Official Tmobile-Sprint merger discussion thread

[bigsnake49]

9 hours ago, S4GRU said:

And the same was said years ago.  Yet.  Here.  We.  Are.

Still going.  Craig Moffet has been disappointed for years.

Not that it matters.  The merger is very likely to happen.

Look, they admitted in their filing with the FCC (and were asked for further data) that they spent more money on promotions than network investments ( I took advantage of one of them). T-Mobile's uncarrier moves hurt mostly Sprint and deprived them of needed revenue for network expansion. I am not even talking about 5G. They still don't have triband on all their sites, they still have holes in their coverage (no I am not talking about rural coverage). They need to deploy 4x4, QAM 256 on all their sites. Will they be able to keep the network investment up to be a viable network operator in the future? I have my doubts. Can they surprise me? Sure.

You are right though, this merger will happen Then I will complain about how much T-Mobile exaggerates their rural coverage.?

Edited September 15, 2018 by bigsnake49

[bigsnake49]

29 minutes ago, dkyeager said:

I see a small army of consultants for T-Mobile to pull this together.   It could be the bureaucracy fighting back and wanting to kill the merger. Definitely a totally regulated industry.  You would always have to be careful with what you put in writing. 

Many of the Sprint questions are about why the past mergers did not succeed.  I had an interesting discussion with a high ranking industry veteran about the Nextel merger and he put the blame on 9/11 and homeland security forcing greater use of Sprint's 800 MHz for first responder use.

Wow, I had not heard that before but I dismiss it out of hand. The failure of previous mergers was that it was the wrong merger. But I will not open that discussion again. I can guarantee you that if Nextel merged with Verizon the merger including the rebanding would have been concluded in 3-4 years as planned.

Edited September 15, 2018 by bigsnake49

[tyroned3222]

Look, they admitted in their filing with the FCC (and were asked for further data) that they spent more money on promotions than network investments ( I took advantage of one of them). T-Mobile's uncarrier moves hurt mostly Sprint and deprived them of needed revenue for network expansion. I am not even talking about 5G. They still don't have triband on all their sites, they still have holes in their coverage (no I am not talking about rural coverage). They need to deploy 4x4, QAM 256 on all their sites. Will they be able to keep the network investment up to be a viable network operator in the future? I have my doubts. Can they surprise me? Sure. You are right though, this merger will happen Then I will complain about how much T-Mobile exaggerates their rural coverage.[emoji23]

 

Again, the facts are there that Sprint has under spent on the network in the last 3 years.. but now that they are spending we are seeing markets catch up to par not within one year,two years we are seeing it happen within 3 to 6 months and they are upgrading the sites quick to tri band.. San Diego is another example Sprint is right on par with all the carriers and once they get the higher Uplink going they will also be in the low to mid 90s.. so I think at this point of network shouldn't be a concern anymore as Sprint has shown that they will Implement small cells and add Towers where needed.. the question now is can they gained enough subscribers per quarter to recoup the network Investments that they are making over the next three years in case the merger doesn't get approvedAlso, 4 x 4 Mimo from what I have seen Sprint is incorporating it on all of these upgrades so at the end it's just a flip of a switch on the software side to turn that on so I don't think that'll be a big issue

 

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[Trip]

10 hours ago, bigsnake49 said:

I can guarantee you that if Nextel merged with Verizon the merger including the rebanding would have been concluded in 3-4 years as planned.

Clearly spoken as someone who has never dealt with the Mexicans.  Or, at least, didn't deal with them in the previous decade.  During the digital TV transition, there were stations in early 2008, leading up to the 2009 transition date, who had not yet had their applications approved by Mexico.  Applications which were filed in 1998.

- Trip

[bigsnake49]

4 hours ago, Trip said:

Clearly spoken as someone who has never dealt with the Mexicans.  Or, at least, didn't deal with them in the previous decade.  During the digital TV transition, there were stations in early 2008, leading up to the 2009 transition date, who had not yet had their applications approved by Mexico.  Applications which were filed in 1998.

