and bloated bureaucracy. However, the plan was always to tie up with T-Mobile all along and Marcelo knew that the whole time of his tenure as CEO.

I just can’t help but feel every bit of “coming soon” network messaging, up to and including the Massive MIMO/5G deployment announcement we got from Sprint on February 27, 2018 (http://newsroom.sprint.com/sprint-unveils-5g-ready-massive-mimo-markets.htm) was a delaying action to get us to this recent Merger announcement. There was never really a commitment to following through.

All the stories about Masa talking about Sprint’s Network Plans for the future, etc. It was all a mirage.

I think having 4 viable carriers in some form is extremely important for preserving competition.

[NYC126]

2 hours ago, RedSpark said:

I get what you’re saying. Masa put Sprint in an impossible position with no real money for Capex. He essentially had Marcelo as the hatchet man to get rid of the wasteful spending and bloated bureaucracy. However, the plan was always to tie up with T-Mobile all along and Marcelo knew that the whole time of his tenure as CEO.

I just can’t help but feel every bit of “coming soon” network messaging, up to and including the Massive MIMO/5G deployment announcement we got from Sprint on February 27, 2018 (http://newsroom.sprint.com/sprint-unveils-5g-ready-massive-mimo-markets.htm) was a delaying action to get us to this recent Merger announcement. There was never really a commitment to following through.

All the stories about Masa talking about Sprint’s Network Plans for the future, etc. It was all a mirage.

I think having 4 viable carriers in some form is extremely important for preserving competition.

If Softbank didn't own over 84% of the stock they would be massive class action suits against Sprint right now. They always were lying during their earning calls, there was never a turnaround for this company because that mean investments on your network. You could tell that Son never had an interest in fixing Sprint otherwise he would have made the investments on the network including getting into the 600mhz auction to get expansions and VOLTE rolling. Instead, he went on a credit card spending spree on a chip and robotic company hell he even invested in Uber too. Softbank could find a lot of money to buy ARM, but they couldn't invest at least 5 billion yearly in the Sprint network.

 

In order to keep frustrated customers, they came with an inexpensive band-aid fix in the Magic Box. Claure cut so much out of Sprint that he even closed call centers located here in America thus customer service started to take a hit. I hope the DOJ blocks this merger then it would force Softbank to sell Sprint for half the price to a cable company.

 

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/regulators-probing-t-mobile-deal-162152132.html

[tommym65]

47 minutes ago, SprintNYC said:

If Softbank didn't own over 84% of the stock they would be massive class action suits against Sprint right now.

.  .  . 

I hope the DOJ blocks this merger then it would force Softbank to sell Sprint for half the price to a cable company.

If the merger is blocked, Sprint will almost certainly simply crash and burn.  If the merger fails, it will take months, or years, for it to actually finally fail, and during that time, Masa-san and Softbank will not invest any money in capex, just like they haven't invested any since they bought Sprint in the first place.  Internal funding and independent borrowing have been, and will continue to be, incapable of keeping Sprint competitive.  No intelligent lender will risk loaning any money to the disintegrating shell of Sprint.  Expansion will basically die and Sprint will wither.  Data and phone service will deteriorate, and customers will leave in droves. 

By the time any viable corporation would be able to buy the leftovers, whether it be a cable company or some other company, Sprint would be so non-competitive that it might as well just turn itself off.  So, one way or the other, the T-Mobile/Sprint merger will result in 3 mobile companies surviving:  Either Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile/Sprint, or Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile alone.  The actual fact of announcing the proposed merger has left no forward path for a stand-alone Sprint.

[RedSpark]

1 hour ago, SprintNYC said:

If Softbank didn't own over 84% of the stock they would be massive class action suits against Sprint right now. They always were lying during their earning calls, there was never a turnaround for this company because that mean investments on your network. You could tell that Son never had an interest in fixing Sprint otherwise he would have made the investments on the network including getting into the 600mhz auction to get expansions and VOLTE rolling. Instead, he went on a credit card spending spree on a chip and robotic company hell he even invested in Uber too. Softbank could find a lot of money to buy ARM, but they couldn't invest at least 5 billion yearly in the Sprint network.

 

In order to keep frustrated customers, they came with an inexpensive band-aid fix in the Magic Box. Claure cut so much out of Sprint that he even closed call centers located here in America thus customer service started to take a hit. I hope the DOJ blocks this merger then it would force Softbank to sell Sprint for half the price to a cable company.

 

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/regulators-probing-t-mobile-deal-162152132.html

That's a great point.

