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Official Tmobile-Sprint merger discussion thread

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Tengen31 Member Level: 4G LTE

Tengen31

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Did you read the reports and listen to the earnings call?
Sprint, while still trying to look like a failing firm to get the merger approved, acknowledged they would have been cash flow positive except for a non-recurring pressure from timing of investment decision.
Sprint also said that without the merger they will continue to invest in network CapEx at the same ~$5 billion/year rate they are on right now...which took them from 0 to 30,000 small cells and 0 to 1,500 MIMO deployment and 60-80% deployment of 2.5GHZ equipment.
Another year of that, and Sprint will look like a different carrier.  Oh, and Sprint management also said that if the merger does not go through, they will refocus their network efforts on major metro areas--which is exactly what I said their strategy should be and would be successful.  This management gets it.
Seriously, everyone should read their financials.  Sprint will do better than ever as a standalone company and force the other carriers to compete like a mofo--urban areas is and has always been what drives pricing pressure.
Accept if Sprint doesn't do anything outside merger areas then people will continue to leave coverage is a big deal and why I support the merger. Plus the fact that I'm using the S9+: and still can't use VOLTE. Both of these things are becoming deal breakers and if the Merger fails and I don't see any signs I'll ever get to use VOLTE I will be switching carriers for good. Sprint can't afford for people to keep leaving.

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Definitely not in vain.  Sprint never would have had the number of customers and value without it to be sold.  It would have been bankruptcy.  But after all these years and effort, it kinda feels like

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And what will this all mean for S4GRU?  We are in a wait and see mode before we decide how to adapt.  Until then, we will be here every day with you all, plotting our wireless destiny. Robert

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Alright.  There may not be a Sprint anymore, but the same rules apply.  Just incessant complaining about the old Sprint is getting old.  People will start checking out because it just will become a co

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Brad The Beast Member Level: eHRPD

Brad The Beast

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2 minutes ago, newyork4me said:

Another year of that, and Sprint will look like a different carrier.

 The network has improved quite a bit over the past year. Is Sprint's image too damaged to recover though?

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Tengen31 Member Level: 4G LTE

Tengen31

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 The network has improved quite a bit over the past year. Is Sprint's image too damaged to recover though?

They could try a name change. Still might not do any good if coverage isn't there. For sure if they go to the extreme of decreaseing coverage.

 

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Brad The Beast Member Level: eHRPD

Brad The Beast

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2 minutes ago, Tengen31 said:

Accept if Sprint doesn't do anything outside merger areas then people will continue to leave coverage is a big deal and why I support the merger.

That's one of my big issues with Sprint. The coverage is just so bad. As much as I love their plans, the coverage is just terrible.

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Tengen31 Member Level: 4G LTE

Tengen31

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That's one of my big issues with Sprint. The coverage is just so bad. As much as I love their plans, the coverage is just terrible.

I'm going on vacation this summer someplace where Sprint is so so and spots with no coverage and no TMO roaming for some reason. Even TMO is so so as I only get B66 and 2. When I lose those I go back to no coverage. I might use TMO when I got on vacation. I'm on the 25 dollar Kickstarter plan and would lose that if I ported my number

 

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Brad The Beast Member Level: eHRPD

Brad The Beast

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1 minute ago, Tengen31 said:

They could try a name change. 

Softbank US or something else?

8 minutes ago, newyork4me said:

Oh, and Sprint management also said that if the merger does not go through, they will refocus their network efforts on major metro areas

3 minutes ago, Tengen31 said:

Still might not do any good if coverage isn't there. For sure if they go to the extreme of decreaseing coverage.

Maybe they need to become the high-speed urban carrier?

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tyroned3222 Member Level: 4G WiMax

tyroned3222

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Did you read the reports and listen to the earnings call?
Sprint, while still trying to look like a failing firm to get the merger approved, acknowledged they would have been cash flow positive except for a non-recurring pressure from timing of investment decision.
Sprint also said that without the merger they will continue to invest in network CapEx at the same ~$5 billion/year rate they are on right now...which took them from 0 to 30,000 small cells and 0 to 1,500 MIMO deployment and 60-80% deployment of 2.5GHZ equipment.
Another year of that, and Sprint will look like a different carrier.  Oh, and Sprint management also said that if the merger does not go through, they will refocus their network efforts on major metro areas--which is exactly what I said their strategy should be and would be successful.  This management gets it.
Seriously, everyone should read their financials.  Sprint will do better than ever as a standalone company and force the other carriers to compete like a mofo--urban areas is and has always been what drives pricing pressure.

