Official Tmobile-Sprint merger discussion thread

[Tengen31]

“When you look at our guidance for fiscal year ’16, we continue to say that we expect adjusted cash flow to be around breakeven, which reflects the fact that we are reducing our capex guidance from less than $3 billion to (a range of) $2 billion to $2.3 billion,” CFO Tarek Robbiati said during an earnings call this morning.

The move marks at least the third time Sprint has lowered its capex guidance for fiscal year 2016. In May it reduced the figure from $4.5 billion to $3 billion, then in October it lowered it from $3 billion to “less than $3 billion.”

http://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/sprint-lowers-capex-guidance-again-raising-concerns-over-network

That proofs nothing. That article is only 9-10 months old. Towers are a 2 year process.

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[bigsnake49]

3 minutes ago, Tengen31 said:

That proofs nothing. That article is only 9-10 months old. Towers are a 2 year process.

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It proves that Sprint's promises are just that, promises. They should be taken with a giant block of salt. Himalayan salt at that :). The proof is in the pudding and so far all that Sprint has is the water, no eggs, no nothing.

Edited October 13, 2017 by bigsnake49

[utiz4321]

On 10/12/2017 at 7:47 AM, RedSpark said:

You and I are the market... but you have to decide whether you are looking at the market as a customer or as an investor.

As an investor, a person wants "Return on Investment". All this noise about scale, merger, etc. That's institutional investor PR and FUD to move the stock price around. Unless I'm holding Sprint stock directly or through some investment vehicle, I don't care about return on investment.

As a Sprint customer, I care about good service at a good price:

Do I think merging with T-Mobile will "improve" my Sprint service through increased scale? Sure.

Do I think it will result in higher prices from less competition? Absolutely.

Is it necessary for Sprint to merge for the company to survive? Absolutely not. Sprint can succeed on its own. Just look at what T-Mobile has been able to do.

You and are not the market. The market isn't even a person or persons. It is the aggrogation of millions of decisions being made everyday.  

 

You price argument points to only one of the relavent factors, the elimination of a competitor. It doesn't look at the returns to scales and cost reduction invovled in merging the two carriers. What happens to price will be determined by all these factors together not just one. 

[kg4icg]

Actually we are just subscribers to a service provider to celluar voice and data service, the market is investors who are risking money to capatalize in benefits later. Even a 401k account holder isn't the market for the funds you submit are being used by a investment firm to capatalize and grow.

[dro1984]

I agree with Bigsnake...

What would partnering with USCelluar do?   Having AWS spectrum is great, but again... You need funding to put it up on the towers and use it!   Sprint has tons of 2500 spectrum.  They just don't have all the funding to use it.  It sits.  .. and sits... ...  and we wait... 

More over, if the merger fails, or they walk away, how do you think this will make Sprint look?   They (Sprint) already looks incredibly desperate as they've tried  hoping in bed with  just about every available opportunity.   Masa has tried sweet talking to Cable Co's, Dish... T-Mobile... who knows who else.... everyone up until now, has said "No thank you!".    T-Mobile still might say no thanks... It's like a Three Stooges short where the Bride is about to get hitched, then the groom pulls the veil back and she's ugly with missing teeth!   Yikes!     But with the mass majority of wireless customers on Verizon or AT&T in the US Market (2/3's of the subscribers) I don't see many of them migrating to Sprint when all this dust settles.   Stagnant growth... very small... As an investor... the stock will probably settle around $2-$3 bucks a share if this fails.   

I don't know folks... it's just not looking good without any action.   Those Investor meetings will be getting  pretty ugly!    

Edited October 13, 2017 by dro1984

[dkyeager]

11 hours ago, RedSpark said:

I don’t think it’s too late for Sprint.

Similar things were said about T-Mobile at one point...

Apple too for that matter.

 

1 hour ago, bigsnake49 said:

“When you look at our guidance for fiscal year ’16, we continue to say that we expect adjusted cash flow to be around breakeven, which reflects the fact that we are reducing our capex guidance from less than $3 billion to (a range of) $2 billion to $2.3 billion,” CFO Tarek Robbiati said during an earnings call this morning.

The move marks at least the third time Sprint has lowered its capex guidance for fiscal year 2016. In May it reduced the figure from $4.5 billion to $3 billion, then in October it lowered it from $3 billion to “less than $3 billion.”

http://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/sprint-lowers-capex-guidance-again-raising-concerns-over-network

The Window of Opportunity concept refers to the time when it is best to invest and deliver on a new idea.  Too early can be a waste of money (WiMAX in hindsight), too late leaves you with not much to gain (current).  It will be quite expensive to build out 5g, which is what Verizon will do to differentiate themselves in the market and to justify a higher price.  Could there be other windows of opportunity for Sprint beyond this possible merger?  Yes, but Sprint will have to wait for another carrier to stumble and also Sprint would hopefully be able to pay off more debt beforehand so they would have the capital (or better access to it) to seize such a new opportunity.  Will Sprint immediately die without a merger? No.  Sprint could continue to grow but at a much slower pace, although it might also slowly decline.  Sprint would likely continue to look for new partners.