Sprint went from saying "'600 MHz is 'spectrum of the past'" because of its 2.5 GHz Spectrum holdings:

“We did not participate in the 600 MHz (auction) not because we didn’t have money at the time, or we were under-resourced for it,” he said. “It is simply spectrum that is spectrum of the past. The world is moving toward high-capacity wireless data networks, and in that world the best and most efficient spectrum that is needed for that… is mid-band spectrum, the spectrum that we have, the 2.5 GHz spectrum.”

and so it pulled out of the 600 MHz auction.....

to now saying this about 600 MHz:  https://allfor5g.com/sparking-the-5g-economy/

Only T-Mobile Can Create the FIRST Nationwide 5G Network

There is only one company that has the right mix of available spectrum, financial strength and management expertise to create the FIRST nationwide 5G network. That is the New T-Mobile! The lifeblood of the wireless industry is spectrum and to build a 5G network, you need the right mix of available lowband, midband and high band. Only the New T-Mobile will have the right mix of available spectrum. With Sprint’s expansive 2.5 GHz spectrum, T-Mobile’s nationwide 600 MHz spectrum, and other combined assets, the New T-Mobile plans to create the highest capacity network in U.S. history. The U.S. must move quickly and our leadership can do just that. T-Mobile deployed nationwide LTE twice as fast as Verizon and three times as fast as AT&T.

-------------------------

It feels a bit surreal to be honest.... I don't know if we were supposed to believe this stuff about not needing 600 MHz all along or what, but it's a huge about-face in terms of a position. Misleading?... Yeah... I think so.

[Dkoellerwx]

1 hour ago, tommym65 said:

If the merger is blocked, Sprint will almost certainly simply crash and burn.  If the merger fails, it will take months, or years, for it to actually finally fail, and during that time, Masa-san and Softbank will not invest any money in capex, just like they haven't invested any since they bought Sprint in the first place.  Internal funding and independent borrowing have been, and will continue to be, incapable of keeping Sprint competitive.  No intelligent lender will risk loaning any money to the disintegrating shell of Sprint.  Expansion will basically die and Sprint will wither.  Data and phone service will deteriorate, and customers will leave in droves. 

Sprint was rolling along decently without a merger. Things have been looking much better for months, and we've already seen the results of the capex increase. There is NO indication that they are going to pull back on capex while this process is unfolding, so I believe your concerns here are unwarranted. 

[tommym65]

2 minutes ago, Dkoellerwx said:

Sprint was rolling along decently without a merger. Things have been looking much better for months, and we've already seen the results of the capex increase. There is NO indication that they are going to pull back on capex while this process is unfolding, so I believe your concerns here are unwarranted. 

Respectfully disagree. By hyping up the synergies of the merger, Sprint has basically said it doesn't have the resources to go it alone. This becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, simply because by saying it, Sprint will cause the analysts and financiers to believe it. 

The cat is out of the barn, or the horse is out of the bag, or something like that. 

[RedSpark]

4 minutes ago, Dkoellerwx said:

Sprint was rolling along decently without a merger. Things have been looking much better for months, and we've already seen the results of the capex increase. There is NO indication that they are going to pull back on capex while this process is unfolding, so I believe your concerns here are unwarranted. 

Looking at Page 17 (Liquidity) of the Investor Presentation, Sprint seems to be in fine shape as far as its Liquidity and Debt are concerned.

[Dkoellerwx]

1 minute ago, tommym65 said:

Respectfully disagree. By hyping up the synergies of the merger, Sprint has basically said it doesn't have the resources to go it alone. This becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, simply because by saying it, Sprint will cause the analysts and financiers to believe it. 

The cat is out of the barn, or the horse is out of the bag, or something like that. 

No, T-Mobile couldn't compete with 5G on it's own. Sprint already has a solid 5G plan in place. With T-Mobile spectrum, it would be even stronger. 

[NYC126]

10 minutes ago, RedSpark said:

That's a great point.

Sprint went from saying "'600 MHz is 'spectrum of the past'" because of its 2.5 GHz Spectrum holdings (explaining that's why it didn't need it)... and so it pulled out of the 600 MHz auction.....

to now saying this about 600 MHz:  https://allfor5g.com/sparking-the-5g-economy/

Only T-Mobile Can Create the FIRST Nationwide 5G Network

There is only one company that has the right mix of available spectrum, financial strength and management expertise to create the FIRST nationwide 5G network. That is the New T-Mobile! The lifeblood of the wireless industry is spectrum and to build a 5G network, you need the right mix of available lowband, midband and high band. Only the New T-Mobile will have the right mix of available spectrum. With Sprint’s expansive 2.5 GHz spectrum, T-Mobile’s nationwide 600 MHz spectrum, and other combined assets, the New T-Mobile plans to create the highest capacity network in U.S. history. The U.S. must move quickly and our leadership can do just that. T-Mobile deployed nationwide LTE twice as fast as Verizon and three times as fast as AT&T.

-------------------------

It feels a bit surreal to be honest.... I don't know if we were supposed to believe this stuff about not needing 600 MHz all along or what, but it's a huge about-face in terms of a position. Misleading?... Yeah... I think so.

