Official Tmobile-Sprint merger discussion thread

[RedSpark]

11 minutes ago, newyork4me said:

I've already read it.  Sprint is trying to use a failing firm argument to have their objectively verifiable competition-reducing merger approved.  It's hard to dispute the porting ratios, the HHI screen, and the spectrum screen, so they are doing the best they can by claiming they need it or else.

It's literally hogwash.  Read the earnings transcript from yesterday and closely pay attention to the words--Sprint is doing just fine.  They are one year into their network improvement plan and they are already noticing it is working.

According to their reported results from the Investor Update:

Postpaid phone net losses of 189,000 compared to net additions of 55,000 in the year-ago period and net losses of 26,000 in the prior quarter. (NOTE: The current quarter included 129,000 net migrations from prepaid to non-Sprint branded postpaid, compared to 44,000 in the prior year and 107,000 in the prior quarter.)

Postpaid phone churn of 1.82 percent compared to 1.68 percent in the year-ago period and 1.84 percent in the prior quarter.

Adjusted free cash flow* of negative $539 million for the quarter compared to negative $240 million in the year-ago period and negative $908 million in the prior quarter.

I don’t see these metrics as encouraging. The business is running out of runway.

[newyork4me]

2 minutes ago, tyroned3222 said:

The network is better that’s a big fact.. what would you say about the future and sprint bad brand image to the public .. how is that fixed ?

EDIT: buddy of mine says they are now outperforming tmo in Phoenix

 

 

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This is really true.  The image is a problem. I happened to have a free line that I was going to cancel to see the changes, and I've now kept it.

Sprint made some good decisions with partnering with laptop makers to add free Sprint LTE though...that'll get people convinced....200 Mbps on their Windows Tablet...$15/mo? Hek yes!

Otherwise, word of mouth.  Same thing T-Mobile went through with their tarnished brand.

1 minute ago, Brad The Beast said:

Could do a re-brand. 

Maybe.  But, also just get people to talk about their experiences.  For the first time, Sprint actually has a different network experience.

[Brad The Beast]

1 minute ago, newyork4me said:

Maybe.  But, also just get people to talk about their experiences.  For the first time, Sprint actually has a different network experience.

ValuJet did it. What we knew as AirTran was formerly ValuJet. 

[newyork4me]

1 minute ago, RedSpark said:

According to their reported results from the Investor Update:

Postpaid phone net losses of 189,000 compared to net additions of 55,000 in the year-ago period and net losses of 26,000 in the prior quarter. (NOTE: The current quarter included 129,000 net migrations from prepaid to non-Sprint branded postpaid, compared to 44,000 in the prior year and 107,000 in the prior quarter.)

Postpaid phone churn of 1.82 percent compared to 1.68 percent in the year-ago period and 1.84 percent in the prior quarter.

Adjusted free cash flow* of negative $539 million for the quarter compared to negative $240 million in the year-ago period and negative $908 million in the prior quarter.

I don’t see these metrics as encouraging.

See quotes from their transcripts.

Quote

" Adjusted EBITDA of $11.9 billion for fiscal 2018 came in toward the high end of our guidance and improved by $846 million year-over-year. While, for the fourth quarter, adjusted EBITDA was $3 billion, an improvement of $183 million year-over-year. "

Quote

Network cash capital expenditures for the full year and fourth quarter of $5 billion and $1.1 billion, respectively, were both up approximately 50% year-over-year as we continue to execute on our Next-Gen Network plan. With our continued deployment of Massive MIMO, and the commercial launch of mobile 5G coming soon, we do not expect material changes to our current level of capital spending in the near term, with cash CapEx in fiscal first quarter expected to be similar to the fiscal third quarter of 2018. Fiscal year 2018 net cash provided by operating activities of $10.4 billion improved by $367 million year-over-year and our fourth quarter results of $2.8 billion improved by $194 million year-over-year.