- Trip

Oh I know how to deal with the Mexicans and the Indians and the police chiefs in Florida with the wink, wink brand new Ford Explorers.

[bigsnake49]

14 hours ago, tyroned3222 said:

Again, the facts are there that Sprint has under spent on the network in the last 3 years.. but now that they are spending we are seeing markets catch up to par not within one year,two years we are seeing it happen within 3 to 6 months and they are upgrading the sites quick to tri band.. San Diego is another example Sprint is right on par with all the carriers and once they get the higher Uplink going they will also be in the low to mid 90s.. so I think at this point of network shouldn't be a concern anymore as Sprint has shown that they will Implement small cells and add Towers where needed.. the question now is can they gained enough subscribers per quarter to recoup the network Investments that they are making over the next three years in case the merger doesn't get approvedAlso, 4 x 4 Mimo from what I have seen Sprint is incorporating it on all of these upgrades so at the end it's just a flip of a switch on the software side to turn that on so I don't think that'll be a big issue

 

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I hope you come and check my market. I have been waiting for those network enhancements for way too long. Then for some reason or another they changed the location of the closest site to me from a full build site to MM2. So for me after all the network mismanagement, the merger cannot come soon enough. I am happy that they are doing it but I am gung ho for this merger.

Edited September 16, 2018 by bigsnake49

[Trip]

5 hours ago, bigsnake49 said:

Oh I know how to deal with the Mexicans and the Indians and the police chiefs in Florida with the wink, wink brand new Ford Explorers.

So, your answer is to commit a federal crime by bribing foreign officials?  You do know that felons are prohibited from holding FCC licenses, right?

- Trip

[bigsnake49]

2 hours ago, Trip said:

So, your answer is to commit a federal crime by bribing foreign officials?  You do know that felons are prohibited from holding FCC licenses, right?

- Trip

I prefer to call it marketing expenses.  Or you can do it like Sprint and take 14 years and still not finish it. Sometimes it does not really take "marketing". It takes providing them with brand new radios instead of reprogrammed ones. Yeah they cost a little bit more but it gets done done faster and everybody feels better about their brand new radios.

[Trip]

21 minutes ago, bigsnake49 said:

I prefer to call it marketing expenses.

You can call it "involuntary transfer of assets" but that doesn't make bank robbery any less illegal.

- Trip

[greenbastard]

On 9/16/2018 at 7:25 AM, Trip said:

You can call it "involuntary transfer of assets" but that doesn't make bank robbery any less illegal.

- Trip

You'd be surprised at the number of govt officials selling themselves to O&G companies all over South and West Texas.

The fact is, many foreign companies (including Wal-Mart) have been accused or found guilty of doing business the way Mexicans DO business. If you want stuff to get done, you have to buy the right "services". If you don't, then delays happen.

[bigsnake49]

1 hour ago, greenbastard said:

You'd be surprised at the number of govt officials selling themselves to O&G companies all over South and West Texas.

The fact is, many foreign companies (including Wal-Mart) have been accused or found guilty of doing business the way Mexicans DO business. If you want stuff to get done, you have to buy the right "services". If you don't, then delays happen.

@greenbastard in Sprint's case it did not have to be an outright cash bribe to the police chief. But a charity fund set up by Sprint can donate funds to the police department to replace the police chief's aging police car. All in the name of increasing police response to emergencies. Now Sprint probably did not have enough money to set up such a charity fund.

Edited September 17, 2018 by bigsnake49

[nexgencpu]

This is a pretty damning chart for TMobile. Keep in mind this is sourced by Tmobile themselves.

Link to source..

https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/without-sprint-t-mobile-will-need-38-000-new-cell-sites-to-meet-demand-analysts-say

This might be an exaggeration, but it's probably realistic..