Vast additional sums of money would be needed to build out 5G in many major metropolitan markets in a significant fashion (ie noticeable on a daily basis by many people).  Additional large sums are needed to make everyone aware of this (marketing).

[dkyeager]

iirc US Cellular leases most of its spectrum from King Partners.  I believe they have been approached over the years about selling the spectrum and US Cellular, but they have no interest.  Sprint did manage to peel some spectrum and sites away a few years ago.

[Rawvega]

18 minutes ago, dro1984 said:

They (Sprint) already looks incredibly desperate as they've tried  hoping in bed with  just about every available opportunity.   Masa has tried sweet talking to Cable Co's, Dish... T-Mobile... who knows who else.... everyone up until now, has said "No thank you!".   

Dish? When exactly did this occur?

 

Quote

   As an investor... the stock will probably settle around $2-$3 bucks a share if this fails.   

Possible I suppose as it has been there before, but I wouldn't necessarily put too much stock (no pun intended) into what Craig Muppett says.

[dro1984]

51 minutes ago, Rawvega said:

Dish? When exactly did this occur?

 

 

Okay... Let's be "that way"... if you insist...      Do you really need proof that Masa Son has talked to just about every possible available non-merged Cable and Teleco? !  

Let's see... he's talked or tried with Dish (See below,)

Charter, Comcast, T-Mobile, probably others...

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/01/dish-network-becomes-latest-telecom-stock-to-spike-on-report-softbank-may-buy-it.html

Edited October 13, 2017 by dro1984

[Rawvega]

Okay... Let's be "that way"... if you insist...      Do you really need proof that Masa Son has talked to just about every possible available non-merged Cable and Teleco? !  
Let's see... he's talked or tried with Dish (See below,)
Charter, Comcast, T-Mobile, probably others...
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/01/dish-network-becomes-latest-telecom-stock-to-spike-on-report-softbank-may-buy-it.html

I'm not being any "way". I asked you a simple question.

Btw, taking every anonymous report as gospel might not be the best idea, but hey do you.

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[danlodish345]

1 hour ago, Rawvega said:

 

 

I'm not being any "way". I asked you a simple question.

Btw, taking every anonymous report as gospel might not be the best idea, but hey do you.

Sent from my SM-N920P using Tapatalk
 

 

i m just interested to see how this all plays out....

[RedSpark]

3 hours ago, utiz4321 said:

You and are not the market. The market isn't even a person or persons. It is the aggrogation of millions of decisions being made everyday.  

 

You price argument points to only one of the relavent factors, the elimination of a competitor. It doesn't look at the returns to scales and cost reduction invovled in merging the two carriers. What happens to price will be determined by all these factors together not just one. 

We most definitely are the market. Individual decisions define the market.

I don't believe the cost advantages through increased scale in this case will get passed onto customers. That only happens with enough competitors, and removing one from the market makes it less likely these savings will get passed along. Instead, there's less competitive incentive for the remaining players and an increased risk of collusion.

[RedSpark]

2 hours ago, dkyeager said:

 

The Window of Opportunity concept refers to the time when it is best to invest and deliver on a new idea.  Too early can be a waste of money (WiMAX in hindsight), too late leaves you with not much to gain (current).  It will be quite expensive to build out 5g, which is what Verizon will do to differentiate themselves in the market and to justify a higher price.  Could there be other windows of opportunity for Sprint beyond this possible merger?  Yes, but Sprint will have to wait for another carrier to stumble and also Sprint would hopefully be able to pay off more debt beforehand so they would have the capital (or better access to it) to seize such a new opportunity.  Will Sprint immediately die without a merger? No.  Sprint could continue to grow but at a much slower pace, although it might also slowly decline.  Sprint would likely continue to look for new partners.

Vast additional sums of money would be needed to build out 5G in many major metropolitan markets in a significant fashion (ie noticeable on a daily basis by many people).  Additional large sums are needed to make everyone aware of this (marketing).

Sprint is doing well on its own in my opinion. As long as it can pay down its debt and keep expanding its network over time, it doesn't matter to me what the other players are doing. This is a long game. Sprint has the spectrum advantage to win this.

[Paynefanbro]

What are the chances that if this were to go through we'd end up with a Rogers/Fido situation where they have separate name and for all intents and purposes are separate carriers but they share a network?

[Tengen31]

What are the chances that if this were to go through we'd end up in a Rogers/Fido situation where they have separate name and for all intents and purposes are separate carriers but they share a network?

Interesting. Do they share all the same LTE bands?

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[Paynefanbro]

1 minute ago, Tengen31 said:

Interesting. Do they share all the same LTE bands?