Even if cash flow positive.. how is sprint going to cover debt payments that are coming due.. plus a bigger return on investment needs to happen. A churn of 1.81% can’t continue.. and once cash flow positive the numbers are going to be small


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newyork4me Member Level: 1x Advanced

newyork4me

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2 minutes ago, tyroned3222 said:


Even if cash flow positive.. how is sprint going to cover debt payments that are coming due.. plus a bigger return on investment needs to happen. A churn of 1.81% can’t continue.. and once cash flow positive the numbers are going to be small


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Oh, boy.  Sprint has almost $10 billion liquid right now.  And, most of the time, debt is not retired.  It's reissued. 

A little knowledge of business is a dangerous thing, it seems.

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Tengen31 Member Level: 4G LTE

Tengen31

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Even if cash flow positive.. how is sprint going to cover debt payments that are coming due.. plus a bigger return on investment needs to happen. A churn of 1.81% can’t continue.. and once cash flow positive the numbers are going to be small

 

 

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The POJ claims Sprint funding is being looked at so that could be merger positive. I'm staying positive that it will pass. If not then Dish and let dish build the network i be starting where Sprint doesn't cover then add the spectrum to Sprint towers later where Sprint does cover. Then a name change, I wouldn't do Dish mobile 

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RedSpark Member Level: LTE Advanced

RedSpark

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Just now, newyork4me said:

Oh, boy.  Sprint has almost $10 billion liquid right now.  And, most of the time, debt is not retired.  It's reissued. 

Look at Page 20 of the Investor Update which shows its liquidity vs current maturities: https://s21.q4cdn.com/487940486/files/doc_financials/quarterly/2018/Q4/Fiscal-4Q18-Sprint-Quarterly-Investor-Update-FINAL.pdf

Then take a look at its debt schedule here: https://investors.sprint.com/financials/default.aspx

Does that change your opinion?

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RedSpark Member Level: LTE Advanced

RedSpark

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7 minutes ago, tyroned3222 said:


Even if cash flow positive.. how is sprint going to cover debt payments that are coming due.. plus a bigger return on investment needs to happen. A churn of 1.81% can’t continue.. and once cash flow positive the numbers are going to be small


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Sprint has a churn bomb combined with a debt bomb on the horizon. It said that in its FCC Filing.

The engine is leaking oil faster than Sprint can pour it in... and it’s going to get harder to get more oil.

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newyork4me Member Level: 1x Advanced

newyork4me

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Just now, RedSpark said:

Look at Page 20 of the Investor Update which shows its liquidity vs current maturities: https://s21.q4cdn.com/487940486/files/doc_financials/quarterly/2018/Q4/Fiscal-4Q18-Sprint-Quarterly-Investor-Update-FINAL.pdf

Then take a look at its debt schedule here: https://investors.sprint.com/financials/default.aspx

Does that change your opinion?

No.  Because Sprint does not intend on retiring all their debt.  They'll reissue it...corporate notes are a little like credit cards.  Sure the full balance may come due every month ("mature"), but a whole lot of people let the vast majority of it roll over to the next month ("reissue a new corporate note").

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Tengen31 Member Level: 4G LTE

Tengen31

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Sprint has a churn bomb combined with a debt bomb on the horizon. The engine is leaking oil faster than Sprint can pour it in... and it’s going to get harder to get more oil.
What will the combined capex be under New Tmobile?

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newyork4me Member Level: 1x Advanced

newyork4me

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Just now, RedSpark said:

Sprint has a churn bomb combined with a debt bomb on the horizon. It said that in its FCC Filing.

The engine is leaking oil faster than Sprint can pour it in... and it’s going to get harder to get more oil.

This is the vantage point of someone who knows nothing about business.

Tesla also had a massive "debt bomb" this past quarter.  They paid it off and did a new debt issuance.  Happens.  All.  The.  Time.