[tyroned3222]

This is a pretty damning chart for TMobile. Keep in mind this is sourced by Tmobile themselves.

Link to source..

https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/without-sprint-t-mobile-will-need-38-000-new-cell-sites-to-meet-demand-analysts-say

 

Ya, I don't know if this is a accurate analysis.. TMO needing 38 thousand more tower to carry their demand ..that would put them ahead of Verizon in term of total tower I believe ... But it does show that Sprint has better chance going into 5G

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[nexgencpu]

5 minutes ago, tyroned3222 said:

Ya, I don't know if this is a accurate analysis.. TMO needed 38 thousand more tower to carry their demand ..that would put them ahead of Verizon in term of total tower I believe

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I'm more taken aback by the pop/speed Sprint will have over Tmobile as solo companies. It's pretty staggering, but not surprising..

[tyroned3222]

I'm more taken aback by the average speed Sprint will have over Tmobile as solo companies. It's pretty staggering, but not surprising..

And those average are only showing up until 2021 ... I'm sure by 2024 Sprint can push those average even higher

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[derrph]

So if I’m reading this chart correctly, from a 5G front Sprint would/bring speeds that will be competitive with the big two. T-Mobile would be absolutely the slowest (sprint of the 5G world). So this is T-Mobile saying “we need Sprint so that we can keep claiming we are the fastest.” Sprint will be the smallest carrier in coverage but will be able to handle their own in the speed dept and could become a threat. 

[tyroned3222]

So if I’m reading this chart correctly, from a 5G front Sprint would/bring speeds that will be competitive with the big two. T-Mobile would be absolutely the slowest (sprint of the 5G world). So this is T-Mobile saying “we need Sprint so that we can keep claiming we are the fastest.” Sprint will be the smallest carrier in coverage but will be able to handle their own in the speed dept and could become a threat. 

My market ( El Paso,tx) is a perfect example: from internal upper management.. TMO has one of their biggest market share in the country here and that demand has slowed the network down tremendously... Even, Sprint is faster here now with far less sites then tmo.. So, that tells me TMO need more spectrum and lot more macro towers/small cells which in return will spike their Network investment by about 20% as per the article just to stay above float it seems as there growth still seems to be tremendous

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[derrph]

2 minutes ago, tyroned3222 said:

My market ( El Paso,tx) is a perfect example: from internal upper management.. TMO has one of their biggest market share in the country here and that demand has slowed the network down tremendously... Even, Sprint is faster here now with far less sites then tmo.. So, that tells me TMO need more spectrum and lot more macro towers/small cells which in return will spike their Network investment by about 20% as per the article just to stay above float it seems as there growth still seems to be tremendous

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Growth in your market is starting it outpace their resources in spectrum. I would like to think that at the rate them gaining customers the increase in capex would also be lateral. 

[NYC126]

Sprint management dropped the ball again. They had the upper hand going into 5G then decided to surrender to Tmobile when that particular company didn't have the spectrum holdings to deploy it. Tmobile has been selling the myth of 5G in that little slice of spectrum they own in the 600mhz which won't cut it. Massa Son surrendered to the Germans for just a couple of board seats and a minority stake, what a fool. Tmobile then would have to go into a bidding war with the twin bells for 3.5ghz-4.7ghz spectrum which they would lose since the two mentioned have a lot of money to burn.

 

[tyroned3222]

Sprint management dropped the ball again. They had the upper hand going into 5G then decided to surrender to Tmobile when that particular company didn't have the spectrum holdings to deploy it. Tmobile has been selling the myth of 5G in that little slice of spectrum they own in the 600mhz which won't cut it. Massa Son surrendered to the Germans for just a couple of board seats and a minority stake, what a fool. Tmobile then would have to go into a bidding war with the twin bells for 3.5ghz-4.7ghz spectrum which they would lose since the two mentioned have a lot of money to burn.