It means both managements were in cahoots. Sprint for years was fighting hard to secure a 30mhz spectrum reserve in that 600mhz auction just at the last minute to bounce of planning to participate in that said auction and let Tmobile alone go for all of it.  The whole merger thing was happening behind the scenes it just they needed to make it official to the public after a new administration was established. They are not stupid, they waited that a new antitrust chief was appointed in the DOJ.

 

2 minutes ago, RedSpark said:

Looking at Page 17 (Liquidity) of the Investor Presentation, Sprint seems to be in fine shape as far as its Liquidity and Debt are concerned.

Another reason to block this merger.

[RedSpark]

2 minutes ago, SprintNYC said:

It means both managements were in cahoots. Sprint for years was fighting hard to secure a 30mhz spectrum reserve in that 600mhz auction just at the last minute to bounce of planning to participate in that said auction and let Tmobile alone go for all of it.  The whole merger thing was happening behind the scenes it just they needed to make it official to the public after a new administration was established. They are not stupid, they waited that a new antitrust chief was appointed in the DOJ.

 

Another reason to block this merger.

I always wondered why Sprint was pushing for that reserve in the 600 MHz auction and then completely backed out saying how it didn't need it.

Perhaps this really was the plan all along as you said.

If Masa wasn't such a big spender on ARM ($32 Billion!!!), Boston Robotics, Uber, etc., Sprint could have bought that 600 MHz, had a healthy amount of Capex to go along with it, and it wouldn't be merging with T-Mobile with a claim that: https://allfor5g.com/sparking-the-5g-economy/

Only T-Mobile Can Create the FIRST Nationwide 5G Network

There is only one company that has the right mix of available spectrum, financial strength and management expertise to create the FIRST nationwide 5G network. That is the New T-Mobile! The lifeblood of the wireless industry is spectrum and to build a 5G network, you need the right mix of available lowband, midband and high band. Only the New T-Mobile will have the right mix of available spectrum. With Sprint’s expansive 2.5 GHz spectrum, T-Mobile’s nationwide 600 MHz spectrum, and other combined assets, the New T-Mobile plans to create the highest capacity network in U.S. history. The U.S. must move quickly and our leadership can do just that. T-Mobile deployed nationwide LTE twice as fast as Verizon and three times as fast as AT&T.

----------------------

What a sad situation this is.

[NYC126]

5 minutes ago, RedSpark said:

I always wondered why Sprint was pushing for that reserve in the 600 MHz auction and then completely backed out saying how it didn't need it.

Perhaps this really was the plan all along as you said.

If Masa wasn't such a big spender on ARM ($32 Billion!!!), Boston Robotics, Uber, etc., Sprint could have bought that 600 MHz, had a healthy amount of Capex to go along with it, and it wouldn't be merging with T-Mobile with a claim that: https://allfor5g.com/sparking-the-5g-economy/

Only T-Mobile Can Create the FIRST Nationwide 5G Network

There is only one company that has the right mix of available spectrum, financial strength and management expertise to create the FIRST nationwide 5G network. That is the New T-Mobile! The lifeblood of the wireless industry is spectrum and to build a 5G network, you need the right mix of available lowband, midband and high band. Only the New T-Mobile will have the right mix of available spectrum. With Sprint’s expansive 2.5 GHz spectrum, T-Mobile’s nationwide 600 MHz spectrum, and other combined assets, the New T-Mobile plans to create the highest capacity network in U.S. history. The U.S. must move quickly and our leadership can do just that. T-Mobile deployed nationwide LTE twice as fast as Verizon and three times as fast as AT&T.

----------------------

What a sad situation this is.

What piss me off is they gave up all the company away without having any veto power in the board but hey at least they made Pink Mobile to pick the whole 36 billions of debt. This power play was designed by the Japanese banks, they made Son squeeze hard.

[bigsnake49]

36 minutes ago, SprintNYC said:

It means both managements were in cahoots. Sprint for years was fighting hard to secure a 30mhz spectrum reserve in that 600mhz auction just at the last minute to bounce of planning to participate in that said auction and let Tmobile alone go for all of it.  The whole merger thing was happening behind the scenes it just they needed to make it official to the public after a new administration was established. They are not stupid, they waited that a new antitrust chief was appointed in the DOJ.

 

Another reason to block this merger.

Negative cashflow for yet another quarter, negative income for yet another quarter, 44,000 net additions when T-Mobile added a million, yeah, Sprint is doing really well! They have been stuck at 55M customers for what, five years? Softbank's acquisition of Sprint has been a disaster.

Edited May 2, 2018 by bigsnake49

[twospirits]

6 minutes ago, SprintNYC said:

What piss me off is they gave up all the company away without having any veto power in the board but hey at least they made Pink Mobile to pick the whole 36 billions of debt. This power play was designed by the Japanese banks, they made Son squeeze hard.