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tyroned3222 Member Level: 4G WiMax

tyroned3222

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Look at Page 20 of the Investor Update which shows its liquidity vs current maturities: https://s21.q4cdn.com/487940486/files/doc_financials/quarterly/2018/Q4/Fiscal-4Q18-Sprint-Quarterly-Investor-Update-FINAL.pdf

Then take a look at its debt schedule here: https://investors.sprint.com/financials/default.aspx

Does that change your opinion?

He’s talking about a massive restructuring of their debt which is what it would take to make this happen as sprint is 40 billion in debt.. sprint spends 2.6 billon per year servicing their debt( imagine if they could spend that on the network). Sprint churn is raising, gross add shares are falling too

 

 

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newyork4me Member Level: 1x Advanced

newyork4me

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1 minute ago, Tengen31 said:

What will the combined capex be under New Tmobile?

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They are claiming $40 billion in 3 years.

Given Sprint is on track to do about $15 billion on their own, and T-Mobile a little more than that...it's an increase of a few billion.  But I *highly* suspect that's largely a pull-forward and just a smoke screen for timing related sales pitch.

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Tengen31 Member Level: 4G LTE

Tengen31

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They are claiming $40 billion in 3 years.
Given Sprint is on track to do about $15 billion on their own, and T-Mobile a little more than that...it's an increase of a few billion.  But I *highly* suspect that's largely a pull-forward and just a smoke screen for timing related sales pitch.
Sprint is on track to do 15 Mil?

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newyork4me Member Level: 1x Advanced

newyork4me

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Just now, tyroned3222 said:


He’s talking about a massive restructuring of their debt which is what it would to make this happen as sprint is 40 billion in debt.. sprint spends 2.6 billon per year servicing their debt( imagine if they could spend that on the network). Sprint churn is raising, gross add shares are falling too


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And Sprint just cut over $1 billion from ongoing OpEx...they have the money.  No matter how much you might try to deny it.  Sprint will be perfectly fine and thrive on their own.

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newyork4me Member Level: 1x Advanced

newyork4me

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Just now, Tengen31 said:

Sprint is on track to do 15 Mil?

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Billion.  With a B.

They are doing just over $5 billion/year right now.  Over 3 years would be $15 billion.

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Tengen31 Member Level: 4G LTE

Tengen31

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And Sprint just cut over $1 billion from ongoing OpEx...they have the money.  No matter how much you might try to deny it.  Sprint will be perfectly fine and thrive on their own.
He's the question I have can Sprint Owen their own go back to their coverage expansion plans they had planned before the merger?

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Tengen31 Member Level: 4G LTE

Tengen31

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Billion.  With a B.

They are doing just over $5 billion/year right now.  Over 3 years would be $15 billion.

Yeah I meant billion. I misunderstood I thought you meant 15 bil per year

 

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newyork4me Member Level: 1x Advanced

newyork4me

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Just now, Tengen31 said:

He's the question I have can Sprint Owen their own go back to their coverage expansion plans they had planned before the merger?

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They shouldn't.  They should spend the $5 billion in the top 50 markets over the next year.  The following year they should probably split--$2.5 for rural and another $2.5 billion for the major metros.

The money is in urban areas. 

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Brad The Beast Member Level: eHRPD

Brad The Beast

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1 minute ago, Tengen31 said:

He's the question I have can Sprint Owen their own go back to their coverage expansion plans they had planned before the merger?

If they could, why haven't they done it yet? I think that would be a good question to ask also.

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RedSpark Member Level: LTE Advanced

RedSpark

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3 minutes ago, Tengen31 said:

What will the combined capex be under New Tmobile?

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Here’s an FCC Filing submitted to Commissioner Rosenwercel: https://ecfsapi.fcc.gov/file/10419537725960/4-19-19 Rosenworcel Public Ex Parte.pdf

Rural Capex is redacted on Page 2.

However, their promise to “invest nearly $40 Billion into the 5G network and business in the first three years” is not redacted on Page 6.

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Tengen31 Member Level: 4G LTE

Tengen31

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If they could, why haven't they done it yet? I think that would be a good question to ask also.
They at least need to add coverage to i90 in South Dakota including mount Rushmore as everyone else covers that

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