Official Tmobile-Sprint merger discussion thread

[RedSpark]

15 minutes ago, Tengen31 said:

Odd. I thought new TMobile was keeping that?

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They are “keeping” it.... sort of. Sprint sold it and is leasing it back for 10 years.

New T-Mobile will assume the lease.

[Swordfish]

On 7/29/2019 at 5:37 AM, dro1984 said:

I'm so tired of this argument for so many reasons!   Airwaves and towers cost money...  equipment, people...   etc... do you really expect costs to NOT go up over the years?    Does the cost of food, drugs, and fuel not rise constantly?   Why do you think the cost of phone/internet service should not go up?   

I truly think and believe what they have been saying ... when you combine the networks and there is a lot of available band width... they will try to fill it...  I think since there will be more, prices for service will probably drop.   But if they don't, I can understand why.       

You'll have to forgive me. I'm from California so I expect to be given everything for free and not work for it. Not sure if that makes sense 

[red_dog007]

It'll be interesting how the 5G plays out.  Right now, costs are up on Sprint if you want to be part of 5G.  Having to be on their absolute newest top tier plan.  Does Sprint even allow you to have a 5G phone and not be on the Unlimited Premium plan?

This is the avenue that which New-TMobile will be able to easily raise rates buy pushing customers to newer plans, or having add-on for existing plans.  At the least a huge whole for reps to exploit. 

As it is, 5G is more expensive.  even without this merger prices are going up.  Only time will tell if these newer higher prices become normal, or if 5G access will be sold on current priced lower tiered plans and/or without needing to buy 5G add-on to your plan.

[RedSpark]

5 minutes ago, red_dog007 said:

It'll be interesting how the 5G plays out.  Right now, costs are up on Sprint if you want to be part of 5G.  Having to be on their absolute newest top tier plan.  Does Sprint even allow you to have a 5G phone and not be on the Unlimited Premium plan?

This is the avenue that which New-TMobile will be able to easily raise rates buy pushing customers to newer plans, or having add-on for existing plans.  At the least a huge whole for reps to exploit. 

As it is, 5G is more expensive.  even without this merger prices are going up.  Only time will tell if these newer higher prices become normal, or if 5G access will be sold on current priced lower tiered plans and/or without needing to buy 5G add-on to your plan.

No. Apparently, you can’t even activate a 5G phone without the Unlimited Premium plan on the account.... unless you have a legacy ED plan.

Good points here.

[dkyeager]

Altice USA said Wednesday that it has secured a new nationwide roaming contract with AT&T that complements the coverage it's getting from Altice USA's underlying full MVNO deal with Sprint and the cable operator's own WiFi network.

The deal with AT&T "ensures an aggregate 99% nationwide coverage" when Altice Mobile launches later this year, Dexter Goei, Altice USA's CEO, explained today on a media call timed with company's Q2 2019 financial results. The AT&T deal will give Altice's forthcoming mobile service coverage in areas where Sprint does not offer service.

Altice USA has also inked some new international roaming contracts with multiple partners that will provide additional global coverage, he added.

 

Goei also reiterated that Altice USA's agreement with Sprint is poised to be expanded to the new T-Mobile network, inclusive of 5G services, via a contract extension pursuant to the DoJ's conditions on the proposed T-Mobile/Sprint merger and T-Mobile's merger commitments to the FCC.

source: https://www.lightreading.com/mobile/altice-usa-signs-atandt-to-nationwide-roaming-deal-/d/d-id/753161?

These are the kind of details that are buried in the DOJ agreements.  Hopefully it gets printed in the federal register soon.

[Trip]

Looks like Shentel's earnings call is tomorrow at 10AM.  I wonder if they'll say anything about the merger.

- Trip

[chamb]

34 minutes ago, Trip said:

Looks like Shentel's earnings call is tomorrow at 10AM.  I wonder if they'll say anything about the merger.

- Trip

Probably very little if any. Until things are settled totally, I would think everybody is going to be quiet and cautious.

[red_dog007]

With how the agreement is structured, if the merger goes through is it that TMobile has the option to buy Shentel's wireless business? Or is it that Shentel has the option to sell their wireless business?

If Shentel keeps the business, which I'd expect they would want to, they either have to buy TMobile subscribers or buy all the available 600/AWS3 spectrum available in their market as they will become spectrum starved and lack low band.  I'd expect for them to increase cash on hand, or remove a bit of debt for the anticipation of the merger closing.  

Edited August 5, 2019 by red_dog007

[Trip]

2 hours ago, red_dog007 said:

With how the agreement is structured, if the merger goes through is it that TMobile has the option to buy Shentel's wireless business? Or is it that Shentel has the option to sell their wireless business?

If Shentel keeps the business, which I'd expect they would want to, they either have to buy TMobile subscribers or buy all the available 600/AWS3 spectrum available in their market as they will become spectrum starved and lack low band.  I'd expect for them to increase cash on hand, or remove a bit of debt for the anticipation of the merger closing.  