Adjusted free cash flow of negative $914 million was within our guidance range and declined year-over-year as a result of higher network investments. For the fourth quarter, adjusted free cash flow of negative $539 million was approximately $300 million lower than the year-ago period, due to higher network CapEx and lowering net proceeds of financings related to devices and receivables. We continue to have an adequate liquidity position with approximately $10 billion of general purpose availability, including $7 billion of cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments. In summary, I'm pleased with the team's ability to deliver our fiscal 2018 financial plan.

[RedSpark]

13 minutes ago, newyork4me said:

See quotes from their transcripts.

I’m glad they’re finally spending money on capex. However, the horse is already out of the barn. Customers aren’t coming to Sprint except for discounted lines (or free lines, which is a whole other issue and the subject of several lawsuits). They churn out once the promos are up. Sprint is spending money and people aren’t coming to stay.

Sprint’s churn and debt service are generating feedback loop drains on the business and the liquidity wall it’s facing is a stark reality.

I believe Sprint’s disclosures to the FCC, especially since they’re backed by highly sensitive information. I wish I had the same faith in their Investor disclosures. This doesn’t mean I support a merger. I don’t. But it means Sprint is finally telling the truth.

[newyork4me]

3 minutes ago, RedSpark said:

I believe Sprint’s disclosures to the FCC, especially since they’re backed by highly sensitive information. I wish I had the same faith in their Investor disclosures. This doesn’t mean I support a merger. I don’t. But it means Sprint is finally telling the truth. 

I would never believe a sales-pitch argument to the FCC--that has almost no consequences for misleading statements--over those to investors that are subject to the threat of insurmountable criminal and civil liability.

But, that's just the perspective of a successful businessman and lawyer.

[bigsnake49]

1 hour ago, newyork4me said:

It's a shockingly bad strategy that benefits nobody.  They should not.

Sprint has the ability to become the premier urban carrier at prices lower than the rest.  The money is in urban areas.  VZ and AT&T *need* the urban customers to subsidize their rural builds, so VZ & AT&T will compete on price to keep them.  This lowers prices for rural customers of theirs too.

Sprint trying to do coverage expansion without scale is a dumb idea..they have a mediocre network in urban areas and a poor network in rural areas and have no ability draw customers from the other carriers, reflecting rising prices for all.

They need to add 20,00 new sites to match just T-Mobile and most of T-Mobile's is urban. Good luck with that!

[newyork4me]

2 minutes ago, bigsnake49 said:

They need to add 20,00 new sites to match just T-Mobile and most of T-Mobile's is urban. Good luck with that!

Again, I have to point you to Chicago and New York City as good examples of their density efforts.  They have about a thousand mini-macros coming online in Chicago and 20,000 strand-mount small cells deployed in the NYC area on Altice fiber.  It's cost effective and offers unmatched capacity.

[bigsnake49]

14 minutes ago, newyork4me said:

Again, I have to point you to Chicago and New York City as good examples of their density efforts.  They have about a thousand mini-macros coming online in Chicago and 20,000 strand-mount small cells deployed in the NYC area on Altice fiber.  It's cost effective and offers unmatched capacity.

You know that there is a whole world out there outside NYC and Chicago. There is Dallas and Atlanta and Phoenix and Houston and KC which have a small downtown area and the rest is suburbs and exurbs and that's where their coverage lacks and that's where T-Mobile has been densifying. Are you trying to say they should abandon those areas?

Altice and Cox are the exceptions. Wake me up when Comcast and Charter sign up to do so and when the actual small cells get built.

Edited May 8, 2019 by bigsnake49

[RedSpark]

17 minutes ago, newyork4me said:

I would never believe a sales-pitch argument to the FCC--that has almost no consequences for misleading statements--over those to investors that are subject to the threat of insurmountable criminal and civil liability.

But, that's just the perspective of a successful businessman and lawyer.

I respectfully disagree.

[lilotimz]

1 hour ago, bigsnake49 said:

You know that there is a whole world out there outside NYC and Chicago. There is Dallas and Atlanta and Phoenix and Houston and KC which have a small downtown area and the rest is suburbs and exurbs and that's where their coverage lacks and that's where T-Mobile has been densifying. Are you trying to say they should abandon those areas?

Altice and Cox are the exceptions. Wake me up when Comcast and Charter sign up to do so and when the actual small cells get built.