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I'm pretty sure yeah. Fido initially had their own network using PCS and after Rogers bought them, they began sharing networks but never fully merged into just one carrier.

[RAvirani]

1 hour ago, Paynefanbro said:

I'm pretty sure yeah. Fido initially had their own network using PCS and after Rogers bought them, they began sharing networks but never fully merged into just one carrier.

It’s the same deal with Bell/TELUS. Same network different brands.

There are only two nationwide networks in Canada. ROGERS/Fido and Bell/TELUS. 

[Terrell352]

17 hours ago, RedSpark said:

Sprint is doing well on its own in my opinion. As long as it can pay down its debt and keep expanding its network over time, it doesn't matter to me what the other players are doing. This is a long game. Sprint has the spectrum advantage to win this.

For now Sprint has the most spectrum but Verizon is still faster than Sprint in a lot of areas and this is before 800 cellular, AWS3 and a significant investment in 5G that Verizon still has up its sleeve. I don’t think Sprint’s spectrum advantage is as big as it was before unless they actually get it on 90% or more of towers and get small cells everywhere which is exactly what they are trying to do but we will have to wait and see if for once they can do this at a break neck pace.

[bigsnake49]

7 hours ago, RAvirani said:

It’s the same deal with Bell/TELUS. Same network different brands.

There are only two nationwide networks in Canada. ROGERS/Fido and Bell/TELUS. 

I am hoping that they merge their networks in some fashion whether with a full on merger or just merging the networks.

I admire what T-Mobile has done but I wonder where they would be without the break up fee from AT&T and the $5Bdebt forgiveness that they got from the mothership? 

[chamb]

9 minutes ago, bigsnake49 said:

I am hoping that they merge their networks in some fashion whether with a full on merger or just merging the networks.

 

Yep, my thoughts too. No full merger.  Just figure out how to quit building duplicate cell sites. Share. Modern phones already have most of the bands. Customers of both companies use both networks. No roaming, just both networks are native.  If they do a full merger, chances are some spectrum will have to go.   If they can agree to be friends and help each other especially in the rural areas, they can retain all spectrum.  It no longer matters about GSM and CDMA, it will all be LTE soon. 

They can still have two brands. Have two networks that look like one network.  Maybe form a third company to manage the combined networks. The accounting  and management would be the issue.

It is not a technical issue.  The networks can be made to work together.  Stop building two cell sites in the same block.  Quit trying to both cover the very rural areas. Build one site and both companies have access.

[bigsnake49]

8 minutes ago, chamb said:

Yep, my thoughts too. No full merger.  Just figure out how to quit building duplicate cell sites. Share. Modern phones already have most of the bands. Customers of both companies use both networks. No roaming, just both networks are native.  If they do a full merger, chances are some spectrum will have to go.   If they can agree to be friends and help each other especially in the rural areas, they can retain all spectrum.  It no longer matters about GSM and CDMA, it will all be LTE soon. 

They can still have two brands. Have two networks that look like one network.  Maybe form a third company to manage the combined networks. The accounting  and management would be the issue.

It is not a technical issue.  The networks can be made to work together.  Stop building two cell sites in the same block.  Quit trying to both cover the very rural areas. Build one site and both companies have access.

The cleanest way to do that is to form a third not for profit company that leases the spectrum from the parent company and is solely responsible for network deployment and maintenance. The parent company will then pay the network company for service.

[WiWavelength]

18 hours ago, RAvirani said:

It’s the same deal with Bell/TELUS. Same network different brands.

There are only two nationwide networks in Canada. ROGERS/Fido and Bell/TELUS. 

Eh, hold the phone.  Not present tense.  Future tense.  That network sharing agreement is nascent, announced just this year.

In the past, Bell and Telus were east and west, exclusively and respectively, with reciprocal roaming agreements.  Then, following additional Industry Canada auctions, Bell acquired spectrum in at least Vancouver and built out its own network, likewise, Telus in Toronto, Montreal, etc.  Only now is that overbuilding competition getting undone.

AJ

[Nextel49]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.yahoo.com/amphtml/finance/news/exclusive-t-mobile-sprint-aim-announce-merger-without-211417580--finance.html#ampshare=https://www.yahoo.com/tech/exclusive-t-mobile-sprint-aim-announce-merger-without-211417580--finance.html

[utiz4321]

19 hours ago, Nextel49 said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.yahoo.com/amphtml/finance/news/exclusive-t-mobile-sprint-aim-announce-merger-without-211417580--finance.html#ampshare=https://www.yahoo.com/tech/exclusive-t-mobile-sprint-aim-announce-merger-without-211417580--finance.html

If they pull this off I think the home ISP argument becomes better. 

[Nextel49]

They need to figure out how to work CDMA and GSM maybe we'll do the CDMA side for voice and talk or the use GSM data who knows how to convert those two on the phones