Shentel does not own any spectrum.  They operate a network they constructed on Sprint's spectrum.

My understanding is that within a certain number of days of the close of the sale, the merged entity has to inform Shentel of what it wants to do.  There are three options, and I'm not going to promise that I remember them perfectly.

1) New T-Mobile buys Shentel at a premium.  I don't remember the details, but I recall that even though Shentel doesn't own the spectrum, the company is valued as if it owned the spectrum in the buy-out. 

2) New T-Mobile sells the T-Mobile customers and network to Shentel at a discount.  Again, I don't recall the specifics, but I recall something about 75% of the actual value, and New T-Mobile must help finance the purchase at a very good rate if Shentel requests such financing.

3) New T-Mobile doesn't do anything.  Shentel remains in business, but doesn't get the network assets or the customers in the region.  However, New T-Mobile must then shut down the T-Mobile network in the Shentel region within two years.

To me, it clearly feels structured to keep Shentel in business.  In options 1 and 2, Shentel gets a great deal, and even the "do nothing" option ends up with Shentel still in business and New T-Mobile not running a competing network.  It seems designed to encourage option 2, or at least, that's how I read it.

- Trip

[joshnys8913]

I am wondering how US Cellular is going to survive, maybe US Cellular and Dish can get together? LOL 

[Tengen31]

I am wondering how US Cellular is going to survive, maybe US Cellular and Dish can get together? LOL 

I think USCC uses TMobile and Sprint outside their footprint. They could continue to use TMO and Dish. If the merger would have failed I would like to have seen Sprint merge with them. Even as far as getting rid of the Sprint name and take USCC

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[joshnys8913]

11 minutes ago, Tengen31 said:

I think USCC uses TMobile and Sprint outside their footprint. They could continue to use TMO and Dish. If the merger would have failed I would like to have seen Sprint merge with them. Even as far as getting rid of the Sprint name and take USCC

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When US Cellular sold Sprint the Chicago market of their licences/spectrum a couple of years ago (I think that is how that happened if memory serves me right), I thought that was going to be the beginning of Sprint buying the rest of US Cellular but I was wrong obviously. 

[Tengen31]

When US Cellular sold Sprint the Chicago market of their licences/spectrum a couple of years ago (I think that is how that happened if memory serves me right), I thought that was going to be the beginning of Sprint buying the rest of US Cellular but I was wrong obviously. 

They bought USCC where USCC couldn't do LTE.

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[IrwinshereAgain]

Does this merger put some or most of Dish's spectrum in service either by Dish or via lease to T-Mobile?

[red_dog007]

13 hours ago, Trip said:

Shentel does not own any spectrum.  They operate a network they constructed on Sprint's spectrum.

My understanding is that within a certain number of days of the close of the sale, the merged entity has to inform Shentel of what it wants to do.  There are three options, and I'm not going to promise that I remember them perfectly.

1) New T-Mobile buys Shentel at a premium.  I don't remember the details, but I recall that even though Shentel doesn't own the spectrum, the company is valued as if it owned the spectrum in the buy-out. 

2) New T-Mobile sells the T-Mobile customers and network to Shentel at a discount.  Again, I don't recall the specifics, but I recall something about 75% of the actual value, and New T-Mobile must help finance the purchase at a very good rate if Shentel requests such financing.

3) New T-Mobile doesn't do anything.  Shentel remains in business, but doesn't get the network assets or the customers in the region.  However, New T-Mobile must then shut down the T-Mobile network in the Shentel region within two years.

To me, it clearly feels structured to keep Shentel in business.  In options 1 and 2, Shentel gets a great deal, and even the "do nothing" option ends up with Shentel still in business and New T-Mobile not running a competing network.  It seems designed to encourage option 2, or at least, that's how I read it.

- Trip

Yeah. Those seem like the options without looking at them directly.

2 and 3 make Shentel need money.  2 they have to buy TMobile subs or 3 they have to buy spectrum.  I think option 2 is the most likely, and they do get TMobile financing, but then they still might pay some cash upfront or finance with someone else if they can find a better rate.  So at most, I'd expect them to either pump up cash reserves or pay down debt higher than normal.  

Now for option 1, the way I have seen it written, it sounds like TMobile has the option to buy Shentel wireless business (not all of Shentel, just the wireless business portion).  But it is written in such a way it makes it sound like TMobile has the option to buy, not Shentel has the option to sell.  So it could potentially end up being a hostile takeover by TMobile if Shentel never actually wanted to sell their business but are legally obligated.  

 

As far as the spectrum, I assumed they got ntelos licenses when they bought the remaining portion that wasn't sold to TMobile. 