To add to the "what pisses me off" bandwagon, I really do not like that there isn't any break up fee from what I've seen. If the regulators from the FCC or Dept of Justice kill the merger Sprint gets nothing. Granted, Sprint will get $600 million if T-Mobile decides to not do the merger, but seriously, that's pennies compared to the $4 Billion breakup fee T-Mobile got from AT&T. And no matter what anyone tries to convince me otherwise, that $4 billion T-Mobile got from AT&T helped them quite a bit. 

[bigsnake49]

6 minutes ago, twospirits said:

To add to the "what pisses me off" bandwagon, I really do not like that there isn't any break up fee from what I've seen. If the regulators from the FCC or Dept of Justice kill the merger Sprint gets nothing. Granted, Sprint will get $600 million if T-Mobile decides to not do the merger, but seriously, that's pennies compared to the $4 Billion breakup fee T-Mobile got from AT&T. And no matter what anyone tries to convince me otherwise, that $4 billion T-Mobile got from AT&T helped them quite a bit. 

It's a total of $6B. Plus a $5B of debt forgiven by DT.

[jreuschl]

Let's face it..  the big reason why any of us S4GRU people would want this merger to go through is we know T-Mobile would move in a rapid pace, quicker than Sprint ever has, getting B41 on all sites.  Sometimes I feel like it would take T-Mobile to get B41 on all sites, and I'm not just talking about ones in the middle of nowhere.

TM has been bragging about their B71 expansion and how many sites in a week they have completed.  Has Sprint ever been able to brag like this?

[Paynefanbro]

5 minutes ago, jreuschl said:

Let's face it..  the big reason why any of us S4GRU people would want this merger to go through is we know T-Mobile would move in a rapid pace, quicker than Sprint ever has, getting B41 on all sites.  Sometimes I feel like it would take T-Mobile to get B41 on all sites, and I'm not just talking about ones in the middle of nowhere.

The main reason why is access to a GSM network and the huge heap of spectrum...for me at least. In terms of what added (or lost) benefits we'll get from it, I don't want to lose Sprint's international plans or 10GB of full speed hotspot included with my plan.

[RedSpark]

9 minutes ago, bigsnake49 said:

It's a total of $6B. Plus a $5B of debt forgiven by DT.

Depends how it’s valued:

In announcing on Monday that it was ending the $39 billion takeover attempt, AT&T said it would pay T-Mobile’s parent, Deutsche Telekom, a $4 billion breakup fee. But on Tuesday morning, Deutsche Telekom officials placed the value of the fee at a significantly higher $6 billion.

What’s behind the wide gap between the two numbers? As it turns out, it’s a matter of accounting.

The fee comprises both $3 billion in cash and cellular airwaves, known in the industry as spectrum. It is the latter that accounts for the divergence. AT&T is using the book value of the spectrum, which is about $1 billion, people briefed on the matter told DealBook. But Deutsche Telekom is citing the market value of the spectrum, which it calculates at about $3 billion.

[greenbastard]

12 minutes ago, bigsnake49 said:

It's a total of $6B. Plus a $5B of debt forgiven by DT.

The spectrum helped them more. It has had a longer impact  on the T-Mobile network. That cash they got was probably used up within a year. The spectrum is still adding value to the T-Mobile network.

[RedSpark]

24 minutes ago, greenbastard said:

The spectrum helped them more. It has had a longer impact  on the T-Mobile network. That cash they got was probably used up within a year. The spectrum is still adding value to the T-Mobile network.

T-Mobile was als in a position to execute on that spectrum. It had Fiber backhaul running to its tower sites... whereas Sprint pre-Network Vision did not on a substantial number of them. It had T-1's or bundled T-1's if I recall correctly.

The delays and costs of getting backhaul to the sites (and the substantial number of customers fleeing while this went on as part of Network Vision) played an integral role as to where we are today.

[dkyeager]

Softbank is a conglomerate.  Sprint is not their most important investment overall.  They can still complete their strategy by owning a smaller slice of a bigger wireless company, especially one that generates its own cash flow.  The money Softbank initially planned on putting into Sprint was consumed by a bidding war with Dish over Clearwire.  It is hard to raise dedicated money post buyout.  Sprint going alone has a lot higher risks than a merger (both are significant risks), especially when increasing cost of capital in markets is likely.  Besides the technical aspects, Sprint needs far better marketing and T-Mobile can likely deliver in that area.

As a customer, everything will depend whether I get quality service where I need it post merger + a year or two. Otherwise I will go with the carrier that serves me best.   Eliminate my favorite towers or redirect them would accelerate this.  If they get updated to Next-Gen before the merger, the odds will increase that I will stay and buy new phones.