FWIW, Comcast has  been providing strand mount colocations and backhaul access for small cells in select markets most noticeably in Michigan. Likewise Cox is doing BH access in Nebraska. 

 

[bigsnake49]

40 minutes ago, lilotimz said:

FWIW, Comcast has  been providing strand mount colocations and backhaul access for small cells in select markets most noticeably in Michigan. Likewise Cox is doing BH access in Nebraska. 

 

I knew about Cox but not Comcast. Is Comcast doing anything with their 600MHz spectrum?

[Brad The Beast]

9 minutes ago, bigsnake49 said:

I knew about Cox but not Comcast. Is Comcast doing anything with their 600MHz spectrum?

Comcast has 600MHz spectrum? 

[Tengen31]

Comcast has 600MHz spectrum? 

I believe so

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[Brad The Beast]

1 minute ago, Tengen31 said:

I believe so

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using Tapatalk
 

Oh yeah. They do. So that's who "CC Wireless Investment II" is.

[bigsnake49]

Comcast has some 600Mhz spectrum that only covers their cable footprint.

[Brad The Beast]

2 minutes ago, Brad The Beast said:

Oh yeah. They do. So that's who "CC Wireless Investment II" is.

It doesn't look like they have very much though according to Spectrum Omega. 

[Brad The Beast]

Just now, bigsnake49 said:

Comcast has some 600Mhz spectrum that only covers their cable footprint.

That makes sense. That's why they don't have very much of it.

[bigsnake49]

@lilotimzAre they colocating WiFi and band 41 or CBRS also?

[RAvirani]

1 hour ago, lilotimz said:

FWIW, Comcast has  been providing strand mount colocations and backhaul access for small cells in select markets most noticeably in Michigan. Likewise Cox is doing BH access in Nebraska. 

 

Seattle as well, although deployment appears to be just starting. 

[lilotimz]

1 hour ago, bigsnake49 said:

I knew about Cox but not Comcast. Is Comcast doing anything with their 600MHz spectrum?

I have no idea regarding that at this time since I don't really keep track of Comcast other than their landline op's.

1 hour ago, bigsnake49 said:

@lilotimzAre they colocating WiFi and band 41 or CBRS also?

So far it's primarily Airspan Airstrand 2.5 small cells and possibly Apex DOCSIS 2.5 strand mounts. They do an ethernet handoff for mini macros. 

I know for a fact they, along with Spectrum, Cox, etc have been extensively testing various CBRS LTE and NR equipment in the past year. There's been several 3.5 GHz B48 radios that have come through the FCC recently. 

 

1 hour ago, RAvirani said:

Seattle as well, although deployment appears to be just starting. 

Good to hear! I haven't seen anything for my 30 odd small cells in my area but I know they've been going real quick in other regions. 

[red_dog007]

2 hours ago, Brad The Beast said:

Comcast has 600MHz spectrum? 

http://maps.spectrumgateway.com/comcast-600-mhz.html

Mostly likely won't use it.  Either try and sell it later when deadlines are near, and/or make deals for roaming.  

[Brad The Beast]

4 minutes ago, red_dog007 said:

http://maps.spectrumgateway.com/comcast-600-mhz.html

Mostly likely won't use it.  Either try and sell it later when deadlines are near, and/or make deals for roaming.  

Oooh thanks for the link! I thought T-Mobile had up to 50x50 600MHz but I read it wrong. It's actually 25x25. Derp I'm dumb.

[Tengen31]

Oooh thanks for the link! I thought T-Mobile had up to 50x50 600MHz but I read it wrong. It's actually 25x25. Derp I'm dumb.

Their average is 10x10-15x15. 20x20 in areas where the really lack spectrum. 25x25 is likely very small footprint.

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[Brad The Beast]

2 minutes ago, Tengen31 said:

Their average is 10x10-15x15. 20x20 in areas where the really lack spectrum. 25x25 is likely very small footprint.

Yeah their 25x25 is very tiny. It's only four areas. The majority is 20x20, then 15x15 and a couple of patches of 10x10.