Edited August 6, 2019 by red_dog007

[Trip]

2 minutes ago, red_dog007 said:

Now for option 1, the way I have seen it written, it sounds like TMobile has the option to buy Shentel wireless business (not all of Shentel, just the wireless business portion).  But it is written in such a way it makes it sound like TMobile has the option to buy, not Shentel has the option to sell.  So it could potentially end up being a hostile takeover by TMobile if Shentel never actually wanted to sell their business but are legally obligated.  

Right, I was unclear, but yes, it's the wireless business, not the whole company.  I wouldn't go quite so far as to say "hostile takeover" but you're right that I've read it as T-Mobile has the option to buy, rather than Shentel having the option to sell.  If T-Mobile wants to buy them out, the deal they've made obligates them to accept, though Shentel does get a very healthy payout for it, so they can only be so upset.

Honestly, it's Option 1 that I fear the most.  Option 3, I believe, ends up with them rebuilding their network to support 600/700/AWS, but I don't get the impression that they'd have to buy the spectrum, as that makes no sense if T-Mobile is required to shut down the competing network.  But they wouldn't have the added income of the existing T-Mobile customers in the region or the discounted gear to jump start the build.

Option 2 sounds like what Shentel wants to me--buy the customers at a discount to have them as added income, and get some of the 600/700/AWS gear at a discount to help get that build started.  And, quite honestly, if I were in charge at T-Mobile, I would be glad to have the historically troublesome West Virginia market off my plate and in the hands of someone who has already made it competitive with less spectrum and especially with less low-band spectrum.  Obviously, adding 600 and 700 in West Virginia, in particular, will help a lot.

I'm just worried T-Mobile might want to be able to say they own their whole network and do it as a point of pride, even if it's super expensive to do so via Option 1.

- Trip

[Trip]

On the Shentel call, they cannot provide comment on the various options, as expected, but the options were spelled out.  The fourth option spelled out, of course, is a mutual agreement with T-Mobile for a new affiliation agreement.

- Trip

[bigsnake49]

13 hours ago, IrwinshereAgain said:

Does this merger put some or most of Dish's spectrum in service either by Dish or via lease to T-Mobile?

Yes, the T-Mobile has the option to lease Dish's 600Mhz spectrum. Dish is obligated to deploy their spectrum and cover 70% of all Americans within 4 years.

[Trip]

They've bought some 2.5 GHz spectrum for fixed use, as shown in their presentation on page 18: https://investor.shentel.com/static-files/1de15196-74e9-42bf-9237-7f820c1a9b93

Q&A just ended.  Key items: 

Apparently 90% of Shentel's prepaid is Boost.  They don't know how the settlement impacts them from that perspective.

Said that Richmond sliver expansion is still moving forward, though I've seen little evidence of that.

If deal falls through, would consider expanding further with Sprint.

- Trip

[dkyeager]

15 minutes ago, Trip said:

They've bought some 2.5 GHz spectrum for fixed use, as shown in their presentation on page 18: https://investor.shentel.com/static-files/1de15196-74e9-42bf-9237-7f820c1a9b93

Q&A so far: 

Apparently 90% of Shentel's prepaid is Boost.  They don't know how the settlement impacts them from that perspective.

Said that Richmond sliver expansion is still moving forward, though I've seen little evidence of that.

If deal falls through, would consider expanding further with Sprint.

- Trip

Interesting that they plan on using carrier grade 5G for their WISP.  Puts them very much in line with T-Mobiles plans/precludes them.

[bigsnake49]

Instead of waiting for another 4 months, can T-Mobile and Sprint come to a side agreement and start integrating their networks by Sprint leasing their spectrum to T-Mobile and having them free roam on T-Mobile? Basically do the same thing as agreed but without waiting for the trial.

Edited August 7, 2019 by bigsnake49

[radem]

30 minutes ago, bigsnake49 said:

Instead of waiting for another 4 months, can T-Mobile and Sprint come to a side agreement and start integrating their networks by Sprint leasing their spectrum to T-Mobile and having them free roam on T-Mobile? Basically do the same thing as agreed but without waiting for the trial.

As soon as they tried to do this, the states suing them would almost certainly ask the court for a temporary injunction preventing them from making this type of change until the court cases are settled.

[S4GRU]

34 minutes ago, bigsnake49 said:

Instead of waiting for another 4 months, can T-Mobile and Sprint come to a side agreement and start integrating their networks by Sprint leasing their spectrum to T-Mobile and having them free roam on T-Mobile? Basically do the same thing as agreed but without waiting for the trial.

I would be concerned as that might seem anti-competitive or collusion.  States would go wild in their cases against them.

Robert

[tyroned3222]

I would be concerned as that might seem anti-competitive or collusion.  States would go wild in their cases against them.
Robert

Many analyst believe that is what’s happening behind closed doors


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[Tengen31]

I would be concerned as that might seem anti-competitive or collusion.  States would go wild in their cases against them.

Robert

States are also determined to ruin coverage. If Sprint has to go on their own they will only be in the cites which is frustrating outside of bigger cities. Plus Sprints lack of low band spectrum.

 

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