 

I'm sure there's more to it .. pressure from Sprint and softbank investors for one... Also, Masa was feeling the heat/pressure from his own board members.. Sprint wasn't meant to go at it alone. As soon as Masa purchased his percentage he was supposed to merge them with TMO that didn't happen... So, this whole time Sprint posting better number etc starving the network to post profits was all to make this merger possible

 

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[Trip]

15 hours ago, bigsnake49 said:

@greenbastard in Sprint's case it did not have to be an outright cash bribe to the police chief. But a charity fund set up by Sprint can donate funds to the police department to replace the police chief's aging police car. All in the name of increasing police response to emergencies. Now Sprint probably did not have enough money to set up such a charity fund.

What police chief?  I'm talking about the Mexican government.

- Trip

[bigsnake49]

1 hour ago, Trip said:

What police chief?  I'm talking about the Mexican government.

- Trip

And I am talking in general. Sprint's problems in rebanding were not just because of the Mexican government. The Mexican government had not held back rebounding by 10 years. IBEZ is the last step. Is the Riverside County sheriff's office still holding out?

Edited September 18, 2018 by bigsnake49

[dkyeager]

I read the new T-Mobile's strategy quite differently. Never hurts to have more low band capacity - 5g will about double their 600 MHz speeds. In some areas they may have an untouched 600 MHz reserved for 5g. Their strategy also called for making b41 all 5g. Likely would do the same with other bands as quickly as possible. Also to hold on to enough Sprint sites to cover several years growth (a lot of Sprint sites are cosites). For extra 5g capacity they have started buying 28mm (already have 800MHz in lots of Ohio) and likely would continue an auction. Don't forget more 2.5 will come up soon for auction (mostly rural and small cities).

 

Masa's strategy has always been to get critical mass to compete against the duo. I think Sprint has given various options a reasonable try in recent years. More money would always be nice, but marketing strategy has always been the weakness. In business timing is everything. Can't be too early or too late. T-Mobile sucked the air out of the room as far as Sprint is concerned.

 

Masa could likely buy a larger share at a later date if desired.

 

Sprint management dropped the ball again. They had the upper hand going into 5G then decided to surrender to Tmobile when that particular company didn't have the spectrum holdings to deploy it. Tmobile has been selling the myth of 5G in that little slice of spectrum they own in the 600mhz which won't cut it. Massa Son surrendered to the Germans for just a couple of board seats and a minority stake, what a fool. Tmobile then would have to go into a bidding war with the twin bells for 3.5ghz-4.7ghz spectrum which they would lose since the two mentioned have a lot of money to burn.

 

 

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[tyroned3222]

I read the new T-Mobile's strategy quite differently. Never hurts to have more low band capacity - 5g will about double their 600 MHz speeds. In some areas they may have an untouched 600 MHz reserved for 5g. Their strategy also called for making b41 all 5g. Likely would do the same with other bands as quickly as possible. Also to hold on to enough Sprint sites to cover several years growth (a lot of Sprint sites are cosites). For extra 5g capacity they have started buying 28mm (already have 800MHz in lots of Ohio) and likely would continue an auction. Don't forget more 2.5 will come up soon for auction (mostly rural and small cities).
 
Masa's strategy has always been to get critical mass to compete against the duo. I think Sprint has given various options a reasonable try in recent years. More money would always be nice, but marketing strategy has always been the weakness. In business timing is everything. Can't be too early or too late. T-Mobile sucked the air out of the room as far as Sprint is concerned.
 
Masa could likely buy a larger share at a later date if desired.
 

 
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At this point everyone is trying to do whatever it takes to get this merger to get approved... There is a proposed re-brand of the metro pcs brand happening on September 23rd .. new name new plans and all .. seems tmo is adding the finishing touches to get this approved

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[dro1984]

On Bloomberg news service tonight:

Sprint admits customers fleeing due to poor network experience, try to sell the merger to regulators        

Edited September 26, 2018 by dro1984